Goliath Versus the Ants: What Opium "Eradication" In Afghanistan Tells Us About the West and the Rest


Sameer Lalwani over at foreign policy insider Steve Clemons' place has a nice, and informative, article about opium production - and trafficking - in Afghanistan. You should read it. But I'm going to step a bit past what he wrote and say the obvious things that often get buried in too many words.

1) Opium eradication isn't working. Every year Afghanistan produces more opium.

2) That's because there's a lot of money in it. For everyone from the farmers, to the traffickers, to the politicians, cops and military who look the other way.

3) The US policy continues to be eradication.

4) That policy isn't going to suddenly start working. Next year there will be even more opium production and trafficking.

5) A lot of that money gets into the hands of nasty unfortunate people like the Taliban and Al-Qa'eda. Remember that saying about gold being the sinews of war? Well, it's true.

6) Eradication (burning down farmer's fields) really pisses off the farmers. That doesn't win you hearts and minds. It is effectively the only cash crop most of them can grow. Eradication, as a policy, says to farmers "you can't have a living." They don't appreciate that.

7) Since the problem isn't farmers getting money from opium production (it's meaningless compared to the profits downstream) the thing to do, as Sameer points out (without saying how) is to get rid of the trafficking.

More After the Jump
8) The way you do that is buy the opium yourself. Use it for legal morphine and codeine (and all the weird opiate related drugs American doctors prescribe instead of the plain vanilla stuff), or hell, burn it. Who cares, the amount of money is not significant compared to all the other money being spent End result - the farmers are still getting their money, aren't supporting the Taliban because the infidels want to destroy their living - and the money isn't in the hands of the traffickers - like the Taliban, the various chieftains, governors and so on. Or al-Qaeda.

It's simple. It'd work. But of course since drugs are EVIL, such a common sense solution will never be adopted. It's interesting to ask why - are Americans, and indeed Europeans, really so inflexible, so indoctrinated with hatred of "drugs", that they can't do what it takes to win? In so many things we see this inflexibility - this decision to keep doing things the way they have always been done, rather than to adapt to the terrain, the people and the enemy.

Our enemies, ironically, despite coming from "traditional" societies, have no such hangups. Not convinced of their own military superiority, knowing that they can lose, having to make do without half the military budget of the entire world behind them, they are able to adapt to what we do, and by refusing to play our game by our rules they are beating us. In Iraq we lose. In Afghanistan we lose. In Lebanon a militia defeated what was supposed to be one of the most elite of all Western-style militaries.

We win the open-field battles, but we are losing the wars. And it is because we can no longer see clearly; and seeing clearly we can no longer adapt. The western military, heir of the greatest military tradition in the world, a Goliath standing astride the world, is being defeated not by David with a sling, but by a swarm of ants who refuse to sit still and be smashed by our mighty club.

And the Afghan opium problem is just another example of how we insist, in the face of failure, on doing the same thing that already failed, over and over again.

It's not that Goliath's day is precisely done, it's that Goliath's refuses to look closely at the foes he fights and that his brain has turned to mush from pride and rigid thinking.

So, for now, the smart money is on the ants.


Ian Welsh August 30, 2007 - 6:10am

A heavy duty Colombian trafficker I met suggested the same thing concerning coca leaf. It's not that he wanted to see this done, just that he thought it would work. The amount of money that the peons get for the base material is miniscule compared to the value of the refined drugs.

The money it would take to buy the world supply is a tiny fraction of our anti-drug budget.

I'd have an additional point for number 5. A lot of that money gets into the hands of evil people in Western governments funding black ops as well.

In fact, every dollar spent on drugs finds its way back into the "legitimate" economy at some point to be of any use.

Look long enough at the War on Drugs and you might decide it's a war our government doesn't want to win.

I did inhale.

Don August 30, 2007 - 8:01am

Basic economics tells us that if the farmers get paid more for something else - I'm not sure what grows well in Afghanistan - then they're very likely to switch. So, especially in the long run, it doesn't have to be opium that they're growing. If the US were to aggressively buy locally produced wheat and fruit, they should be able to drastically reduce opium production. As a bonus, this will drive up the prices for raw drug materials which, in turn, will reduce drug use on the other end.

NateTG August 30, 2007 - 8:47am

There's a lot of money in American agricultural policies, promoted as helping farmers. In fact, the money goes to agribusiness. In addition to the entrenched interests of the Drug War, there's also I think a reluctance to follow a policy anywhere that actually helps farmers, since it would call into question the legitimacy of the structure of American agricultural supports.

nihil obstet August 30, 2007 - 8:36am

only one thing to add. it's nice to believe, as i do, that we'll see reasoned and sensible drug policy in my lifetime. what a change that will be, in so many ways.

chicago dyke August 30, 2007 - 9:05am

As Mark Bowden states in his book A Shadow in the City, opiate addiction is for life. In some fashion a person will be dealing with the dangers of scoring, cleaning up, the law, loss of family, fighting addiction tendencies, etc etc. A person can do smack indefinitely, physiologically heroin itself is benign, but you can overdose and stop your breathing, or heart from the sedative effects. More that likely infection or getting hurt scoring will do you in. The point being made here is that heroin addiction can go on for a life time; people do not deteriorate physiologically as methamphetamine will ravage and decimate.

Of course, the U.S. and British policies will increase the flow of smack. There is no hope of a sane policy of attempting to reduce the hazards to citizens, or the supplier countries.

Here is the counter augment to buying the crop up. Same old argument, if you buy it legally then the price will go up and more production will occur.

Guardian

Senior Nato official
Nato, under pressure to take a more aggressive role, says publicly that its Isaf mission in Afghanistan does not include counter-narcotics but operates in support of the Afghan government. Alliance sources privately blame widespread corruption for hobbling Kabul's efforts. But the key, they insist, is security.
"The more lawless the area the bigger the drug production, so though we've had an explosion of poppy production in Helmand, the more orderly areas are now producing less," says one senior figure. "If you can bring law and order poppy is a problem you can start to grapple with. The Senlis argument that if you buy up the crop everything will be OK is misleading. The crop in Helmand has already quadrupled in a few years. If poppy becomes legal then people will stop growing other crops and start to grow poppy instead. Also illegal poppy is always going to sell for more than a legal crop. And anyway, why would the Taliban let people switch? This is about power and control: you are challenging their authority in another way. They'll tell the farmers: sell poppy to the government and we'll kill you or rape your daughters; sell to us and we won't."

With all this new production there has to be a tidal wave of smack hitting European and North American markets. With a economic depression looming the saying may become "hey buddy can you spare a dime bag"

"There are two types of folk music:
quiet folk music and loud folk music.
I play both."

Dave Alvin

Peter C August 30, 2007 - 9:25am

Wrong Bowden.

Charles, not Mark.

Both are good writers, but quite different.

Chuck wrote the introduction to my book, Contrabando. I doubt my book would have been published had not Bowden taken interest in me and my story and gone to Mexico (on his own dime) to verify that it is in fact, true.

I did inhale.

Don August 30, 2007 - 9:59am

Thanks for the correction. Bowden has genuine Cojóns

"There are two types of folk music:
quiet folk music and loud folk music.
I play both."

Dave Alvin

Peter C August 30, 2007 - 10:29am

their solution has been tried, repeatedly, and hasn't worked. But they want to keep doing it and argue that the Senlis solution won't work without having given it a decent shot. Heck, offer more another crop if you like and then burn it (since there's no distribution).

As for the evils of opiate use... whatever. Drugs are bad. Irrelevant to the argument, however, just as its irrelevant to the legalization argument in the US - since being hard core drug-war isn't working, the argument isn't between "make it illegal and that will stop bad things" and "make it legal and a that will cause far more bad things" - it's between "this ain't working and has never worked" and "why don't we try something else".

Certainly law and order is the ultimate issue - which is why the Taliban was able to stop popppy production (because they could enforce their writ) but in a case of partial anarchy incentives do matter.

And if the Taliban is so all-powerful that they can coerce the entire peasantry, well the war is already lost and we might as well leave.

Ian Welsh August 30, 2007 - 5:20pm

This reminds me of a documentary I saw on PBS called Black Gold (http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/blackgold/). It is about the coffee trade. The entire show is interesting but the relevant part to this topic is the crops that farmers in Ethiopia decide to grow. Ethiopian coffee is considered one of the best in the world. However, because the farmers were getting paid so little for their coffee they started using their land to grow a drug that locals like (I think it was an opiate, but I'm not certain). The farmers could sell the drug for more money and then buy clothes for their children and send them to school.

The documentary follows farmers that have joined Fair Trade co-operatives so that they can cut out a big chain of middle-men in getting their coffee to the roasters. The end result is these farmers get more money for growing coffee than they do for growing drugs and so the choice is easy for them. They grow coffee (make more money).

It's amazing to me that our leaders so often try to set policy in altruistic terms (good vs evil, drugs are bad) than in practical ones (people want food, shelter, clothing, education, to see their children better off than they are). In many things there are simple solutions.

Thomas

Thomas August 30, 2007 - 9:52am

how markets for illegal subtances soon resemble the legal ones.

The big money doesn't go to the man that actually digs dirt and grows the stuff, but instead to the organizer/enabler that gathers the raw product, manufactures and distributes it to the public.

I did inhale.

Don August 30, 2007 - 10:05am

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