...would be to hang around long enough for Hizbollah to be able to get its act together. I suspect that they're concerned about the massive amounts of materiel that's been moving into Southern Lebanon - if they're going in, I suspect they'll hit as much as they can, destroy as much infrastructure as they can and then pull back into Israel proper (hence the smashing of the bridges at chokepoints - pretty damned hard to hump a BM21 up and down those wadi slopes). They'll consider themselves to have bought some breathing room until someone else can effect regime change in Tehran. I'm not convinced that they'll move ground forces into the Bekaa - I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of air power backed up by Sayaret taking out point targets and gathering materials for int exploitation via helo insertions, but I don't know that they'll move major ground forces into the valley itself (that said, I would love to know if they've struck the road net to isolate the valley or not). I have a feeling that IDF thinking is that they've got an excuse to take out a looming threat from Hizbollah, but that there are dangers to going too far.

Were I in their shoes, I wouldn't launch a pre-emptive strike on the Syrian airforce. This isn't 1954 - current Israeli systems and pilots are good enough that anything the Syrians can put up will eat ordnance before it breaks ground effect. If I was going to get pre-emptive on them, I'd strike their airbases, same way that they hit Beirut (I'd also love to know what other strips they hit in Lebanon) - crater the airstrip and taxiways so no one can take off; strike their air defence net and bottle up their airpower rather than destroy it and risk broader Syrian involvement.

'course this speculation could be completely wrong, given that I'm hampered by an excess of rationality - guess we'll find out.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

I tend to agree. The goals of this incursion seem to be to make Hizballa pay significantly in infrastructure, possibly Lebanese political clout, and if they are lucky in their command structure. It would be nice if they rescued the soldiers, but they will probably be executed before that is possible.

I think Israel learned its lessons from 1982 and are not in for a repeat performance. I do not forsee a long occupation of any sort. On that point the reserve calls are small and very targeted for specific posts, e.g., they called the reserve pilots but not infantry.

Other defence sources say Hezbollah also has longer range missiles. Asked about the claims, a source close to Hezbollah said: "Wait a few days and you'll find out."

Saturday 15 July 2006, 20:09 Makka Time, 17:09 GMT

Israel claims that the guided missile that hit one of their naval warships, killing at least one sailor, was Iranian-made.

The missile strike, late on Friday, caused substantial damage to the vessel and left four sailors missing.

Israel recovered the body of one of the four on Saturday. The ship was towed back to port in Haifa, still smouldering from the attack.

Brigadier-General Ido Nehushtan, an Israeli commander, said the body was found at sea and that the military were searching for the other three.

Nehushtan said Hezbollah had launched an Iranian-made missile at the vessel.

"This shows very profound thumbprints of Iranian involvement in Hezbollah," he said.

An Israeli military source separately said that a C802 radar-guided missile with a range of 100 kilometres had been fired at the ship as it sat off the coast, enforcing a blockade on Lebanon's ports after two Israeli soldiers were abducted on Wednesday.

"This is sophisticated weaponry," the Israeli military source said. "This is advanced weaponry that is being supplied by one terrorist state [Iran] to another."

It was thought that a second land-to-sea missile had hit and sank an Egyptian merchant ship but it has since emerged that it was a Cambodian merchant vessel that was hit.

The 12 Egyptian sailors on board survived the attack and were collected from the water by other passing ships.

Iran has denied involvement and their embassy in Beirut has released a statement saying: "These accusations by Israeli officials are baseless and constitute an attempt to escape reality and cover up the impotence of this regime in the face of resistance and the Lebanese people."

Dramatic effect

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, dramatically announced the naval attack during a live telephone call to the group's television station. The rockets were fired as he spoke.

"The surprises that I had promised you start now. Now, at sea, an Israeli warship ... off Beirut is burning and will sink," he said.

Lebanese sources say Hezbollah has more sophisticated weapons systems, most notably short-range anti-aircraft batteries that have not been used so far.

Israel believes that Hezbollah, a group backed by Iran and Syria, has between 10,000 and 12,000 rockets in its arsenal with a variety of ranges, from around 30 to 70 kilometres.

Other defence sources say Hezbollah also has longer range missiles. Asked about the claims, a source close to Hezbollah said: "Wait a few days and you'll find out."

MORE

Jul. 16, 2006 2:07
Israel wary of bringing down Lebanese government
By ORLY HALPERN

Jerusalem Post - Israel has yet to hit Lebanon as hard as it could because it fears that doing so would cause the fledgling government to fall, a high-ranking military official said Saturday, adding that if necessary, it would take such action.

"We didn't take the gloves off completely," the official told reporters in a briefing at the Defense Ministry's Tel Aviv headquarters. "Imagine if we hit Lebanon's four power stations. It would throw Lebanon back years. Gaza [where Israel hit the power station two weeks ago] can't go any further backwards. But Lebanon will lose billions of dollars and it will take years to reconstruct [the power stations]."

So far, Israel has held back because of the fragile situation of the Lebanese government, which could collapse if the whole country is brought to a standstill after losing its electricity. Lebanon only recently threw off the yoke of a Syrian occupation, voted in an independent - but highly factional - government, and began improving its economy, which was in ruins after a long civil war.

The officer said Israel needs to be "very careful that we only put enough pressure on the Lebanese government to change the situation but not enough to make it fall."

Israel holds the Lebanese government responsible for Hizbullah's actions and has been attacking civilian infrastructure, both to prevent its use by Hizbullah and to "send a message to the Lebanese that they will pay a high price" for Hizbullah's attacks on Israel.

The high-ranking military official rejected US President George W. Bush's statement that Syria could and should influence Hizbullah to stop its rocket attacks and release the two soldiers who were kidnapped last week.

"The Syrians are not the key to the solution," he said. "In 1996 they were, now they are not."

He called Syria a "negative factor" adding that "Iran is much worse."

Despite the missile strikes on the home and offices of Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the official said that assassinating Nasrallah was not the goal.

"We wanted to send him a message that he is not immune and we can get him anywhere," he said. He added that the army's goal was not to dismantle Hizbullah.

"It's not realistic to dismantle Hizbullah," he said, "or to chase them out of Lebanon until there are no Hizbullah gunmen there." The goal was rather to weaken Hizbullah and to distance it from the Israeli border where it had built up an infrastructure, he said.

The official said Israel was always willing to use indirect channels for solving the problem, like using foreign mediators "as we have done in the past."

In the end, the military cannot solve the security problem Israel faces, he said."There is no military solution. It's always diplomatic."

Hizbollah rocket barrage kills at least 8 in Haifa
16 Jul 2006 08:12:39 GMT
Source: Reuters

(Adds quotes, details throughout)

By Ilan Rosenberg

HAIFA, Israel, July 16 (Reuters) - A barrage of Hizbollah rocket fire pounded the Israeli city of Haifa on Sunday, killing at least eight people and wounding 20 in the deadliest missile attack by the Lebanese guerrilla group in more than a decade.

Around 20 rockets landed in and around the port city, Israel's third largest, with one striking a train depot and causing most of the casualties, police and medics said. Television pictures showed blood on smashed rail compartments.

Hizbollah claimed responsibility for the salvo, saying it had fired "dozens" of longer-range "Raad 2 and Raad 3" rockets in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon's infrastructure and the killing of civilians.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the attacks would have "far-reaching consequences", saying Israel was not about to bend to Hizbollah pressure. In the past, Israel has said that attacking Haifa would be crossing a "red line".

Sunday's high death toll was expected to lead to an intensification of Israel's air and sea campaign against Lebanon, where it has bombed targets across the south and hit Hizbollah buildings in Beirut over the past four days.

Around 100 Lebanese, all but a handful of them civilians, have been killed in the bombardments, which Israel has said could continue for weeks or months, until Hizbollah's ability to fire rockets into Israel is destroyed.

The Shi'ite Muslim group, which has virtually carved out an independent state in southern Lebanon and is a member of Lebanon's coalition government, has fired more than 400 rockets into Israel in the past five days, killing a total of 12 people and wounding hundreds. Thousands have fled northern Israel.

Following Sunday's strike, residents of Haifa, a city of 250,000 people that lies about 35 km (20 miles) south of the Lebanese border, rushed to bomb shelters as warning sirens blared across the city.

Haifa is one of a range of northern Israeli cities that have been targeted by Hizbollah since the crisis began last Wednesday, when Hizbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross border raid and killed eight others in ensuing clashes.

Hizbollah, led by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and backed by Syria and Iran, is believed to have about 10,000 to 12,000 rockets in its arsenal, with a range of between 30 km and 70 km.
more

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L16428724.htm

Lebanon's Hizbollah threatens destruction of Israeli city Haifa
13:07 | 16/ 07/ 2006

TEL AVIV, July 16 (RIA Novosti) - Lebanese radical Islamist group Hizbollah warned Israel Sunday that the country's third largest city Haifa, along with its suburbs, would "burn in flames" if Israel committed any "new foolish acts".

Israel launched a military operation in Lebanon after the Hizbollah movement took two Israeli soldiers hostage on Wednesday. Over 100 Lebanese civilians were killed and more than 200 wounded. Israeli aircraft also bombed the Gaza Strip.

Israeli emergency services said earlier Sunday that at least eight people had been killed and 17 wounded in a shooting in Haifa, as Hizbollah continued its fire against the country.

Lebanese sources said that in the attack on Haifa, missiles hit a railway station, the city port, and an oil refinery, killing nine and wounding at least 20 people.

The militant group threatened to focus its next missile attacks on Haifa's oil refining complex.

Haifa, home to about 270,000 people, is a major Israeli sea port. Russia has a consulate general in the

http://en.rian.ru/world/20060716/51417840.html

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait pledge $70 mln to help Lebanon
16 Jul 2006 13:48:00 GMT
Source: Reuters

DUBAI, July 16 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and Kuwait pledged $70 million on Sunday to help Lebanon after its prime minister said Israeli attacks turned the country into a disaster area.

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said late on Saturday Beirut needed a comprehensive plan to rush aid into the country.

The official Saudi Press Agency said King Abdullah ordered the immediate transfer of $50 million "for the (Lebanese) prime minister to spend on emergency aid and basic services to alleviate the suffering of the Lebanese people".

It said the move was in response to Siniora's call.

The cabinet of fellow Gulf Arab oil exporter Kuwait allocated $20 million "to provide urgent aid to brothers in Lebanon to help them in the face of this barbaric aggression and ease their suffering".

More than 110 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since Hizbollah guerrillas captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight on Wednesday. The attacks destroyed key infrastructure, including bridges, power stations and ports.

In Israel at least 12 people have been killed in attacks by Hizbollah.

The United Nations maintains a peacekeeping force in south Lebanon where Hizbollah guerrillas are active.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L1634714.htm

Strikes to intensify in four-stage strategy
ANALYSIS

Abraham Rabinovich
July 17, 2006
THE fierce Israeli attack in Lebanon is following a carefully orchestrated plan, not yet half completed, that calls for four stages of mounting intensity, according to Israeli sources.

In the first stage, which began shortly after the Hezbollah incursion across the border last Wednesday, Israeli warplanes attacked missile caches in south Lebanon and elsewhere, particularly those housing long-range missiles.

Fifty caches, some hidden underground and in private homes, were reportedly destroyed. It is unclear what percentage of the 13,000 missiles known to be in Hezbollah hands that accounts for. Meanwhile, artillery pounded Hezbollah positions and command posts from the Israeli side of the border.

In this stage, the Israel Defence Forces also bombed Beirut airport and imposed a sea blockade to impress upon the Lebanese Government the consequences of having let Hezbollah freely attack Israel from southern Lebanon.

In the second stage, which began early on Friday, warplanes attacked the heart of Hezbollah power, shattering high-rise buildings in south Beirut housing the militia's command structure as well as the home of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was reportedly trapped for a while in the underground command centre when the building above it collapsed.

The third and fourth stages are still secret. However, the sources said the operation calls for each of the four stages to be more powerful than the previous one.

Another reported principle is that the targets are hit in a specified order that will not be deviated from in order to retaliate against Hezbollah attacks.

A constantly expanding "target bank" drawn up by the IDF, consisting of hundreds of sites, is approved at periodic meetings of a cabinet subcommittee chaired by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

One of the final stages, presumably, is the entry of ground forces into Lebanon. If Israel's main objectives -- a halt in the firing of missiles and a Lebanese agreement to displace Hezbollah from the border with Israel -- have not been achieved by the end of this week, ground troops will cross the border, the sources said.

Israel is unenthusiastic about getting bogged down in a guerilla war in southern Lebanon, as it was for 18 years before 2000.

But the head of operations on the IDF general staff, Brigadier General Gadi Eisencott, said at the weekend that any ground incursion would be limited in time and in the area affected. Israeli officials say the international community will not force Israel to stop before its goals are achieved.

link

Israel blames Hizbollah after Canadian deaths
17 Jul 2006 00:22:34 GMT
Source: Reuters

JERUSALEM, July 17 (Reuters) - The Israeli army said after seven Canadians were killed in southern Lebanon that it had warned residents of the village to clear out of the area and that Hizbollah was responsible for any civilian deaths.

"The IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) requested and warned residents of the area not to stay within range of the launch sites" used by Hizbollah to fire rockets into Israel, the army said in a statement.

"The responsibility for any civilian casualties rests entirely with the Hizbollah terrorist organization," the army said.

Seven Canadians were killed and three more were wounded on Sunday when shells hit their house in southern Lebanon. Canadian media reported that all the dead Canadians were from the same Montreal family in Lebanon for the summer holidays.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L16111660.htm

'We feel the world has left us to be slaughtered'
MICHAEAL THEODOULOU AND CHRISTIAN HENDERSON IN BEIRUT

LEBANON last night warned it faced "real annihilation" by Israel who had dramatically escalated the violence of its campaign after Hezbollah rockets hit the city of Haifa.

"We are facing a real annihilation carried out by Israel," Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said after an emergency cabinet meeting.

"Israel is using internationally prohibited weapons against civilians," he said.

He did not elaborate on the weapons allegedly used. But Lebanese media reports said Israel had used phosphorus incendiary bombs and vacuum bombs, which suck up the air and collapse buildings. The reports were not confirmed.

Large swaths of Beirut were covered in fine white dust from the barrage. Around the Hezbollah compound in the southern district - known as Dahiyah - entire blocks were littered with heaps of rubble and twisted metal, as fires raged.

"We feel the entire world has left us alone to be slaughtered," said Ali al-Amin, a 40-year-old civil engineer who has stayed in his nearby home with his sister and mother because they have nowhere else to go. Many families have already fled.

much more

LEBANESE TELEVISION SAYS ISRAELI F-16 PLANE SHOT DOWN, SHOWS FAL
17 Jul 2006 11:20:47 GMT
Source: Reuters
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LEBANESE TELEVISION SAYS ISRAELI F-16 PLANE SHOT DOWN, SHOWS FALLING DEBRIS

Also unconfirmed reports that israel troops have entered lebanon

http://www.wral.com/apworldnews/9525999/detail.html

Israel bombards Beirut's port and airport

At least 23 people have been killed by Israeli air strikes in Lebanon today as the violence there shows no signs of easing. Israel has dismissed talk of sending an international force to southern Lebanon to help end Hezbollah rocket attacks as premature and continued to bombard the country's infrastructure. Beirut's port and international airport came under attack. Petrol stations and factories elsewhere were also hit. Israel's military campaign, launched after Hezbollah captured two of its soldiers, has resulted in the loss of lives of some 176 Lebanese - all but 13 of them civilians.

http://euronews.net/create_html.php?page=detail_info&article=369852&lng=1

Haifa under rocket attack again; 3-story building hit

(VIDEO) At least seven blasts rock northern city; sirens heard once and again. Building directly hit by rocket, partially collapses; several injured, one sustains serious wounds. Carmiel, Safed, Akko and Tiberias area also hit by rockets
Ahiya Raved

VIDEO - On the day after the deadly attack on the Haifa Bay, rockets hit the city again Monday afternoon. Seven explosions were heard in the northern city following air raid sirens at 2 p.m. A number of rockets landed in central Haifa.

After another hour of sirens, a second barrage hit at 3 p.m. One rocket struck a three-story building in the city causing two floors to collapse.

more

July 17, 2006, 7:17AM
Israel denies aircraft lost near Beirut

© 2006 The Associated Press

BEIRUT, Lebanon — A Lebanese TV station showed video Monday of an object falling from the sky, but Israel said that reports that it was an Israeli aircraft were false. The video, aired by Lebanese Broadcasting Corp., showed a burning object spiraling down to the ground in the Jamhour district near the Hezbollah stronghold of southern Beirut, which have been under Israeli air attack for several days.

It described the object as an F-16 fighter jet, while Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV said the aircraft was a helicopter gunship.

But the Israeli army says reports of Israeli aircraft being shot down over Beirut are false, and Israel's Channel 10 TV reported that the object apparently was a container of leaflets that fell from an Israeli military plane.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4051424.html

Yaakov Katz | July 17

Jerusalem Post - A government spokesman said Monday afternoon that IDF ground forces had briefly entered southern Lebanon to target Hizbullah bases along the border in order to push the terrorist group out of rocket-firing range.

Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz declared that the IDF currently had much better alternatives than to launch a major ground incursion into Lebanon.

In addition, the IDF has denied Lebanese news reports that an Israeli F-16 jet was downed near Beirut. Virtually all Lebanese news agencies were showing unclear video footage of what was claimed to be the downed jet.

[more at link - also note, article is with files from AP]

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

David Horovitz | July 13

The Jerusalem Post - Everything is a matter of balance, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Doron Almog said on Monday.

We were sitting in his back garden, and the major-general, who held overall responsibility for Gaza as OC Southern Command from 2000 to 2003, was pronouncing himself generally satisfied with the range of actions Israel was taking in its efforts to bring home Cpl. Gilad Shalit and to put a stop to the Kassam fire on Sderot and Ashkelon.

"It may be that we should have moved to more aggressive action to thwart the Kassams before the Kerem Shalom attack [in which Shalit was kidnapped and two soldiers were killed]," Almog said. "But the government decided on a more moderate course of action. And there's no point in talking about 'if only.'

"Now, the fact that a soldier is being held complicates the dilemma. If the government doesn't act firmly, there is the danger that stems from it being perceived as weak. But if it uses a lot of force, there is the danger that those who are holding Shalit will kill him."

Overall, though, Almog said he felt the crisis was being handled properly, with the prime minister finding the right balance between the numerous options - military, economic, diplomatic, etc. - at his disposal.

That was on Monday.

On Wednesday afternoon, as Israeli ground forces punched into Lebanon in search of the two kidnapped soldiers, and before word of the killings of eight others had been cleared for publication by the military censor, I spoke to Almog a second time, by telephone. "Yes, David," he said, unsurprised, when he heard my voice. "You want to complete the interview?"

"Or start it over," I suggested.

[more at link, above]

[Comment: An interesting piece detailing the thinking of a former commander of Southern Command - unfortunately only some of the questions focus on the North, most focus on Gaza (and boy do they seem locked in down there). ~ JPD]

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

Ronny Sofer | July 17

Yediot Aharonot - Minister of Science, Technology, and Culture Minister Ophir Pines-Paz said following Monday’s rocket barrages on Haifa and Galilee communities “a ground operation in Lebanon should not even be a possibility, even if Hizbullah steps up its attacks against Israel’s home front up.”

“I do not want to even think of the possibility that Hizbullah will attack Gush Dan (central Israel), but either way, no one is suggesting a ground operation at present time,” Paz-Pines said.

“The situation on the ground won’t be altered by force alone; diplomatic efforts must accompany the military operations. The Israeli government must act so the international community will pressure Lebanon into deploying its forces on the border.”

[Comment: The guy's not the IDF Chief of Staff or the Minister of Defence, so take it for what it's worth. I don't have a good enough handle on the players to know whether this is a trial balloon, personal opinion, posturing, or what have you. ~ JPD]

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

Hanan Greenberg | July 18

Yediot Aharonot - Defense Minister Amir Peretz approved Monday night the draft of three reserves brigades – infantry and engineers. The forces will be drafted starting Tuesday morning and will replace regular forces in Judea and Samaria. The regular forces will help in the northern array.

As of today, infantry and engineer corps are operating to destroy Hizbullah outposts in the line of fire. Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, revealed, in a Monday press conference at the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, that in recent days, forces were operating in a ground offensive against Hizbullah outposts in Rajar village.

[more at link, above]

[Comment: Contra the above, there's this. ~ JPD]

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.