So the Democrats have taken the House, and maybe the Senate. What does that mean in practical terms, and what should we expect over the next few weeks and months?

Lame Duck Congress First expect a last splurge of bills designed to either spread pork, or bind the hands of the incoming Democratic majority. This is where all the ugly bills gets passed - naked giveaways to special interests combined with measures like tax cuts which the Republicans figure the Democrats won't have the guts to repeal.

Pelosi will be Speaker But the real question is who winds up as majority leader? The battle will most likely be Hoyer vs. Murtha. Murtha's fantastically popular with the netroots, and deservedly so, for taking point on speaking out against the Iraq war. However, not to put it too bluntly, he's just slightly to the left of Atilla the Hun. Hoyer's pretty right wing as well, but he's not as far to the right as Murtha, when you look at their voting records in the cold hard light of dawn. And Murtha has quite the reputation for, ummm, log-rolling, shall we say. The problem is that Murtha is a Pelosi loyalist, and Hoyer is aligned with Rahm Emanuel. And Pelosi is a liberal, and needs one of her people and preferably a conservative as her right hand man in the House. It certainly doesn't hurt that the sort of Representatives who love Hoyer love Murtha too. Murtha has stated that he mostly wants to deal with the war and armed forces issues and is happy to leave other issues to the chairs of their respective comittees. The idea of either man as Majority leader shouldn't thrill you much if you're liberal at all.

The real question in the House will be who gets to chair what comittees. This isn't as cut and dried as it once might have been - Pelosi has been clear that seniority will only get you so far. Watch these chairs like a hawk - who gets them will tell you, more than anything else, what sort of legislation the House will be passing and whether it is going to use its subpoena power agressively against the administration. Watch for Conyers at Justice; Waxman at Government Reform; Dingel at Energy and Commerce; and Rangel at taxation. The more liberal the chairs, the more likely it is that Pelosi intends to (or can) move fairly agressively to clean up the swamp.

The Hundred Hours The first few days of the new House will include sweeping ethics legislation, the closing of broad swathes of tax loopholes; a minimum wage increase; tuition for university students; money for soldiers; and strong PayGo legislation. This will set the House up for a showdown with Bush. My guess is that Bush will veto a lot of it - that's fine from a Democratic point of view. Democrats were elected to change course and confront Bush, and if Bush is seen as obstructionist, it simply sets up the argument for 2008, that in order to fix what is wrong with America requires a Democratic president working with a Democratic House and Senate.

More After the Jump

Lieberman A lot of people think Lieberman is going to caucus with the Republicans. I doubt he will - running as an official Republican, he'd probably lose his next election. However, word is that Lieberman is very bitter about all the Democrats who he felt left him to hang (ironically the netroots are angry that many of those same politicians stood on the sidelines), and the truth is that he's NeoCon - he really believes that stuff. Freed from having to pander to the Democratic base, who odds are, will challenge him again in 2012, I would expect him to run hard to the right. He will be very unreliable on key votes and will be a thorn festering in the side of Congressional Democrats, providing "bipartisan" cover for the Republicans on many key issues and constantly slagging the party from talk show after talk show.

A Democratic Senate At this point, I'm unsure. It will depend on Tester and to some extent Webb (expect recounts in both states, this ain't over yet), but assuming that the Senate does go Democratic it will both matter a great deal and very little. It'll matter a lot because of the power of controlling comittees. A lot of bad legislation will simply never ever make it to the floor of the Senate, and that which does will have been weakened and fixed up. However on certain key votes, like appointing Supreme Court justices, realize that Democrats do not have a working majority and may still not even have the numbers necessary for a filibuster. If another Supreme Court spot opens up odds are very good Bush will get his man onto it, and put in a 5 man reactionary lock into the court which will be able to enshrine the unitary executive theory and pardon Bush and other Republicans for their crimes.

The "I" Words Impeachment and Investigations. Nancy Pelosi has stated she doesn't intend to impeach the President. However she has also said another "I" word. Investigation. And Pelosi knows as well as anywhere else where investigations backed with subpoenas and with appointees forced to testify under oath means. As Pelosi herself has noted, the Republicans run a criminal enterprise. They've broken a lot of very seriouis laws. A determined investigation will find multiple impeachable offenses by both Bush and Cheney. And if you know of actual crimes, how can you not impeach?

This is where things are going to get ugly. The White House has already stated they will refuse to cooperate in every way possible, including having both the President and VP refuse to obey subpoenas (because, after all, the King answers to no one, and America is a nation of men, not laws). They will also refuse, categorically, to give over documents of any kind. This will go all the way to the Supreme Court. One would think that having allowed the House to go on fishing expeditions through Clinton's underwear drawer, that men like Scalia would find it difficult to refuse the House this time around. Rest assured, however, that Scalia, Roberts, Alito and Thomas will find some way to deny the House. This will be another 5-4 decision, and it is uncertain which way it will go. Likewise with only two years left in Bush's mandate, the White House will attempt to run out the clock by fighting everything they can and delaying everything for as long as possible.

The Fight Has Just Begun This is, literally, only a start. The next two years are going to be hard fought and messily partisan. With a hostile Presidency, and without a working majority in the Senate, how much good law can be passed will be limited. But a great deal of bad law will not be passed because of this victory, and when you're bleeding a gusher the first thing you need to do is put a tourniquet on it.

A Clear Mandate Democrats should not be scared to pick fights with Republicans over the next two years. The exit polls showed clearly that this was a vote against Republicanism and against Bush. Americans elected Democrats specifically to slam on the brakes on Republican excess, venality and warmaking; to clean out the Augean stables, and that is what Democrats should do.

When you have a mandate, you act on it. It's Pelosi's job, and that of all Democrats whether in the House or Senate, to pick up shovels and start mucking out the Stables. Fail to do so, try to cozy up to K-Street as Emanuel wants to do; or fail to investigate as many would prefer to do (because an illegal war based on lies isn't worth getting justice for) and Democrats will have failed both their country and themselves - and voters will punish them for it, seeing that there really is little difference between the parties.