Chuck Todd on MSNBC seems to think so, if the Dems only barely take the House:

But the fascinating storyline in this scenario will be Pelosi's fate. Will, say, 220 House Democrats stay united and elect Pelosi speaker, or will enough conservative House Democrats break and elect a compromise Democrat as speaker? Even the threat of Democrats peeling off and working in collaboration with the Republicans to do so might be enough to encourage a serious challenge to Pelosi inside the Democratic caucus. For some reason Pelosi has a terrible relationship with the liberal blogs. There's a pretty decent chance liberal bloggers could start a grassroots effort to get behind Emanuel for speaker.

And on the face of it, superficially, I can see why he might think so. This Kos poll, for example, from July, has Pelosi at a 36% approval rating - not exactly beloved (Reid was at 70% and Dean at 90), but, on the other hand Rahm was at 30 - not exactly beloved either.

The real nub of it is this - the people who dislike Pelosi are tepid about it. The people who dislike Emmanuel hate his guts. And as head of the DCCC if the dems don't do well, and just get marginal control of the house, a lot of the stuff from the fan is going to hit him.

More After the Jump

As for Pelosi and the blogosphere - I've always liked her, and six months ago I was definitely in the minority on that. However my sense is that many bloggers now are beginning to see her good side. Sure, she's not that good on TV (though she's getting better) but she's tough as nails, she runs a tight caucus and she has no illusions about the Republicans. Pelosi will offer them a certain amount of "bipartisanship" because it's good politics to be reasonable, but she will still run investigations into what happened while they controlled all 3 branches of government, and she'll do it with subpoena power.

If the Democrats don't take the Senate, and if Pelosi retains the speakership (by far and away the most likely scenario, despite Todd's scenario) she will become the locus of opposition to Bush. She will be going toe-to-toe with Bush on a regular basis.

This time next year her approval ratings will either be so microscopic you can't find them, or she'll be beloved by the blogosphere. There is no third possibility, because she will either stand up to Bush and the Republicans effectively, or she won't. The blogosphere loves a fighter more than anything else. If Nancy turns out to be a fighter when she has the majority, they'll love her. If she can't use that power effectively, then won't.

Which is as it should be.

Personally, however, my money is on Pelosi - both for Speaker, and for standing up effectively to Bush. The House Minority has no power, none. The House majority can't necessarilly push much through against a hostile president and Congress, but it still has a bully pulpit - and subpoena power. There are a lot of people who are going to be pleading the fifth next year, because there have been a lot of crimes committed.

And hey, who wouldn't like a woman who said of the Republicans that they are a criminal enterprise and when chided for that, returned that it was one of the kinder things that could be said about them?