It ain't Just About Subprime


Markets are tanking today, probably because of the spread of the contagion in loans out of subprime:

Countrywide dropped the other shoe on Tuesday, admitting that the bad loans aren't contained to the subprime niche as many had wished.

Delinquencies on subprime loans widened to nearly 24% in the latest quarter, Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, said Tuesday. See full story.
But the shocker was that delinquencies on prime home equity loans more than doubled to 4.6% in the most recent quarter from 1.8% a year ago, giving the lie to the notion that the problems in the mortgage market could be confined just to the subprime sector, which caters to those with impaired credit.

This isn't unexpected, the Agonist never thought it would stay only in suprime. In 6 months people will be looking back at 4.6% as a good number.

So far this stuff isn't making its way into consumer spending, which actually concerns me more than if it was. With US consumers spending more than they earn, with asset prices dropping, Americans should be cutting back. That which can't go on, doesn't, but the longer you put it off, generally the worst it is when it ends. Borrowing to keep consumer spending increasing when housing prices are due to tank is not a good thing.

Prediction: this ain't going to last and when it stops, the economy is going to go under. The "subprime" contagion isn't limited to subprime and it isn't going to stay limited to real-estate, either. Because of how the BLS's business creation model works (it looks backwards) it overestimates job creation going into a recession and it underestimates them coming out of a recession. We're already into the overestimation phase - there is no way real estate is creating the number of jobs the BLS thinks it is.

Get read for the ripple effect to turn into some undertow.


Ian Welsh July 24, 2007 - 2:56pm
( categories: Analysis | Economics: USA )

Commercial real-estate holding firms, even those who don't deal in spec buildings are starting to hurt (e.g. HRP). Go figure.

Petronius July 24, 2007 - 5:03pm

my MoneyNews subscription from NewsMax.com swears the problem is contained:
http://www.newsmax.com/money/archives/st/2007/7/20/122913.cfm
They would not lie would they? They are the backbench of older conservatives and money is their soul,...please tell me they could not make a mistake!

[jus kiddin' If I were much inclined to blog about outrageous fearmongering and lies, newsmax could be my one stop shop for plenty of material]

for instance, did you know a weak dollar was a good thing?
http://www.newsmax.com/money/archives/st/2007/7/24/114511.cfm

don't those bums take dictation well?

greensmile July 24, 2007 - 6:12pm

I didn't quite follow the Countrywide press release. Have the number of delinquent subprime borrowers increased 24%? Or is that 24% of all subprime loans in their portfolio are now deliquent? If so, that is serious, not just in relation to subprime borrowing history, but in terms of the speed of deterioration of their portfolio.

As to prime loan borrowers, if 4.6% of their portfolio is non-performing, that is very serious. That is a huge and dramatically quick reversal of behavior, calling into question all the basic assumptions of the CDO and CLO models, which do not expect prime borrowers to default at such a high rate. And we aren't even in a recession yet!

Numerian July 24, 2007 - 6:44pm

"Payments were late on 23.71% of subprime mortgage loans, up from 15.33% at the end of the same period in 2006."

chalo July 25, 2007 - 3:19am

Did you know that the Canadian economy is plunging because of the US dollar drop.
I live in rural Canada.
Our economy is the shits because of the US dollar.
Thank you President Bush.
We have lost too many busineses because of your initiaves.
All I can see is that eventually the Chineese and other companies will have to close because we can't afford your products.
I won't buy Chineese.
I won't buy Malaysian.
I buy locally.
Do I pay more? NO!
Get a grip on your economy.
Buy locally.
Forget the Chineese and others.

repressive governments mix administrative clumsiness & inefficiency with authoritarian tendencies.

kimmy July 24, 2007 - 9:56pm

Enough is Enough Scroll down if your interest is Non-Contagious Subprime? area of the economy.

Kimmy, where are you getting your information from? According to the Conference Board of Canada high commodity prices has “Canada’s provincial governments are all expecting surpluses! Spending by all levels of government is expected to continue growing at a strong and steady pace.”

I can’t say manufacturers welcome high dollars because that hurts their competitive edge. But most adjust because US products used in their manufacturing process have become cheaper to incorporate. Labour rates of pay do not however, decrease with the price of components. But the comparative advantage of the cheaper materials do somewhat offset the expensive labour rates. We have had to adjust our pricing upward of the boats we manufacture, and have remained competitive mostly because we don’t produce widget-type yachts, all of ours are custom-built and/or we take client’s wish lists into consideration when we’re building their boats for them. Overall, we can’t see there will be a return to the cheaper Canadian dollar. For many years, the Canadian dollar was undervalued, and it now is approaching being overvalued. I expect the Canadian government will step in when it reaches that stage and make necessary adjustments. It has been allowed to float for quite some time, but it's not beyond my imagination that the Canadian Central Bank would return to a pegged currency with more favourable terms to our manufacturing industry.

we can't afford your products

Reverse your thinking about the high Canadian dollar because products in the United States are now cheaper to buy, not more expensive. Our dollar buys more, not less. Put another way, as our dollar decreases, US products are more expensive. Smaller dollars buy fewer goods, bigger dollars buy more! That holds true for any currency albeit British pounds sterling, EU dollars, Yen and US greenbacks. etc.

canuck July 25, 2007 - 4:31am

...I can say that every man has his price. Mine's jes cheaper than most.

Gordon July 25, 2007 - 9:44pm

Southern ontario has been really hammered. Huge manufacturing losses. The increase in the dollar has really hurt a lot of peeople.

Ian Welsh July 25, 2007 - 11:03pm

New York Times, By Vikas Bajaj, July 25

Countrywide Financial, the nation’s largest mortgage lender, said yesterday that more borrowers with good credit were falling behind on their loans and that the housing market might not begin recovering until 2009 because of a decline in house prices that goes beyond anything experienced in decades.

The news from Countrywide, widely seen as a bellwether for the mortgage market, initiated a sell-off in the stock market, which is at its most volatile in more than a year. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 30.53 points, or 2 percent, to 1,511.04, its biggest one-day drop in nearly five months. The dollar dropped to a new low against the euro, edging closer to $1.40 to 1 euro. Stocks opened sharply lower in Japan this morning.

The slumping housing market has become the biggest worry for the stock market, which just four days ago set records, because of its potential impact on the broader economy and financial system.

Countrywide’s stark assessment signaled a critical change in the substance and tenor of how housing executives are publicly describing the market. Just a couple of months ago, some executives were predicting a relatively quick recovery and saying that most home loans would be fine with the exception of those made to borrowers with weak credit who stretched too far financially.

Executives at Countrywide had for some time been more skeptical than others but the bluntness of their comments yesterday surprised many on Wall Street. In a conference call with analysts that lasted three hours, Countrywide’s chairman and chief executive, Angelo R. Mozilo, said home prices were falling “almost like never before, with the exception of the Great Depression.”


"Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity."

Raja July 25, 2007 - 7:25am

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