Since the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) defeated the US supported warlords in Mogadishu the situation has started to spiral badly out of control.

The interim government, which is UN created and has almost no popular support and no real military of its own quickly realized it was at the mercy of the ICU, which didn't overrun it mainly because the UN and the West didn't want it to. Negotiations began but then the Ethiopians crossed the border and took up positions in and around the interim government's capital of Baidoa.

Not only did Ethiopia and Somalia fight two wars in the 60's and 70's, but guerillas operating in Ethiopia have traditionally used Somalia as a safe haven. Indeed the current Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi was based in Mogadishu when he was an Ethiopian resistance leader.

But the incursions and interference have gone both ways, and for years, especially as Somalia descended into anarchy, the Ethiopians have repeatedly crossed the border in armed force to protect their interests and attack their enemies. As you can imagine this has caused no end of bad blood.

So when the Ethiopian troops came in 19 ministers from the interim government resigned, and one was assassinated, though no one is quite sure who killed him yet.

Amidst all this, Eritrea, which was once part of Ethiopia and fought a succesful civil war to create it's own country (a victory Ethiopia has never really reconciled itself to) appears to have shipped a plane load of weapons to the ICU.

Ethiopia doesn't want a hostile government in charge of Somalia (or perhaps any effective government at all). Eritrea wants a neighbour friendly to it on its border, and operates also on the "any enemy of Ethiopia, is a friend of ours principle" and the ICU, while a good effective guerilla force with some light infantry, is certainly not capable of going toe-to-toe with the Ethiopian army with its current equiptment and forces.

So very likely what we have here is a war between the ICU and Ethiopia, with Eritrea providing the ICU with support. Probably the US, fearing the ICU's ties with al-Q'aeda, will back Ethiopia, but at the same time Ethiopia is clearly operating in a hostile country where it has no legitimacy, and what little figleaf the interim government provided, is fast disappearing, leaving Ethiopia's agression naked.

While I give a slight edge to the ICU in the long run, it's only slight. The Ehtiopian army is a ruthless bunch, and they will happilly destroy many villages to save them, if they feel that's what it takes. And if they win, they will largely withdraw, and Somalia will go back to anarchy.