The Resurgance of Al-Qaeda


Given that the Agonist was down for about half the day I'm going to pass on today's "What Matters and Why", it will return tomorrow. However I want to point readers to two articles by the Asia Times - one on Al-Qaeda's resurgence, and the other on the Taliban and its deal with Pakistan. A lot of this stuff is ambiguously sourced, so take with a grain of salt, but overall the Asia Times has done good work on both groups.

The Taliban has made a deal with Pakistan, not just for a truce, as previously reported, but for assistance against the Kabul government. Pakistan doesn't like the pro-Indian Kabul government, and after all, the Taliban was always their tool. This means not only do they have a firm base of operations, but that they will have significantly more resources to push with.

More Major Points After the Jump

Al-Qaeda apparently will have nothing to do with the Pakistan government and as a result the cloese cooperation between the Taliban and al-Qaeda is beginning to come to an end. Al-Qaeda's leadership is considering a move to somewhere in the Middle East but right now operational realities (Iran being unwilling to let them travel through them) are causing problems.

Al-Qaeda has reconstituted its fundraising arm and has also brought most of the regional Al-Qaeda's under centralized control again, including Al-Qaeda Iraq. (Personally I've always figured that al-Qaeda arranged Zarqawi's death. He was doing things that Bin Laden had told him explicitly not to do. That's not a healthy habit, and I think it caught up with him.)

Al-Qaeda has finished work on chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and has created a missile (the Abeer, named after the 14 year old girl raped and killed by American soldiers) with which to deploy them. I have trouble believeing the nuclear part and am dubious about the biological as well, I must admit. But who knows, things can "fall of the back of a truck" when certain parties want them to.

Al-Qaeda and Saudi Arabia have a detente. Saudi Arabia leaves Al-Qaeda alone and lets them train in SA and travel through there (though the high level ones probably shouldn't chance it) and al-Qaeda does no attacks. Don't know if this is true, but it makes a certain amount of sense. There was a period where AQ was hitting Saudi Arabia a lot, so there are two alternatives, the Saudis managed to suppress al-Qaeda in the kingdom, or they made a detente.

And finally, that having largely reconstituted al-Qaeda intends to be very active this year, including making some high profile attacks.

If all of this is true, the US and its allies are going to pay a big price for taking their eye off the ball and not putting al-Qaeda down when they could have. There are consequences to ideological stupidity and rampant incompetence and we may be about to reap them.


Ian Welsh March 1, 2007 - 6:15pm

tell me again how Pakistan is our good friend and ally against the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and terrorism?

I think I've said it before: Musharraf knows which side of the bread the butter's on....he's playing the US to get money and equipment, while actually not doing anything concrete against the AQ forces in the tribal lands.

Add to the mix the Pakistani Intelligence (ISI), and their long history of feeding the terrorists and fighers in Jammu&Kashmir, and you have a situation where we're giving bullets to people who are shooting them back at us.

I *really* want to say 'not my administration, not my problem'....but I'm not as irreponsible as those morons. Now, if only could get my senators to grow a little spine, to stand up to Bush/Cheney, and demand more accountability....

-5.75,-4.05 "I am in earnest; I will not equivocate; I will not excuse; I will not retreat a single inch; and I will be heard."
William Lloyd Garrison
US abolitionist & editor (1805 - 1879)

justadood March 1, 2007 - 6:49pm

Are they a legitimate independent news source or are they a propaganda arm of a totalitarian communist government? I don't know the answer to these questions. I never bought the "one country two systems" argument. I think it is a safe assumption that there is no free press in China. On the other hand, Asia Times has published articles critical of the Chinese government on the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Maybe that was an anomoly where they were given a pass by the government to bolster their bona fides.

Mark March 1, 2007 - 11:10pm

Asia Times. However their reporting on Pakistan and Afghanistan has been excellent. The writers are also widely published in other newspapers and sites. I can't remember if it was gandalf or maub who said to be cautious of the Chinese related stories.(actually maybe it was you :)))

btw one of their forum rules:

7. Discussion on extant Asian monarchy is strictly forbidden.

Tina March 1, 2007 - 11:27pm

The second Asia Times article, about Pakistan and the Taliban, doesn't quite add up for me.

It seems to have a lot of big logical leaps in it and ascribes some odd motives to the actors it's discussing.

My quick rundown of the claims made in the article, with some comments:

The Taliban want to capture Kabul.
[Of course they do, but are they really mobilising for a serious all-out attack on the capital this year? That doesn't make military sense to this armchair general]

Pakistan wants to assist the Taliban to achieve 'total victory' in Afghanistan.
[This somewhat surprising assertion is qualified later in the article]

Support from Pakistan - specifically sensors that can turn SAM-7s into anti-aircraft missiles effective against US fighters - will enable the Taliban to overcome US airpower in an assault on Kabul.
[Again, does this make any military sense? Can somebody with knowledge comment? As a rank amateur I'd imagine that this capability, if it indeed exists, would be better used tactically by small groups taking out US planes in skirmish situations - far less exposure]

Pakistan has been coerced by the US into not supporting the Taliban - so this is why it is taking this opportunity to support the Taliban.
[This part of the argument made no sense to me at all - particularly, why now? Is Pakistan gambling that Afghanistan has really been militarily forgotten? and that the consequences for their relationship with the US are suddenly less important? Why?]

Pakistan's immediate aim is in fact not 'total victory', but the possibility of becoming a powerful broker between the Taliban and NATO.
[But they could assume this role without explicitly jeopardising their relationship with the US. If they back the Taliban in an outright assault on Kabul, even covertly - and it can't be that covert if the Asia Times knows about it - then in current US thinking they won't be a broker for anything - they'll be yet another enemy power]

Pakistan's ultimate aim is to install a pro-Islamabad government in Kabul.
[Understandable in a way, but Afghanistan is set to be a weak state for the forseeable future whether or not Pakistan supports the Taliban or future governments are friendly to Islamabad. So I'm not sure what Pakistan really stands to gain here. is there something more at stake that I'm missing?]

In this, Pakistan is relying on playing different Taliban factions off against one another - specifically, Dudallah against Mullah Omar.
[this sounds like another gamble in a chain of questionable assumptions, all of which would have to work out for this supposed Pakistani strategy to come good. Would a state in the precarious situation of Pakistan stake so much on such a chain of uncertainties?]

billy68 March 2, 2007 - 3:30am

What's the US going to do? Right after 9/11 if Pakistan had stood up the US would have unleashed the B52's. Is it going to do that now? And what's the real risk? Pakistan just denies everything. Who's going to believe the US about such a thing? No one, not even most US citizens anymore.

Ian Welsh March 2, 2007 - 2:13pm

This
Al-Qaeda and Saudi Arabia have a detente. Saudi Arabia leaves Al-Qaeda alone and lets them train in SA and travel through there (though the high level ones probably shouldn't chance it) and al-Qaeda does no attacks. Don't know if this is true, but it makes a certain amount of sense.

doesn't sound quite right to me from what I've read. See for example, this recent news:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/28/world/middleeast/28saudi.html

Teenager Dies, Raising Toll to 4 in Attack at Saudi Site
By HASSAN M. FATTAH
Published: February 28, 2007

...The Saudi daily Al Watan, quoting a witness, said three gunmen with covered faces separated the men from the women and children, then fired on the men. Still, the authorities would not call the attack terrorism, pending further investigation. A security official, however, said the list of likely suspects was being narrowed.

“If it is Al Qaeda, then we know who they are,” he said.

The attack was a stark reminder of the risks many Westerners living in Saudi Arabia still face though many had grown confident that terrorism was under control and that life was returning to normal.

Saudi security officials have continued to arrest suspects, raid militant hide-outs and strengthen defenses. That has turned some parts of Saudi Arabia’s cities into virtual fortresses surrounded by concrete blast walls and barriers. Late last year, militants led a failed attack on the Abqaiq oil processing plant in the oil-rich eastern part of the country, but were thwarted when guards opened fire on them as they approached the perimeter fence...

jeffrey March 2, 2007 - 8:47am

from the Bush Administration to the Saudis to the Pakistanis, when I stop thinking of any of the parties involved as being monolithic and homogenous and think of them instead as each being a divided community of voices, each voice struggling for control.

Escher Sketch March 2, 2007 - 12:22pm

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