Update (6pm Wednesday): The endorsement has now officially occured.

In 2004 Kerry was written off in the nomination fight. He was down, he was out, and he was a laughingstock. One of the things that turned that around for him was the IAFF (International Association of Fire Fighters). They endorsed him and they formed his ground machine and they did one hell of a job (including making it clear to the college kids working for Dean that nomination battles often go to the ground team that can be most, how shall we say, intimidating.)

So the news that the IAFF might be endorsing Dodd is a big deal. Dodd was behind the 2000 FIRE Act, so this may in part be payback, but one does suspect that they wouldn't endorse him if they thought it was completely hopeless.

Biden is the other candidate with long-time labor ties, but the person who needs the unions worst, and who has most agressively courted them over the last few years, is Edwards. He has tirelessly spoken to union members and walked the lines with them, and in part I think it's because he saw what the unions were able to do for Kerry. One union going over isn't that big a deal, but Edwards desperately needs some of the other major unions to endorse (and work for) him because he's going to need them as his ground team. And no one in America has better, or tougher, organizers than the unions. The unions that Edwards has been courting have been the more blue collar labor unions, however, so as they endorse we'll see who they go for. If enough of them don't go for him, he's going to be in a world of hurt - his strategy requires union support and has been predicated on it. If they do go for him, he'll still be in fine shape.

We'll see. A lot, I think, will depend on polling. If Dodd or Edwards starts to break up (or down) that may make the decision of many unions of who they should go with much easier.