By Hannes Artens
The writing is on the wall. In Turkey, a storm is brewing that may plunge the country into its worst political crisis since the turbulent 1970s that were ended by a military coup in 1980. In an unexpectedly unrelenting and confrontational move the Turkish Constitutional Court yesterday ruled a law easing the ban on headscarves at universities unconstitutional. But what may remind American readers of the recent controversy about the ten commandments being displayed in public buildings only constitutes the tip of the iceberg. The faultlines go much deeper. With its verdict to annul a constitutional amendment passed by the ruling AKP in February, the high court has taken sides as plain as can be in the political confrontation that has paralyzed the country's political system for months.
Now the justices are initiating proceedings to ban the AKP and its leading representatives, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gül, altogether. The stage is set for the ultimate confrontation between democratic, moderate-Islamist reformers and the Kemalist Deep State that has had a stranglehold over Turkish politics for decades. With the public deeply divided, the Turkish state faces its worst challenge in recent memory.
When commenting on such a move back in April, the German
Süddeutsche Zeitung summed up:
"If the ban of the AKP becomes a reality it will be nothing less than a putsch. Only this time it will be the judges who do the work of the military.
"The charge is the attempted overturn of the republic's secular order. That is ridiculous and merely a pretext.... The AKP's true crime is something different: It is too popular and has been too successful .... The old elite sees itself being squeezed; this caste of guardians of the republic, which has considered the state its possession since its foundation and considers the people as merely an ignorant mass to be led. … The members of this class call themselves "secular" … but internally they are authoritarian and deeply illiberal, who mistrust the minorities in their own country as much as they distrust foreigners. And particularly the EU, because it is constantly demanding more rights for the Kurds and Christians.
"A conservative AKP that occupies the political center in Turkey and pushes through liberal reforms is a far greater danger to this caste than if the AKP were really secretly Islamist. The AKP won an absolute majority of parliamentary seats in the last election -- a truly Islamist party would never find popular support in Turkey. Regardless of what happens, the case to ban the AKP is an attack on the opening up of the country, on democracy and civil rights, and on closer ties to the EU."
One couldn't agree more with this view. It is true that the
Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) originates from the
Refah Partisi (RP) of Necmettin Erbakan, Prime Minister from 1996 till 1997 and founder of the dubious
Milli Görüs movement (the major religious, transnational body among Turkish immigrants in Western Europe that is closely surveilled by all inteligence services for clearly Islamist tendencies and affiliations), whose democratic credentials may be questioned. Consequently, Erbakan was forced to resign by military ultimatum. The AKP, however, modeled after the German CSU (Bavaria's Christian Democratic Party that champions a social conservative communitarianism) constitutes a new generation of unquestionably democratic, pro-European and reform-minded politicians that put the economic and social intersts of the community and society over those of the individual while at the same time advocating for the unconditional implementation of personal (religious) freedoms. Although we should always remain on guard about the fringes of RP-survivors regaining ground within the AKP, its democratic bona fide is questioned nowhere outside Turkey today, and it is
hailed by
The Economist and
The Financial Times as Turkey's most succesful government in decades. The AKP's reformist accomplishments - from finally setting the country on track to join the European Union, to ending thirty years of hyper-inflation, significantly improving minority rights, defusing the notorious Article 301 that penalized the "denigration of Turkishness", embark on a groundbreaking, fundamental
re-interpretation and modernization of the hadith, investing tens of billions of Euros in Turkey's impoverished, Kurdish Southeast, mediating between Syria and Israel, and initiating a rapprochement with the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq - are legend.
These reforms have put the AKP at odds with the Deep State. This informal, anti-democratic coalition within the Turkish political system, comprising of the highest levels of Turkish intelligence, the military, the judicial branch, organized crime and ultra-nationalist parties - that can be traced back to Gladio, the clandestine NATO-sponsored, counter-guerrilla "stay behind" operations all across Europe in the first decades of the Cold War - portrays itself as the defender of Turkey's Kemalist secularism. In truth, though, its prime agenda today is to keep tab on the sinecures of power. Like the Bush administration 9/11, it abuses the public's fear of an Islamist state imposed through the backdoor to fight the AKP and its modernist agenda tooth and nail. Turkey's main opposition party, the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP) acts as its unpopular (in the 2007 elections, the grand old dame of Turkish politics just got 20%) but useful idiot; in fact, it's never exactly clear where the CHP ends and the Deep State begins.
Until yesterday, the AKP, thanks to its ever increasing popularity, managed to maintain an upper hand in this confrontation. When last year, the military threatened to oppose the presidency of Abdullah Gül by force, Erdogan fled into snap elections, which he won in a landslide. Now, the Deep State employs the Supreme Court to cook the AKP's goose - and seems to win the first round, thanks to Prime Minister Erdogan overplaying his hand like a bull in a china shop. Instead of linking the headscarf issue to other liberal reforms that would have ensured him public support beyond his base, he ran his head against a wall and was left out in the rain at the most crucial moment. Nonetheless, political commentators, I myself included, have hoped ever since the indictement against the AKP was filed in March that an overt showdown could be avoided at the eleventh hour, that the justices would allow the AKP to get away with a black eye:
"It [the annullment of the headscarf ban] is a verdict that went well beyond what observers had been expecting. Politicians and analysts alike had thought the court would merely request a supplementary law limiting the headscarf reform to the universities -- which would have maintained the ban in schools and for those working in public service positions. Instead, Turkey's high court has handed Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP party an important political defeat."
The Deep State appears hell-bent on going for nap and making no prisoners this time. As for the ban of the AKP and 71 of its senior administrators, the prime minister and the president included,
pundits now fear for the worst:
"Soli Ozel, an academic at Bilgi University in Istanbul, said of on Thursday's ruling: 'The militancy of this verdict will have important political ramifications and is a harbinger of things to come in the closure case.'"
As of
this morning, the AKP, who apparently expects a ban, is holding non-stop crises meetings. It's most likely response is a new foundation with which they'll head for snap elections, hoping to win a super majority that would enable them to curtail the rights of the Supreme Court to ban political parties. Now, that the Deep State has dared to go that bridge too far, it won't yield easily and, in the worst case, will employ the military to make sure that the AKP is silenced for good. The AKP, on the other hand, then may mobilize the streets in its defense - a recipe for disaster. Whatever Erdogan and Gül will ultimately decide on, since yesterday it is evident that Turkey is heading for turbulent times, that the battle-lines between democratic reformers and autocratic, shadowy powers are clearly drawn, and that for the West - Europe and America - there should be no doubt about whose side to stand on in this confrontation.
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Hannes Artens is the author of The Writing on the Wall, the first anti-Iran-war novel.