The War Ends When Both Sides Say It Ends, Not When the UN Makes A Resolution


Let's put this real simply. Hezbollah says the won't stop fighting till all Israeli troops leave Lebanon. Israel doesn't seem to intend to leave.

The fighting will go on until Israel leaves or Hezbollah can't fight any longer.

The smart money isn't on Israel.

(Robert Fisk says the same thing, at greater length. Worth reading.)


Ian Welsh August 14, 2006 - 2:04am

Breaking News

August 14

Hezbollah today distributed leaflets congratulating Lebanon on its “big victory” and thanking citizens for their patience during the 34-day war with Israel.

Supporters of the guerrilla group were seen passing out leaflets to cars heading south on the Zahrani highway, which connects the hard-hit southern cities of Nabatiyeh, Tyre and Sidon.

“Congratulations to you on the big victory, with the support of God, the mujahedeen (holy warriors) and your patience,” it read.

The flyers also warned people not to touch any suspicious objects, which could be unexploded ordnance.

stonehouse August 14, 2006 - 3:57am

Hizballah's military performance was nothing short of astonishing.

A guerilla force of at most 5,000 facing 30,000 IDF troops, 600 Merkavas, 1000 APCs, 300 F16s, 50 Apaches, numerous drones, 100 mobile artillery units, 2 Corps of Engineers, 10 satellites, numerous naval craft, the CIA, Shin Bet, Mossad and Aman. Proportionately to population base, the IDF's losses are like the United States losing 6000 troops in one month of fighting.

Despite all the claims made by the Zionist political and military leadership starting from day 1, Hizballah were still able to kill dozens of Israeli soldiers in the last days of the war, still able to hit Israel with 250 rockets yesterday, including longer range ones; still able to hit Israeli tanks by the score. Several Israeli naval vessels attacked, several Israeli helicopters downed. Arabic sources reported that IDF command centers in Israel were targeted in a number of rocket attacks. And IDF soldiers almost uniformly testified to the military skill and bravery of the Hizballah fighters.

Frankly, I'm amazed. The Arab world has never seen such feats performed by an Arab armed force before.

It was nice to see Bill Kristol on Fox yesterday saying, "Frankly, Iran won", and Charles Krauthammer on the same show call for Olmert's ouster. They know what happened here.

In a war designed to secure Israel's northern border in preparation for an attack on Iran, Hizballah's victory paradoxically makes such attack all the more urgent in the neocon/Zionist mindset.

I couldn't be the only one who noticed every single Israeli/neocon/US TV talking head---a cast of thousands---ritually and in total lockstep invoke the Iranian specter during this crisis.

Do not be surprised if a story appears soon in the media that the same type of explosive gels intended for use by the London airplane bombing plotters may also be manufactured at an Iranian chemical plant.

stunster August 14, 2006 - 6:59am

Do not be surprised if a story appears soon in the media that the same type of explosive gels intended for use by the London airplane bombing plotters may also be manufactured at an Iranian chemical plant.

And then after that the news that Iran could mix radioactive materials and anthrax in the gel to make a world-destroying WMD out of a can of Red Bull and an iPod.

That can be delivered by stratospheric robot recon drones.

With bad words painted on them.

And the drones are gay too, but contagious gay, the kind that can be spread by granting someone rights. Gay contagious liberal Islamofascist radioactive stratospheric robot drones.

Escher Sketch August 14, 2006 - 11:08am

that the anthrax should be genetically modified, using stem cell research, to affect only those who love 'freedoms'.

stonehouse August 14, 2006 - 12:20pm

but you can't say "genetically modified"; Monsanto called and ruled it out.

"Genetically Modified" is actually Corporate English for "we're certain enough that there will be no adverse results two human generations downstream that we'll happily feed it to your children to prove it".

Escher Sketch August 14, 2006 - 12:37pm

Can we kill whales with them too?

"Lord! What fools these Mortals be!"

Doug Richardson August 14, 2006 - 7:11pm

eom

stunster August 14, 2006 - 12:17pm

Nasrallah: “we are facing today a strategic and historic victory”

The Israeli army withdraws from the eastern sector of the south Lebanon border region

Olmert vows that the Israeli army would continue to pursue the leaders of Hizbullah "everywhere all the time"

The commander of UNIFIL met with Lebanese and Israeli army officers on the Lebanon-Israel border to discuss Israel’s pullout from the south and the Lebanese army deployment there, a UN spokesman says
Al-Jazeera says the Israeli army withdrew from the southern town of Marjayoun to northern Israel

www.naharnet.com

Nasrallah: Will help rebuild homes

Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a Monday night address broadcasted by al-Manar that "from a historical and strategic perspective – Hizbullah won the war."

He further said that he would work, instead of the Lebanese government, to rebuild damaged homes and would provide preliminary financial aid to south Lebanon residents whose homes had been destroyed. (Ali Waked and Roee Nahmias)

(08.14.06, 20:51)

Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in an al-Manar broadcast "Soon I will address people in public squares and tell them the details of what happened."

The statement was a response to Ehud Olmert's speech to the Knesset plenum Sunday, in which the PM declared that Israel would continue to track down Hizbullah operatives. (Ali Waked)

(08.14.06, 20:34)

ynetnews.com

stunster August 14, 2006 - 1:15pm

52 percent of Israelis: IDF failed

Survey: 58 percent believe Israel only achieved small part of objectives, if at all; Kadima, Labor would crash were elections held today, poll shows
Ilan Marciano

A Globes-Smith survey published on Monday showed that the majority of Israelis (52 percent) believe the IDF was unsuccessful in its Lebanon offensive, as opposed to 44 percent who believe the army did well.

According to the survey, 58 percent of the public believes Israel achieved few if any objectives in the war, up from 16 percent 11 days ago.

The survey showed that only 3 percent of Israelis believe that the country achieved most or all of its pre-war objectives, down from 33 percent a week ago.

According to the survey, were the elections held today Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s Kadima party would receive less than 20 mandates (as opposed to the 29 it received in the March elections), while Defense Minister Amir Peretz’s Labor party would receive only 12 mandates (as opposed to the 19 it obtained in the recent elections).

66 percent: Ceasefire agreement not good

Overall, 60 percent of those who voted for Kadima and Labor said they would not vote for them, with most becoming undecided voters at this time.

The picture emerging from the new survey is fundamentally different from the one prevalent during the month of the war in the North, where the public expressed its support for both the government and military – positions that can be characterized as "patriotic."

About half the public believes the ceasefire would be maintained for longer than a month, while 35 percent think it would only last a
week.

Only six percent of respondents said they thought the Security Council resolution that ended the fighting is good and achieves most of Israel's objections. Meanwhile, 66 percent believe the agreement is not good – only a quarter of those said this is the best agreement that can be obtained under the circumstances. Overall, 38 percent said the deal is not good but Israel had no choice but to accept it.

(08.14.06, 19:42)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3291214,00.html

stunster August 14, 2006 - 12:28pm

with George Friedman:

Doesn’t see that the cease fire will hold and believes there will be constant battling after a short lull. Israel wants: the rockets to stop and for Hizbullah to be south of the river.

Hizbullah even if it withdraws, will have its main forces in place to continue to fight.

The Peacekeeping force would have to engage in combat with Hizbullah to stop them. They would have to suppress Israel forces too—just too big of an undertaking.

Israel has not accomplished much. The big winner is Hizbullah—it stood up to Israel and fought them to a standstill. If the war ended with today’s results, it would change the middle east and that is something Israel doesn’t want to happen—they will continue to fight.

-----

Comments: Not an encouraging report especially to the Lebanese population, some of whom are in the process of returning to their homes.

canuck August 14, 2006 - 12:57pm

Hezbollah isn't going to leave the south of Lebanon.

Israel can have the missiles stop - that's what they can get. If they want more they'll have to win it, and so far they haven't won anything.

Ian Welsh August 14, 2006 - 1:54pm

First, he talked about the sacrifices of all the Martyrs.
__________________
He is saying that all the houses that are destroyed in the south, I would like to all the families not to worry, today, I will tell you my promise, that you have nothing to worry about, and go anywhere, you will be assisted by our brothers starting tomorrow.

We will not wait for the government to assist you, we will give all the families money to rent a house for at least a year including furniture. Tomorrow, we will start this service to all the families.
__________________
We will provide housing for over 15,000 households.

Second, we will rebuild very soon with our assistance.

I ask all the engineers, we are here, we ask everyone not to price gouge and respect our families. I ask all Citizens to assist one another with love and respect.

I ask all students, engineers, teachers to go to the streets and rebuild, even if it is just a few hours a day, we can achieve it.
__________________
Lastly,

About the HAs weapons a few days ago. My brothers and sisters, during the battles, your resistance movement, there were discussion on our weapons and about the army in the south and the UN. What is our position about Resistance?

This was going on before and after the UN resolution. After the UN resolution, some ministers in the government were talking on TV and radio and grew and grew out in the open. It was supposed to be discussed in closed doors but not out in the open. Some ministers took out to the open and that was not right.

This does not serve our interests but serves the Israeli enemy. Some still want to take Lebanon to interests that do not represent Lebanon.

I ask these ministers who took this issue out to the open, and this was a very grave mistake.

Mistake 1: this is Unethical from their part. Lebanon was under heavy bombardment, but mostly in the south, beqaa and the south of beirut. During this, 1 million lebanese refugees, and 15,000 houses destroyed, and many massacres was taking place and you saw them on Television. AND during Israelis failed
Under ALL THIS, some ministers get into discussions under their air conditionsed rooms while sitting on their couches, and talk about us the resistance. How can they have ethics and morals, how can they all be true Lebanese when their brothers and sisters are getting killed.

This is a grave mistake by them.
__________________
We stood up with our heads proud, while our enemy is showing humiliations.

Second, again about the HA and the weapons south of the Litani. What about the weapons north of the Litani, what about the weapons in other parts of Lebanon.

This does not work, please don't get into "pressures" don't waste your time in discsussing this. The american/israeli war is about HA weapons. The strongest army in the middle east could not remove the weapons.

To you local ministers, you are giving in to the American and Israeli demands. Did the local ministers get any guarantees about who will protect us from Israeli agression? Any Israeli government knows that any war in Lebanon is a complete failure.

About the army, we are ok with the army in the south, but the army is not capable in defending the south. UN also can't do anything about protecting Lebanon even with 10 15 thousand soldiers.
__________________
Nasrallah :

Build a strong goverment and a strong Army and then come and speak of Disarming Hizbollah , IF we saw a strong goverment we will not have any reason to bear weapons !

IMO , This is very true.

Salam

We are here to talk, but always some ministers want things their way. We are in the government. Is this the government that supposed to protect you? It is wishfull. But we have talked about it during the discussions we had with the rest of the ministers.

Promise the southern Lebanese that you can protect them.

Finally,

Lets take the dialogue back to where it belongs. today the Lebanese force is in the resistance, and together we can build a stronger Lebanon, with its army.

Dont get lost into wasting time and nonsense, this will weeken the resistance. Lets take this discussion into closed doors and the ministers should understand this.

I wish all the returnees, you are the owners of the land, you are the pride, build and and history will show.

God bless...

Nasrallah: Soon will speak in public squares

Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in an al-Manar broadcast "Soon I will address people in public squares and tell them the details of what happened."

The statement was a response to Ehud Olmert's speech to the Knesset plenum Sunday, in which the PM declared that Israel would continue to track down Hizbullah operatives. (Ali Waked)

(08.14.06, 20:34)

ynetnews.com

21:01 Celebratory gun fire rings out in Lebanon as Nasrallah declares victory (AP)

stunster August 14, 2006 - 1:22pm

We will provide housing for over 15,000 households.
Second, we will rebuild very soon with our assistance.
I ask all the engineers, we are here, we ask everyone not to price gouge and respect our families. I ask all Citizens to assist one another with love and respect.
I ask all students, engineers, teachers to go to the streets and rebuild, even if it is just a few hours a day, we can achieve it.

Can we get this guy to come to New Orleans?

"Lord! What fools these Mortals be!"

Doug Richardson August 14, 2006 - 7:13pm

1701 does not forbid arms in Lebanon. Lebanon can have arms all over the country. It just says that whatever arms there are should be with the consent of the government and be under the control of the official Lebanese armed forces. Same goes for the supply of arms and training from abroad, it must be done only with the consent of the government.

1701 in effect calls for the Lebanese government to exercise its sovereignty over the whole territory of Lebanon.

OK, fine. Just declare Hizballah a division of the official armed forces of Lebanon! Call it the 'Hizballah Division' of the Lebanese Army. Order it deployed in the south. Request arms supplies from the sovereign government of Iran. Re-equip it.

Exercize sovereignty over all Lebanon by kicking out the Zionist invader and rebuilding fortified defensive line across the whole southern border, and when asked, just say you're implementing 1701.

Then watch the Zionist and neocon heads exploding.

stunster August 14, 2006 - 1:55pm

Yes, there'd be an instant market on both sides of the Atlantic for retro-fit kits - windshield wipers for the insides of limousine windows.

Escher Sketch August 14, 2006 - 2:11pm

IDF: Hizbullah may infiltrate Lebanese army

Northern Command chief warns Knesset members terrorists may join Lebanese military; Major General Udi Adam says 'Hizbullah's spirit cannot be broken'
Ilan Marciano

IDF Northern Command Chief, Maj. Gen. Udi Adam, expressed his concern Tuesday over the prospect of Hizbullah fighters joining the Lebanese army. Adam said such infiltration could take place as southern Lebanon is handed over to Lebanese control.

Meanwhile, six Hizbullah members were killed Tuesday during clashes with IDF forces, despite the ceasefire that has largely been respected by both sides. The army said the clashes ensued after Hizbullah members constituted a danger to IDF troops.

In a briefing to members of the Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee touring the north, Major General Adam explained the phases in the upcoming IDF withdrawal from Lebanon. According to Adam, troops will start leaving Lebanon in the coming days, with areas being vacated by the army handed over to UN forces, which will in turn hand them over to the Lebanese army.

Adam made it clear that the IDF will not be leaving any territories before international forces assume responsibility over them. However, as noted above, he expressed worries that Hizbullah terrorists would be able to return to southern Lebanon as soldiers in the Lebanese army.

The Northern Command chief also noted that Hizbullah fighters could be hiding among the southern Lebanon residents making their way back to their homes.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3291682,00.html

stunster August 15, 2006 - 12:45pm

of his own country's willingness to integrate terrorist groups into its armed forces.

Lehi (the Stern Gang) were integrated into the IDF back in 1948.
Their doctrine of 'Obliterate until Destruction' seems to have found favour with the current hierarchy of the IDF.

stonehouse August 16, 2006 - 3:37am

I thought something like this too. Time would be right to a political fusion in Lebanon.

The problem with this approach is that the whole Lebanon would be involved in the next episode. The idea of weak Lebanese army has been to isolate Hizbollah-Israel conflict to south and to give Hizbollah a state in state. The latter has prevented internal Shia/Sunni conflict in Lebanon.

And it is a question, what Syria and Iran would like this.

-- Happy fishing in ocean of noise!

Gandalf August 14, 2006 - 3:16pm

before they were elected. It will be Hassan's choice as to whether he will make the transition to being part of the legitimate government of Lebanon. He undoubtedly would be elected if that was his decision. Hassan is quite comfortable with all the religions in Lebanon and knows he has to have appeal to the Sunni's who are the dominant population in the Middle East. Hassan scares the pants off Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.

canuck August 14, 2006 - 3:41pm

pull out of South Lebanon before the displaced refugees who are currently pouring out of the North in their thousands get back to what used to be their homes.

If the residents of places like Bint Jbail find Israeli troops in what's left of their town I dread to think what will happen.

I also wonder how many Hizbollah fighters, RPGs, AK47s and boxes of ammunition are hidden amongst the convoys of these fervently pro Hizbollah refugees.

stonehouse August 15, 2006 - 4:25am

as Juan Cole points out the:

Kosovo Liberation Army

The KLA were at one time classified as a terrorist organization.

canuck August 15, 2006 - 3:13pm

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