The Best Thing You'll Read on the Iraqi Study Group


Matt Taibbi:

We may soon have to face this fact: With the midterm elections over, and George Bush already a lame duck, the Iraq war is no longer an urgent problem to anyone on the Hill who matters. The Democrats are in no hurry to end things because it will benefit them if Iraq is still a mess in '08; just as they did this fall, they'll bitch about the war without explicitly promising to end it at any particular time. George Bush has already run his last campaign and he's not about to voluntarily fuck up his legacy with a premature surrender or a humiliating concession to Syria or Iran. At least publicly, John McCain is going to head into '08 siding with those in the military who believe the problem is a lack of troops.

For the Iraq disaster to end, someone among these actors is going to have to make a difficult decision -- admit defeat, invite a bloody civil war, lose face before a pair of rogue terror-supporting states -- and it's obvious that none of them is ever going to do that, not until there's absolutely no choice.

Matt's larger analysis of how Washington works is both sad and all too true. There are no votes to be earned or lobbyists' checks to be cashed, as far as most politicians are concerned, by solving real problems. They are, by and large insulated from the consequences of their actions. Nobody most of them know are dying in Iraq. (There's a reason why Webb is one of the few Senators whose anger at Bush seems real, his son't life is on the line, and he knows other people in Iraq.)

Unfortunately for all these guys, the situation in Iraq is just going to get worse and worse, and at some point there's a decent chance that one of the factions is going to crack the Green Zone and the US army is going to have to do a fighting retreat. And it is going to be a complete clusterfuck, because the US does not have good control over the road network. Even if the US manages to hunker down in its network of fortresses and lives with the steady attrition, a couple more years of this fiasco will probably kill another half million Iraqis, maybe much more. (It's true that leaving may precipitate a blood bath that kills just as many. It's also clear that staying just prolongs the agony.)

There comes a point where the unwillingness to actually deal with a problem because of political calcuation moves from "business as usual", past "moral cowardice" and into the category of a crime against humanity. That point is very close - Democrats now have their majorities; if they fail to use them to end the war, then they must take responsibility for every single death caused by the war from January on.

Go read Matt, he says a lot of things very well which need to be heard and truly understood.


Ian Welsh December 7, 2006 - 7:45pm

How sad - and instructive - that the only one in Congress still vocally opposing Bush's Iraq-nam disaster is Jim Webb, who just happens to have a son in the fight.

I will judge all 2008 Democratic candidates on two criteria: Prosecute BushCo ASAP, and Bring the Troops Home ASAP. I am now an ASAP Democrat.

Anybody else with me?

"Death before being dishonored any more." - Col. Ted Westhusing

Jimbo92107 December 7, 2006 - 8:42pm

I know of at least two others. Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul have never wavered in their opposition.

I did inhale.

Don December 9, 2006 - 9:41am

What about Russ Feingold? i don't know his record, but i really like him now. one of the VERY few.
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If this were 1700, they'd be saying: "Since civilization began, slavery has existed. It's human nature." I would have believed it. If 1800: "Women will never vote. They are not born rational". I would have believed it.
2006: Make war irrelevant

bernadene December 9, 2006 - 9:48am

It's no secret where i stand, and have for the entire time.

that some one's son or daughter, mother, father, brother, sister, will die as a result of the truth of the above analysis is an abomination. this is the reason ~ 50% of Americans don't vote. this is a scandal and an atrocity. and the reason I am no longer a Democrat.

they are, both parties, as groups, venal, corrupt, gutless, spineless morally retarded, intellectual cretins. for starters.
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If this were 1700, they'd be saying: "Since civilization began, slavery has existed. It's human nature." I would have believed it. If 1800: "Women will never vote. They are not born rational". I would have believed it.
2006: Make war irrelevant

bernadene December 7, 2006 - 9:10pm

I think there are some people, I don't know if they are still lurking around, that owe you and others an apology. I, formerly Lurkingfear, can't believe the kind of abuse people like you took at the beginning of the war. Now, disastor in hand, they are writing the same things we did.

Joaquin December 7, 2006 - 9:20pm

pretty rapidly. Remember Warthog?

I also remember one person who was advocating that we start secretly support the Shias by forming death squads to take care of the Sunni insurgents. Pretty quiet on that one.

LJ December 7, 2006 - 9:46pm

fairly quiet these days on The Agonist, I made my points herein I think but I'm not pleased I was forced to take such a position. I'm not one to gloat but happened yesterday for the first time in many months, years in fact, to look at the blog of the formerly arrogant Analyst and noted that he's more or less shut up shop. I remember the time, shortly after the invasion when he was gloating that it had been x-number of days since a US serviceman had died. That was when the total was about 170.

There seems to be quite a roll call of those no longer posting quite so forthrightly...then again a quick spin over to Little Green Footballs indict the armchair nutters are still out there, but just talking to themselves now.

Asylum December 8, 2006 - 8:13am

that as ten years ago or so I could very well have been a supporter of the war. I voted for Bush in 2000. But all that has changed dramatically. Now I am in the Bernadene camp. The process of change was deeply painful--something like Neo's experience of being taken off the Matrix--I just about came apart. It started when my wife died after a short illness. I began to realize in a number of ways that I could no longer maintain the edifice of fictions that had been my life. Just couldn't do it.

Hopefully we learn from this catastrophe. But I fear that as the consequences play out, the future could quite well take some very negative directions. As we approach the end of the age of plentiful, cheap oil, the US and the world would be much better off with strong, competent, and moral leadership. But we will, I fear, continue to wander in our group delusions until the "apocalypse" comes knocking.

LJ December 8, 2006 - 10:27am

...become der commisar at Politbureau Diktat (I think that's right, but I devote very little focus to the issue of who became/begat whom)? If so, I think he looks to still be about.

As to the undertone I see in this thread, I just can't agree. It's not some sort of implicit victory when the other guy shuts up and goes away (annoying though one may find them) - the point of debate is to make one's understanding of the situation and one's ideas better. The fact that the blogosphere seems increasingly to be finding niches where the choir and preacher are indistinguishable is something to be lamented.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave December 8, 2006 - 11:45am

I probably set that "tone," even though I don't feel much of sense of victory. Mostly I feel ill, and can only imagine that the pro-war voices must feel worse to have their dreams turn into this disaster. We (the US) have only begun to receive the consequences for our misguided actions.

BTW, I don't know if you were here when Warthog was foaming. It was like trying to talk to Dick Cheney's dark side. I am glad "he" has moved onto greener pastures.

LJ December 8, 2006 - 1:58pm

...way of putting it - believe me, I was here!

Unfortunately, I don't think that a lot of the adamently pro-war crowd are actually going to feel "bad" about this. I don't think it'll be long at all until we have the Harry Summers analogues on this conflict - which worries me greatly, especially given that this type of conflict will be predominant. We (the west broadly defined) have really screwed the pooch on this one and more and more I'm seeing this as possibly being only the opening acts in something that will rend the fabric of the middle east and reverberate from end to end in the broader muslim world (man that's a ponderous sentence in need of ominous theme music, but you know what I mean). It was going to be hard to deal with things anyway, but this makes it just insane. Externally mucking with the delicate implicit accomodation between Sunni and Shia, reached over the centuries, was a Real Bad Idea [tm].

If we're going to (somehow) manage the damage control on this one it's going to take a lot of dialogue from a lot of viewpoints, not least those in the Arab world. What to do and how is way above my pay grade, but I do know that I'd rather the folks were spending their time increasing their understanding the nature of the societies that we've f*cked over and how to work with them more effectively, rather than who's fault it is here at home and how they might most justly be punished (I'm thinking particularly here of the thread on dKos that Escher references below).

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave December 8, 2006 - 2:30pm

Justice is necessary to being fixing things Dave. You think Muslims don't want to see Bush tried or impeached? You think that if he isn't they'll just laugh it off.

One of their biggest complaints is that we get all worked up about deaths of Westerners but don't care about their deaths.

Justice is necessary, and it is necessary to help deal with the problems caused.

And any society which doesn't hold people responsible for screwing up (let alone hold them responsible for gross illegalities) does not have the ability to learn from its own mistakes.

Fixing things requires taking responsibility. If you don't take responsibility, you don't learn.

Ian Welsh December 8, 2006 - 3:04pm

...that justice is important, but I'm very uncertain that hanging Bush is the central focus for most in the Middle East. Near as I can tell (and this comes through the filter of Western scholarly studies, which is a real limitation) the desire for different policies towards the region and some indication that we as populations and electorates actually have some understanding of them, their region and its history are held to be much more important.

Would they like to see administration personalities punished? Sure, but my read is that they'd trade it for something more enduring in a flash.

I'm also sympathetic to the notion that we as societies have to hold leaders who screw the pooch accountable, but I'd have a lot more faith that that's what's actually happening (i.e., accountability) if I didn't have the distinct impression that many don't even begin to understand what they're holding the guy accountable for, other than being wrong in glorious technicolour. I look at it and I don't see folks taking responsibility - I see them to some extent trying to transfer responsibility and that doesn't seem to me to be something likely to lead to changed behaviour (i.e., to "learning") on the part of society. I'll trade learning in the sense of attempting to increase knowledge about the folks we screwed over focussing on domestic politics any day of the week.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave December 8, 2006 - 3:46pm

for most in the ME. But when did America ever think of framing its action in terms of their interests?

Impeachment is not about abstract justice. It's got enormous FP implications.

When one counts the number of national elections worldwide in the last four years where American-friendly politicians have been replaced with non-aligned or even antagonistic ones, one quickly sees that if that flow is not stanched, America's troubles will deepen.

Even a team of idiots like the Bush Administration understood that, although predictably they attempted to address it by coercion, by funding internal dissent (with exquisite irony - "funding democracy" almost exclusively in nations already practicing it), and by flexing and deploying military and economic might. And they've left a hell of a sour taste. Flipping their own government is the only way the non-American street has of voting for or against Bush himself and the massively intrusive policy direction he presides over - which presumably will continue without some sort of large, easy-to-read "period" at the end of the sentence.

It's the people who vote for those politicians who need convincing, not the politicians themselves. And for that you need broad, easy-to-read symbolic language. Without the gesture of Bush's impeachment or censure - or something that equally effectively communicates renunciation and change of direction to the world street (and frankly I'm at a loss to imagine anything remotely plausible that would even be close) government after government will simply continue to flip.

So giving Bush's head on a platter will give vital cover to American-aligned politicians worldwide by giving a clear, easy-to-understand symbol of change of a vastly unpopular direction to the street by whose consent they largely rule.

Also, in purely domestic terms, I think the impeachment of Bush is likely shaping up as a desirable from the perspective of a not-insignificant faction within the GOP, in order to blow the explosive bolts between Mr. 30% and the party, and regain credibility in 2007 as an "ethical party" preparatory to the 2008 cycle. Bush is an albatross, not merely in the sense of a heavy dead weight, but also a symbol of bad luck and bad judgement and failure - and this faction knows even uglier revelations are coming down the pipes, and they know what they don't want to be shackled to.

I'm waiting for the tipping point, and that point will not be defined by balance between Dem and GOP but internally within the GOP, between those still throwing good money after bad defending Bush, and those who want to cut their losses and symbolically burn him as a firebreak. That will be defined by a numerical calculation of votes for success of impeachment rather than polical suicide, and I would wager many discussions of the sort have already taken place.

That's why I think Kos and others are disingenuous when they say "we don't have the votes". It takes about three seconds to see the flaw in that statement - what they're saying is they don't have the seats, which only translates to votes if we assume party-line vote. They can't know how many votes they'd have.

Escher Sketch December 10, 2006 - 7:14pm

...folks in other countries view their vote specifically as a vehicle for protest against Shrub personally (i.e., that it'll stop when he's no longer in power) isn't just a little bit too US-centric? Though I do think he makes an absolutely wonderful target for any nationalist with half a brain, and has got to be good for a couple of points in lots of the world, my take would be that this is far, far bigger than just Shrub. This is primarily about the transition to a multi-polar world and the "discovery" that there are real, enduring limits to American power - it just happens to be wearing Shrub and Iraq as its public face. That probably makes it worse, but the notion that any of this can be firewalled by offering up a Presidential impeachment strikes me as unlikely.

If America would like make the ride for itself a little less bumpy it better get used to "framing its action[s]" in terms of the other guy's interests, and quickly. Nothing says that you push someone else's interests over your own, but recognizing what their interests are is an efficient step.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave December 10, 2006 - 10:03pm

We (the west broadly defined) have really screwed the pooch on this one and more and more I'm seeing this as possibly being only the opening acts in something that will rend the fabric of the middle east and reverberate from end to end in the broader muslim world (man that's a ponderous sentence in need of ominous theme music, but you know what I mean).

Only the Muslim world? This war is triggering a global realignment of power relations. If my friends over at www.theoildrum.com are correct, the year over year decline in oil production known as "peak oil" may be all set for next year. Two experts (westexas and Robert Rapier) are debating whether this unhappy event will begin next year or not until 2010. Whether or not they are both wrong, I do believe we are seeing a re-positioning of nations in the light of an obviously weakened US with regards to basic materials. China for example is securing long term contracts for oil. We are losing friends and emboldening enemies while we dither in Iraq.

LJ December 8, 2006 - 3:16pm

...in that realignment, I don't think that it was determinative (as in, I think a major realignment of power was going to happen anyway, even if the specific "lexicon" of that realignment is going to end up being heavily affected by this war).

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave December 8, 2006 - 3:51pm

The fact that the blogosphere seems increasingly to be finding niches where the choir and preacher are indistinguishable is something to be lamented.

I know you hold that assumption as an article of faith, but I think you need to question it. Look at the evidence of your own eyes; in the thread I referenced here, Markos is literally getting the shit kicked out of him two to one - and this is on DKos, an avowedly rabid partisan site!

What you're describing more correctly is what the media has morphed into today (where you can leave FOX on all day and essentially receive only propaganda).

Escher Sketch December 8, 2006 - 2:09pm

...on the preacher because he preached something they didn't want to hear. Doesn't change the nature that it's largely a choir.

I'll admit it's an over broad characterization, but it's not without it's truth either. Seems to me that the number of locales where folks can disagree about policy (or even discuss it) without it devolving into partisan group think seems to be growing smaller.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave December 8, 2006 - 2:20pm

The blogosphere (and the social internet in general) is, and always has been, a place where individual sites tend towards self-reinforcement and where people go to get confirmation, not to learn. There are some partial exceptions, but not too many. What makes the internet useful is that there are many, many different sites and you can go find all the different viewpoints if you choose and that you can get a full immersion in a particular world view if you choose - which is not worthless as long as you remember it's one world view.

I have never, however, believed that the truth is something that is found by splitting the difference between positions. Call that a holdover from being a conservative. The truth is the truth, and places like Little Green Footballs, or Red State, are simply wrong about far more than they are right about, even given their stated values. (Well no, if you actually believed in small government and liberty, you wouldn't actually support the policies that you support. So you're hypocrities.)

That doesn't mean that it isn't worth listening to what they think - there's a sociological maxim that runs as follows, "incorrect beliefs have real consequences". Believe the Iraqis are going to shower you with flowers, and you go to war because you think it'll be a cakewalk, among very many other examples.

Moving on....

Kos is not the biggest blog because his audience agrees with him, he is the biggest blog because he understood the nature of blogging sooner than anyone else and set up a diary site that worked. There was a powerful first mover advantage. This is what a lot of people outside the blogosphere don't understand about Kos, he's not representative of the people who go to his blog.

Ian Welsh December 8, 2006 - 3:12pm

that people underwent a transformation, which is my observation about most of the Agonistas. My point is: they just don't realize how much they've changed because people who said the same thing a couple years ago endured all kinds of verbal abuse from the likes of MadDog who seems scarce these days. Meanwhile, the moderates would sit back and watch or say, well we just disagree.

BTW, there is no victory. Before the war began I walked with 350,000 of my fellow human beings down the streets of San Francisco in peaceful protest of what was about to happen. So many knew the war would be a mistake but all of them lost; the only victory being prevention of the war. The war started and now we are all screwed; and not just Americans.

Joaquin December 8, 2006 - 2:47pm

and I may have overstated the closing up of his shop as such..he's still there but what was a formerly rampant daily lecture is now a three times a month post on as often light humour based stories as anything else. As this blog is evidence over the years, the choir and the preacher can rarely co-exist in the world we now live in if they don't agree, or at least have common ground, and as often as not end up at each other's throats.

Wasn't that one of the reasonings behind the move from the old BB...to move on from that.

I suspect the fact that we no longer have the likes of Warthog, Analyst, RRabid and the like here (even Maddog seems to have gone very quiet after all these years of the snarling one liner) is that it is not a comfortable place to be when the essence of what you have been arguing, often with rather blind faith, is no longer sustainable. We have for example, had no statements of victory from Ranger of recent (whose posts, even if you didn't agree were often fascinating and never less than well argued).

Asylum December 8, 2006 - 7:38pm

Of course, detail, detail, detail at TPM Cafe, but here's a TPM thread on on the general discussion dilemma:
The Advocacy and Activism issue


"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"

nymole December 8, 2006 - 8:03pm

try and tell ourselves that this is only limited to the blogosphere. I'm old enough to remember the Vietnam War (in NZ the pro and anti war elements had a third argument to deal with, in that "what are we doing there, tagging along on the US coat-tails"...an argument which basically ended in 85 when NZ withdrew, or allowed itself to be excluded from, the ANZUS treaty and the Western Alliance).

And then in 81 I watched the country tear itself apart over the Springbok Rugby tour. There was no common ground, no points of discussion, no reasoned to and fro at dinner parties and in classrooms. Some things take us beyond the point of discussion. I don't want to go over to LGF and try to understand, or have a reasoned argument with Warthog or the others. I'll say what I want to say, as politely as I can, but can't stomach any attempt to defend the indefensible. I'd rather walk away, as I did with Maddog at times.

Asylum December 8, 2006 - 8:38pm

I guess the big issues are eternal.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave December 9, 2006 - 5:31pm

qui est fort courte. La voici: Mon Dieu, rendez nos ennemis bien ridicules! Dieu m'a exaucé."

"I always made one prayer to God, which is extremely short. Here it is: 'O my God, make our enemies ridiculous!' God granted it."

- Voltaire, letter to Étienne-Noel Damilaville (1767-05-16)

Escher Sketch December 9, 2006 - 5:11pm

truly would have been relieved to have been wrong. but i just could not see the people i know fairly well in so many respects allowing what this group of arrogant, racist, crime syndicate thugs planned to do to go on. they have shucked and jived the Americans out of everything they can, they have done what anyone without power in another way would do...infiltrate, beat the idiot at his own game, in your own way, especially in your own land FGS. Now killing our sons and daughters with guns bought with our money, freely given. this is the final, blackest, sickest irony, and will be chronicled and remembered.

and all my tears and protests will not bring back one innocent Iraqi child, one idealistic American young person who was betrayed so callously at the beginning of their hopeful future. As a spiritual person and an opitimist, all i can say at this juncture is that i hope we as a nation have learned, finally, the lessons we need to keep this from happening again. that would be a good thing, and will make any deaths, perhaps, redeemable.[Cindy Sheehan looks at Casey's death this way.] The parties in the ME have their own lessons to learn, and i hope their suffering and deaths will be redeemed as well.

that great good and progress comes from great suffering and tragedy is well known. let this be the case in this.

thanks for your note.
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If this were 1700, they'd be saying: "Since civilization began, slavery has existed. It's human nature." I would have believed it. If 1800: "Women will never vote. They are not born rational". I would have believed it.
2006: Make war irrelevant

bernadene December 8, 2006 - 4:22pm

including my wife, my son, my brother and his wife in San Francisco to protest what we knew was about to happen in Iraq. Before that I thought Bush was another Reagan but that day taught me what we are really up against. That day, as hundreds of thousands streamed over the bridges to join the march, Homeland Insecurity declared an Orange Alert and shutdown the Bay Bridge to stop the people; how many would there have been? A million? That day 350,000 that made it had their voice taken from them as CNN filmed only the few lunatics planted in the crowd; I had never seen their like; waving huge beautifully made hammer and sickle flags standing on top of a truck parked in front of CNN's cameras. There were a hundred thousand young mothers pushing baby carriages in that crowd and they did not appear on television. That day I knew that fascists had won and we had all lost. Folks, this aint over yet. To paraphrase "V", something is seriously wrong with our government.

Joaquin December 8, 2006 - 7:12pm

Another view on "exit strategies", the ISG, "bipartisan" meaninglessness, the entire folly that is Junior's war:

Iraq: not civil war, occupation
Sami Ramadani
7 - 12 - 2006
The Iraq Study Group has still not understood what people in Iraq well know, says Sami Ramadani: that it is the United States military occupation of Iraq itself that is fuelling the violence there.

When he was asked by the BBC whether he thought Iraq was going through a civil war, United Nations secretary-general Kofi Annan said that clashes in Lebanon and elsewhere in the past were described as civil war and that the situation in Iraq "is worse than civil war."

I don't know what Kofi Annan had in mind as to what exactly is going on in Iraq, but it is clear to me that it is certainly worse than a civil war. However, I must swiftly add that it is not a communal civil war. Civil wars come in all shapes and sizes, and some are more brutal than others. The 15th century English "wars of the roses" were a series of civil wars, and so were the French, Russian and Chinese revolutions. The clashes in the Lebanon of the 1970s and 1980s, the implosion of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, and the conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo in the late 1990s all had strong elements of a communal civil war.
But we don't describe the war in Vietnam from the 1950s to the 1970s as a civil war, even though it had aspects of civil war, because the National Liberation Front (NLF) was fighting against the South Vietnamese government forces, numbering well over one million soldiers, backed by United States forces. The US policy to withdraw from Vietnam - following the 1968 Tet offensive, the withdrawal of President Johnson from the presidential election race, and the election of Richard M Nixon - went through a process of strengthening the South Vietnamese forces and relying on them to fight the NLF. It was known as "Vietnamisation".

It took the US seven more years finally to admit defeat and withdraw - and only after its "exit strategy" included a massive escalation of the war, bombing Hanoi, spreading the war into Laos and carpet-bombing Cambodia. Most Vietnamese people and their supporters called it a war of liberation (and in Vietnam's historiography it is designated the "American war"). The US media called it the "war in Vietnam" or the "war against communism".

With the blood of the innocent being spilt abundantly in many parts of Iraq, all this might sound like a scholastic exercise and an argument about semantics. Widely used terms, however, can inform and help us to understand, while misused or abused terms have the power to misinform and confuse. They can also mislead the public into supporting or acquiescing in policies on vital matters.
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How it started

Despite suggestions to the contrary, the answer to the first question hasn't changed ever since the United States-led forces occupied Iraq in March-April 2003: a war of bullets and politics between the occupying powers and most of the Iraqi people who want them out. The feelings of the Iraqi people towards the occupation became abundantly clear within two weeks of the fall of Baghdad to United States tanks on 9 April 2003.

According to the BBC, about 4 million people from all over Iraq marched on to Karbala to commemorate the anniversary of Islam's (particularly Shi'a Islam's) most famous martyr, Imam Hussain. The most popular slogans on that march, which was boosted by people from all religions and none, must have sent alarm bells ringing in Washington and London. For several days they chanted Kalla, Kalla Amreeka - Kalla, Kalla Saddam ("No to America, no to Saddam"). If this is how the Shi'a felt, how would the Sunni, not to mention the atheists?!

From that moment on most of the Iraqi people never ceased making their feelings clear towards the occupation. First they used words and engaged in peaceful protests, which quickly led to using bullets too. The latter Rubicon was crossed on 28 April 2003, one week after the march on Karbala, when US soldiers opened fire on parents and children who gathered in front of a primary school in Fallujah demanding the US forces stop using it as an outpost and to allow their children to go back to school. They killed eighteen of them in cold blood and injured about sixty others.
Until the killing of those demonstrators, not a single bullet had been fired at US soldiers in Fallujah or any of the cities north of Baghdad. This was the event that reverberated across Iraq and sparked the armed resistance to occupation. Fallujah being a predominantly Sunni town, and the occupation authorities' having a keen eye for attempting to split the opposition, led to the production of a myth as big as the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) deception that launched the invasion and occupation of Iraq: the fiction that the armed resistance is predominantly Sunni and that they are in a fight against the Shi'a.
...
What of the mindless violence, terrorism and sectarian murders? This is where the occupation authorities and the establishment media have succeeded in convincing most of the public in the US and Britain that, after thousands of years of living together without even a whiff of communal civil war in their history, the people of Mesopotamia don't want to "live and let live" anymore, but have decided to kill each other instead. Add to this scenario the exaggerated presence of foreign terrorists led by al-Qaida, trying to take control of Iraq's oil according to George W Bush, and you have a distorted and highly misleading picture of Iraq. It appears that an old colonial frame of mind has taken root in relation to Iraq; for some, the natives are at it again. In this mindset, the occupation forces are made to appear as a benign, almost virtuous presence in the middle of raging sectarian violence.

As a result, it has become easier for the White House and Downing Street to appear concerned and reasonable when they argue that the troops should stay in Iraq, until such time as the "job is done", "democracy is established", "the terrorists are defeated", "the Iraqis could be in charge of security" or "security is restored".
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How it must end

The long-awaited and much-leaked Iraq Study Group report (under the direction of James A Baker and Lee Hamilton) is likely to feed into this falsehood. It suggests reducing the troops and relying more on Iraqis to do the killing (more "Iraqisation"). And to appear even more concerned and reasonable, they suggest asking Syria and Iran to help restore peace in Iraq. They do not even dare to go as far as the chief-of-staff of the British army, Richard Dannatt, and suggest that the occupation forces, which "kicked the door in", are "exasperating" the situation and creating more violence. They do not tell us about some of the disturbing facts on the ground.

They do not tell us about the "Salvador option" and the presence in Iraq of US death-squads, trained at Fort Bragg, North Carolina and Israel, nor will they spill the beans (as US generals have started to do).

They do not tell us about the secret militias trained and financed by the US, partly uncovered by the Wall Street Journal (in February 2005), but in any case common knowledge in Iraq.

They do not tell us why the occupying power should secretly smuggle 200,000 Kalashnikovs and tons of explosives into Iraq from Bosnia within one year (2004-05); nor to whom these weapons were supplied.

They do not tell us about the hundreds of millions of dollars being spent on covert political operations and the backing of proxy political forces.

They do not tell us about continuing work on building the biggest US embassy in the world in Baghdad's Green Zone embassy (fortress), about the roughly fourteen permanent military bases (including four massive ones) being constructed.
...
In reality, and this is also backed by the latest large-scale opinion poll conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, most Iraqis see the occupation as the poison running through the veins of Iraqi society. Whether it is the heightened sectarian tensions, the occupation violence or the indiscriminate atrocities, the occupation's tentacles are perceived to be behind it by the people that matter: the battered and bloodied Iraqi people.

No way out of the tragedy is feasible without looking at the occupation itself and identifying it for what it is: the source of and magnet for most of the violence and antagonistic divisions. Moreover, if the US-led occupation forces are not fully and swiftly withdrawn from Iraq, then the US 'exit strategy' will mushroom into new, devastating wars against Lebanon, Syria and Iran.

Iraq will not be suddenly turned into a bed of roses once the occupation ends. Some of the violence might also continue. But the Iraqi people will get the chance to resolve their own problems without the presence of a United States-led occupation in their midst. It's called the right to self-determination.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict-iraq/worse_4161.jsp#

It has become obvious for quite some time that the occupation is no longer about "the Iraqi people", it now is down to Junior's fragile ego, US "reputation", "enduring bases" and "regional force projection". Nobody in Congress - save a handful of diehards, nor anyone in the Cheney Administration is willing to sign off on "losing Iraq" (oh, did the US actually "have" it to lose?), so - as in 'Nam, thousands of more lives will be lost until this whole shitty, rotten war is ended, and the end-game will NOT be something orchestrated by Junior's team, of that one can be sure.

barrisj redux December 7, 2006 - 10:06pm

Recommendation No. 22:
RECOMMENDATION 22: The President should state that the United States does not seek permanent military bases in Iraq. If the Iraqi government were to request a temporary base or bases, then the U.S. government could consider that request as it would in the case of any other government..

Now, what the hell does THAT mean in the context of the 4 large, hardened bases already established, hmmm? Bill Scher, at Liberal Oasis blog, has a good summary of where we are today vis-a-vis these bases:
Iraq Study Group on Permanent Bases
http://www.liberaloasis.com/2006/12/iraq_study_group_on_permanent.php
and the Obsidian Wings blog last year had an excellent discussion of this pressing issue:
August 19, 2005
Permanent Bases In Iraq?

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2005/08/permanent_bases.html

I noted elsewhere that there was an effort earlier in the Senate to call out funding for "enduring bases", and specifically BAN such appropriations; now, with the Dems in charge, one wonders if "oversight" will actually inform voting on the Iraq/Afghanistan military operations funding proposals if permanent bases remain the Pentagon's fall-back posture in Iraq. This goes to the heart of the matter as regards the US' ultimate intentions: "phased withdrawal", but leave behind hardened bases "in-country" by claiming "they asked us to stay"; or clearing out, KBR facilities and all, the whole kit and kaboodle. This issue will command constant vigilance, because there will be NO end to the insurrection within Iraq as long as the US military insists on maintaining these bases. And, please, no fiction about "the Iraqi 'government' requests our presence".

barrisj redux December 7, 2006 - 10:34pm

Not What the American or Iraqi People Want

For all the hype, the Iraq Study Group offers two fundamental recommendations that the president might even be able to implement: The group calls for the United States to engage Iraq's neighbors, specifically Iran and Syria. The group recommends a shift in U.S. military force posture and approach from "combat" to training and advice to Iraqi forces.

The Iraq Study Group should be thanked for its service to America in throwing a bucket of cold water on the White House. But post-election, the Commission's many recommendations are merely the opening salvo of a barrage of recommendations that will now emerge from the government, the think tanks, and the politicos.

The wise men have confirmed what the American public has known for some time: Iraq is finished. Our strategy, whatever it is, isn't working. It is mighty disappointing, but not surprising, though that the Study Group couldn't see that there is nothing left that the United States can do to really influence what will happen there. What is more, what it actually is proposing in its two fundamental points isn't necessarily going to make any difference.
...
I understand that this "new" solution is Washington's way of withdrawing without saying it is withdrawing. But there is too much hope associated with the shift: hope that if we just redouble our effort with the Iraqis, they will all of a sudden get it and transform. In here as well is the strange article of faith that less capable Iraqi military units will succeed where more capable U.S. units failed. It seems to me that if we are admitting that there is no military solution to the problem, there is no Iraqi military solution either.

And then there is the question of Americans in uniform being thrust into an impossible position. I know that the embedded American will be there to teach their Iraqi counterparts how to shoot straight, as show an example of camaraderie, and to school them in human rights and the laws of war. But it is only a matter of time before Americans are thrust in the middle of blood letting and abuse.

Here's how I see Iraq playing out in the short term: The president makes an announcement within a month about his "new" plan. Washington is ever so pleased with a new approach. But the a la carte plan is seen by the Iraqis for what it is; it is not a U.S. timetable for withdrawal. It is not an unequivocal pledge not to establish permanent bases. It is sovereignty and authority in name only for Iraq with continued American control behind the scenes. I can't see who any of this equivocation will deflate the insurgency or stem the hatred for America that is fueled by our presence.

The "plan," in other words, is neither what the American people nor the Iraqi people want.

LINK

Rather grim stuff, that...but, after all, this from a close student of the Pentagon, Junior's war, and what "realism" usually brings forth in such circumstances.

barrisj redux December 7, 2006 - 10:46pm

I really don't want to be (believe) that cynical about the system,but I'm afraid that he is right. Good post I.W.

Leaftree December 7, 2006 - 11:34pm

Cynicism is the true great enemy of all people everywhere. To me, it means giving up and losing hope.
I am posting this here as a repeat, since i don't post that much anymore anyway...[see: "The Worst Congress Ever" thread]

The only way we won't get 109th Politburo [nice term] lite, in the 110th, [as in Kerry was "Bush lite" -Chomsky] is to *continue* loud and long to scream "bloody murder, rape, pilliage and fire" as they are contiuing to happen, support those that do and who have hands and feet on the ground and their bodies on the line [lot of flesh and bones being worked out there] with $, and work, such as CREW [Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington http://www.citizensforethics.org/ ]who *actually* exposed and pushed for prosecution of Cunningham, Ney and Delay,[now they are going after DEMOCRATS -yay]
and if you believe in peace for all people, as i do, organizations such as Cindy Sheehan's GSFP, http://www.gsfp.org/ and CODE PINK http://www.codepink4peace.org/

WE AS CITIZENS MUST TAKE BACK THIS COUNTRY!
EDUCATE. AGITATE. ORGANIZE. EMPOWER. WE HAVE AN OBLIGATION TO DO THIS!

Simple numbers say there are more of US than THEM!
Change has NEVER come from the top in dysfunctional organizations [not actually doing the work, of what they have a duty, mandate and the power to do, but causing actual harm] and if i have to argue for that term then there really is no hope.

here at the Agonist, i am sure i am preaching to the choir...now, if we want true change, all of us, every one, must sing in the streets. those that have ears to hear will, and the others, well, they will have to come along for the ride. THERE REALLY ARE MORE OF US THAN THEM.

************************************
If this were 1700, they'd be saying: "Since civilization began, slavery has existed. It's human nature." I would have believed it. If 1800: "Women will never vote. They are not born rational". I would have believed it.
2006: Make war irrelevant

bernadene December 9, 2006 - 10:03am

summed up the ISG report as, “The elephant gives birth to a mouse.

My suggestion, get the troops out, abandon the bases and let the Iraqis take care of their own affairs without further interference. How the Iraqis will put Humpty Dumpty back together again is none of the West’s business. The United States should not have invaded a sovereign country. The Shiite genie is now out of the bottle, and it will be up to them to figure out how to live with each other in peace.

But the root of the problem in the Middle East is Israel. America must stop funding this apartheid society and selling them arms.

Michael Schwartz analysis of why American troops need to leave Iraq, without further delay. A foreign troop presence in the Middle East increases violence, it does not decrease it.

canuck December 8, 2006 - 12:54pm

that when people are angry about US interference, the best way to solve it is with new and improved interference.

Escher Sketch December 8, 2006 - 2:01pm

I clearly stated that the foreign presence needs to remove itself by withdrawing support, both to Israel and Iraq.

canuck December 8, 2006 - 2:03pm

the great decider still thinks it's within his power, and he has the moral authority, to try and set the rules of engagement with Syria and Iran.

I would've thought that a drop to his knees and a begging stance would've been more appropriate. He's playing to his support, what's left of it in the USA, and f**k the Iraqis....

Nothing's gonna change and god knows how many are gonna die as American domestic politics take precedence over sorting this out, or at least trying to...

Commissions, schmissions...

Asylum December 8, 2006 - 9:50pm

Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one.- A.J. Liebling.

<Hence my love for the Agonist.>
graham December 8, 2006 - 8:55pm

If this were 1700, they'd be saying: "Since civilization began, slavery has existed. It's human nature." I would have believed it. If 1800: "Women will never vote. They are not born rational". I would have believed it.
2006: Make war irrelevant

bernadene December 9, 2006 - 10:15am

not tolerate is monetary corruption/greed. The Republicans lost their seats because it was too wide spread. There was one scandal after another that caused voters to reject them as legislators, both in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

"Follow the money," was used effectively against Nixon. Every time an elected official uses the nation, state, or any public funds to enrich themselves, it needs to be brought front and centre to the attention of the voters.

If we as part of blogosphere concentrated our efforts just on that part, we would have been of service. That does not mean we have lost our values, what it equates to is, the blogosphere has to marshall itself to become effective as an opposing forcez.

The Liberals in Canada were tossed out and they are the natural governing party, but the electorate slapped their wrists for scandalous corruption. I do not expect the Harper government will be re-elected if the Liberals clean up their act.

Ditto the Democrats that have been elected. In order to be elected in 2008, they must come out squeaky clean. We must not ignore people who accept bribes from the lobbyist industry.

Money talks--let's try very hard to document the abuses that happen (ed) in the Bush administration and in the present legislators that have been elected.

It may necessitate that we temporarily not focus on other abuses in the system.

Good to see Agonists returning that have been absent and contributing to this thread.

canuck December 9, 2006 - 2:00pm

I do not expect the Harper government will be re-elected if the Liberals clean up their act.

Or if the "business-friendly" Conservatives are inevitably caught with their own hands in the cookie jar. And the less the transparency the more inevitable the temptation.

Escher Sketch December 9, 2006 - 2:22pm

the Conservatives will build legislature that has the least amount of transparency. But a nincompoop usually makes their theft very evident. Thieves and corrupt officials are not as clever as they believe they are. Miscalculations on the part of dishonest people and politicians of their expertise is probably why prisons are increasing in size. :-) For every crook, there are thousands of well-trained police and prosecutors that put them in jail.

Last night I watched a programme on the history channel. It was about guy in Toronto that blew up his house and half of the neighbourhood. He planted skin-head Natzi, white supremacy, hate messages that the police eventually tracked back to him. His business was failing and he intended to collect the insurance. He was sentenced to fifteen years.

Crime may pay big bucks, but the risk factor is extremely high.

Capone thought he was impervious to prosecution, but he was sent to jail because of income tax fraud. There are numerous ways courts and prosecutors skin cats and hang them up to dry.

canuck December 9, 2006 - 2:37pm

Cheers!

Joaquin December 11, 2006 - 11:42am

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