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Free "Trade"The doctrine of comparative advantage is perhaps the only settled doctrine in the discipline of Economics. It makes sense - if a country can produce something with less inputs relative to another country (note that comparative advantage is relative, you can be better at producing everything, and it still works), if it specializes in producing that good or service, and other countries specialize in producing their goods or services, then they trade them back and forth, everyone's better off. But economists seem incapable of reading Ricardo's actual essay. Ricardo notes that because capital was relatively immobile in his time, relative advantages mattered - you can't just take the capital and send it to the other country. This is why relative advantage matters in the theory, not absolute. If Britain has a 2/1 advantage in machine parts; and a 3/2 advantage in brewing lager over Norway, then it makes sense for Norway to brew the lager, and Britain to make the machine parts, even though Britain is better than both, because the capital needs to be doing something. But if capital is mobile, then why not do it all in Britain? Oh sure, that means that Norway will start running down its stores of value (ie. selling assets and borrowing in order to pay for machine parts and lager), but in the short to medium run, there's no reason why capital shouldn't go to the location with the highest absolute (not relative) advantage. The doctrine of comparative advantage, to work, requires that capital and labor be relatively immobile. Or rather, that capital and labor be equally mobile. If people could just move wherever they wanted it might also work. Note that the last "free trade and capital flow" era - the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, also had massive immigration flows. Now all of this assumes you have free trade anyway. People act as if the only things that matter are tariffs and subsidies, and that if you have neither, you have free trade. It is to laugh. Manipulating your currency is the modern form of trade subsidization. China spends hundreds of billions of dollars a year keeping their currency lower comapared to the dollar than it would be normally. Japan likewise engages in massive intervention (through interest rates, primarily). The US, meantime, used monetary policy to try and push the dollar down - which worked against countries who weren't willing to massively intervene. After NAFTA went into force, the Canadian government effectively stealth devaluated the Canadian dollar by about 25%. You didn't think that dollar crash happened because the Bank of Canada didn't want it to happen, did you? Funnily enough, that made trade between the US and Canada increase a great deal. Imagine that. Funny how a deal like NAFTA works when you make it work. Now I support free trade. One day, during my life, I hope to see some of it. But I don't confuse what we have right now with free trade; nor am I incapable of reading Ricardo and understanding that the conditions under which he considered free trade to work do not exist right now; nor do I think that free capital flows for speculation have anything to do with TRADE. The economics profession has a very bad track record of giving advice in the real world. You can ask, say, Russia about that or you can compare and contrast Spain and New Zealand. Trade isn't a panacea and "everyone believes it" isn't an argument and the fact that the vast majority of economists believe in comparative advantage means nothing - heck, I believe in the theory of comparative advantage, just like I believe in the laws of geometry. But I don't believe that comparative advantage works when you have massive free capital flows and massive currency manipulation and that's the regime "free trade" is used to justify. Free trade has been hijacked by people who want free movement of money so that they can speculate wildly. Trading currencies is not "trade", it's speculation - gambling, and it undermines the utility of currencies as feedback mechanisms and has led to financial panics, contagion, and increased income inequality in the core economies. Ian Welsh April 7, 2007 - 12:33am
( categories: Economics | Globalization )
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