Who's the Government in Lebanon?


As predicted, Hezbollah is taking the lead in reconstruction in a significant way. Let's run through this, because it is important.

Nehme Y. Tohme, a member of Parliament from the anti-Syrian reform bloc and the country’s minister for the displaced, said he had been told by Hezbollah officials that when the shooting stopped, Iran would provide Hezbollah with an “unlimited budget” for reconstruction.

Not only did the US give Israel the green light to bomb the hell out of Lebanon, but it and its allies aren't giving the Lebanese government that sort of money, are they? And note also the oil money connection - Iran could afford to give Hezbollah all those weapons because of the price of oil. It can afford to give Hezbollah all that money because of... the price of oil. Meanwhile the US is broke and most European countries have significant budget deficits and high unemployment. While there is a demand side surge that contributed to high oil prices in the last few years, US actions, both monetarily and militarily, have contributed significantly to the rise in prices. And in so doing, the US gave Iran billions which Iran used to fight America's proxy, Israel, and win.

While the Israelis began their withdrawal, hundreds of Hezbollah members spread over dozens of villages across southern Lebanon began cleaning, organizing and surveying damage. Men on bulldozers were busy cutting lanes through giant piles of rubble. Roads blocked with the remnants of buildings are now, just a day after a cease-fire began, fully passable.

In Sreifa, a Hezbollah official said the group would offer an initial $10,000 to residents to help pay for the year of rent, to buy new furniture and to help feed families.

One day - roads clear.

In Taibe, a town of fighting so heavy that large chunks were missing from walls and buildings where they had been sprayed with bullets, the Audi family stood with two Hezbollah volunteers, looking woefully at their windowless, bullet- and shrapnel-torn house.

Has FEMA even let most of the poorest people who fled Katrina go home, let alone helped them rebuild? As we go through this article remember that comparison. If you had lost your house and had to flee a disaster, who would you rather have helping you, FEMA, or the "terrorist organization" Hezbollah?

In Bint Jbail, Hezbollah ambulances — large, new cars with flashing lights on the top — ferried bodies of fighters to graves out of mountains of rubble.

Oh, so they aren't just doing the repairs, they're also burying the bodies. I would add that they have those ambulances because they also provide most of the medical care in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s reputation as an efficient grass-roots social service network — as opposed to the Lebanese government, regarded by many here as sleek men in suits doing well — was in evidence everywhere. Young men with walkie-talkies and clipboards were in the battered Shiite neighborhoods on the southern edge of Bint Jbail, taking notes on the extent of the damage.

“Hezbollah’s strength,” said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a professor at the Lebanese American University here, who has written extensively about the organization, in large part derives from “the gross vacuum left by the state.”

Hezbollah was not, she said, a state within a state, but rather “a state within a nonstate, actually.”

One of the biggest problems that we have when dealing with organizations like Hezbollah is our refusal to see beyond the legal forms. Because the UN recognizes a Lebanese "government" in Beiruit, and recognizes a State called Lebanon led by that government we think it's the government. But when you look at the reality on the ground you find that Hezbollah is far more of a government in southern Lebanon, on every metric except legal ones - they run the military, they run the hospitals, they pick up the trash, they give out pensions, etc... I know regular readers are probably sick of me beating this dead horse, but it's worth beating a bit more because this has a lot to do with why the US is losing in Iraq, with the rise of Hamas and the Islamic Courts Union, and even with the resurgence of the Taliban.

Sheik Nasrallah said in his speech that “the brothers in the towns and villages will turn to those whose homes are badly damaged and help rebuild them.

“Today is the day to keep up our promises,” he said. “All our brothers will be in your service starting tomorrow.” ...

...Hezbollah men also traveled door to door checking on residents and asking them what help they needed.

Although Hezbollah is a Shiite organization, Sheik Nasrallah’s message resounded even with a Sunni Muslim, Ghaleb Jazi, 40, who works at the oil storage plant at Jiyeh, 15 miles south of Beirut. It was bombed by the Israelis and spewed pollution northward into the Mediterranean.

“The government may do some work on bridges and roads, but when it comes to rebuilding houses, Hezbollah will have a big role to play,” he said. “Nasrallah said yesterday he would rebuild, and he will come through.”

Notice the outreach to communities other than the Shia. Smart, very smart. And notice that a Sunni considers Nasrallah a man of his word.

Defense Minister Elias Murr said Tuesday that the government would not seek to disarm Hezbollah.

“The army is not going to the south to strip the Hezbollah of its weapons and do the work that Israel did not,” he said, showing just how difficult reining in the militia will most likely be in the coming weeks and months. He added that “the resistance,” meaning Hezbollah, had been cooperating with the government and there was no need to confront it.

Sheik Nasrallah sounded much like a governor responding to a disaster when he said, “So far, the initial count available to us on completely demolished houses exceeds 15,000 residential units.

“We cannot of course wait for the government and its heavy vehicles and machinery because they could be a while,” he said. He also cautioned, “No one should raise prices due to a surge in demand.”

Nasrallah just imposed wage and price controls on Southern Lebanon. And you can bet that his imposition will be obeyed. Notice also that the government has no intention of confronting Hezbollah's military.

One of the great ironies of this whole episode is that the Americans thought Israel would damage Hezbollah so the Lebanese government could disarm them. Hezbollah's success has significantly weakened the government, and given Hezbollah an effective veto in a lot of situations. And Hezbollah's success in rebuilding will seal the deal.

Support for Hezbollah was likely to become stronger, Professor Saad-Ghorayeb said, because of the weakness of the central government.

“Hezbollah has two pillars of support,” she said, “the resistance and the social services. What this war has illustrated is that it is best at both.

Referring to Shiek Nasrallah, she said: “He tells the people, ‘Don’t worry, we’re going to protect you. And we’re going to reconstruct. This has happened before. We will deliver.’ ”

What Hezbollah recognizes is this - power flows from the bottom up. This is the antithesis of the way that the US government operates, where job one is to take from the poor and middle class and give to the rich. Hezbollah takes care of the people. In return... the people take care of Hezbollah.

The US government uses money to cut people out, Hezbollah uses money to bring people in.


Ian Welsh August 16, 2006 - 4:04pm

I'm not yet very hopeful that there will be a significant rebuilding before Israel makes another incursion (at least by air) into the area. But it's also clear that the Israelis will think twice before they go off and "crush" Hezbollah again.

In any case, I sincerely hope that the Hezbollah have a better plan for launch sites this time, since they have to rebuild, lets hope they get some zoning in order.

Joes Bar and Grill August 16, 2006 - 3:50pm

LOL. Actually what has become clear is that the Israelis flattened a lot of towns where there were never launchers.

I do agree that there may be a new war soon. A lot depends on how desperate Olmert is.

If not, there's a good chacne that Likud will come back into power with a mandate for a second attempt. Hezbollah knows this and a lot of their element of surprise will be gone next time around. Whether the IDF can adapt to known facts on the ground is the question.

Ian Welsh August 16, 2006 - 3:53pm

I am hesitant to believe that. Can you corroborate?

I don't think the IDF can vanquish Hezbollah, even if they come back with full strength, and I think the wiser heads in Israel recognise this now. That may just put Labor back on top, who can say? (I can dream, cant I?)

Much hinges as well on the strength and accuracy of the rockets which are launched next. Much more depends on how Hezbollah reloads, than on how well they rebuild. They'll have to strike much harder to invoke a new response from Israel, but if they do, then the rebuilding money is best used farther north... just like in Louisiana, the hurricane is going to come again.

Joes Bar and Grill August 16, 2006 - 4:09pm

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=34189

I am inclined to believe them.

Also the general Hezbollah strategy has been to stay away from civilians, not necessarily because they care about civilian casualties, but because it only takes one informer.

And remember, northern Sunni and Christian towns which unquestionably had no Hezbollah launchers in them were also hit.

None of which is to say that there weren't rockets launched from towns, there definitely were. But not all Israeli bombing can be explained that way. Not even close. What they did was a classic strategic bombing campaign designed to destroy all infrastructure and break civilian morale.

Ian Welsh August 16, 2006 - 4:23pm

Your point is well taken, at least regarding the eventual strategy of the bombing campaign. Initially, however, the intentions were somewhat less grand. It was only when they realized that the rockets were not being destroyed as they'd hoped, that they began the escalation, which was both amateurish and cruel.

I'm not asking that the Hezbollah build military bases so that the Israelis will know where to strike in the future, but it would be impressive to see them make more judicious use of available cover.

Perhaps even more impressive than this grand rebuilding effort.

Joes Bar and Grill August 16, 2006 - 4:35pm

If:

-Oil prices stay relatively high, and,
-The U.S. continues to either remain ineffectual in Iraq or defacto backers of the official, Shiite "government", and
-Over time, the Shiite militias can fight off the Sunni and Kurd militias,

Iran has every reason to financially support SCIRI and other protege organizations and help them develop into both social and security organizations, providing some stability and economic growth to the areas they control. This could be southern Iraq, or perhaps even most of Iraq.

The Kurdish areas may be the only parts of Iraq that Iran cannot control, but still, the southern oil fields, combined with their own reserves, would present a formidable Iranian presence in world markets.

The Hezbollah model, applied patiently to Iraq, creates a new Shiite crescent.

Numerian August 16, 2006 - 4:52pm

What happens when Hizbullah's performance in southen Lebanon results in it becoming the Lebanese government, with unfettered access to modern weaponry and real support from Iran? Will Israel launch yet another sneak attack on an Arab neighbor a la 1967, further inflaming the populations of the Middle East? Israel's actions this month have created this reality. It just doesn't happen to be the one they had originally intended.

VizierVic August 16, 2006 - 5:00pm

are nothing short of insanely stupid. At the beginning of this offensive, Hezbollah was a terrorist organization, disliked even by many arabs in Lebanon as extremist, vicious and criminal. They were entrenched, armed and organized, but they were also, by choice, largely isolated from the population.

The first step of counter insurgency - Isolate - was partially achieved. The next key steps would have been to Concentrate their forces and then use massed firepower to Anhilate them. In fighting guerillas, the main military power wants to concentrate the rebellion, force them to a stand up battle, away from the population, and then use the decisive advantage of a standing military. The guerilla/insurgency/decentralized force wants the reverse - force the main power to fight in the middle of populated areas, disperse forces and survive decisive single encounters. The guerillas want to attack hard points by surprise, the military power wants to make the rolling offensive an entity without hard points and without peripheries to strike.

Israel, by engaging in a wide spread bombing campaign, proceded to blunder away its firepower advantage, by attacking the symptom - rocket launchings into Israel - it turned the initiative over to Hezbollah, by slaughtering civilians - many times more than Hezbollah was able to - it squandered its moral capital. By attacking across Lebanon with strikes, it made everyone in Lebanon sympathetic to the "resistence", which is Hezbollah. By taking Lebanese army personal prisoner, it forced the government's hand.

At the end of the campaign, Hezbollah is now integrated everywhere with the civilian population. It is now the effective government of Southern Lebanon. Israel - except in the eyes of its racist defenders, has squandered political capital. No one is willing to face the entity which Olmert's offensive created.

"It is worse than a crime, it is a mistake." This is what Talleyrand told Napolean, and over and over again in history, the lesson is hammered home. Catastrophic blunders - in this case metastasizing Hezbollah - are worse than mere crimes, because they are the gift that keeps on giving.

The last two decades and some has seen a series of invasions which turned into catastrophic blunders - from Saddams invasion of Kuwait, through the Serbian invasions in the break up of Yugoslavia, to the US invasion of Iraq, to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. There is a major book to be written on this era, where blitzkrieg invasions, or attempts at same, produce political failure.

Olmert will deserve a chapter of his own. But no more than a chapter, because he is walking a well worn road.

Stirling Newberry August 16, 2006 - 6:53pm

Talk to some actual Lebanese and you may get a real different picture about how beloved Hezbollah is in their country.
If you don't know any Lebanese go read this Lebanese blog http://lebanesebloggers.blogspot.com/2006/08/hassan-nasrallah-enough.html

Israel clearly did not achieve all of their objectives in this campaign, and they are already deep into self-analysis and self-criticism. It will be interesting to see if the current Kadima led government is able to survive and what will arise in its place. To try and paint the story as a huge victory for Hezbollah is a page right out of Sheik Nasrallah's or Bashar Assad's propaganda playbook. As much as you would like the Israelis to have gotten their asses kicked in this conflict, the reality on the ground is that they got Hezbollah off their border. While they lost quite a few soldiers (115), it is still a tiny number from a military perspective. No doubt there were quite a few more Hezbollah fighters killed in action than Hezbollah will admit to. Hezbollah basically had Lebanon ruined. And for what? If I were Lebanese, I doubt I'd think of all this as victory for Lebanon. Clearly the Israelis are asking themselves hard questions about their decision making and judgement, and are not satisfied with the results of the last 5 weeks. If not seeing Israel as a total loser in this war with Hezbollah makes me a racist defender of Israel, than what does that make you - an anti-semitic apologist for Hezbollah? See how those characterizations boomerang on you?

Sully August 16, 2006 - 10:06pm

Error of generalizing from too small a sample. Polls show majority support from all 4 major population groups, including Druze.

Whether Israel got them off the border, we will see - if you think the Lebanese army is going to stop Hezbollah from doing anything it feels like...

In any case, being on the border is largely irrelevant. They haven't even been pushed back far enough that their shortest range missiles can't still hit northern Israel. It's not as if Hezbollah ever intended to invade Israel.

Olmert defined the victory conditions. He didn't achieve them. Israel lost. The fallcy of equating casualty counts with victory conditions is tiresome. The US killed North Vietnamese and Viet Cong troops at a 10:1 ration. Guess the US must have won that war.

Ian Welsh August 16, 2006 - 10:33pm

...my mind as well. I believe it was Giap who famously said words to the effect "That is true. It is also irrelevant." when told that American forces hadn't lost a single significant combat against the NVA. One of the Haaretz (IIRC) commentators sparked the parallel by essentially arguing for a decoupling of the military and the political - saying that narrowly defined this wasn't a military defeat. While I have some time for this, I'd have to say that political aspects far outweigh this. I don't think the situation is so clearly good Hizbullah bad Israel as most commentators seem to, but I also don't see signs of any effective plan for impeding Hizbullah's likely significant gains out of this. Yes, they (the IDF) have probably reduced the threat that Hizbullah poses in terms of long range advanced systems, but they've paid a far, far higher price for this than they needed to and they've changed things so dramatically that I'm not sure it's going to matter much at all in the long run. Not to beat my dead horse again, but they should have stuck with clearly delineated and limited objectives.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave August 16, 2006 - 10:48pm

It isn't black and white, Israel/Hezbollah, no. I tend to emphasize the Hezbollah side simply because the media is very heavily Israeli, and because I see multiple errors of categorization with regards to Hezbollah which I think it is important to correct.

In an ideal world Hezbollah would indeed disarm. The problem is... neither side trusts the other, and with good reason on both sides. And we aren't really giving the Lebanese government what it needs in order to gain the support of the southern Shia and take that away from Hezbollah.

We keep trying to do everything the hard war and we're too cheap on the soft ways.

Ian Welsh August 16, 2006 - 10:59pm

is desperate to spin this as a win for Olmert and Israel. The facts on the ground are simple:

1. Hezbollah is in control of the contested ground, and will not disarm.
2. Hezbollah has reëntered areas evacuated by Israel.
3. Hezbollah remained in control of strategic points and is recognized as a "state within a state"

The facts are fairly clear: Hezbollah is in control of the territory, exercises fiat over almost all of it, holds the majority of strategic points, performs governmental functions.

Perhaps Americans tied up in Iraq have forgotten what winning looks like. Hezbollah won this engagement, tactically and strategically. That they lost more fighters is unimportant, Grant lost more men than Lee. Lee still surrendered to Grant.

The Israeli military is already doing an after action assessment on the assumption that they lost this conflict militarily. The surreality community needs to start doing the same thing, particularly in light of the reports from a variety of quarters that this offensive was planned well in advance, and that it was at least tacitly supported by the US.

All in all, it looks very much like the Fallujah offensive, only going even worse for the established military force. A long planned offensive, launched at a bad time because of provocation, and failing to destroy the guerillas as an effective fighting force.

Stirling Newberry August 16, 2006 - 11:21pm

How Israel suffered a knock-out

...When the largest and strongest army in the Middle East clashes for more than two weeks with 50 Hezbollah fighters in Bint Jbail and does not bring them to their knees, the commanders are left with no choice but to point to the number of dead fighters the enemy has left behind. It can be assumed that Bint Jbail will turn into a symbol of the second Lebanon war. For the Hezbollah fighters it will be remembered as their Stalingrad, and for us it will be a painful reminder of the IDF's defeat.

....And herein lies the most serious failure of this war. In Damascus, Gaza, Tehran and Cairo, too, people are looking with amazement at the IDF that could not bring a tiny guerrilla organization (1,500 fighters according to the military intelligence chief, and a few thousand according to other sources) to its knees for more than a month, the IDF that was defeated and paid a heavy price in most of its battles in southern Lebanon. And most serious of all: an IDF that has not neutralized Hezbollah's ability to fire rockets and keep more than 1 million Israeli citizens sitting in shelters for more than four weeks. What happened to this mighty army, which after a month was not able to advance more than a few kilometers into Lebanon? wonder many of those who are planning their next wars against Israel.

....Once again there were surprises and failures, some of which were based on the mistaken concept of Hezbollah's capacities. The militia's success in surprising an IDF patrol and abducting two soldiers - the catalyst for the war - stems from a military intelligence failure. IDF intelligence did not assess correctly Hezbollah's fighting capability, did not know about the tunnels next to the organization's strongholds, and erred in its assessments of the deployment inside Bint Jbail, and there were many more other intelligence failures.

The navy's intelligence failed because it did not know about the Iranian land-to-sea missiles in Hezbollah's hands, and its assessments about Hezbollah's ability to fire rockets were mistaken. Hezbollah's successful handling of anti-tank missiles also revealed an intelligence failure that resembles to a large extent that of the 1973 war. The Patriot missile batteries stationed near Haifa and Safed were announced by the IDF with much fanfare. The wide media coverage given to these deployments was supposed to quiet residents' fears. Since then we have not heard a single word about that wonderful defense system. As far as is known, not even one attempt was made to knock down missiles fired at Haifa and Hadera.

.....The state allocates some 11 billion dollars annually for the defense budget. Almost 15 percent of the GNP is devoted to security. (The official figure is 10 percent, but this does not include all the investments in security issues). But when the reservists are called up, they discover that they lack basic equipment: flak jackets, helmets, vehicles and even stretchers. Entire units were forced to fight more than 24 hours without food or water.

stunster August 17, 2006 - 4:14am

After 34 days of war, Hizbullah turns its attention to rebuilding southern Lebanon

· 15,000 families promised year's rent and furniture
· Iran to fund estimated $150m reconstruction

Declan Walsh in Bint Jbail
Thursday August 17, 2006
The Guardian

For 34 days they doggedly fought off the mighty Israeli army. But as a three-day-old ceasefire gathers traction, Hizbullah's hardened fighters are swapping their missile launchers for spades, brooms and briefcases of cash.

As refugees flood back to their war-ravaged villages, Hizbullah has flung itself to the front of the burgeoning reconstruction effort in southern Lebanon, funded with a deluge of petro-dollars from neighbouring Iran.

"We want to bring south Lebanon back to life and rebuild it better than it was before the war," said Nabil Kaouk, Hizbullah's top official in southern Lebanon, standing before the group's flattened headquarters building in Tyre.

In nearby villages, his supporters were already hard at work. Hizbullah activists in T-shirts and green caps cleared rubble-strewn roads and piles of rotting refuse, and ferried the dead and wounded through the scrub-covered hills in shiny modern ambulances.

But the most extravagant element of Hizbullah's plan is to provide a year's rent and a set of new furniture for every family whose house has been destroyed. The promise was made by Hizbullah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, within hours of Monday's ceasefire.

The housing scheme will benefit 15,000 families, Mr Nasrallah said, and will cost up to $150m, according to one estimate. Funding will come from oil-rich Iran, which until now has mostly supplied Hizbullah with thousands of missiles used against Israel.

Yesterday in Beirut, hundreds of refugees shuffled through a registration centre where officials noted their losses and made promises of help. The cash will be spent in towns such as Bint Jbail, near the southern border, where entire neighbourhoods have been razed.

"There is no central government presence here. Hizbullah is doing everything," said local official Hamed Harab, standing outside the bomb-pocked town hospital.

more



In these times you have to be an optimist to open your eyes when you awake in the morning. ~ Carl Sandburg

Tina August 16, 2006 - 11:29pm

It's becoming clearer to me that the whole GWOT is really a hidden scheme to make Iran the Middle Eastern superpower.

Consider that the US took out the Taliban, one of Iran's big worries, when all it was really after was Osama bin Laden (whom they still don't have).

Next, the US deposed Saddam Hussein, one of Iran's sworn enemies and a real troublemaker for them. They then handed the government over to pro-Iranian Shi'ites.

Then the US "encouraged" (or maybe prodded) Israel to "nullify" 5,000 Hizbullah guerillas and got their clock pretty well cleaned in the process. Don't you think the IDF is having some second thoughts about taking on the people who trained the Hizbullah fighters?

And finally, the US has so thoroughly messed things up that the price of oil is aiming for the stars.

I figure that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad owes George W. Bush one heck of a Christmas present. I figure that PNAC is just a smokescreen.

Petronius August 17, 2006 - 12:05am

US tries to counter Hizbollah rebuilding efforts
17 Aug 2006 22:55:26 GMT

By Sue Pleming

WASHINGTON, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Concerned that Hizbollah has an early advantage in rebuilding shattered south Lebanon, the Bush administration is trying to speed up aid and encouraging Arab states to step in quickly, U.S. officials said this week.

The White House is "cracking the whip" on rebuilding efforts so Iranian-backed Hizbollah is not seen taking the lead and winning any more support among the local population, said a senior State Department official.

"I've said we have got to get with this. These guys (Hizbollah) are out there with their own bulldozers and what are we doing? It takes forever for us to start up rebuilding projects," said the senior official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

The United States came under heavy criticism from Arab countries and some European governments during the monthlong war between Israel and Hizbollah that halted with a U.N.-ordered truce this week.

Washington was criticized for refusing to back calls for an immediate cease-fire, thereby appearing to give a green light to extensive Israeli bombing in Lebanon.

The United States has pledged $50 million so far to humanitarian aid in Lebanon, half of which has been handed out to aid groups working in the conflict zone. But a senior U.S. official said it was unclear how much Washington would contribute to rebuilding.

A donors conference on humanitarian aid is set for Aug. 31 in Stockholm and a later one may be held to deal directly with repairing Lebanon's shattered infrastructure. Bridges and roads took a pounding in the conflict.

Any large-scale U.S.-funded rebuilding effort could take months, just as it did in Iraq where the Bush administration's efforts are still faltering.

TOO SLOW

American officials worry that that Hizbollah and Iran will take advantage of U.S. bureaucracy surrounding aid efforts and boost their own credibility by getting in first.

"We have been delivering stuff from the beginning (of the conflict) but we need to get something much more substantial on the ground," said the State Department official.

Hizbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah vowed after Monday's truce that his guerrilla group would help fund repairs for about 15,000 bomb-damaged homes across Lebanon.

White House spokesman Tony Snow said Hizbollah was using the same tactics as the Palestinian militant group Hamas and al Qaeda in getting on the ground quickly to rebuild.

"This is an emerging tactic, which is commit acts of terror, try to get people to fight against each other, and set up a charitable foundation to hand out cash and crumbs to the victims," Snow told reporters.

A senior U.S. aid agency official Bill Garvelink said the near-term focus would be on helping to rebuild people's homes and that American engineers were in the area assessing damage to bridges and roads.

The United States is pushing Arab states like Saudi Arabia to deliver aid fast to southern Lebanon. Saudi Arabia has committed half-a-billion dollars to humanitarian relief and promised another billion for rebuilding.

Israel is nervous that Iranian funding will be used by Hizbollah and is pushing for tight restrictions on such assistance, telling the Bush administration to tighten up any loopholes. (Additional reporting by Steve Holland)



In these times you have to be an optimist to open your eyes when you awake in the morning. ~ Carl Sandburg

Tina August 17, 2006 - 6:34pm

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