There’s only two days to go until the next round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 kick off in Baghdad. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano has been in Tehran ahead of that summit but despite what were described by the IAEA head as “expanded and intensive negotiations in a good atmosphere” there’s still no concrete sign of any grand bargain which might permamnently put off the West’s threat of war.
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And no grand bargain coming this week. But I think there won’t be war either. This kind of negotiation is going to take time, and we can expect only small steps at each meeting.
that there is a deal. But I doubt it is a grand bargain, probably more like access to Parchin and maybe another site or two.
Still enough to prevent war.
A bar so low both sides can easily trip over it.
The first steps are small. But if both sides do what they say they’ll do, that’s what is meant by the phrase “confidence-building.” Then the next steps can be bigger.
BTW, I haven’t seen any (any!) description of what the agreement between Iran and the IAEA contains. So we don’t know if it’s small or not, but the sequence of statements from Amano seems to imply it’s small.
The lack of information, however, has not stopped pro-Israel commentators from insisting it’s not enough.
Rozen/Slavin: International negotiators to offer detailed confidence-building proposal to Iran
Iran has used “agreements” and negotiations to buy time. What they are being offered is help with the Tehran research reactor (TRR), which is one of the things they say they need. So the offer is not without something for both sides.
And Iran isn’t being asked to give up or even suspend, two concepts often conflated in the press, all enrichment, just the 20% enrichment. So that’s a small step on their side.
And the two are linked: If Iran needs to do the 20% enrichment for the TRR, then the P5+1 are making it possible, by supplying fuel and technical assistance, to eliminate that requirement.
It’s a reasonably balanced proposal.
Of course Iran would like sanctions lifted. And Israel would like all enrichment stopped. Still some distance to go for either of those.
What I find most interesting about the Rozen/Slavin article is this:
The IAEA and P5+1 tracks with Iran “are two separate processes,†a senior US administration official said Tuesday.
As I think about it, they pretty much have been, with the IAEA pressing for access to Parchin and more information about past weapons programs, and the P5+1 pressing on enrichment. But this statement seems to mean that Iran gets no credit with the P5+1 for whatever it may agree with the IAEA. Again, Iran has pulled that rug out from under a few too many times.
This isn’t too different from what I said I expect, although I thought there was a possibility that sanctions could come into play.
“If we talk substantively on elements of a deal and agree to meet again in three weeks, Baghdad will have been a success.â€