Free "Trade"


The doctrine of comparative advantage is perhaps the only settled doctrine in the discipline of Economics. It makes sense - if a country can produce something with less inputs relative to another country (note that comparative advantage is relative, you can be better at producing everything, and it still works), if it specializes in producing that good or service, and other countries specialize in producing their goods or services, then they trade them back and forth, everyone's better off.

But economists seem incapable of reading Ricardo's actual essay. Ricardo notes that because capital was relatively immobile in his time, relative advantages mattered - you can't just take the capital and send it to the other country. This is why relative advantage matters in the theory, not absolute. If Britain has a 2/1 advantage in machine parts; and a 3/2 advantage in brewing lager over Norway, then it makes sense for Norway to brew the lager, and Britain to make the machine parts, even though Britain is better than both, because the capital needs to be doing something.

But if capital is mobile, then why not do it all in Britain? Oh sure, that means that Norway will start running down its stores of value (ie. selling assets and borrowing in order to pay for machine parts and lager), but in the short to medium run, there's no reason why capital shouldn't go to the location with the highest absolute (not relative) advantage.

The doctrine of comparative advantage, to work, requires that capital and labor be relatively immobile. Or rather, that capital and labor be equally mobile. If people could just move wherever they wanted it might also work. Note that the last "free trade and capital flow" era - the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, also had massive immigration flows.

Now all of this assumes you have free trade anyway. People act as if the only things that matter are tariffs and subsidies, and that if you have neither, you have free trade. It is to laugh.

Manipulating your currency is the modern form of trade subsidization. China spends hundreds of billions of dollars a year keeping their currency lower comapared to the dollar than it would be normally. Japan likewise engages in massive intervention (through interest rates, primarily). The US, meantime, used monetary policy to try and push the dollar down - which worked against countries who weren't willing to massively intervene.

After NAFTA went into force, the Canadian government effectively stealth devaluated the Canadian dollar by about 25%. You didn't think that dollar crash happened because the Bank of Canada didn't want it to happen, did you? Funnily enough, that made trade between the US and Canada increase a great deal. Imagine that. Funny how a deal like NAFTA works when you make it work.

Now I support free trade. One day, during my life, I hope to see some of it.

But I don't confuse what we have right now with free trade; nor am I incapable of reading Ricardo and understanding that the conditions under which he considered free trade to work do not exist right now; nor do I think that free capital flows for speculation have anything to do with TRADE.

The economics profession has a very bad track record of giving advice in the real world. You can ask, say, Russia about that or you can compare and contrast Spain and New Zealand.

Trade isn't a panacea and "everyone believes it" isn't an argument and the fact that the vast majority of economists believe in comparative advantage means nothing - heck, I believe in the theory of comparative advantage, just like I believe in the laws of geometry. But I don't believe that comparative advantage works when you have massive free capital flows and massive currency manipulation and that's the regime "free trade" is used to justify.

Free trade has been hijacked by people who want free movement of money so that they can speculate wildly. Trading currencies is not "trade", it's speculation - gambling, and it undermines the utility of currencies as feedback mechanisms and has led to financial panics, contagion, and increased income inequality in the core economies.


Ian Welsh April 7, 2007 - 12:33am
( categories: Economics | Globalization )

While conservatives so furiously thump their chests and proclaim their patriotic concern for stopping the moral collapse of America, much of conservative philosophy comes from thinkers and philosophers of the British Empire, including some who lived at the time of the American Revolution and utterly detested the "rabble" in the colonies -- such as Adam Smith. In fact, The U.S. maintained a working war plan – RED -- to fight against Perfidious Albion right into the 1930s.

Who was Adam Smith? He was a tutor – at a very lucrative salary – of the stepson of Charles Townshend, who authored the 1760s Townshend Acts imposing importation taxes on several articles, such as glass, paper and tea, brought into America. Smith’s student was the young Duke of Buccleuch, who later in life was appointed to the Order of the Thistle, and to the Order of the Garter.

Wikipedia describes the latter as

an English order of chivalry dating from medieval times. It is the world's oldest national order of knighthood, and the pinnacle of the British honours system. Its membership is extremely limited compared to most modern orders, consisting of the Sovereign and not more than 25 full members.


(The Thistle admits only 16 Lords of the realm, besides the king or queen.) The Duke of Buccleuch played a crucial role in promoting Smith and Smith’s ideas later, in the 1770s.

So, Smith was patronized by the very highest levels of the British oligarchy.

Today, Adam Smith is seen as the father of Anglo-American capitalism. In fact, after the Americans won their independence, there were two opposing forms of capitalism that vied for domination through the entirety of the nineteenth century, and well into the twentieth. One was British free trade, the other was known as the American System.

Even a casual reading of Alexander Hamilton’s Report on Manufactures, and Report on Banking reveals that Hamilton strongly believed that speculative excesses must be curbed to the degree possible, and credit steered to the productive enterprises that would develop and utilize the resources of the young republic. So, it was not exactly the free market of Adam Smith or Friedrich von Hayek that the Founders established. There was plenty of room for private enterprise, but it was not entirely free. The new federal government was explicitly invested with the power to “To coin money, and to regulate the value thereof.” This is a direct repudiation of Adam Smith’s invisible hand, right there in Article I, Section 8.

It is only by eradicating the American System that the oligarchs have been able to regain control of the value of money, allowing free speculation. For example, according to the latest Quarterly Report from the Bank for International Settlements, dated March 2007, trading in financial derivatives alone as reach a level of $1,200.0 trillion ($1.2 quadrillion) every year. That compares to a U.S. GDP $12.456 trillion (from Table B-1 of the 2007 Economic Report of the President), and a world GDP that has yet to surpass $50 trillion.

So, conservatism has always been an oligarchical construct, nurtured and imposed to do battle with the notion that the common people can order and govern their own economic affairs. That’s what people have to be taught: that conservatism is designed to DESTROY the founding principles of the United States. Unfortunately, British Free Trade is so predominant today, that even progressives unthinkingly regurgitate its key tenets.

Regarding Riccardo, he was debunked as just another British oligarchical theorist by American System economist Henry C. Carey.

Tony Wikrent April 7, 2007 - 9:46am

What is the problem with China’s spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year keeping their currency lower compared to the dollar than it would be normally? Chinese simply put a premium on the purchase of their goods in substitution for American ones. That sounds terrific, but it is not that much so. For a premium on Chinese goods is a gift from Chinese producers to American consumers, who can with their increased resources invest a greater amount of savings in improved education, that is, in the formation of human capital. At the end of the day, the Chinese government will have to spend the dollars they have so expensively purchased in order to send their youth to American universities. If China challenges the comparative advantage, say, by trying to make electronic kits, for instance, for which they possibly don’t have a comparative advantage, what they’ll simply get is another allocation of advantages, in which education is a new, higher advantage for America. And they will be worse off as compared with how they’d be in the free trade.

And what is the problem with the US’s pushing the dollar down - which worked against countries who weren‘t willing to massively intervene? Those countries are the Europeans, aren’t they? America simply puts a premium on the purchase of American goods and services, including education in substitution for European ones. Thus, Europe, which enjoys increased resources from trade with both China and America, will in a generation or two catch up the American capacity to produce science and technology.

And if China and America believe that their policies are the best possible ones, they’re welcome in their beliefs.

janus April 8, 2007 - 8:16am

Then it's not free trade and it has nothing to do with comparative advantage and those who say it is, should shut up and stop saying that protectionism is bad, or tariffs are bad, because they're engaging in them - and why don't we just skip all the BS and get back to straight protectionism.

And no, all trade and economic policies are not neutral or good, some of them are very harmful. This isn't a case of "different strokes for different folks". This is a case where real people are being impoverished as a result of these policies; policies which are sold as both inevitable and good when they are neither; policies which are sold as based on a theory that does not apply.

Policies that are sold on lies, in other words, and which enrich those who lie about them and harm many others.

Ian Welsh April 8, 2007 - 1:19pm

How do you explain, then, American specialization in education at the university level and scientific journals vis-à-vis the Chinese specialization in labor-intensive manufactures? African specialization in depleting their forests vis-à-vis the European specialization in expensive furniture?

I agree that free trade is the exception rather than the rule. Yet, human rights are also the exception rather than the rule. Is this sufficient reason to shut up and stop talking of human rights? Actually, the boot is on the other foot.

From your opening post and subsequent comment I infer your opinion to be, that in spite of their talk about free trade the developed countries implement protectionist policies that fill the pockets of oligarchs in those countries while seriously harm the less developed countries. As I conclusion you seem to believe that protectionist policies by the less developed countries are not that bad.

No protectionism is good. It only serves to fill the pockets of someone that does not as much contribute to the general wellbeing. American protectionism fills the pockets of the American oligarchs - plus those of some small-producer constituencies that supply huge electoral support - and this is harmful for together the American public at large and the global economy. Yet, it’s difficult to find much merit in protectionist policies as implemented, say, by Zimbabwe. Being intent to fill the pockets of Robert Mugabe and associates doesn’t render protectionism any better.

janus April 8, 2007 - 3:55pm

yesterday I read several articles about money.

Money is a rip off!

22 short chapters about money

President Lincoln’s greenback and his belief that money should be controlled by the countries that issue it not private bankers. Lincoln was absolutely correct, the private bankers should not have gained control over US currency.

Money should not be viewed as a commmodity in itself.

A lot of people in the world would like to see monetary reform.

The US Federal reserve is privately owned and controls the amount of money in circulation. Houses didn't really become more expensive...the value of money decreased.

canuck April 8, 2007 - 5:56pm

...alot of the economics posts around here are wonk-talk.

I think the important point is that the "free trade" agreements are mostly about free movement of capital. The oligarchs can move their money overseas, buy the factory and hire workers at pitiful rates. That throws a monkey wrench into the established theories of "comparative advantage". And I just reached (maybe passed) the limits of my ability to decipher econo-speak.

My own view (like the first poster) is that not all protectionism is necessarily bad. Establishing a new industry is one example. Another might be that strawberries are much cheaper to grow in Chile, but the cost of transportation (they have to be flown) can be, er, volatile. With oil at $100 / barrel, it might have been better to hang onto that prime strawberry growing land instead of turning it into strip malls.

Most of the time, though, protectionism is politically motivated (propping up teetering old industries) and ecomonically harmful.

Gordon April 8, 2007 - 8:44pm

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