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It ain't Just About SubprimeMarkets are tanking today, probably because of the spread of the contagion in loans out of subprime:
This isn't unexpected, the Agonist never thought it would stay only in suprime. In 6 months people will be looking back at 4.6% as a good number. So far this stuff isn't making its way into consumer spending, which actually concerns me more than if it was. With US consumers spending more than they earn, with asset prices dropping, Americans should be cutting back. That which can't go on, doesn't, but the longer you put it off, generally the worst it is when it ends. Borrowing to keep consumer spending increasing when housing prices are due to tank is not a good thing. Prediction: this ain't going to last and when it stops, the economy is going to go under. The "subprime" contagion isn't limited to subprime and it isn't going to stay limited to real-estate, either. Because of how the BLS's business creation model works (it looks backwards) it overestimates job creation going into a recession and it underestimates them coming out of a recession. We're already into the overestimation phase - there is no way real estate is creating the number of jobs the BLS thinks it is. Get read for the ripple effect to turn into some undertow. Ian Welsh July 24, 2007 - 2:56pm
( categories: Analysis | Economics: USA )
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