SearchUser loginNavigationTeam Agonist
Universal Pantograph provides technical support for The Agonist. ThoughtfulAbu Aardvark GlobalTimelyMixed Bag of Candy: Who's onlineSyndicate |
Opium, Insurgency and the Ruin of AmericaVia the NYTimes I read:
This is, of course, another example of the triumph of western ideology and political correctness over realism and pragmatism. During the first few years of the Afghani occupation there was little attempt by NATO to crack down on opium production. There was also little attempt to rebuild the country or provide ways for the majority of Afghani farmers to make a living other than opium cultivation. In a sense that neglect, while shortsighted, was fine. Then NATO became stunningly stupid and decided to go after opium cultivation seriously without flooding the country with enough money to replace the lost income. At the time I predicted that it would cause a huge backlash, and it has done so. The implicit deal between the US and the warlords and tribes was that they would help the US oust the Taliban for bribes and for the right to grow opium again, which the Taliban had taken away from them, thus depriving them of independent income. (A smart move if you have a central government which actually has the ability to control the countryside, but a stupid move if you don't.) There were a couple ways this could have been handled. The coalition could have actually flooded the country with money and rebuilt it, so that there was opportunity other than opium growing. At that point, cracking down on opium growing could have been acceptable - it would have bothered some people, but not caused mass discontent. Or they could have designated Afghanistan to grow legal opium, and directly paid the farmers more than they could get for selling it illegally (there's a huge legal market, but frankly, even if they grew too much, paying for it and then burning it would be cheap for the peace it provides.) Now Afghanistan's primarily a rural country, and when it runs an insurgency against an invader, what it runs is a classic rural insurgency that Mao would find very familiar. The farmers are exactly the people you need to keep on your side. Lose them and you've lost the country - the cities are largely irrelevant. They fall first to an invader, and last to an insurgency because they aren't where the power in the country resides. This sort of arteriosclerosis of the mind, this inability to think beyond our own shibolleths like "drugs bad" is exactly what is causing us to lose and lose and lose again and again. We're more powerful than our enemies but it doesn't matter, because we are inflexible, clumsy, cheap and hidebound. The insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan show more strategic flexibility than we do, while Hezbollah shows more tactical flexibility and innnovation than any western military in decades. They are learning, they are adapting. We just keep trying the same thing over and over again, expecting that the results will be different from the last failure. And we keep trying to overpower situations. This is as evident in the failed US domestic drug war as it is in the failed Afghani drug war. Somehow despite 30 years of failure the US thinks that if they just try harder, drug interdiction and heavy penalties will reduce drug use. And this general inability to reverse course, to realize that if you'red digging a hole in the ground at a cost of billions of dollars and it isn't going anywhere, you need to stop, is destroying the US and everyone else who engages in it. For a long time the assumption was that it didn't matter - there was money for as much stupidity as we felt like. That was always an illusion - there was credit for as much stupidity as we felt like, but that credit is damn near running out, and is no longer sufficient for every stupidity under the sun. So, in Afghanistan; in Iraq; in the Levant and at home, it's time to stop wasting money, effort and lives. Not doing so won't just lead to defeat in multiple wars; it won't just lead to disasters like Katarina - it is within a decade of leading to the ruin of America. Ian Welsh September 5, 2006 - 4:36pm
|
![]() Premium Advertising
Advertise Liberally |