The wildcard in all of this is the reaction and fate of Somaliland (See map http://www.somalilandgov.com/slmap.htm) in the North of Somalia from Djibouti along the Red Sea and the eastern Ethiopian border. It seceded from Somalia many years ago and has its own democratically-elected government and its own military forces, but is not recognized by anyone but Britain (even though Bush43 gives lip service to support of democracies...but apparently only in nations with oil). It is certain that its leader, President Dahir Rayale Kahin, views the Somali IUC as his worst nightmare.
If the IUC is to rule the whole horn of Africa it must retake Somaliland which will not go willingly. If it jumps in early as an ally of Ethiopia and cuts off sea and air supply lines to the Somali IUC via the Red Sea zone from Eritrea, Egypt and Saudi Arabia (https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/maps/er-map.gif), the conflict could expand greatly. Somaliland troops are Muslim and could help Ethiopia retain control of the Ogaden region (https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/maps/et-map.gif) and the port of Djibouti it leads to.
We will have to see if Meles Zenawi is smart enough to convince President Kahin, that Somaliland's survival depends on a swift alliance with Ethiopia which in turn could provide national recognition and military supplies, equipment and support
An alliance with Kenya would be a good idea for Zenawi to craft as well, given the stated IUC desire to include parts of Kenya in its caliphate.
It would be nice also, if Bush43 got smart enough, for once, to encourage and support such alliances, recognize the Somaliland democratic nation, move U.S. troops out of Eritrea (even though we still have an electronic intercept station there in Asmara focused on the Arab and Persian nations) and put them in the Djibouti area or even in Somaliland. But, I doubt Bush43 has the smarts to do any of that, and his greed factor (OIL!) is not activated by democratic Somaliland which is already a textbook example of the Muslim democracy Bush43 crusaded for and utterly failed to impose in sectarian Iraq.
Stand by for another disaster as Bush43 fiddles and Saudi Arabia pays for the imposition of another extremist Islamist theocracy using thousands of Muslim volunteers; most of whom probably got their classroom military training in Saudi financed and staffed madrassas worldwide with the most promising and fanatic cadres then getting field training and live fire exercises in Iraq...against U.S. troops.
If you think we are winning the war on terror...think again. We have only succeeded in expanding its scope and Muslim eagerness to participate in it by Bush43's lying invasion of Iraq coupled with the astoundingly stupid failure to actually occupy and control conquered Iraq.
Trained and battle-hardened Afghan and al Qaeda cadres have returned to Afghanistan to successfully fight NATO and U.S. forces. Reportedly, there are enough al Qaeda-trained foreign fighters left over to help the Somali IUC attempt to impose a caliphate on Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somaliland...and Eritrea, its deluded ally which controls passage chokepoints in the Red Sea.
Can the IUC do it all? Not without massive help and more idiocy from Bush43. With control of the Red Sea a far goal for a greater Sunni caliphate, that help is probable unless the Saudis and others are persuaded it is too dangerous for them. One wonders who will do that?

David Bier
CADRE Intel Mgr
techadvisor@helloworld.com
http://groups.google.com/group/publicintel