Iran's gas ties with South East Asia, its bid for SCO membership, and the New Great Game in Central Asia


By Hannes Artens

On Wednesday, CIA Director Michael Hayden made yet the boldest accusation by any high ranking U.S. official on Iran being directly involved in the killing of American soldiers in Iraq, more, he accused Iran of this strategy constituting government-approved policy: "It is my opinion, it is the policy of the Iranian government, approved to highest level of that government, to facilitate the killing of Americans in Iraq," Hayden said. "Just make sure there's clarity on that." Together with CJCS' Adm. Michael Mullen weighing "potential military courses of action" in public and SecDef Gates wanting the arrival of a second carrier in the Persian Gulf to be understood as a clear warning sign, the recent avalanche of bellicose rhetoric reaches levels of September last year when aerial strikes on Iran were more immanent than ever before.

Yet this hysterical hyperactivity may have another, less-known-to-the-public reason. Largely underreported by U.S. corporate media, as usual, Iran has made groundbreaking strategic inroads into Central and South East Asia over the last month with the potential to not only stultify Washington's sanctions regime but also to result in a new geopolitical balance of power that would render an attack on Iran virtually impossible. On March 24, Iran officially applied to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Central Asian security group dominated by Russia and China. On April 28, Iran and Pakistan reached final agreement on the $7.6 billion Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline (IPI) connecting the world's second biggest natural gas field, South Pars, with the Indian Subcontinent. Just one day later, China's interest to join the project was announced and President Ahmadinejad could celebrate a major diplomatic victory by New Delhi cold-shouldering Washington's threats and re-entering negotiations that, according to Ahmadinejad, could be finalized within 45 days with a targeted start of construction works next year.

Over the course of the last weeks it became painfully aware to the Bush Administration that not only its competitors but also its allies give a rat's ass about its containment strategy when it comes to their own energy security. History may show that America lost the New Great Game due to its shortsighted policy of (go-it-alone) isolationism and refusal to talk with Iran. Confronted with an axis of Moscow-Beijing-Tehran-Islamabad (and on an ad hoc, case-by-case basis, New Delhi) even ultra-hawk Dick Cheney is left with no option but to pack his suitcase and head for the retirement home.


The Shanghai Cooperation Organization with member states in blue and observers
states in green. Source: Wikipedia

The second of these interconnected developments, however, is up in the air in a mid-term perspective. The SCO, founded in 2001 and whose organizational form, principles and purpose were laid down at the St. Petersburg Summit in June 2002, is often wrongly compared to a Central Asian version of NATO. Contrary to the latter or the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of the Central Asian successor states (plus Armenia) of the former USSR, the SCO is an intergovernmental mutual security organization focusing on internal threats such as terrorism, separatism or drug trafficking but features no mutual defense clause against an external enemy. Although its role and importance is rapidly expanding - China pushes for the establishment of a free trade area and Russia for increased cooperation in energy security - the SCO at present still lacks a coherent agenda and a common ideology beyond Russia's understandable desire to reunite its former empire and China's drive for controlling the resources of the oil rich Central Asian republics. The legal aspects and rights of states with observer status are dubious at best and the procedures of the ascension process are embryonic in comparison to the EU and NATO.

There is no doubt that an SCO membership of Iran would have indubitable advantages for the SCO, especially for China, the more so if Pakistan were to also join. Iran already is its second biggest supplier of crude and the double impact of Iran and Pakistan closing ranks with Beijing in the SCO would open the Persian Gulf for the Chinese Navy thus enabling it to control the tanker routes - the lifeline of China's economic growth - from their origin at Bandar Abbas to the northern entry of the Strait of Malacca. For the U.S., such a development would mean a more devastating strategic defeat than Vietnam and Iraq combined; in fact, it would reverse America's victory in the Cold War. The whole point of occupying Iraq and threatening Iran with attacks is to maintain unconfined strategic supremacy over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz - if Iran were to become an SCO member, Washington, from one day to the other, would have to share it with its most likely adversary in the second half of the twenty-first century. Worse, a mere look at the above map suggests that America would have lost the New Great Game, the race for the oil riches of Central Asia - remember Unocal's involvement in the ill-fated Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline? - for good, and an attack on Iran would be as off the table as one on North Korea, no matter whether Dick Cheney and the entire Heritage Foundation and RAND Corporation are going postal like Rumpelstiltskin.

Having said that, despite the tantalizing bridal price, Iran will not become an SCO member any time soon, simply for the fact that Beijing isn't prepared yet to confront Washington openly on the world stage by writing a security check for Iran and transforming the SCO into a de facto anti-American alliance. For the time being, as long as they're in a catch-up race, Moscow and Beijing are interested in as multi-polar a world order as possible and have no desire to return to the confrontation of two antagonistic military blocks. But what isn't happening now can still occur sooner than many in Washington may think. Sergey Karanov, Chairman of the Russia-based Foreign and Defense Policy Council, ventilates the idea that an SCO membership and thus a certain security guarantee could act as the carrot for Iran to abandon its nuclear enrichment or to outsource it to an international (Russian dominated) consortium, thus depriving America of its official casus belli. Still, you can bet all your remaining idealism on not even a President Obama to let such a grand bargain happen. Before the U.S. Navy has to ask Chinese destroyers for right of passage in the Persian Gulf any American president will bomb Iran back into the Stone Age.

The second ground-braking development, the pipeline deal between Tehran, Islamabad and New Delhi, is of more immanent significance and may very well be the reason for the Pentagon's recent saber rattling. The true addressee of the threats eructated now on a daily basis by Petraeus, Hayden and Mullen may be India and China, cautioning them to abstain from bidding in the further exploitation of the South Pars Field, put IPI on hold, and not to undermine the West's anyway friable sanctions front through the backdoor. As Stephen Kinzer has pointed out in an interview here on TheAgonist, the NIE may have had the effect that a rigid, global sanctions regime is no longer possible to keep up - the less so with an oil price beyond $120 per barrel. Kaveh Afrasiabi analyzes the situation in the Asia Times:

"But, with the IPI likely to be finalized in the coming weeks, if not days, and with China and other players keen to participate in the international bidding for various aspects of this massive project, the US faces a triple jeopardy. These are:


  • Impose reprisals against its important allies and thus alienate them.

  • Inaction on this project makes US laws redundant and undermines the US's image and prestige.

  • De facto accommodation of the project will play into the hands of Iran in its strategic games in relation to the intrusive superpower."



Washington has managed so far by sweet-talking, coercion, and supporting Baloch uprisings (no matter that these threaten their ally Pakstan as much as the enemy Iran) to delay a decision on IPI for as long as possible. With the deal ready to sign, though, it's left with no other option than to block its funding at the World Bank. If China's involvement isn't only a pipe dream of Ahmadinejad's, these stalling tactics will have little effect but to further alienate America's most important South East Asian allies, Pakistan and India.

There can be no doubt, at present, the successful implementation of Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's policy re-orientation towards the East - negahe be shargh ("Look East") - will soon give America greater headaches than the "special groups" in Iraq. This threat to U.S. global supremacy is real, while the other is a chimera. The combination of both, though, may soon lead to war.

--
Hannes Artens is the author of The Writing on the Wall, the first anti-Iran-war novel.


Hannes Artens May 2, 2008 - 5:57am
( categories: Iran | Opinion )

I read somewhere recently that we are unknowingly sowing the seeds for a third World War, and somewhere else that our belligerence and our desperation for oil resembles that of Japan in the 1930s. What will the neocons float next, a Greater Middle East/Central Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere? This post gives the broad outlines of future coalitions and possibly security partners that may be arrayed against us, particularly if the US elects Senator McCain, but maybe even if we don't. Imagine our own warlords, far from being chastened by our modern-day version of Manchuria, huffily walking out on our modern-day version of the League of Nations, and reeling from OPEC member oil embargoes not unlike those imposed on Japan during 1930s. Even in a Cold-War scenario, you can quite easily see how the US military, and particularly the Navy, might be deployed in such a way as to take oil producing regions by force, and in so doing make oil so vulnerable, scarce, and subject to heretofore unimaginable price spikes and rationing, that in such a scenario, the oil would go almost exclusively to the warmaking capabilities. Civilians? Not high on the priority list.

Some of the US domestic signs might be a draft, and a reinvestment in military stock depleted from Iraq over and above our infrastructure necessities. We're already seeing a massive investment in China's military. Russia is floating high on oil; though Putin's preferred MO seems to be to work smart rather than work hard by using intelligence assets, he probably has the extra dough to strengthen Russia's military. Other signs might be transnational hostilities that threaten to boil over, and eventually do, drawing in neighbors and other nonregional actors. There are many to choose from--Georgia/Abkhazia/Ossetia/Russia/Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan, Iran/Iraq, Pakistan/India, China/Taiwan, North Korea/South Korea, Turkey/Kurdistan.

Thank you, George W. Bush.

Jonathryn May 2, 2008 - 8:39am

Japan's desperation for energy in the 1930's is somewhat justifiable compared to our own as the Japanese home islands have few energy resources. On the other hand, we have huge energy resources in the US. Our problem is that we squander them with an extravagance unrivaled in history and thus need more.
History will not judge us kindly for this waste. We will be seen as a nation of petty potentates running around in our SUV's. Same as the decadent historical ones eating gold or dissolving pearls in wine.
I also do not doubt that in the tiny minds of the Cheney/Bush regime such delusion and desperation exists.
This will curse us for years to come. But it is what happens when a passive population stops paying attention.

JT May 2, 2008 - 9:12am

One reason for China's interest in the pipelines is because of US control of the shipping lanes.

It won't be very long, a couple of decades maybe, and oil supplies could drop very sharply relative to demand. There is a lot more natural gas in CA than oil and Russia controls nearly all of it. The shift to LNG seems inevitable. The US and Russia have military bases there, and everyone has intense interest in a region marked by deep ethnic and political tension. How would Iran's acceptance into the SCO affect this dynamic do you think? The situation seems ripe already.


"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

ww May 2, 2008 - 9:21am

I agree with you, ww and Jonathryn, the conflicts of the future (over the coming thirty years until oil and LNG will have been replaced with more efficient and less costly alternatives) are already predetermined and oil and gas rich Central Asia as well as to a lesser extent Africa will be their prime battlefields, and the US and China their main antagonists. That's a truism, what's less known is that the US is already about to lose Central Asia. The SCO is much better positioned here and the current and Bill Clinton's administrations have played into their hands. I'm sure Sean Paul can tell you more about it as this region is his hobby horse, but I don't see the US making any ground in CA anymore. On the contrary.
China and Russia prosper on an energy symbiosis and as long as China doesn't interfere too much into the political systems of these autocratic republics, Russia is happy to provide them with what they want most: energy security. And in a quid pro quo Russia when buddy-buddying with China enjoys the influence, prestige and muscle of the good ol' days of the USSR.
Both, Iran and Pakistan are the ultimate prize for the SCO and I have no doubt Moscow and Beijing want them to join sooner than later. They just have to make sure that they're not drawn into a conflict over Iran with the US; hence the nuclear issue has to be settled first. Concerning Pakistan, China is already heavily engaged there and perceives it as its prime energy hub for the future. They're investing billions in the deep water port of Gwadar at the eastern entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, which they want to connect with three major pipelines, IPI, an underwater one connecting Gwadar with the UAE and Qatar and a third one running up to the gas fields of Turkmenistan. Thus they control both, the pipelines and the shipping lines. China's major concern in Pakistan is the support for the Taliban. BTW, Iran would act as a counterbalance for China and Russia in CA against the Saudi Arabia financed, primarily Sunni radicals in Uzbekistan et al.
To make a long story short, if Iran and Pakistan were to join the SCO, the US will have lost the New Great Game for good. And that's why Musharraf is still in power and why a war with Iran over the next four years is almost inevitable (if the US were not to reconsider its entire geopolitical approach).
On all this, I highly recommend Michael Ruppert's Crossing the Rubicon. I don't agree with all his conspiracy theories and question his scholarly background, but on many occasions his observations are a true eye opener.

Hannes Artens May 2, 2008 - 10:22am

Although its role and importance is rapidly expanding - China pushes for the establishment of a free trade area and Russia for increased cooperation in energy security - the SCO at present still lacks a coherent agenda and a common ideology beyond Russia's understandable desire to reunite its former empire and China's drive for controlling the resources of the oil rich Central Asian republics....

There is a very coherent agenda. These powers have been acting behind the scenes for some time, under Putin's aegis, to create an energy coalition to oppose US unipolarity without overtly roiling Washington

On March 24, Iran officially applied to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Central Asian security group dominated by Russia and China. On April 28, Iran and Pakistan reached final agreement on the $7.6 billion Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline (IPI) connecting the world's second biggest natural gas field, South Pars, with the Indian Subcontinent. Just one day later, China's interest to join the project was announced and President Ahmadinejad could celebrate a major diplomatic victory by New Delhi cold-shouldering Washington's threats and re-entering negotiations that, according to Ahmadinejad, could be finalized within 45 days with a targeted start of construction works next year....

This coalition is now coming to fruition.

There is no doubt that an SCO membership of Iran would have indubitable vantages for the SCO, especially for China, the more so if Pakistan were to also join. Iran already is its second biggest supplier of crude and the double impact of Iran and Pakistan closing ranks with Beijing in the SCO would open the Persian Gulf for the Chinese Navy thus enabling it to control the tanker routes - the lifeline of China's economic growth - from their origin at Bandar Abbas to the northern entry of the Strait of Malacca. For the U.S. such a development would mean a more devastating strategic defeat than Vietnam and Iraq combined, in fact it would reverse America's victory in the Cold War.

How's that for a coherent agenda?

Having said that, despite the tantalizing bridal price Iran will not become an SCO member any time soon, simply for the fact that Beijing isn't prepared yet to confront Washington openly on the world stage by writing a security check for Iran and transforming the SCO into a de facto anti-American alliance. For the time being, as long as they're in a race for catch up, Moscow and Beijing are interested in as multipolar a world order as possible and have no desire to return to the confrontation of two antagonistic military blocks.

Nuclear powers Russia and China don't want to provoke military confrontation, so they will proceed slowly and carefully, but their objective is clear.

Still, you can bet all your remaining idealism on not even a President Obama to let such a grand bargain happen. Before the U.S. Navy will have to ask Chinese destroyers for right of passage in the Persian Gulf any American president will bomb Iran back into the stone age.

Look for more saber-rattling, if not conflict with Iran sooner than later. Oh, and did I mention weaponizing space?

tjfxh May 2, 2008 - 9:50am

I should have been more specific by saying “coherent agenda beyond keeping the US out of Central Asia.” That’s a truism. But integrative agendas, common values, ideologies, and closer cooperation in other than cultural and military affairs is what the SCO lacks – at present. That this is evolving and in a constant flux towards further integration we witness with the proposed free trade area. Once this is accomplished and once the SCO has adopted a mutual defense clause, it will equal NATO in terms of regional integration.

Hannes Artens May 2, 2008 - 10:31am

I'd much rather that the boys in McLean spoil things for the SCO member nations as Putin tries to keep all these balls in the air. An ounce of prevention in the form of old-school diplomatic frisson leading to mistrust and dysfunctional alliances would be much preferable to the pounding cure the Marines mete out. The ways to do this are too numerous to count, but I'm not sure what was once the Directorate of Operations has the depth, degree of sophistication, or personnel and language experts to do it. I'd rather see Obama as president, given the three candidates we have, but of the three it appears that Clinton would make the shrewdest and best use of the CIA.

Jonathryn May 2, 2008 - 11:26am

Andrew Cockburn's piece on $300 Billion of secret funding for anti-Iran mayhem.

Will someone please ask the presidential candidates about this little tidbit--that passed with broad bipartisan support?

Petronius May 2, 2008 - 3:38pm

the author gave a qualified endorsement to Michael Ruppert, and this comment referring to Alexander... no wait, apparently it really is Andrew... Cockburn.

I read counterpunch for a couple months around Christmas time, and was pretty damn intrigued by it, until Alexander Cockburn posted a very self-satisfied assessment that global warming was a conspiracy/hoax cooked up by Al Gore and some other assorted persons for financial gain. It was a trite, pathetic, and utterly wrong argument, and it so throughly destroyed the credibility of him and his editorial direction of the newsletter in my mind that I haven't read it since.

I ordered Crossing the Rubicon in the mail, but it was returned to sender cause the box was too big for my apartment-complex mail slot, and by the time those five weeks had passed, this Cockburn moment had come and gone and I wasn't sure I wanted to read it anymore either.

Anyway, can anyone speak to the relative quality of these kinds of sources? It seems like they talk about fundamentals (energy, debt, balance-of-trade, drug/arms trade, finance, capital, military-industrial sector) in ways that mainstream "political" sources never do, and I want to hear about fundamentals. On the other hand, they seem to be flat over-the-edge on at least some subjects (WTC and global warming as conspiracies??), and that makes them difficult to believe on any subject.

I can't figure out how to deal with this problem, so if anyone has figured out the nature of these peoples' credibility or sources for information that are both complete and credible, I'd be really really interested...

texas dem May 2, 2008 - 4:34pm

Alexander Cockburn is the eldest of the tribe; Patrick and Andrew are his younger brothers. Alex is spot-on on some matters and way off the main path on others (e.g. global climate change). I can take him or leave him. I was surprised to see Andrew's name on the byline for this Iran article--he's usually not that visible on Counterpunch.

Cockburn has a lot of other guest writers, so the selection can be quite varied.

Petronius May 3, 2008 - 12:53am

I am worried because if these groups join forces, we are vulnerable.
Instead of attacking Iran, on the other side of the world. We might be a better target.
We are being isolated from the US because of stricter border crossing rules.
Instead of being a neighbour, we are becoming a foreign country.
A foreign country is easier to invade than a neighbour.

repressive governments mix administrative clumsiness & inefficiency with authoritarian tendencies.

kimmy May 2, 2008 - 4:25pm

Canada is number two when it comes to proven oil reserves, right after Saudi Arabia and ahead of Iraq and Iran.

Petronius May 2, 2008 - 4:29pm

I know only too much.

repressive governments mix administrative clumsiness & inefficiency with authoritarian tendencies.

kimmy May 2, 2008 - 5:20pm

Canada is the 51st state (and Mexico is the 52nd). That's what NAFTA is just the beginning of. This "war" is economic. Canada has resources and Mexico has cheap and plentiful labor to feed the hungry beast.

tjfxh May 2, 2008 - 6:46pm

As I said Canadians are pragmatic, not idealistic. The country is rife with historic compromises between English and French and Catholics and Protestants. So we have Catholic schools fully funded by the province of Ontario and school systems based on language in Quebec.

So Canada is far from the 51st state. Most Canadians wouldn't move to the States; you could say that those that want to, have. (In fact the only real advantage that the States have is the climate.)

Since the Iraq war, Canadian perceptions of the US have become more negative. Normally, when the US and Canadian dollars are close to par, Canadians start to make day trips over the border to buy groceries and do other shopping en masse. This is not happening to the extent it did in the '80s.
Albert

Albertde May 3, 2008 - 8:59am

Canada could have some very profound effects on US policy. For example, were Canada to officially legalize marijuana, the US would almost surely follow, as the "war on drugs" for that particular drug would be lost.

As I understand the situation, the Canadian electorate is overwhelmingly in favor to do just that.

Of course, the residents of BC would have to go back to logging for a living, but they'd lose much of the organized crime that deals with smuggling bud into the US.

Petronius May 3, 2008 - 10:34am

Not truly the situation. Your Right Wing has convinced you that we are socialist because we have provincial taxpayer-funded government medicare. Our drug policies have been more lenient than yours.

I think you are naive to believe that what Canada does or will do has any influence on the US.

The real problem for us is that your RW is doing its best to destroy what we have in Canada.
Albert

Albertde May 3, 2008 - 4:05pm

Almost as we speak the heads of government of the US, Canada and Mexico are meeting (under the aegis of the 25 largest multinationals) to discuss economic cooperation. The US is definitely the elephant in the room here. The US, Canada and Mexico are joined at the hip economically and are in the process of becoming Siamese twins at the behest of the multinationals.

tjfxh May 3, 2008 - 2:33pm

The Conservatives in power in these countries can only go so far.

In Mexico, the deal breaker is privatizing Petroleos Mexicanos, which would lead to widespread protests. Mexican schools celebrate the nationalization of the oil industry. On March 18th, each child in a Mexican school receives a model oil well with a US flag on it. At the appointed time, the child pulls down the US flag and replaces it with the Mexican flag to signify that the oil belongs to Mexico.

In Canada, the deal breaker would be the end of medicare. No Canadian government would survive if that happened.
Albert

Albertde May 3, 2008 - 4:15pm

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