Remember, remember the fifth of November: Bush meeting with Erdogan


Remember, remember the fifth of November
The warmongering, treason, and plot,
I know of no reason why the Bush treason
Should ever be forgot.

No, this fifth of November, President Bush won't sneak into the cellars of Congress to blow the House and Senate up (why should he, with them doing his bidding like a collective Sancho Panza for a modern Don Quixote chasing windmills with cruise missiles?). There are other reasons for this fifth of November not being forgotten. When President Bush meets Recep Tayyip Erdogan on this day, not only the future of Turkey's policy towards Northern Iraq and the PKK but also the course for war with Iran will be decided on. November 5, 2007, may not culminate in a firework but carry destruction through the diplomatic backdoor and entail future conflagration of historic dimensions. Guy Fawkes heroically failed to set the British Parliament afire, but if George Bush succeeds in talking the Turkish Prime Minister into accepting a deal, he may set the whole Middle East afire.

It may disgruntle Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid (although I doubt them believing it themselves) but not the Democratic-led Congress, nor soft-power-glorifying Europe see-sawing between Angela Merkel's pragmatism, Gordon Brown's lack of leadership, and Nicolas Sarkozy seeking a place under America's sun, and certainly not the current Democratic presidential hopeful are the biggest obstacles for George Bush to unleash shock and awe against Tehran. With their overt challenge against Turkey's moderate-Islamist government the roughly 5,000 rabble-rousers of the PKK, who can claim as much legitimacy to represent the Kurdish people's majority will as Tom Tancredo America's, are the prime spoilers for George Bush to crown himself with the laurel of a third war lost.

To attack Iran George Bush relies on the vital Incirlik Air Base, home to the 39 ABW, as a strategic hub, unimpaired flow of supplies across the Iraqi-Turkish border, the cooperation of the Kurdish Regional Government in Arbil as well as the Partiya Jiyana Azad a Kurdistanê (PJAK), PKK's less radical equivalent in Iran, to launch an all-out guerilla war tying as many Pasdaran, Islamic Revolutionary Guards, in the inhospitable Zagros Mountains as they can. The latter alliance was given a rehearsal with this August's PJAK offensive in Iran and its leader Rahman Haj-Ahmadi at the same time visiting Washington - on no official mission, of course. With the Shiite south of Iraq rising up in case of an attack on Iran being a given, the northern front gains even more prominence in the Pentagon's contingency plans. The least George Bush and the Podhoretz-faction of chickenhawks need now is their carefully crafted alliance among the various Kurdish groups to fall apart and their prime theater of war turning into a Lebanon-like quicksand-mass-grave for the Turkish army.

Make no mistake, the PKK has its back to the wall. They want this war, they need this war. Their ultra-Marxist ideology and Shining Path-like leadership cult makes them less and less attractive to ordinary Kurds in Turkey, who for the first time in almost a century are allowed to participate in the current economic boom and were granted first tangible yet always improvable minority rights. They appreciated these reforms by supporting Erdogan at the polls above average, thus turning the Kurdish south into an AKP-heartland. One can hardly imagine a more forceful slap in the face for the PKK. In their despair they hope to pull off a similar stunt as Hezbollah in 2006: draw the Turkish army into the Kandil Mountains, inflict an at least propagandistically exploitable defeat on them, trepan them into brutal excesses that will rally Kurdish-national and international support for them, and, ideally, internationalize the conflict by leaving the Kurdish Regional Government with no choice but to ally with them. Erdogan's reforms and election victory have made such a high risk gamble mandatory, Washington unable to antagonize them and courting PJAK like a valentine has let it appear accomplishable.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan isn't in an admirable position either. With its martial rhetoric and the parliament giving carte blanche for an invasion of Northern Iraq the Turkish government has gone out on a limb. Like Hillary Clinton Erdogan has tried to outrun the right on the right and now is expected by the public, whose nationalist pride has been humiliated by the PKK responding to their threats with increased attacks, to walk the talk. After 24 futile raids into Iraq over the last decades Erdogan has no reason to believe the 25th to result in anything but a stalemate at best, him sharing Ehud Olmert's fate or something even less pleasant at worst. Yet if he doesn't play the strong-man now, the ultra-hawkish military establishment around Turkey's Curtis LeMay, Yasar Büyükanit, will have finally found a reason to topple him the public would support. As reluctantly as Dick Cheney would acquiesce in having dinner with Cindy Sheehan, Erdogan will thus walk down the path leading to war, praying for a limited engagement.

He'll be joined in his prayers by George Bush. Washington augurs recently have interpreted everything from a handful of local chieftains in al-Anbar province entering a temporary alliance with U.S. forces to the flight of birds looking promising this season as signs of President Bush having recovered his mojo. The surge is obviously working and Congress and the Democratic frontrunner have given him carte blanche to attack Iran whenever the next Damascus epiphany strikes him, so why not move on to pastures new and leave the stage with a big bang? Even the most sober-minded analysts admit that over the last weeks the hawks in Washington and Tehran have gained the whip hand over the voices of reason. Newsweek's Michael Hirsh, one of the leading experts on Iran, sums up the last weeks' developments as,

"… the administration has been on a unilateralist tear against Iran once again, issuing hawkish rhetoric that far outpaces anything heard in European capitals. On Thursday the White House announced a broad array of sanctions that affect almost the entire Iranian government … The dynamic duo that brought us the war in Iraq, Bush and Cheney, appear to be on the same page once again. In Tehran, meanwhile, the Iranian government now seems united around one idea: Iran will not give up "one iota" of its nuclear program, in President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's words. The resignation of chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani this week, and his replacement by a close ally of Ahmadinejad's, Saeed Jalili (Larijani and the Iranian president were bitter rivals), is one strong sign that this hardened position will continue. As a Larijani ally in Tehran told me Thursday, the hard-line president likes to dominate "inexperienced and unprofessional people" like Jalili."


On November 5, we'll know more about how the land lies. President Bush will try to get Turkey to differentiate between the PKK and the Kurdish Regional Government and restrict itself to imposing economic sanctions. Cornered Prime Minister Erdogan will happily accept any reasonable offer that would allow him to save face, even if it comes at the price of tacitly accepting a showdown with Iran. Even hawks like Presidents Talabani and Barzani as well as General Büyükanit appear to have accepted Washington assuming control of events, ideally leading to U.S. troops patrolling the Turkish-Iraqi border to prevent the PKK from crossing it at their leisure. Yet this uncommon role for George Bush as a dove of peace doesn't come without the hidden agenda to prevent or at least limit one war for being able to wage another. November 5 could turn out the day when war with Iran was irreversibly put on track. When celebrating President Bush for having defused this powder keg we should keep in mind, though, that he might just have removed the last remaining obstacle to gain free hand to face Tehran in spring.

On a personal note, if I'm allowed to, the triangle, Turkey-Iran-Kurds, in view of the war planning on Iran is at the heart of my new political novel, The Writing on the Wall, available on Amazon and in local bookstores.

---
Hannes Artens is the author of The Writing on the Wall, the first anti Iran war novel


Hannes Artens November 2, 2007 - 9:38pm

I saw an extended report on the PKK, produced by reporters allowed among them. Their forces are comprised of at least as many women as men, and they state in interviews that they always save the last bullet for themselves. I agree that they will be the big winners if Turkey makes a move.

Yet, in priciple, I support their cause - the Kurds deserve their own land in northern Iraq.

As a people, they're a long way from a safe refuge (much less a homeland) there. They've no guarantees as yet, and should Bush win over Turkey to his POV as you fear, the Kurds may stand to lose more than they think they will. Allied in a war against Iran will make them the front line fighters, or at least the major diversion as you say.

Shining Path and marxism aside, I suspect the PKK is primarily motivated by mistrust.

Joes Bar and Grill November 3, 2007 - 4:07am

Is it just me, or is some of the text being cut off by the right-hand margin?

And thanks, Hannes, great posting.

Charles Harris November 3, 2007 - 12:54pm

It's usually just the last few letters of a word or maybe a small word like "is" or "are." Doesn't happen on every line--just those that happen to be the longest.

Bolo November 3, 2007 - 2:33pm

Internet Exploder...never Firefox. (not a product endorsement - just an observation on how hard it is to set up a web page that will render properly in any browser)



Turn back to the Constitution - and
READ it.

Rick November 4, 2007 - 12:12am

I set up a thread in the Bugs forum to discuss this:

http://agonist.org/forum/right_hand_margin_text_cut_off

Please contribute info there so we can work on it. Thanks.

quiet Bill November 4, 2007 - 6:38pm

Remember, remember the 5th of November
Gunpowder, Treason and Plot.

However, my father, and grandfather, used to say the plotters
were the only men to enter parliment with honest intentions.

Is it just me, or is some of the text being cut off by the right-hand margin?

Did you mean "right-hand margin" or "right-wing"?

Synoia November 3, 2007 - 5:57pm

from the November 05, 2007 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1105/p02s02-usfp.html

In Washington Monday, the Turkish prime minister will focus on Kurdish rebels. The US will try to repair relations.

By Howard LaFranchi | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Washington

On the surface, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington Monday is about Kurdish separatists across Turkey's border in northern Iraq, and whether the United States can pull Turkey back from launching an incursion against the rebels.

There will be lots of talk about the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, long involved in a bloody war with the Turkish government. Both the US and Turkey consider the group a terrorist organization.

But on another level, Mr. Erdogan's meeting at the White House with President Bush is about repairing relations with a crucial ally estranged by the war in Iraq. It will also test whether the US can keep a lid on the war-related flash points roiling the Middle East.

"It's high noon for the strategic relationship between the US and Turkey," says John Hulsman, a distinguished scholar in residence at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. "The PKK is the impetus, but the real issue is addressing relations that for the Bush administration have been going awry since the Iraq war."

Another "real issue" is Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, and what the Turkish military especially fears that means for Turkey, others say.

"If this were really only about the PKK, the Iraqi Kurds' offers to provide the Turks [with] information on the PKK would at least be accepted as a starting point," says Elizabeth Prodromou, a political expert on Turkey at Boston University, who is also a consultant to the State Department. "But it's not accepted because the military sees this in the context of Kurdish autonomy."

On Sunday, Kurdish rebels released eight Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq who had been captured two weeks earlier. The move could ease public pressure on Turkey's government to launch a cross-border invasion, but still, Turkey was unlikely to soften demands for tough action against the PKK.

Turkish officials have said that any decision about a cross-border incursion would await Erdogan's Washington visit.

White House officials are hoping that Turkey is in a mood to concentrate on its broad interests in a strong relationship with the US, rather than focusing narrowly or exclusively on the PKK. In addition to addressing efforts to counter the PKK, Erdogan and Mr. Bush will discuss "the promotion of peace and stability in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and the broader Middle East," as well as US support for Turkey's bid to join the European Union, the White House says.

But from the Turkish perspective, the PKK is the issue – and the goal of the trip is convincing the US that an offensive against the militants is justified, according to analysts. "Erdogan is coming with many files in his suitcase, but they are all on the PKK," says Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Erdogan will come with data on PKK attacks on Turkish sites and the military, on the dozens of Turks killed in PKK attacks in just this past month, and on PKK camps and strength in northern Iraq, Mr. Cagaptay says.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met with Turkish officials this past weekend in Turkey. Although the US has called for Turkish restraint in dealing with the PKK, Secretary Rice assured the officials that the US would help in the fight against the rebels.

"We consider this a common threat, not just to the interests of Turkey, but to the interests of the United States as well," she said Friday at a joint news conference with the Turkish foreign minister. "This is going to take persistence, and it's going to take commitment. This is a very difficult problem."

The US rates low marks from Turkish politicians and the Turkish public over what they see as an American failure to control the territory in next-door Iraq, where PKK militants appear to roam free.

They also believe the US has failed to get tough with the Iraqi Kurds, whom they fault for not going after the militants.

"The Turkish view is that Iraq is a crisis of our making that has made their life more difficult, says Mr. Hulsman.

At an international conference on Iraq Saturday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki pledged to work with neighboring countries to address threats such as the PKK.

quiet Bill November 4, 2007 - 6:07pm

By Vincent Boland in Istanbul
Financial Times
updated 5:12 p.m. ET, Sun., Nov. 4, 2007

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, is due to meet George W. Bush in Washington on Monday amid signs that a diplomatic and military crisis over PKK Kurdish separatist attacks across the Turkish-Iraqi ­border had slightly eased.

As Mr Erdogan was en route to the US, the PKK released eight Turkish soldiers it had captured two weeks ago in an incident that led to overt threats by Turkey to send its army into northern Iraq to crush the rebels' bases there.

Diplomats said the release of the soldiers would not of itself end the public, military, political and media pressure inside Turkey for a military incursion into Iraq, a move strongly opposed by the US, Iraq and much of the international community.

However, they said it would improve the context in which the talks between Mr Erdogan and the US president would take place, after weeks of deteriorating relations between Turkey and the US.

The context for the meeting was helped on Saturday when Iraq promised to step up efforts to shut down PKK bases in the mountains along the Turkish border.

Turkey remains sceptical of the ability of the Baghdad government to do so in an area controlled by the semi-autonomous Kurdish regional government.

But Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister, insisted that "a number of concrete measures" would be implemented, including checkpoints, disruption of supplies and logistics to the bases, and the closure of any PKK offices in northern Iraq.

"I can say that soon you will see these visible measures implemented on the ground in order to show the seriousness of our co-operation with the government of Turkey," Mr Zebari said. He was speaking in Istanbul after a conference of foreign ministers of Iraq's neighbours, which was attended by Ban Ki-Moon, United Nations secretary-general, and Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state.

Mr Erdogan is under intense pressure to order a large-scale military incursion into northern Iraq to pursue the PKK, which has killed nearly 50 Turkish ­soldiers and civilians in the past month.

The PKK is labelled a ­terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and the European Union.

Turkey has moved up to 100,000 soldiers and their equipment to the border with Iraq and has restricted the movements of civilians in the area. Several targeted raids across the border have been carried out and more are expected.

However, Mr Erdogan is said to be reluctant to see a large-scale invasion and would rather see the US and Iraq take military measures against the PKK.

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21623458/

quiet Bill November 4, 2007 - 6:19pm

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