Mid term elections are traditionally turnout elections. The side whose base turns out in the largest numbers generally wins. Or, to put it another way - they're red meat elections. You have to get the base up and raring to go. And in general this time around it's been acknowledged that the Democratic base is angry and in fighting fettle while the Republican base is demoralized and angry - at their own party. That boded very well for Democrats.

The torture bill threatens this dynamic. Torture is something that matters greatly to the Democratic base. They aren't willing to roll on it - it's not a compromisable value for them. And the perception (and probably the reality) is that the Democrats aren't going to put up a fight to stop torture - that they got rolled on it by McCain and company, and having let McCain lead the fight, now that a "compromise" has been reached that still allows torture, they're out in the cold. And since the primary driver for Democrats is fear of being labelled "weak" on "national security", they probably won't filibuster.

But not filibustering won't just make them look weak to Americans in general (let me repeat, strength is as strength does) it will demoralize the Democratic base. And in a base driven turnout election, that could cost enough seats to matter.

On the other hand, I guarantee nothing would energize the base like a filibuster over torture.

The choice is in the hands of Democratic Senators. I would suggest they locate their spines and make a stand. They'll feel better in the morning. Odds are at least even that it's the right thing to do electorally, and there's no question that it's the right thing to do morally.

And it'll work a hell of a lot better at motivating the base than "well, we're only spineless - they're evil and incompetent."