Update: just read this very strongly pro-Palestinian blog by an ex-Pat Lebanese. His observations about Lebanon are somewhat chilling, and unlike most other Lebanese bloggers, he's a Muslim. He observes in one post that he has never believed the Lebanese civil war really ended, and that it could easily start up again. In another he writes about US and French influence in Lebanon.

I asked one cabinet minister about his impressions of cabinet meetings: he said that he is astonished at the level of US and French intervention in minute political affairs in Lebanon. He told me that in some cabinet meetings, some ministers simply read statements prepared to them by the US ambassador. He said the cabinet meetings are not as they seem to appear form media coverage.

Taylor Marsh has up links to some Lebanese blogs as well as a running compentary on the Middle Eastern open sore. They seem to all be blogs written by Lebanese Christians and at this point they're angrier at Hezbollah and they are at Israel. I would be careful, however, about reading too much into this. Some people seem to be taking this to mean "the Lebanese people are turning against Hezbollah". Unless the Shia base of Hezbollah turns against Hezbollah, even if everyone else does, that's only a slim majority.

Remember, the reason "Lebanon" hasn't disarmed Hezbollah, is that the Lebanese army would lose a confrontation against Hezbollah. If the other Lebanese factions cooperate with Israel in breaking Hezbollah, they'll start another 20 year internicine civil war in Lebanon. It's not possible to stop weapons from getting into Southern Lebanon from Syria (and thus Iran), the Shia are outbreeding the Lebanese Christians and Sunni, and they are poor and tough. They don't have nearly as much to lose as the northern Lebanese and they have no real liking for the rich Christians who abandoned them to Israel last time around. They know they won against Israel, they know it took a long time, and while weary, they probably think they can do it again.

And they're probably right.

The other possibility is a short incursion, perhaps a few weeks or months, by Israel, to do as much damage as possible to Hezbollah, then withdraw and encourage the rest of Lebanon (ie. the Christians and Sunni) to disarm a much weakened Hezbollah. That might work, but it's the sort of strategy which is likely to make Lebanon's Shia feel that their Christian and Sunni neighbours are working with Israel to betray and destroy them. And those sort of hard feelings could turn into something really nasty.

If Lebanon wants to be a country it should act like one, not like a bunch of factions. If not, then it should either try and arrange a partition, or it should be ready for the consequences - which may turn out to be another generation of religious/ethnic civil war, with each of the factions being backed by different outside powers.

Letting outside powers play your factions off against each other is stupid - this is true of all factions, including Hezbollah. It is understandable, given Lebanon's history, but if it cannot be overcome then it indicates Lebanon is not a country, it is a pastiche of countries, and should seek a divorce as quickly as possible.

The fiction in the world that borders are forever fixed is one of the most damaging fictions around. Most of Africa, for example, exists of countries which are completely fake - which have no real geogrpahic or ethnic boundaries.

They, like Lebanon, were the creation of colonial diplomatic drawing room negotiations. And they, possibly like Lebanon, should probably cease to exist.

(As an example, why has no one recognized Somaliland - the break off from Somalia which has been running itself for some time now.)