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The Resurgance of Al-QaedaGiven that the Agonist was down for about half the day I'm going to pass on today's "What Matters and Why", it will return tomorrow. However I want to point readers to two articles by the Asia Times - one on Al-Qaeda's resurgence, and the other on the Taliban and its deal with Pakistan. A lot of this stuff is ambiguously sourced, so take with a grain of salt, but overall the Asia Times has done good work on both groups. The Taliban has made a deal with Pakistan, not just for a truce, as previously reported, but for assistance against the Kabul government. Pakistan doesn't like the pro-Indian Kabul government, and after all, the Taliban was always their tool. This means not only do they have a firm base of operations, but that they will have significantly more resources to push with. More Major Points After the Jump Al-Qaeda apparently will have nothing to do with the Pakistan government and as a result the cloese cooperation between the Taliban and al-Qaeda is beginning to come to an end. Al-Qaeda's leadership is considering a move to somewhere in the Middle East but right now operational realities (Iran being unwilling to let them travel through them) are causing problems. Al-Qaeda has reconstituted its fundraising arm and has also brought most of the regional Al-Qaeda's under centralized control again, including Al-Qaeda Iraq. (Personally I've always figured that al-Qaeda arranged Zarqawi's death. He was doing things that Bin Laden had told him explicitly not to do. That's not a healthy habit, and I think it caught up with him.) Al-Qaeda has finished work on chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and has created a missile (the Abeer, named after the 14 year old girl raped and killed by American soldiers) with which to deploy them. I have trouble believeing the nuclear part and am dubious about the biological as well, I must admit. But who knows, things can "fall of the back of a truck" when certain parties want them to. Al-Qaeda and Saudi Arabia have a detente. Saudi Arabia leaves Al-Qaeda alone and lets them train in SA and travel through there (though the high level ones probably shouldn't chance it) and al-Qaeda does no attacks. Don't know if this is true, but it makes a certain amount of sense. There was a period where AQ was hitting Saudi Arabia a lot, so there are two alternatives, the Saudis managed to suppress al-Qaeda in the kingdom, or they made a detente. And finally, that having largely reconstituted al-Qaeda intends to be very active this year, including making some high profile attacks. If all of this is true, the US and its allies are going to pay a big price for taking their eye off the ball and not putting al-Qaeda down when they could have. There are consequences to ideological stupidity and rampant incompetence and we may be about to reap them. Ian Welsh March 1, 2007 - 6:15pm
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