Who Won? Rahm Spins, But Pelosi Decides


Here we have the Washington Post doing Rahm Emanuel's work:

The complexion of the Democratic presence in Congress will change as well. Party politics will be shaped by the resurgence of "Blue Dog" Democrats, who come mainly from the South and from rural districts in the Midwest and often vote like Republicans. Top Democrats such as Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) see these middle-of-the-road lawmakers as the future of the party in a nation that leans slightly right of center.

In private talks before the election, Emanuel and other top Democrats told their members they cannot allow the party's liberal wing to dominate the agenda next year. Democrats will hold 30 or 35 seats that went for Bush in the past, meaning that Democratic candidates such as Brad Ellsworth in rural Indiana are likely to face competitive races again in 2008. Still, their interests are likely to collide with those of veteran liberals such as Reps. Henry A. Waxman (Calif.) and John Conyers Jr., (Mich.), who will chair committees.

Y'know, it's not clear to me that the majority of new House members will be members of the Blue Dog caucus. In fact, I'm willing to state that they won't. As Chris Bowers sarcastically notes:

Wave of new conservative Democrats, my ass. Mark down House victories in NH-01, NH-02, NY-24, FL-22, PA-07, PA-08, IA-01, IA-02, CO-07, AZ-08, KY-03, CT-05, CA-11, MN-01, and NY-19. Now someone tell me again how the new wave of Democrats is overwhelmingly conservative with these districts and reps making up the majority of the new class.

Rahm is a "centrist", which means, effectively, a conservative, and is himself to the right of center compared to the majority of Americans. The majority of Americans aren't conservative - they're for a minimum wage increase; they want universal healthcare; they believe in global warming and they think that abortion should be legal. The rarefied air inside the beltway leans right of center, and Rahm and his ilk think that the beltway is a reflection of the rest of America.

The politics of triangulation was the politics of the 80's and the 90's - the years when Rahm was learning his trade as a politician. People were willing to give not just conservatism, but reactionary politics, a try. Liberalism had failed to deal with the oil shocks of the 70's and the stagflation that came with it, and reactionaries had a theory that cutting taxes on the rich was the way to fix everything. And they tried that. For over two and a half decades it was tried, with Bush Jr. trying it in its purest form. And it lead to a generation long stagnation in real wages for ordinary people, record deficit, debts and trade deficits. It didn't work.

The sort of moderatism that Rahm espouses, a moderatism that is conservatism bargaining with Republicans about how far to the right to go, and how fast, has failed. It's time is done. The solutions it tried, simply did not solve problems but instead bred them. And so, when Nancy Pelosi, a liberal, takes up the gavel in Washington, it will be time to march back to the left, not some fake center leaning to a right which has just been repudiated by Americans.

Americans voted against Republicanism. They voted against conservative and reactionary policies. They did not vote for Rahm's right wing moderation.

And Democrats should give them what they voted for - a liberal government in the best senses of the word - one which balances the budget, doesn't fight illegal wars, brings justice to those who have comitted crimes and, most importantly, one which tries to help all Americans and to raise all boats, rather than to just help the rich, while shaking down K-Street for donations.

I think Nancy Pelosi understands that.

It's clear Rahm doesn't.


Ian Welsh November 8, 2006 - 3:41am

Liberals have no stranglehold on virtue.

I think the liberal/conservative debate outdated.

We need honesty and inegrity.

Certainly the liberal wing is the base of the Democratic party, but Dems won control of congress because of the smaller but important contribution conservative democrats and independants made this time. That's the point this guy is making. Lose sight of this and dems go back to bitching on the sidelines, at least down south.

Just my opinion.

I did inhale.

Don November 8, 2006 - 6:14am

Conservative Dems gained control of the House because of a much larger number of liberal members. If they don't want to be crushed in 2008, they may wish to remember that. The tail doesn't get to wag the dog, and Conservative dems want to be in charge. They don't get to do that, because their options are working with Liberals, or working with people who are corrupt and crazy. If they don't like liberals, what are they doing in the Democratic party?

And while liberals have no stranglehold on virture, Rahm is the one shaking down K-Street, not the liberals who supposedly are just as bad as him. And the fact is that it mostly wasn't Liberals like Pelosi who had the bad judgement and horrible morals to back an illegal war based on what anyone with sense knew were lies. Maybe, for once, it's time for "centrists" who go it wrong on the most important issue of their political lives, to shut up and listen to those who got it right?

But the ultimate point is simply this - that article is part of an attempt by Rahm to claim credit for the House victory for conservatives and say that therefore conservative politicies should be followed.

Rahm wants more influence than his numbers warrant. If he wants an internal civil war, he'll get one. His choice, but he may want to do a head count first and think it over twice, because playing chicken with Pelosi is a bad idea and Rahm won't win. But he might sink the ship trying.

Ian Welsh November 8, 2006 - 6:58am

Conservative dems didn't gain the house. Liberal AND conservative dems gained the house. Independants capable of voting either way voted for democrats also. In races where extremes are evenly divided, it's the middle that decides who's in charge.

But I'm not going to waste any more time talking about it. My country is critically ill, near death, and there's work to be done.

Like the folks that attacked the cockpit of United flight 93, you have taken over the back of the plane...

I did inhale.

Don November 8, 2006 - 9:41am

Like the folks that attacked the cockpit of United flight 93, you have taken over the back of the plane...

Vivid, but a little harsh I think Don.

The Democrats just gained real power. All signs are that they are going to use it.

Even more intersting ... they are reading the blogs. I don't think they are going to be allowed to take their eye off the ball. By you if no one else :)

tfisb November 8, 2006 - 7:24pm

Pretty please:-)


"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"

nymole November 9, 2006 - 1:07am

Bill Scher

Any notion that Democrats won because they ran a field of candidates who lean right on social issues is bunk (as both the NY Times and the W. Post suggest, apparently following the lead of Rep. Rahm Emanuel.)

Yes, there are candidates like Sen.-elect Bob Casey (PA), Rep.-elect Brad Ellsworth (IN) and Rep.-elect Heath Shuler (NC) who are anti-abortion.

But Sen.-elect Sherrod Brown and Sen.-elect Claire McCaskill support reproductive freedom and won in Ohio and Missouri. Rep.-elect Harry Mitchell is pro-choice and beat prominent conservative Rep. J.D. Hayworth in Arizona.

And South Dakota voters rejected a statewide ban on abortion.

(Montana's Jon Tester, who is leading as this writing, is pro-choice too.)

It's not a problem if the Democratic Party embraces candidates with differing views on moral questions. (It has never been a problem that anti-abortion Harry Reid leads us in the Senate.)

It is a problem if the party wrongly believes it must do so, and must marginalize liberal moral values, in order to win -- because that attitude will fracture the party and compromise core principles.

And it's a really big problem if these guys don't help the Democratic team stop Bush from shoving our judiciary even farther to the right-wing.

Ian Welsh November 8, 2006 - 7:21am

Americans voted against Republicanism. They voted against conservative and reactionary policies. They did not vote for Rahm's right wing moderation.

Connecticut is, in this election, an enigma, given your supposition (which I agree with, generally speaking).But Lieberman's victory really is one I do not understand; in virtually every other race here, your statement holds true. Democrats did an incredible job rallying their forces but it still wasn't enough to get Lamont, whom I saw as one of the most vocal and vehement anti-Republican candidates, into office.

We're stuck with a schmuck.

Doug Richardson November 8, 2006 - 6:51am

Lieberman's ads in the general left the impression he was anti-war. His surrogates told conservatives he was pro-war and liberals he was anti-war, and as a result he picked up enough low information voters to push him over the edge.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/20/19057/009

There was also a fair bit of street money involved.

Ian Welsh November 8, 2006 - 6:59am

Rahm Emmanuel is misreading the results. People like Bob Casey may have conservative views on social matters, but they chose to run as Democrats. That suggests they are aligned with the party on major issues relating to the war, deficit spending, a minimum wage hike, etc. They chose to put their moral issues on the backburner, and it seems to be clear that they don't expect to single-handedly change Democratic policies on abortion or same sex marriage.

None of the exit polling suggests moral issues were uppermost in the mind of the voters, either. Why should the Democratic Party now feel forced to move to the right? The public seems tired of government intrusion in these areas and it just may be time to stay with the status quo (e.g. with abortion), or get the government out of the way (as with stem cell research).

The bigger shift that has taken place is that moderate and liberal Democrats have been elected in many parts of the country, and in this sense Ian is right that it is these Democrats who matter much more than the conservative Democrats that were elected. Look, for example, at the Northeast. There is not one Republican representative from Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts or Rhode Island. In New York, at least four Republican incumbents were thrown out, and the losses in Connecticut would have been just as deep if Christopher Shays hadn't held on. And where is he going to be in the new House? He is one of the few moderate Republican House members left - even Jim Leach from Iowa lost in an upset. Shays ought to be thinking seriously of becoming a Democrat because he has no home in his own party.

Northeast Republican senators are just as endangered. People like Olympia Snow exist because they are moderates. She is one of a handful of Republican senators left in the Northeast, and rather than talk about Blue Dog Democrats, Emmanuel should be thinking about Red Dog Republicans. It is time to either invite them into the party or at least build a coalition of the few that are left in the Senate in order to push legislation through.

What has happened then, is that we are witnessing the emergence of the solid Democratic Northeast, a counterbalance to the solid Republican South. This has gone completely unnoticed by the pundits.

Add to this the beginnings of a two-party balance in the Great Lakes states, or as with Illinois, a solid Democratic majority, and you can see the possibility of yet another swath of the country going permanently blue. What was a deeply Republican state like Indiana can no longer be described as a sure thing for the Republicans at all.

Slowly but surely, the Republicans are being encircled in their Southern redoubt. This is the price they will pay for their Lee Atwater Southern strategy. Look at it this way: they used racism to hold on to a Senate seat in Tennessee, but that element of intolerance is so anathema to the rest of the country that they lost other Senate seats around the country, and they have given up their chance of being a national party.

Numerian November 8, 2006 - 9:28am

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