Pakistan: The End of Fear


According to Musharraf, seems that after 9/11 Pakistan came on side because of a threat from the US about what would happen if Pakistan didn't abandon the Taliban and help hunt down al-Qa'eda:

Musharraf, in an interview with CBS that will air on Sunday, said the threat came from Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and was given to Musharraf's intelligence director."The intelligence director told me that (Armitage) said, 'Be prepared to be bombed. Be prepared to go back to the Stone Age,"' Musharraf said. "I think it was a very rude remark."

In the light of the Pakistani decision to make peace with al-Qa'eda and the Taliban in Warziristan, including removing troops and paying reparations, and thus implicitly admitting that Warziristan is a seperate state where the writ of the Pakistani government is not effective, that statement by Armitage becomes quite sad.

Because, clearly, things have changed. Pakistan isn't scared that if it makes a seperate peace it'll get bombed to hell. Oh, Musharraf makes the right noises about how if Bin Laden was found the Pakistanis would take him out but, eh, that's for public consumption. They aren't looking anymore, and they don't want to find him, and if the US shared operational details on an attack with them, I'll lay long odds Bin Laden would be nowhere near when the attack happened.

The reason things have changed is that Musharraf has made the calculation that the US is no longer either psychologically or militarily in a position to bomb Pakistan back to the stone age. Sure, post 9-11 Americans were so angry that if Pakistan had balked, there would have been strong public support for round the clock hell to be unleashed on Pakistan (and wouldn't India have been amused) but there isn't any more, and with the US military in full overstretch, there isn't the capacity any more, anyway.

Also, it's now clear that the Taliban is eventually going to win in Afghanistan, and Pakistan's interest is to have a friendly government on its northern flank. And that requires making a seperate peace with Afghanistan and then lying about it so the US doesn't cut off aid and weapons the Pakistani military wants.

Which is to say - post 9-11 the US was strong, unified and looked extremely dangerous. Today it doesn't, and those who were cowed into support like Pakistan now feel it is safe to walk away. Those like Iran, once willing to stop all nuclear activities, who practically begged the US to let them stop, feel no need to toe the line either.

The problem with let them hate so long as they fear is that when they stop fearing, they still hate.


Ian Welsh September 22, 2006 - 10:36am

some more added to reuters article:

[snip]

Documents showed Armitage met the Pakistani ambassador and the visiting head of Pakistan's military intelligence service in Washington on Sept. 13 and asked Pakistan to take seven steps.

SUPPORT FOR BIN LADEN

They included ending logistical support for bin Laden and giving the United States blanket overflight and landing rights for military and intelligence flights.

The report did not discuss any threat the United States may have made, but it said Musharraf agreed to all seven U.S. requests the same day.

Musharraf said in the CBS interview he was irked by U.S. demands that Pakistan turn over its border posts and bases for the U.S. military to use.

He said some demands were "ludicrous," including one insisting he suppress domestic expression of support for terrorism against the United States. "If somebody's expressing views, we cannot curb the expression of views," Musharraf said.

With Taliban fighters still fighting in Afghanistan and statements by the Afghan government that Pakistan must do more to crack down on militants in its rugged border area, the issue is again a sensitive one between Islamabad and Washington.

Musharraf reacted with displeasure to comments by Bush on Wednesday that if he had firm intelligence bin Laden was in Pakistan, he would issue the order to go into that country.

"We wouldn't like to allow that. We'd like to do that ourselves," Musharraf told a news conference.

In the CBS interview, Musharraf also spoke about the embarrassment he felt when informed by then-CIA Director George Tenet at the United Nations in 2003 that Pakistani nuclear weapon technology had been passed to Iran and North Korea.

"It was the most embarrassing moment," Musharraf said, denying that anyone in the government or military necessarily knew of the transport of a total amount of more than 18 tons of secret material from Pakistan's nuclear facilities.

LINK


from earlier thread

Tina September 22, 2006 - 10:59am

Besides the fact that the US in overextended and lacks a credible military threat against Pakistan (what with Iraq and now Iran on the table--yikes). But the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan has led to this:

The U.S. military plans no troop cuts in Afghanistan before March, as fighting intensifies against Taliban forces that have gained influence in a political and security "vacuum" in the southern part of the country, according to a senior U.S. commander.

Pakistan may be a staging point for jihadists, but Musharraf certainly doesn't want to be deposed. Revealing this info about Armitage is probably his attempt to reassert himself domestically and put some space between himself and Bush. This makes him look like less of a lackey and more capable of dealing with spillover security threat from Afghanistan.

tksharp September 22, 2006 - 11:30am

The reason things have changed is that Musharraf has made the calculation that the US is no longer either psychologically or militarily in a position to bomb Pakistan back to the stone age.

We don't need troops to send Pakistan(mainly Waziristan) back to the stone age, just aircraft. I can see George turning on Mush, saying intell says Osama is in the Waziristan and bombing the whole area. The area has always been ungovernable and Mush pulling his troops out just reinforces that idea and that they are separate from the rest of Pakistan. I personally don't see Mush crying too many tears over the idea. He would make all the requisite noises, but in the end would do nothing. We have already used drones in the area and bombed a dinner party, whats a few more.



In these times you have to be an optimist to open your eyes when you awake in the morning. ~ Carl Sandburg

Tina September 22, 2006 - 11:42am

Allowing the US to bomb Warziristan, or looking impotent to stop it, would have him overthrown by the military or the intelligence services before the next morning. As long as Pakistan claims Warziristan as part of Pakistan, whatever the pragmatic reality, an attack on it would be viewed as an attack on Pakistan by the population and the civil service. It would be a massive humiliation.

Ian Welsh September 22, 2006 - 11:46am

He has always looked impotent to his people when dealing with the US - with the exception of Khan. It seems to me he has just given the warlords their last chance. I don't see the military being too upset, they got their butts kicked there. The ISI might be a different story.

Pakistan feels the heat in war on terror(NEWS ANALYSIS)

By Indo Asian News Service

Islamabad, Sep 22 (IANS) With the Senate elections due in November, Pakistan is feeling the US heat in the war on terror.

This week, six American helicopters reportedly intruded into the North Waziristan Agency, violating Pakistan's air space, in a clear indication of the heightened anti-terror operations on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

A Pakistani report quoted officials and residents as saying that Pakistani security forces did not react to the intrusion.

Lt Gen. David Richards, who leads the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, has been echoing what President George W. Bush has been saying for some time.

Using the language of a soldier, he claimed to have the mandate to cross into Pakistani territory without informing, leave alone consulting, Islamabad, if he had specific evidence of terrorist whereabouts. more



In these times you have to be an optimist to open your eyes when you awake in the morning. ~ Carl Sandburg

Tina September 22, 2006 - 12:00pm

The military actually had court martials over officers refusing to fight in Warziristan, which is the first time in the history of Pakistan that those sort of court martials have ever taken place.

In most respects, the military /is/ Pakistan - it is the professional organization that holds it together.

Ian Welsh September 22, 2006 - 12:02pm

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