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Pakistan: The End of Fear
In the light of the Pakistani decision to make peace with al-Qa'eda and the Taliban in Warziristan, including removing troops and paying reparations, and thus implicitly admitting that Warziristan is a seperate state where the writ of the Pakistani government is not effective, that statement by Armitage becomes quite sad. Because, clearly, things have changed. Pakistan isn't scared that if it makes a seperate peace it'll get bombed to hell. Oh, Musharraf makes the right noises about how if Bin Laden was found the Pakistanis would take him out but, eh, that's for public consumption. They aren't looking anymore, and they don't want to find him, and if the US shared operational details on an attack with them, I'll lay long odds Bin Laden would be nowhere near when the attack happened. The reason things have changed is that Musharraf has made the calculation that the US is no longer either psychologically or militarily in a position to bomb Pakistan back to the stone age. Sure, post 9-11 Americans were so angry that if Pakistan had balked, there would have been strong public support for round the clock hell to be unleashed on Pakistan (and wouldn't India have been amused) but there isn't any more, and with the US military in full overstretch, there isn't the capacity any more, anyway. Also, it's now clear that the Taliban is eventually going to win in Afghanistan, and Pakistan's interest is to have a friendly government on its northern flank. And that requires making a seperate peace with Afghanistan and then lying about it so the US doesn't cut off aid and weapons the Pakistani military wants. Which is to say - post 9-11 the US was strong, unified and looked extremely dangerous. Today it doesn't, and those who were cowed into support like Pakistan now feel it is safe to walk away. Those like Iran, once willing to stop all nuclear activities, who practically begged the US to let them stop, feel no need to toe the line either. The problem with let them hate so long as they fear is that when they stop fearing, they still hate. Ian Welsh September 22, 2006 - 10:36am
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