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Home Foreclosures Still IncreasingFor economic commentary and analysis, go to the Bonddad Blog
Let's put that picture in perspective. In 2001 we were in a recession. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research the US economy was in a recession from March to November 2001. Rising foreclosures are a natural consequence of a recession. However, now we are in an expansion, albeit it a slower one. To hit record foreclosures in an expansion indicates there is a big problem somewhere. Also consider these jumps in large cities foreclosure rates:
Let's add some more statistics that indicate these problems are occurring an an economically significant time. According to the BLS unemployment is at 4.4%. That should mean people have plenty of money. And in fact according to the BEA national disposable income actually rose last year, indicating people do have a bit more money. So what's the problem? Here it is in a nutshell: Over the last 5 years, the percentage of higher risk loans underwriting on a yearly basis has been increasing. Simply put, it looks as though some of those loans were poorly underwritten -- at best. There is no way to simply erase all of these loans. We have to let the market run it's course. That means this problem is going to be with us for some time. Bonddad April 11, 2007 - 6:59am
( categories: Economics: USA )
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