Opium, Insurgency and the Ruin of America


Via the NYTimes I read:

Afghanistan’s opium harvest this year has reached the highest levels ever recorded, showing an increase of almost 50 percent from last year, the executive director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Antonio Maria Costa, said Saturday in Kabul.

He described the figures as “alarming” and “very bad news” for the Afghan government and international donors who have poured millions of dollars into programs to reduce the poppy crop since 2001.

He said the increase in cultivation was significantly fueled by the resurgence of Taliban rebels in the south, the country’s prime opium growing region. As the insurgents have stepped up attacks, they have also encouraged and profited from the drug trade, promising protection to growers if they expanded their opium operations.

“This year’s harvest will be around 6,100 metric tons of opium — a staggering 92 percent of total world supply. It exceeds global consumption by 30 percent,” Mr. Costa said at a news briefing.

This is, of course, another example of the triumph of western ideology and political correctness over realism and pragmatism. During the first few years of the Afghani occupation there was little attempt by NATO to crack down on opium production. There was also little attempt to rebuild the country or provide ways for the majority of Afghani farmers to make a living other than opium cultivation.

In a sense that neglect, while shortsighted, was fine. Then NATO became stunningly stupid and decided to go after opium cultivation seriously without flooding the country with enough money to replace the lost income. At the time I predicted that it would cause a huge backlash, and it has done so.

The implicit deal between the US and the warlords and tribes was that they would help the US oust the Taliban for bribes and for the right to grow opium again, which the Taliban had taken away from them, thus depriving them of independent income. (A smart move if you have a central government which actually has the ability to control the countryside, but a stupid move if you don't.)

There were a couple ways this could have been handled. The coalition could have actually flooded the country with money and rebuilt it, so that there was opportunity other than opium growing. At that point, cracking down on opium growing could have been acceptable - it would have bothered some people, but not caused mass discontent. Or they could have designated Afghanistan to grow legal opium, and directly paid the farmers more than they could get for selling it illegally (there's a huge legal market, but frankly, even if they grew too much, paying for it and then burning it would be cheap for the peace it provides.)

Now Afghanistan's primarily a rural country, and when it runs an insurgency against an invader, what it runs is a classic rural insurgency that Mao would find very familiar. The farmers are exactly the people you need to keep on your side. Lose them and you've lost the country - the cities are largely irrelevant. They fall first to an invader, and last to an insurgency because they aren't where the power in the country resides.

This sort of arteriosclerosis of the mind, this inability to think beyond our own shibolleths like "drugs bad" is exactly what is causing us to lose and lose and lose again and again. We're more powerful than our enemies but it doesn't matter, because we are inflexible, clumsy, cheap and hidebound. The insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan show more strategic flexibility than we do, while Hezbollah shows more tactical flexibility and innnovation than any western military in decades. They are learning, they are adapting. We just keep trying the same thing over and over again, expecting that the results will be different from the last failure.

And we keep trying to overpower situations. This is as evident in the failed US domestic drug war as it is in the failed Afghani drug war. Somehow despite 30 years of failure the US thinks that if they just try harder, drug interdiction and heavy penalties will reduce drug use.

And this general inability to reverse course, to realize that if you'red digging a hole in the ground at a cost of billions of dollars and it isn't going anywhere, you need to stop, is destroying the US and everyone else who engages in it.

For a long time the assumption was that it didn't matter - there was money for as much stupidity as we felt like. That was always an illusion - there was credit for as much stupidity as we felt like, but that credit is damn near running out, and is no longer sufficient for every stupidity under the sun.

So, in Afghanistan; in Iraq; in the Levant and at home, it's time to stop wasting money, effort and lives. Not doing so won't just lead to defeat in multiple wars; it won't just lead to disasters like Katarina - it is within a decade of leading to the ruin of America.


Ian Welsh September 5, 2006 - 4:36pm

In 2004, it was reported that “Nato happy to ignore explosion in Afghan opium output, says Russia”

Richard Norton-Taylor and agencies
Monday February 9, 2004
The Guardian

Nato is turning a blind eye to the flourishing opium trade in Afghanistan to ensure the support of warlords in the struggle to maintain security in the country, Russia's defence minister has claimed.

Sergei Ivanov said Afghanistan was now producing nine times the quantity of drugs it did under the Taliban.

"It is understandable that by allowing drug peddling in Afghanistan, the [Nato] alliance ensures loyalty of warlords on the ground and of some Afghan leaders," he said.

"Nevertheless, the drug flow from Afghanistan is posing a serious threat to the national security of all of the central Asian CIS [confederation of independent states] and Russia. It results from the absence of a truly international approach toward stabilisation in Afghanistan."

Mr Ivanov was speaking at an international security conference in Munich where Nato countries, including Britain, debated whether to increase their military presence in Afghanistan.”

-----

Comments: It appears NATO didn’t change their policy since the date of that report, two years ago. That is horrendously disappointing considering Five of our troops were killed, one by friendly fire with several more injured. What a waste of lives to prop up this corrupt government that profits from poppy growing. Drug and war lords, corrupt politicians combined with the Taliban make a joke out of two years of NATO troop deployment and the lives that have been lost.

canuck September 5, 2006 - 5:29pm

They did change policy since then, that's what caused the problem.

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0413-01.htm

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

It was the first day of Afghanistan's new opium eradication program and the quiet town of Maiwand in Kandahar province had been chosen for action.

Hundreds of Afghan eradicators under the command of American private security contractors were going to head into the fields around the town and destroy the beautiful red and white blooms days before they could be harvested for their narcotic sap.

But instead of the peaceful, model operation that was promised as an example to demonstrate the Kabul government's serious intentions, Maiwand and its surrounding villages exploded into violence in what could be a foretaste of resistance to Western-backed efforts to bring Afghanistan's opium industry under control.

By the end of yesterday four government soldiers had been wounded by gunfire from farmers, American security contractors were said to be sheltering behind razor wire in a protected camp, and Afghan police and counter-narcotics forces had fought fierce battles which local people said left five dead. Plans to eradicate poppies were temporarily shelved in the area as political bigwigs shuttled to and fro trying to ease tensions and broker some kind of deal with the angry opium farmers.

Dense clouds of black smoke hung over the town from burning barricades, hundreds of shots rang out from gun battles, and American helicopter gunships flew low overhead.

One policeman said he had seen five bodies, but it was difficult to tell from the ambulances speeding out of the town towards hospitals one hour away in Kandahar how many had been injured in the disastrous operation.

The poppy eradication force had driven out of Kandahar two days earlier on their way towards Maiwand in a motley collection of Jeeps and trucks, bristling with firepower and wearing a remarkable array of uniforms and ethnic dress.

Friendly looking Americans chewing cigars - most of them are retired policemen hired by the security company - had waved lazily as the convoy thundered past.

Maiwan was being targeted first for eradication because it was regarded as a relatively peaceful area with effective government control. The hard cases have yet to be tackled.....

Ian Welsh September 5, 2006 - 6:08pm

to not burn the crops of the wealthier growers? Do I assume correctly that NATO just turns a blind eye to the opium problem which I don't put under the classification of benign neglect, because they know the harmful effect of heroine. By pretending the poppy growing doesnt result in opium, it makes NATO commanders and troops complicit in the growing of it.

Do US mercernaries choose whose crops they will eradicate and whose they will leave to grow or how exactly is the selection made?

canuck September 5, 2006 - 7:21pm

Huh? In 2004 NATO was turning a blind eye. In 2005 they changed their mind about it.

Ian Welsh September 5, 2006 - 10:40pm

said, and you countered "They did change policy since then, that's what caused the problem."

I had wanted to know who was receiving bribes to not destroy poppy fields from the more afluent growers. Seems like the destruction was targeted at poorer farmers and the crops from more affluent growers were allowed to continue to grow. There had to have been money changing hands for that to take place. I don't expect NATO received any of it, but who did receive it? The economy of Afghanistan is based on poppy growing and the sale that turns into Opium.

Please give clarification. Thanks.

canuck September 6, 2006 - 8:07am

NATO will get its information on what fields to burn from various locals. You bribe them, they prioritize for NATO. Simple enough. Very few, if any, NATO officers will know enough about any locale in Afghanistan to do anything other than be led around by the nose. Nonetheless, it was official NATO policy to ignore the problem in 2004. In 2005 the official policy changed to trying to stop opium production - ie. to making the problem worse.

Ian Welsh September 6, 2006 - 8:51am

for the farmers that would pay them equal to poppy growing. The alternative is of course to license poppy growing, but that's complicated and NATO would have to study how that is done. It is possible to do and I've posted several articles in the past from the Senlis Council that explains how it can be implemented.

Last I heard JustPlainDave had e-mail correspondence with a Canadian military official who 'may' have begun studying the merits of the plans from Senlis.

canuck September 6, 2006 - 9:18am

...I was speaking with the head guy of this project by the Senlis Council (I can't recall his name right now) - NDHQ, them I don't talk with (they'd know better than to take my calls ;) ). My understanding is that there is support for this type of approach, personally among a minority of military and former military folks talking on the issue in open Internet fora, what that translates to at the policy level is opaque to me, but I suspect it's less than whole hearted support for licensing.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave September 6, 2006 - 9:22am

wouldn't you think there would be more popular support to try something different rather than repeating over and over and over again expecting a different result? Follow the money is usually at the root of corruption. Money fuels the Taliban with the funds they need to pay themselves, recruit others to the cause, and to bribe officials in the Afghanistan government, war/drug lords.

canuck September 6, 2006 - 9:29am

...the licensing proposal (one of the guys that knows the most about the global drug economy thinks pretty strongly that it wouldn't work - and it ain't just that he's mouthpiece for enforcement-side strategies, either [I'll try and dig up a link later]).

In that sort of ambiguous circumstance, many folks in green will be inclined to retreat to their perceived core competencies and leave the grand strategy to the headshed. The civvie side of that headshed worries a lot about the political image created by all this - me, personally, I think they don't have the balls for it. Doesn't mean that the idea doesn't have merit, and it doesn't mean that lots of the thoughtful folks in green wouldn't consider it (to be clear, many of those same folks would probably reject it), but it does mean that it's unlikely to get seriously considered at the policy level.

Combine that sort of issue with a type of conflict (COIN) that we're feeling our way towards fighting effectively, without an established formal doctrine and you can see that the guys have a lot on their plate to consider. As the old saw goes, tough to think about draining the swamp when you're up to your ass in alligators. The whole point of successful COIN is draining the swamp, of course, but it probably looks on the ground like there's a lot of other things that would also drain the swamp in line ahead of an ambiguous licensing proposal.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave September 6, 2006 - 9:45am

The problem that I see is that no one is serious about winning this war who can actually spend money and make decisions. It all boils back to that. So they've got it on simmer and are hoping that they can either walk away quietly one day, or that when it boils over it doesn't hit them.

As you note, draining the swamp is necessary. And that means cutting off the money and cutting off the rural support. Opium legalization isn't the only possibility, but operationally, it would be the easiest and cheapest since it doesn't require teaching them to grow something else, setting up markets and infrastructure, etc... Forcing farmers into the Taliban's hands, along with their opium revenue, is the opposite of draining the swamp - they've diverted a river of people and money into the swamp.

And eventually they won't just be ass deep in aligators, they'll be over their heads.

Ian Welsh September 6, 2006 - 2:26pm

All it does is make the tax payers poorer and the drug lords richer.

I have argued this before. Putting most drugs on sale or available through pharmacies would give govt income through it's own licenced production system and taxes. Most deaths with drugs are caused by tainted or poisoned drugs.

By putting them on sale in pharmacies it not only makes them cheaper so that addicts no longer have as much need to rob and mug people, cutting down crime.

By making them easier to get and cheaper then you take away the business, (Million $) from the drug lords and crime networks. The argument that if they are legal from the pharmacy then drug use will grow does not hold water for me, as someone who has never taken cocaine, heroin or meth, I feel certain that the availability is not going to make me suddenly want to try. I think the same goes for most people.

And, all the billions of dollars saved from the WOD which currently goes to military and corporations like blackwater and halliburton could be ploughed into the police, education and social programs which will also help to reduce demand.

Of course there is a whole discussion and debate to be had on what is said above, but no debate happens. It's taboo, OMG you are crazy!

Just my two cents.

Carib

Caribdude September 6, 2006 - 10:03am

but there are lots of cases of prescription-drug dependency. Patients shop for doctors that will continue to prescribe them and if one doesn't supply enough they go to two, three, four or whatever the number it takes to feed their habit.

I don't know what the answer is, but legalizing all drugs isn't it.

Billions are spent every year on law enforcement, putting drug offenders in jail, rehabilitation programmes, and hospitalization. Methone treatments, and a wide variety of other treatments.

My brother's only son fried his brain with drugs. He was attracted to drugs before his teens, carried on with drug usage during his teens into adulthood. He's now on methone treatment for stabilization, but his brain cells will never grow back. He gets a pension because he can't work due to his impairment. He did this to himself...WHY, WHY, WHY? He broke the heart of my brother, and his Mother who are helpless to understand his behaviour. Will his children also be attracted to drugs? Is it partly hereditary that makes some people more prone than others...is there a gene responsible for something that is lacking?

Prescriptions would not have saved this youngster--he would have just shopped to fill the void.

Presently there is one drug that is legal. Alcohol. It's sold everywhere. Alcoholics never have enough! They reek carnage on the highways; alcohol destroys families. Prohibition didn't work and neither does selling it. What is the answer? Why do some people overindulge to the point of giving themselves cirrhosis of the liver and all the misery and pain they cause to themselves and others before their lives are ended? Some people have a sip of alcohol and never repeat the experience...others drown themselves in it.

There are millions of legal alcoholics, does the world need millions of legalized addicts too?

canuck September 6, 2006 - 10:31am

There is no evidence that legalization significantly increases the number of addicts. There is plenty of experience with what making drugs illegal does in terms of corruption, violence, bloated law enforcement budgets, bulging prisons and so on.

Prohibition doesn't work. Didn't work with booze, which is why it's legal (and I hate alcohol more than most people, but I wouldn't make it illegal). Doesn't work with marijuana, heroin or any other drug, either.

True addicts will do what they must in order to get their fix. That's the thing about addiction, especially psychological addiction - it becomes a drive.

Ian Welsh September 6, 2006 - 2:20pm

OK, so they are not legal, but they exist already. I also don't think legalizing of all drugs is the answer, but I think it's part of it to an extent. I think it lies more in trying to control and limit the usage and developing social and education programs than what we have now.

I think it's a farce, like Faust trying to empty a pool with a shell that has a hole in it, like the WOT.

Carib

Caribdude September 6, 2006 - 10:45pm

Now Afghanistan's primarily a rural country, and when it runs an insurgency against an invader, what it runs is a classic rural insurgency that Mao would find very familiar. The farmers are exactly the people you need to keep on your side.

Che Guevera could ahve told them what happens when you don't have the farmers on your side, too...

Shaula Evans September 5, 2006 - 9:46pm

by both sides. Pre-9/11 the US was supporting the Taliban poppy eradication program. The Taliban have reversed this position to their advantage.

Mark September 5, 2006 - 10:08pm

If they would not treat it as a war, but as a problem that has to be solved there would be fewer problems.
Declaring it as a war created more users. If it is bad, I have to try it. Been there, done it, got the t-shirt.
Just like the prohibition years.
I think I can speak on this because in the sixties I was strung out on speed. I kicked the habit, but I had to do it with help! The help I got was from friends, not government. These people knew what had to be done. At no cost to me except a few smucks to the head I got off drugs.
Will the government help anyone?
Most people want the help but the only help they will get is jail.
They will get more jailtime if they don't name their supplier.
Help will remove the problem, but war won't.
The economy is another problem that will help, but it is controlled by Bush! And his God won't help you!

repressive governments mix administrative clumsiness & inefficiency with authoritarian tendencies.

kimmy September 5, 2006 - 6:54pm

EOM

Joaquin September 5, 2006 - 7:01pm

It's still religion that keeps this planet in the ideological dark age, despites all of the technological toys and marvels that the talking monkeys come up with... muslims vs the rest of the infidel world, muslim shia vs the muslim sunnis, muslims vs hindus, catholics vs protestants, militant catholics and their inquisitions vs enlightenment(Giordano Bruno) or indigenous peoples (Central America), right-wing bible-thumping psycho-christian fundies vs abortion clinics, evolution, science, and the rest of the damned unsaved world, etc, etc, etc.

Religion has destroyed more lives and more cultures than all the so-called evil drugs put together.

And you can rest assured that there are and always have been elements within the amerikan regime that profit enormously from opium/cocaine production despite all its hypocritical rantings to the contrary. And lets all give the cia a big hand for their help in getting it into our veins and up our noses!

TimeWave 0 September 5, 2006 - 10:06pm

Religion is the Opiate of the masses but the most dangerous masses, the poor and most younger men, need the most dangerous opiate: real, vein-poppng, drugs. For the rest of us, if religion is not your cup of tea, there is television including, but not limited to, watching sports.

Joaquin September 5, 2006 - 11:06pm

will Bush finance all of his secret activities?

Personally, I keep wishing Air America would go public.

Bonddad September 5, 2006 - 8:50pm

I will never forget the shocked look on Senator Cohen’s face during a C Span broadcast in 1987 of the Iran Contra hearings while questioning a drug lord’s bookkeeper. The bookkeeper stated that planes owned by Air America/Southern Air landed at Homestead Air Force base loaded with Cocaine.

"Takes a bucket of blood for a barrel of oil"

Steven Bruton

Peter C September 6, 2006 - 9:36am

of the plane they dubbed cocaine one:


...
In the two weeks since an American DC9 airliner was busted by Mexican troops at a small airport in the Yucatan, carrying 5.5 tons of cocaine packed neatly into 128 identical black suitcases (somewhat hilariously marked 'private') the search for the true owners of the plane has produced these startling new developments...
.
The busted DC9, dubbed "Cocaine One" in an earlier story, had an identical twin, a second airliner painted with the same distinctive blue-and-white-with-gold-trim of official U.S. aircraft, the MadCowMorningNews can reveal exclusively, and under the control of the same company. Or Company.
Scoop

One would think such a large bust would be all over the news, but it wasn't. Ap had a blurb, but only offsites carry anything on it or seem to investigate it. Maybe the new Air America ;)



In these times you have to be an optimist to open your eyes when you awake in the morning. ~ Carl Sandburg

Tina September 6, 2006 - 10:48am

are the new wave of satisfaction. I have gone through this.
If you keep these drugs against the law the kids will try them.
If you keep trying to help them they will want help.
I got help, let us try to help them.
Chemicals are a burden that has to be helped.
Rather than attacking them, we should be helping them.
These drugs are a burden on us, but the only way we can control them is with working with the people who are addicted.
It will take time and a lot of work.
Is it worth it? YES.
These are the other 10% or 5% who aren't counted in the cencus of the unemployed.

repressive governments mix administrative clumsiness & inefficiency with authoritarian tendencies.

kimmy September 5, 2006 - 11:35pm

Drug addiction is a phantom menace.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2005/11/is-addiction-real.html

The NIDA says drug addiction is a genetic disease triggered by the environment. I believe that trigger is trauma.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2004/09/heroin.html

Nothing is so satisfying as persecuting the traumatized for their genetic differences. Gives you that warm fuzzy feeling don't it?

Do Republicans support drug prohibition because it finances criminals or because it finances terrorists?

Republican Socialism. Price supports for criminals and terrorists.

Catchy don't you think?

Do they still teach alcohol prohibition in schools?

msimon October 28, 2006 - 1:35pm

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