http://discuss.agonist.org/smf/index.php?topic=14212.250

BEIJING - China's government won't interfere in price talks between its steel makers and foreign iron ore suppliers, a Cabinet minister said Friday, though the government insisted it can't afford another jump in already high prices.

The comments by Ma Kai, the minister in charge of China's main planning agency, came after suppliers expressed alarm at suggestions the world's top steel producer might try to dictate prices following a 71.5 percent rise in iron ore costs over the past year.

"The government will not interfere in setting the price, and the price will be decided by the market," Ma told a visiting group of U.S. newspaper editors.

Ma said, however, that China plans to restrain the growth of its steel industry this year in order to conserve energy and water and cut demand for costly imported raw materials.

China's iron ore imports from Australia, Brazil and other producers rose 37 percent last year amid high demand by its booming automaking, construction and other industries.

Chinese steel makers are in talks with suppliers BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group of Australia and Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce over the price of long-term contracts. The suppliers reportedly want price increases of 15 to 20 percent, to take effect April 1.

Ma's agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Commerce Ministry issued a statement this week expressing dismay at rising iron ore prices and calling them unacceptable.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2006-03/18/content_544381.htm

LONDON: Major base metals stepped back from new price highs yesterday on profit-taking, but the industrial metals market looks comfortable at current levels, analysts said.
Benchmark copper ended the open-outcry sessions at $5,109 a tonne at midday, just up from Tuesday’s close of $5,105 on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
The metal, used in construction and electronics, hit a record high of $5,186 on Tuesday.
Zinc, used in galvanising to protect steel from corrosion, hit a new record of $2,525 yesterday, settling at $2,520, up $10.
In precious metals, silver hit a fresh 22-year peak of $10.59 an ounce as speculators ploughed more money into the market after US regulators moved to approve an exchange-traded fund.
“People sold copper yesterday at the highs but have been quick to buy back short positions and are looking to go long again this morning,” one dealer said.
“We are seeing buying, not only from the speculators but also from consumers.
Fund buying is undoubtedly the main driver, but there is underlying demand from industry,” he said.
Consumers have become more comfortable with copper at previously unthinkable levels of $4,500-$5,000, and price rises have been passed down through the chain, traders said.
But some sounded a warning note, saying market sentiment had become more realistic after a month-long corrective phase halted what had become an almost vertical ascent in major metals in early-February.
“All in all, it is hard to feel too confident about copper’s recent bout of strength and the move above $5,100 runs the risk of turning out to be a false break-out,” William Adams, an analyst for BaseMetals.com, said in his Tuesday evening note.
Given tight global supply of zinc concentrate and strong demand for zinc-coated steel for construction, vehicles and other uses, zinc prices have risen more than 30% since the end of last year.
Dealers noted that zinc corrected down to $1,960/70 in mid-February.
“That cleared out the weaker longs. Zinc has potential for $200 more on the upside. What we don’t want to see is a close below the previous high of $2,420,” a third trader said.
Aluminium traded at $2,470, against a previous close of $2,500. Earlier this year aluminium traded as high as $2,678, the highest for 17-1/2 years.
Silver, meanwhile surged to its highest in more than 22 years yesterday on strong speculative buying after US regulators took a big step towards finally approving the market’s first exchange-traded fund (ETF), dealers said.
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March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may advance for a third straight week as investors buy bullion for protection against a falling dollar, a Bloomberg News survey shows.

Eighteen of 38 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to Chicago on March 23 and March 24 advised buying gold, which last week rose $5.40 to $560.50 an ounce in New York. Fourteen respondents advised selling and six were neutral.

Gold has risen 8 percent this year and touched a 25-year high last month after the U.S. currency fell 1.5 percent against the euro. The dollar's decline March 24 was the biggest in a week, after a government report showed new U.S. home sales dropped by the most in almost nine years.

``Gold will always rally off the weak dollar,'' said Thomas Hartmann, an analyst aT Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc., a futures brokerage in Mission Viejo, California. ``This is the fourth of the last six months that housing starts have been negative. That doesn't bode too well for the dollar.''

The 1 percent gain in gold futures last week on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was predicted by a majority of analysts in a survey March 16 and March 17. The Bloomberg survey has forecast the direction of prices accurately in 60 of 100 weeks, or 60 percent of the time.

Gold rallied 32 percent in the past year as investors poured money into commodities, seeking better returns than U.S. stocks and bonds. Some bullion owners speculate the economy will slow, eroding the value of the dollar as the Federal Reserve ends more than a year of interest-rate increases.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's stocks climbed to all- time highs, led by BHP Billiton and Newcrest Mining Ltd. after copper rose to a record and gold gained in New York.

``These are the strongest global conditions for metals since the sixties, since bell-bottoms were in,'' said Hans Kunnen who helps manage about $70 billion of assets at Sydney-based Colonial First State, Australia's biggest fund manager. ``There's room for the miners' earnings to grow more than the market currently expects.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aCdztM48d4DM&refer=asia

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver prices surged, trading at the highest since the early 1980s, as investment funds bet precious metals will outperform U.S. stocks and bonds. Platinum and palladium also gained.

Gold has gained 14 percent this year, and silver has soared 31 percent, outpacing a 4.2 percent increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Investment in the StreetTracks Gold fund linked to the price of the precious metal has jumped by about a third this year to 11.2 million ounces. A similar fund for silver is under review by regulators.

``Precious metals are booming,'' said Herwig Schmidt, a trader at Triland Metals Ltd. in London. ``If you have a huge amount of money and limited commodities, this is what happens.''

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index of 16 companies climbed to seven-week high, including record highs for Toronto-based producer Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. and Glamis Gold Ltd. of Denver. Newmont Mining Corp., the world's largest gold producer, was up 2.5 percent after surging more than 5 percent.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $13.20, or 2.3 percent, to $591.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price for the most- active contract since January 1981. Silver for May delivery rose 54.5 cents, or 4.9 percent, to $11.66. Prices are at the highest since September 1983.

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.

Please tag long URL's

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Copper futures in Shanghai rose to a record as investors increased purchases of metals to diversify their assets and seek higher returns than stocks and bonds.

Copper has jumped 36 percent in Shanghai and 32 percent in London since the end of November. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has risen 4.6 percent, and holders of the benchmark 10- year U.S. Treasury lost 1.6 percent in the same period. Economies in the U.S., Europe and Japan will keep growing this quarter, the OECD forecasts, boosting demand for the metal used in pipes, wiring and building.

``The funds are likely to keep buying metals like copper, as overall macroeconomic indicators are still positive,'' Zhong Min, futures trading manager at Jinrui Futures Co. in Shanghai, said by phone today.

Copper for delivery in June rose as much as 2,000 yuan, or 4 percent, to a record 52,000 yuan ($6,483) a metric ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. That's the maximum daily percentage gain allowed on the exchange. The metal traded at 51,870 yuan at 10:44 a.m. local time.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said March 6 it forecasted higher growth to be recorded in the U.S., Europe and Japan, the world's three biggest economies, in the three months ended March 31.

Nonresidential construction spending, which includes office buildings, factories, and schools, rose 0.1 percent in February, the U.S. Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Compared with the same month a year earlier, nonresidential construction increased 7.9 percent.

A survey yesterday showed manufacturing in Europe expanded at the fastest pace in five years in March.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aQZaws8IukRo&refer=home

ULAN BATOR, Mongolia (AP) - About 3,000 protesters clashed with police Wednesday, demanding that Mongolian President Nambaryn Enkhbayar and other officials resign in a dispute over a contract with Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. of Vancouver (TSX:IVN) to mine a huge copper deposit.

Protesters gathered in the Mongolian capital's central square and tried to march to the adjacent Government House but were blocked by about 300 police.

The protesters want Enkhbayar's government to push for more favourable terms from Ivanhoe, which wants a concession to mine the Oyu Tolgoi copper deposit that it discovered in the country's south.

There have been no accusations that Ivanhoe acted improperly.

Copper mining is a major part of the economy of this impoverished former Soviet satellite, a sprawling grassland where many people are traditional nomadic herders of cattle and sheep.

Politicians have clashed repeatedly over how to exploit the country's mineral resources. The opposition accuses the government of giving away Mongolia's wealth and wants the national minerals law changed to give the government a large share in any foreign-owned mine.

"We are demonstrating against foreign mining companies getting too much of our wealth," said B. Batdorj, a university student who took part in the protest on Wednesday.

"Mongolian people should get more benefit from the natural resources of Mongolia than foreign mining companies."

Protesters included members of Mongolia's Green party and the Radical Reform, Just Society and Our Mongolian Land civic activist groups.

They also demanded the resignation of Finance Minister N. Bayartsaikhan and Minister of Industry and Trade B. Jargalsaikhan, who are in charge of negotiations with Ivanhoe.
http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/060405/b040546.html

April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices rose to the highest in more than 25 years as investors bought bullion to hedge against rising energy prices and to diversify assets.

Crude oil traded near a record in New York on concern a dispute over Iran's nuclear program will disrupt oil supplies and spur inflation. Some investors buy gold as inflation increases to preserve purchasing power.

``People have been buying gold for speculation, safe haven and inflationary hedge,'' Darren Heathcote, head of trading at N.M. Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Ltd., said by phone from Sydney. ``Funds have been buying it up. We remain bullish. The immediate target today may be $620.''

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $2.04, or 0.3 percent, to $615.52 an ounce, the highest since Dec. 8, 1980. It traded at $614.97 at 11:19 a.m. Sydney time.

The precious metal surged to $873 an ounce in 1980, when consumer prices jumped more than 12 percent.

Crude oil for May delivery traded at $70.46 a barrel, up 9 cents from yesterday's record close of $70.40. Futures touched $70.45, the highest intraday price since Aug. 31, two days after Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.

Iran has expanded its underground nuclear sites in the cities of Isfahan and Natanz, the Institute for Science and International Security said. The UN Security Council demanded the suspension of Iran's program by the end of this month. Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, has refused.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

By Chet Currier

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- The world's commodity markets are making financial history.

They have staged a powerful rally heralding the emergence of a great global economic boom. Take a gander at the price of copper, which has roughly tripled in the last two years.

Oil, the commodity making the biggest headlines, last week soared above $75 a barrel for the first time. Gold, at more than $650 a troy ounce, looks to be mounting a challenge to the record highs set 25 years ago. Silver rocketed 8 percent on Friday when a new trading vehicle, the Ishares Silver Trust exchange-traded fund, made its debut.

All this has produced whoops of vindication from the commodity faithful, who spent the 1980s and 1990s sitting on the sidelines while paper assets such as stocks and bonds prospered.

It has also brought cries of alarm. However long it lasts, many voices of experience say, the commodity rally is headed toward a collapse like the one that ended the last great upsurge, which occurred in the 1970s.

Old hands remember the dawn of the 1980s, when the silver market plunged about 75 percent in less than four months. This time, says a poll of brokers and research companies released yesterday by Australia's Access Economics, commodity prices may be ripe for a decline of as much as 50 percent in the next two years.

Speculation

``Prices at these levels can't be justified based on fundamentals only,'' says Christoph Eibl, head of commodities trading at Tiberius Asset Management AG in Zug, Switzerland. ``While we haven't seen the top of the market yet, the risk of prices collapsing is very high.''

To any contrarian investor, such entrenched skepticism might look like a sign that the resurgent commodities markets still have plenty of room to roam. So they may.

Whatever happens in this market cycle, however, the advance still bears all the earmarks of a rally in a bear market -- a bear market that dates back a century or more, dictated by inexorable forces in economic history.

Over the 20 years from the end of 1979 through the end of 1999, according to my Bloomberg, a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. index of spot commodity prices declined 1 percent a year while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the stock market climbed at an 18 percent annual rate.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=currier&sid=aOHoDfj0eRE0

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Falconbridge Ltd. workers at its Lomas Bayas copper mine in Chile accepted a sweetened wage offer, averting a strike, a union leader said today.

A union representing about 305 workers at the mine accepted an offer for an immediate 7 percent wage increase above inflation, canceling a walkout planned for May 8, said Hector Magna, the union's treasurer.

``Most of the union members were pretty satisfied with the offer,'' Magna said in a telephone interview. ``There won't be a strike.''

Concern that labor unrest, including a strike under way at a mine in Mexico, will hamper deliveries of copper, and rising demand for the metal in China, has led prices to more than double in a year and surge 67 percent this year.

Unions in Chile at Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, and BHP Billiton Plc's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, also will hold wage talks this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a.nbIdAlbRwY&refer=latin_america

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose to $8,000 a ton for the first time as a mine closing in Mexico fueled speculation that returns from metals will keep outpacing stocks and bonds. Zinc and platinum reached records and aluminum surged.

Copper has gained as labor disputes and production threats from Mexico to Indonesia have dented global stockpiles. Grupo Mexico SA, the world's seventh-largest producer, said today it shut the San Martin mine as a strike deepened concern about safety. Copper prices are up 148 percent in the past year.

``It's hard to see how the momentum can stop,'' said Roy Carson, a London-based trader at Triland Metals Ltd., which trades on the floor of the London Metal Exchange, the world's biggest metals bourse. ``Continued speculative buying'' is stoking metals prices, he said.

Copper for delivery in three months rose $185, or 2.4 percent, to $8,000 a metric ton at 3:24 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, after earlier reaching a record $8,060. The metal, used in wiring and plumbing, has risen 82 percent this year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for July delivery rose 5.9 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $3.655 a pound at 10:25 a.m., after reaching an all-time high of $3.6745. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date.

Pension and hedge funds are pouring money into commodities as raw materials from sugar to oil generate returns that are outpacing other assets. Crude oil gained 16 percent this year in New York and traded above $70 a barrel today. Fund investments in commodities may exceed $120 billion by 2008, up from $80 billion last year, according to Barclays Plc.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aZHBLtDBdDu0&refer=news_index

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Copper soared above $4 a pound for the first time and nickel and zinc rose to records on signs that higher prices have done nothing to curb demand. Gold climbed to a 26-year high and platinum jumped to the highest ever.

Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell the most in five weeks, as makers of wire and pipe tapped inventory to make up for a shortfall from mines. Strikes and declining ore grades in Mexico and Indonesia have cut copper output this year. Demand will climb 5.7 percent this year after rising 1.8 percent last year, according to Citigroup Inc.

``There's no indication as to when this extraordinary and resilient cycle will end,'' Nick Moore, a London-based analyst at ABN Amro Holding NV, who has tracked metals for 22 years, said in an interview. ``Every day I'm stunned as prices keep going up.''

Copper for delivery in three months on the LME rose $530, or 6.6 percent, to $8,600 a metric ton at 6:53 p.m. in London, after reaching a record $8,800. Prices have doubled in six months. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for July delivery rose 23.5 cents, or 6.4 percent, to $3.923 a pound, after reaching a record $4.04.

Oil in New York rose as high as $73.90 a barrel, up 19 percent this year, helping commodity indexes outperform stock indexes. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has gained 38 percent in the past year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index of U.S. companies has risen 12 percent.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a7OP_3PUdIu0&refer=news_index

NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold prices surged to a new 25-year high above $725 an ounce Thursday, on inflationary worries expressed by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Persistent concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions also lifted the metal, which is viewed as a hedge against currency weakness, inflation and geopolitical instability.

The June gold contract rose as high as $728 an ounce Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its strongest level since 1980. It eased back in morning trading to $726.50, up $20.80 on the day.

The gains came despite the dollar's modest recovery against other major currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted interest rates to 5 percent and left the door open for further hikes.

Gold investors focused instead on the inflationary fears expressed in the Fed's statement and on the possible inflationary impact of surging prices of crude oil prices and industrial metals, traders and analysts said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060511/gold_prices.html?.v=9

By Mark Boucher

One of the top secular themes listed in our "2006 Investment Roadmap" (see below for details) was the trend in metals. Since 2002 we have emphasized the secular nature of the run-up in precious and base metals and have suggested core positions in precious metals and precious metal stocks as well as in base metals (which have so far outperformed precious substantially). We particularly liked GLD the gold iShares, which made gold purchases much easier for investors. This week the silver iShares debuted. SLV now allows stock market investors to purchase silver just like it was a stock. In PSL our aggressive Major Theme portfolio, bought July silver at 10.291 and has profited nicely from the wild run-up, particularly since March.
Investors should note that gold made a peak just after the first iShares in it came on the market. Will silver do the same? Last week's lows appear critical in this regard, as does the 15 level which has resisted rallies for many years.
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060505/14276.html?.v=1

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- Mittal Steel Co. officially launched its $27 billion offer for rival Arcelor SA, seeking a tie-up that would join the world's two largest steelmakers into a global titan. The cash and stock offer, launched in Luxembourg, France and Belgium is open until June 29. Mittal said it also will launch a bid in Spain and the United States when market regulators clear the offer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060518/mittal_arcelor.html?.v=5

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Gold gained in London as a decline in the dollar against currencies including the euro spurred investors to buy the metal as an alternative investment to U.S. stocks and bonds.

The U.S. currency fell against the euro as European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the single currency's 7.9 gain this year won't derail growth in the region. Gold has climbed 33 percent this year, peaking at a 26-year high last week. It fell the most since 1993 on May 15.

``Dollar weakness may be the catalyst for a move higher,'' Frederic Panizzutti, a senior vice president at MKS Finance, a Geneva-based precious-metals trading and refining company, said in an interview today. ``Pension funds, money managers and funds are still interested in buying gold as a balance in their portfolio.''

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $5.60, or 0.8 percent, to $692.70 an ounce. Bullion traded at $687.20 as of 12:37 p.m. in London. It earlier fell as low as $679.13.

The dollar traded at $1.2779, from $1.2743 last night in New York.

Bullion fell 5.2 percent on May 15 on speculation that a rally that had driven metals including copper, platinum and zinc to a record this year was exaggerated.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities rebounded, led by copper and silver, on speculation a rally that drove prices to records isn't over as demand for some raw materials exceeds production.

Copper climbed 6 percent, its largest increase since May 11, silver rose the most in two weeks and gold gained for the first session in five. Oil topped $70 a barrel for a first session in four. Commodities posted their biggest declines in 25 years last week as some investors bet prices were exaggerated.

``The underlying fundamentals of supply and demand around the world remain the same,'' Charles ``Chip'' Goodyear, chief executive officer of BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, said in a teleconference today. ``We are seeing very good economic conditions around the world, the supply side is still struggling to keep up.''

Copper for delivery in three months jumped as much as $615 to $8,195 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Earlier it fell as much as 2.3 percent to $7,405. Silver for immediate delivery gained as much as 55 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $13.07 an ounce, recording the biggest daily gain since May 9.

Crude oil soared $1.76, or 2.5 percent, to $70.99 a barrel, a level last seen May 17. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Futures Price Index of 19 commodities, including base and precious metals, rose 2.07, or 0.6 percent, to 346.28. The index declined to a one-month low of 337.54 on May 19.

Commodities declined last week as speculative investors cut their holdings on concern global interest rates will increase, curbing demand. Copper dropped as much as 9 percent on May 15, its biggest one-day decline since October 2004. Gold fell 8.3 percent last week.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aPgvqQTUuxqk&refer=news_index

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Elko, Nevada, has a new Home Depot store. Its Wal-Mart doubled in size in the last year, and a 100- acre truck and rail complex is taking shape east of town.

There's a reason for all the activity in Elko, a community of 19,000 that became a transportation center for the mining industry back in 1868. Newmont Mining Corp., the world's biggest gold producer, is investing $1 billion in northern Nevada, and is recruiting miners and engineers from as far away as Alaska, Canada and Mexico.

Global demand for metals is reviving old mining towns in the western U.S., bringing high-paying jobs and new investment, boosting sales and tax revenue, and stoking demand for more housing. ``In small communities, there seems to be a bustle of excitement,'' said William Jacobson, chief executive officer of Atlas Mining Co. in Osburn, Idaho, which is attempting to reopen for exploration what was once the U.S.'s richest silver mine.

``People are going back to work, and goods and services are showing increases in sales,'' he says.

The economic resurgence is unfolding in cities such as Elko, Butte, Montana, and Wallace, Idaho, that were hit hard by slumping metals prices over the past two decades. Western mountain states from Montana and Idaho to Arizona and New Mexico had 4 percent job growth and a 19 percent rise in housing prices in the fourth quarter of 2005, greater than other regions of the country. Mineral-rich Wyoming and Montana have had the highest per-capita income growth of all 50 states since 2000, government figures show.

``Commodity and energy prices have been a significant boost to those economies,'' said Marshall Vest, director of economic and business research at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

In Nevada, the top gold-producing state, mining companies paid $103.4 million in state and local taxes in 2004, the most recent year available, a 20 percent increase from 2002, said Russ Fields, president of the Nevada Mining Association.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a6eQD8EXeFG8&refer=latin_america

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks slumped worldwide, led by emerging markets, and commodities fell on concern that central banks will stifle economic growth as they raise interest rates.

``The realization that the economy isn't going to continue at its breakneck speed has shaken some investors out,'' said Guy Stern, chief investment officer for the U.K. and U.S. at Credit Suisse Asset Management in London. ``There may have been too much growth priced into the market.''

Morgan Stanley Capital International's World Index, a gauge of 23 developed markets, fell 1.6 percent to 1276.95 as of 4:25 p.m. in New York. A rebound in U.S. stocks limited the decline. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tumbled 3.8 percent to 698.88.

Copper, aluminum and zinc led declines in metals and crude oil dropped for a third day in New York. Shares of BHP Billiton, BP Plc and other commodity producers were the day's worst performers. Bonds and the dollar gained.

The European Central Bank raised its benchmark rate a quarter point for the third time in six months. Denmark also increased borrowing costs. India, South Africa and South Korea lifted rates unexpectedly, and their stock markets tumbled. Federal Reserve policy makers this week signaled that U.S. inflation must be restrained.

Emerging markets have led global declines in equities in the past month as the prospect of higher rates led investors to favor safer assets. MSCI's emerging-markets index, tracking 25 markets, has fallen 21 percent from an all-time high on May 8.

``The violence of the sell-off has surprised people,'' said Andrew Milligan, chief strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, which oversees the equivalent of $231 billion of client assets. ``We expect several months of uncertainty and volatility, and people not wanting to put risk onto the table.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aGo_cKsfr8.s&refer=asia

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Copper futures in fell in Asian trade on speculation that a rally that drove the metal to a record last month doesn't reflect demand.

Copper fell 8.3 percent in London and 4 percent in Shanghai last week as central banks from Asia to Europe raised interest rates to curb inflation, stoking concern that demand for the metal may falter as economic growth slows. Five out of eight traders, analysts and investors survyed by Bloomberg News on June 8 and 9 said copper will drop on the London Metal Exchange this week. Three forecast a rise.

``The rally in the LME market was overdone,'' Yuan Fang, a trader at Shanghai Dongya Futures Co, said. ``We expect London prices to slide further as it didn't hold to $7,000'' a ton.

Copper for delivery in three months on the LME dropped as much as $270, or 3.7 percent, to $6950 a ton. The contract has dropped by more than a fifth since reaching a record $8,800 a ton on May 11. It traded at $7,000 at 12:16 p.m. Shanghai time.

Copper for delivery in August on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 3,340 yuan, or 5 percent, the maximum move allowed, to 63,280 yuan ($7,900) a metric ton. The contract, which remained limit-down at midday break, has fallen more than quarter since reaching a record 85,550 yuan a ton on May 15.

``Investment funds probably have withdrawn some of the money from commodities,'' said Shanghai Dongya Futures' Yuan.

Speculators have been attracted to copper by forecasts that demand will exceed production this year. Investment funds have also increased their holdings of commodities to diversify away from stocks and bonds.

HSBC Holdings Plc estimated last month about $100 billion will be invested in commodity indexes by the end of 2006, compared with $10 billion at the end of 2003.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=asdDh2SCaSwk&refer=asia

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- Mittal Steel Co. said Friday it was in advanced talks with takeover target Arcelor SA that could see it drop its opposition to Mittal's $33 billion offer.

"We can confirm that we are in advanced and constructive discussions with Arcelor which may or may not lead to a recommended transaction," Mittal said in a statement. "We remain committed to enhancing value for our shareholders."

Luxembourg-based Arcelor's board meets Sunday to weigh both Mittal's offer -- which it has fought off since January -- and a plan to merge with Russian partner OAO Severstal that, combined with a share buyback, was viewed as a defense against Mittal.

Amid speculation that Mittal may raise its bid a second time, few shareholders have tendered their stakes to the offer closing on July 5. The Spanish market regulator CNMV published a statement from Mittal on Friday, saying the company had bought just 0.2 percent of Arcelor's capital by June 22.

Mittal needs to win at least 50 percent of the shares for the bid to succeed.

Trading in Arcelor shares was suspended Wednesday after French, Belgian, Spanish and Luxembourg market regulators asked for "firm and final" information for shareholders on both the Mittal and Severstal bids. They said shares should trade again by Monday at the latest.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060623/luxembourg_arcelor_mittal.html?.v=5

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- OneSteel Ltd., Australia's second- biggest steelmaker, will buy Smorgon Steel Group Ltd. for A$1.6 billion ($1.2 billion) to expand into scrap metal and fend off imports from China, South Korea and Taiwan.

The cash and stock offer values Melbourne-based Smorgon at A$1.76 a share, 31 percent higher than the June 23 closing price. Sydney-based OneSteel will also assume A$1.1 billion of debt, the companies said in a statement today.

Buying Smorgon, which makes steel from scrap, will increase OneSteel's output capacity by about 50 percent. Planned global steel takeovers so far this year, including Mittal Steel Co.'s bid for Arcelor SA, total $62.6 billion compared with $9.3 billion in the first half of 2005 as mills seek to cut costs.

``These two companies have good reason to be put together because they have complementary businesses and larger companies tend to do better than smaller ones,'' said Ross Barker, who holds Smorgon shares among the A$180 million he helps manage at Mirrabooka Investments Ltd. in Melbourne. ``You get synergy and the ability to market is improved.''

Shares of Smorgon rose 43 cents, or 32 percent, to A$1.77 at the 4:15 p.m. close on the Sydney stock exchange. OneSteel gained 14 cents, or 3.5 percent, to A$4.09.

`Better Control'

Arcelor yesterday agreed to a 26.9 billion euros ($33.7 billion) takeover bid from Mittal Steel, to create the world's largest steelmaker to increase bargaining powers with customers and raw materials producers.

The acquisition will increase OneSteel's pretax profit by 76 percent, with cost savings adding a further 10 percent in three years, the company said. With Smorgon's scrap business, and OneSteel's own iron ore production, the combined company will have better control over raw materials costs, OneSteel Chief Executive Officer Geoff Plummer said on a teleconference.

``A lot of steel companies have to merge just to compete in the global market,'' said Atul Lele, who helps manage the equivalent of $254 million at White Funds Management in Sydney, and holds OneSteel stock. ``It's a positive for Smorgon shareholders.''

Both companies buy hot-rolled coil, a basic steel product, from BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia's largest steelmaker, to process. Prices of hot-rolled coil, which have fallen by more than $100 a metric ton, may rebound after miners this year won a 19 percent increase in the price of iron ore, an ingredient in steelmaking.

Smorgon's board of directors unanimously recommended the offer to shareholders, which will be voted on in October.

`Cheaper Imports'

Both companies are fighting cheaper imports from Asian competitors. Smorgon in February said it had to cut prices of its steel-tube products because of competition from cheaper imports, which account for 30 percent of the Australian market.

The two companies have filed a dumping case against oversea suppliers of some steel products. Dumping, banned under World Trade Organization rules, is when products are sold at a discount compared with prices in the producer's home market.

``We've got to compete against alternative suppliers on a regional basis,'' OneSteel's Plummer said, citing competition from China, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia. ``The restructuring of the industry that started seven to eight years ago has been amplified with the news of the likely outcome of what's happening with Mittal and Arcelor.''

Tubes, Pipes

OneSteel, which makes tubes, pipes and other steel products for construction, cars and agricultural use, will get access to Smorgon's grinding balls and scrap businesses.

The combined company expects to generate sales of more than A$5.5 billion and profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of about A$700 million for the year ending June 30. Smorgon's Managing Director Ray Horsburgh will retire after the acquisition is completed.

There will be cost savings and other benefits from combining the companies that will boost earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization by A$70 million a year by the end of the third year, the companies said. The merger will add to earnings per share in the first full year, they said.

OneSteel produces about 1.7 million tons a year of steel a year and Smorgon makes 923,000 tons of new steel from 1.4 million tons of scrap. Mittal produced 63 million tons of steel last year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aj.eW.9Q5YWY&refer=asia

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Arcelor SA agreed to a 26.9 billion- euro ($33.7 billion) purchase by Mittal Steel Co., the steel industry's biggest takeover, ending a five-month feud.

Mittal raised its bid for a second time to 40.40 euros a share, the companies said at a press conference today in Luxembourg. Rotterdam-based Mittal, already the world's largest steel producer, previously offered 23.5 billion euros.

Chairman Lakshmi Mittal ``was jubilant'' about the deal, director Wilbur Ross said in a telephone interview. Ross, the U.S. billionaire who sold his International Steel Group to Mittal for $4.5 billion last year, received a mobile phone call from Mittal while on his way into central Paris yesterday. ``He just said: `We got it, we got it' about 20 times.''

Arcelor must now halt a deal with Russian steelmaker OAO Severstal that was intended to block Mittal and drew protests from investors by giving a controlling stake to billionaire Alexei Mordashov. The union of Mittal and Arcelor will create a company that controls 10 percent of world steel production, three times more than its closest rival, and may prompt a new round of acquisitions across the industry.

Mittal is offering 13 of its shares and 150.60 euros in cash for 12 Arcelor shares, a 49 percent increase on its original offer, Arcelor said.

Belgium's Walloon region government, which holds 2.4 percent of Arcelor, will tender its Arcelor shares to the new company, Belgian newswire Belga cited regional Economy Minister Jean-Claude Marcourt as saying.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aeFZd.KZjcA0&refer=europe

July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Phelps Dodge Corp., which is seeking to buy Inco Ltd. and Falconbridge Ltd. in the biggest mining takeover ever, expects a decline in copper and nickel prices in the next two years that will erode earnings in 2008.

Price assumptions used in making the bid include a drop in copper to $1.75 a pound on average by 2008 from $2.85 this year and $2.25 next year, Phoenix-based Phelps Dodge said today in a government filing. Nickel may fall to $7.60 a pound next year and $6.20 in 2008 from $8.25 this year, it said. Zinc may be about $1.40 a pound this year and next, and $1.10 in 2008.

Phelps Dodge Chief Executive Officer Steven Whisler has said the company needs to acquire Inco and Falconbridge to become the largest producer of nickel and second-largest in copper after Chile's Codelco. Phelps Dodge spokesman Peter Faur was not available for comment.

``We are assuming significantly higher metal prices for both copper and nickel,'' Credit Suisse analyst David Gagliano said in a report today. ``Given Phelps Dodge management is in the midst of justifying a proposed transaction to shareholders, in our view having relatively more conservative estimates versus management targets is reasonable,'' he said.

Copper may average $3.25 next year and $2.30 in 2008, Gagliano said. Nickel may average $8.25 and $7 during the same period, he said.

Forecast From Chile

Chile, the world's biggest supplier of copper, will export the metal at an average price of $2.80 to $3 a pound this year, according to the National Mining Society, a Santiago-based group representing the nation's largest mining companies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aF4E6bW5F4LA&refer=canada

PITTSBURGH (AP) -- Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. on Monday said second-quarter profit ballooned 62 percent as higher aluminum prices and strong demand from the aerospace and construction industries boosted results.

Net income surged to $744 million, or 85 cents per share, from $460 million, or 52 cents per share, a year ago. The recent results include charges of $35 million, or 4 cents per share, related to the ratification of a U.S. labor contract and the costs of preparing for a potential work stoppage during the quarter.

Revenue rose 19 percent to $7.96 billion from $6.69 billion due to higher aluminum prices and strong demand from aerospace, building and construction, commercial vehicle and can sheet markets.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast earnings of 86 cents per share on slightly higher sales of $8.01 billion.

Alcoa shares slumped 4.4 percent to $31.95 in late trading after closing the regular session 14 cents lower at $33.41 on the New York Stock Exchange. Alcoa shares have gained about 13 percent so far this year.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060710/earns_alcoa.html?.v=5

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices in Shanghai and New York fell amid concerns that demand will slow in China and the U.S., the world's biggest users of the industrial metal.

China, which consumes about a fifth of the world's copper, imposed new lending limits to slow investment and growth on July 21. Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said July 20 that the U.S. economy is slowing.

``There are worries that the global economy is slowing, while in China, the concern is the government will impose more measures to cool the economy, which could restrain demand growth for copper,'' Cai Luoyi, metal analyst at China International Futures (Shanghai) Co., said by phone.

Copper for delivery in October fell as much as 3,200 yuan, or 5 percent, to 60,650 yuan ($7,595) a metric ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. That's the daily maximum allowable limit, which was raised from 4 percent after prices settled limit-down on July 21. The metal, which is used in pipes and wires, traded at 61,660 yuan at 10:48 a.m. local time.

Metal for delivery in September fell as much as 3.35 cents, or 1 percent, to $3.2895 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $3.295 a pound at 10:39 a.m. Singapore time.

China's economic growth, which reached the fastest pace in a decade in the second quarter, may slow as the government takes steps to clamp down on lending. The economy will grow 10.4 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last week, as growth in the second half dips from 11.3 percent in the second quarter, and 10.9 percent in the first half.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose to a two-week high on concern Chile's Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, will be shut by a strike next week, further eroding global supplies.

Workers voted July 28 to halt work on Aug. 7 at the mine run by BHP Billiton Ltd., said Pedro Marin, a spokesman for the Escondida Workers' Union No. 1. Prices have more than doubled in the past year as mine output failed to keep pace with demand for copper wire and pipe, especially in China and the U.S.

``Any shortfalls in production are generally met with substantial price increases given that we are in a tight supply/demand balance,'' said Mark Liinamaa, a metals analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York.

Copper for delivery in three months jumped $280, or 3.7 percent, to $7,950 a metric ton at 7 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Prices earlier reached $7,980, the highest since July 17. The metal climbed 9 percent last week and reached a record $8,800 a ton May 11.

Copper for September delivery gained 2.1 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $3.57 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date.

Prices probably will average $3 for the rest of this year and into 2007, Liinamaa said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a3cS.khDD4Fw&refer=news

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is being urged by companies including Marubeni Corp. to secure uranium mining rights when he visits Kazakhstan this month to beat China in the race for supply of the nuclear fuel.

Marubeni, Japan's fifth-biggest trading company, and Kansai Electric Power Co., the country's second-biggest power producer, are among the companies watching the outcome of Koizumi's meeting with Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev on Aug. 28. The two governments agreed in November to cooperate in developing uranium mines to supply Japan's nuclear power plants.

More than 50 percent of uranium worldwide is produced by four companies, including Canada's Cameco Corp. and Kazakhstan's state-owned Kazatomprom. Competition for uranium in Kazakhstan, the world's third-biggest supplier, is increasing as the country targets markets in China, South Korea and Japan.

``Kazakhstan and Japan will talk on possible co-development of various resources, such as uranium,'' said Tetsuo Ito, Japan's ambassador to Kazakhstan. ``There is room for Japan as Kazakhstan wants our expertise in the nuclear fuel business.''

Dissiyukov Almas, an official in the economic division at the Kazakhstan embassy in Tokyo, confirmed that uranium development will be discussed at the summit.

``We are very much interested in gaining uranium mining rights for our future business plans,'' said Marubeni spokesman Taigo Noguchi. ``We are keenly watching Koizumi's visit.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=apSjZ2cgNnTA&refer=asia

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise for a second straight week on speculation demand from jewelers and investors this month will recover, outpacing production from the world's mines.

Eighteen of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg from Sydney to Chicago on Aug. 31 and Sept. 1 advised buying gold, which rose 0.3 percent last week to $632.60 an ounce in New York. The survey results were the most bullish in seven weeks. Six respondents said to sell. Four were neutral.

Gold gained during every September since 2000 as jewelers stocked up on the metal for the winter holidays and speculators in New York and London returned from summer vacations. Mine output has barely budged in the past decade, forcing producers such as Goldcorp Inc. to acquire rivals to expand reserves.

``Our industry is not growing,'' Goldcorp Chief Executive Officer Ian Telfer said in an interview Aug. 31, after the Vancouver-based company agreed to buy Glamis Gold Ltd. for stock valued at $7.88 billion. ``New growth from mines is declining around the world, so you have production flat to down.''

Prices will climb by $200 an ounce to more than $830 in the next two years, and may reach $1,000, Telfer said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a7UXPZhkhGmA&refer=canada

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell in New York after a government report showed U.S. housing construction dropped to a three-year low last month, fueling speculation that demand for the metal will slow.

Housing starts in the U.S., the world's biggest economy, plunged 6 percent last month to an annual rate of 1.665 million, the Commerce Department said today, a steeper slide than economists estimated. The average home contains about 400 pounds of copper, which has plunged 16 percent from a record $4.04 a pound on May 11 on signs that economic expansion is slowing.

``We had a much weaker housing-market report in the U.S. than expected, and that's keeping copper under pressure,'' said Donald Selkin, director of equity research at Joseph Stevens & Co. in New York. ``There's the question of slowing copper demand.''

Copper futures for December delivery fell 3.9 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $3.3755 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, where prices have more than doubled in the past year. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or to sell a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=arVVNZfsYOP0&refer=commodities

(SINGAPORE) Hyundai Heavy Industries Co, the world's biggest shipyard, agreed to a two-stage rise in steel-plate prices from Japan that will increase the metal's cost by a total of 5.1 per cent, less than analysts had expected.

The Ulsan, South Korea-based company will pay US$600 a ton for plate in the final quarter of this year, compared with US$580 for the six months to September, Kim Juno, a company spokesman, said on Wednesday. The price will rise to US$610 a ton in the first quarter of 2007.

Hyundai Heavy normally sets the price benchmark for steel plate for shipyards in South Korea, which is home to seven of the world's 10 largest shipbuilders. Steel plate is used to make ships' hulls. Japanese steelmakers, led by Nippon Steel Corp, the world's second-largest steel producer, had sought an increase of as much as US$100 a ton, Mr Kim said on Sept 29. 'The market had expected a bigger increase' than was agreed to by Hyundai Heavy, said Kim Gyung Jung, a senior analyst with Samsung Securities Co in Seoul. 'The profitability of Korean shipyards will not suffer.'

http://business-times.asiaone.com/sub/shippingtimes/story/0,4574,210893,00.html?

(This reflects a weakness across much of the metals complex.)

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PITTSBURGH (AP) -- Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. on Tuesday said third-quarter profit skyrocketed 86 percent as demand from the aerospace and commercial transportation sectors continued to drive up results despite lower aluminum prices.

But its results were well below Wall Street expectations, and its shares fell in trading after the bell.

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Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to the highest in almost two weeks on rising demand for an investment haven after the United Nations Security Council voted unanimously to punish North Korea for a suspected test of a nuclear bomb.

Gold is up 2.5 percent since North Korea disclosed the test on Oct. 9. The Security Council adopted a resolution over the weekend demanding the country halt its tests. North Korea rejected the demand, and Ambassador Pak Gil Yon said further pressure would result in ``physical counter measures.''

The buildup of tensions with North Korea ``will likely be a supporting factor in the coming days and weeks'' for gold, ``particularly if the saber-rattling intensifies,'' James Moore, a Kettering, U.K.-based analyst with TheBullionDesk.com, said in an e-mailed note.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $4.60, or 0.8 percent, to $597.30 an ounce at 10:43 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, after reaching $598.70, the highest since Oct. 3. Prices are up 25 percent in the past year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=abFBbop7C1KI&refer=commodities

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices fell after supply concerns eased on signs that demand in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal, may slacken.

Consumption in China, fell 6.9 percent in the nine months ended September, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said today. Production exceeded demand by 228,000 metric tons, the bureau said. Copper prices in New York have fallen 22 percent from a record in May on speculation that slower economic growth will trim purchases for the metal used in pipes and wires.

``The demand just isn't there,'' said Warren Gelman, president of Kataman Metals Inc. in St. Louis. ``With the lack of any major business going on between now and the end of the year, I think this market has to come off.''

Copper futures for March delivery fell 1.15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $3.136 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the metal gained as much as 1.8 percent after stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange dropped. Prices still are up 70 percent in the past 12 months, partly because of production disruptions.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a0ukPpROmODI&refer=commodities

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Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose in New York, snapping a two-day decline, on signs of renewed demand from China and investment funds.

Users in China have increased imports of the metal following a drop in prices, some analysts said. Copper has dropped 23 percent from a record $4.04 a pound on May 11. Prices still are up 52 percent this year, partly because of production disruptions and demand from pension systems and mutual funds seeking returns unavailable in the stock and bond markets.

``The price is going to stay quite high,'' at least through the first half of 2007, because of Chinese and fund demand, said Patricia Mohr, an analyst at Scotiabank Group in Toronto.

Copper futures for March delivery rose 1 cent, or 0.3 percent, to $3.112 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices still dropped 1.9 percent this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aQlLbDAUC0vE&refer=commodities
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Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper tumbled to the lowest price since June as rising inventories signal demand is slowing, especially in the U.S., the world's second-largest user of the metal.

Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have jumped 52 percent in the past two months and doubled in the past year. Global inventories are now at the highest level in more than a year. Prices have dropped 25 percent since reaching a high in May on surplus speculation.

``The real story here is the rebuild in the London warehouses,'' said Stuart Flerlage, managing principal at NuWave Investment Corp. ``As there's more and more copper available, prices are going to come off.''

Copper futures for March delivery dropped 4.1 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $3.0165 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell as low as $2.978, the lowest since June 20. Futures dropped 3.1 percent this week and have fallen 5.6 percent this month after declining 4.5 percent in November.

Inventory tracked by the LME today gained 1,125 metric tons, or 0.6 percent, to 174,100 tons, the highest since April 2004. Global stockpiles in London, New York and Shanghai have climbed to 230,561 tons, the highest since July 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Production Exceeds Demand

Production exceeded demand by 306,000 tons in the 10 months through October, the Ware, England-based World Bureau of Metal Statistics said this week.

Metals traders said a government report today showing U.S. consumer prices were flat in November signals inflation is in check as demand for some products declines.

The report was ``part of an overall trend toward a slowing economy,'' said Ron Goodis, retail trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. ``As the economy slows and demand falls, copper will keep heading down.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aQCxRv.Ly8qc&refer=commodities

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Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Steel exports from China, supplier of one-third of the world's steel, may slump 23 percent next year after the government cut tax incentives, according a forecast from the China Iron and Steel Association.

Overseas sales may drop to 40.1 million tons in 2007 from 52.1 million tons, Luo Bingsheng, association vice chairman, said in slides prepared for a conference in Beijing today. Growth in steel output would slow to 10 percent in 2007, about half of this year's rate, he said.

China, which makes more steel than the U.S., Russia and Japan combined, has since 2004 tightened bank loans and shut mills to rein in capacity growth. Still, a doubling of steel- product exports in the first 11 months of this year has stoked concern in nations including the U.S. that China is unfairly aiding producers with subsidies, tax regimes and a weak currency.

The tax changes would cut Beijing Shougang Co.'s overseas sales by 25 percent to 1.5 million tons next year, Liu Shuiyang, vice president at the nation's second-largest maker of steel for construction, said in an interview at the conference. ``The tax changes will affect 100 million yuan ($12.8 million) of our profit,'' Liu added.

Lower steel exports may help to ease China's growing trade surplus, a source of increasing friction with some U.S. officials. China's trade surplus reached $157 billion this year through November. The nation sold a record $24.4 billion more goods to the U.S. than it imported from the country in October.

Some analysts including Zhou Xizeng disputed Luo's forecast, saying China's steel exports will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate. Overseas sales will rise as much as 20 percent in 2007, said Zhou, a senior analyst at CITIC Securities Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aFqsAKPpDK78&refer=china
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Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell to an eight-month low in London after the U.S., the world's second-largest user of the metal, said its economy grew slower than projected in the third quarter.

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange declined $130, or 2 percent, to $6,400 a ton as of 2:01 p.m. local time. That's the lowest intraday price since April 21.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=axDO1tTxNPOs&refer=commodities
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Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices fell for a second straight day in New York, continuing a December decline that dropped the metal's increase for 2006 to almost 41 percent.

Futures plunged 10 percent this month as inventories of the metal used in wires and pipe grew, a sign of weakening demand. Stockpiles at warehouses monitored by commodity exchanges in London, Shanghai and New York have expanded 60 percent this year to 245,015 tons, the highest since June 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``Plants that we are dealing with are either not using copper at all or using less of it,'' said Mark Lewon, vice president for operations at Utah Metal Works Inc., by phone from Salt Lake City. ``Home builders are the biggest users of copper here and they are using less copper,'' he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a069EtvDRkDA&refer=latin_america
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Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Nucor Corp. agreed to acquire Harris Steel Group Inc., a Canadian metals producer controlled by the family of founder Milton Harris, in a transaction valued at about $1.07 billion.

Harris Steel investors will receive C$46.25 ($39.76) for each share, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor said today in a statement. The transaction was approved by the Harris family, which holds more than half of Harris Steel shares, Nucor said.

Shares of North York, Ontario-based Harris Steel have risen 14 percent since the company disclosed Dec. 7 that it was negotiating with a possible buyer. Steelmakers have been merging to increase their influence over customers and suppliers and to become more profitable as demand rises, especially from Asia.

Chief Executive Officer Daniel DiMicco, 56, has been investing in expanded production and boosting cash payments to investors in the form of special dividends. The company, active in 17 states, plans three new plants, including one in Memphis, Tennessee, capable of producing 850,000 tons of carbon and alloy sheets a year for the car and heavy equipment markets.

Nucor, in the statement, said the Harris Steel transaction would immediately boost earnings and won't affect the company's current supplemental dividend practice.

Shares of Harris Steel fell 30 cents, or 0.7 percent, to C$43.49 on Dec. 29 in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. Nucor fell 62 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $54.66 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, giving the company a market value of $16.5 billion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auaK9P6WFe_c&refer=worldwide
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Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Chile's trade surplus fell to its lowest in 10 months in December when slowing demand for copper, the country's top export, caused prices for the metal to drop.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aam2UWiK9Bzw&refer=latin_america

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Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Franco Tito has fought small-scale gold diggers like himself for 20 years to keep control of a 100- meter mountain tunnel in the southern Philippines. Now he's girding for battle against the world's biggest mining companies.

``You can't expect miners like us to give up to overseas investors our only source of livelihood,'' said Tito, 49, the chief of Diwalwal, a gold-rush village of 40,000 people on Mindanao island. ``Miners may again take up arms.''

The government struck down claims on public land at Diwalwal in 2002 after more than 80 prospectors died in tit-for-tat killings and cave-ins. It allowed them to keep tunneling in return for a share of the income in fields estimated to be worth $1 billion. Now officials are trying to lure companies such as Newmont Mining Corp. and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. to bid for a $70 million development contract to be awarded this year.

The country needs to win overseas investment before metal prices decline further, said Horacio Ramos, director of the state-run Mines and Geosciences Bureau in Manila.

At stake is President Gloria Arroyo's plan to attract $6.5 billion to develop 24 Philippine sites, where copper, gold, nickel and other deposits may total $500 billion.

``We may have one of the biggest mineral deposits in the world, but if we take too long to develop them, they could be worth nothing,'' Ramos said. The world price of gold has fallen 13 percent to $637 an ounce from its May 12 high.

Gold on an 8,100-hectare (20,000-acre) site in the Diwata mountain range, also known as Diwalwal, may be worth more than $1 billion. Geologists haven't yet explored the lower part of the 900-metre (2,950-foot) range, said Antonio Apostol, chief geologist at the mines bureau.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a5r201JAo4V0&refer=exclusive

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PITTSBURGH (AP) -- Alcoa Inc. is being targeted by two foreign mining giants who are each preparing $40 billion takeover bids for the aluminum producer, a British newspaper reported. Alcoa shares rose nearly 6 percent Tuesday although some analysts questioned whether such a deal was likely.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, and Rio Tinto PLC, the world's second largest iron ore producer, both based in Melbourne, Australia, are said to be considering offers, the Times of London reported in Tuesday's editions, citing unnamed sources.

Alcoa shares rose $2.10, or 6.38 percent, to close at $35 Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange after rising as high as $36.05 earlier in the session.

Officials with the mining companies declined to comment on the report Tuesday, as did Alcoa spokesman Kevin Lowery.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070213/alcoa.html?.v=10

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Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum may fall 11 percent in 2007 as global demand slows and output gains in China, said Minmetals StarFutures Co., a unit of the nation's largest metals trader.

Aluminum futures in London may average $2,300 a metric ton this year, from $2,595 in 2006, StarFutures' Pang Ying said from Shanghai in a telephone interview Feb. 14. The market may have a surplus of a much as 300,000 tons, she said.

Prices of the lightweight metal, used to make beverage cans and aircraft, have fallen 15 percent from at least a 19-year high in May as production growth outpaced demand. China, the world's biggest producer of aluminum, is forecasting domestic output may rise 14 percent this year.

``The fundamentals for aluminum are bearish because production is rising more than demand can keep up with,'' said Pang, 27, who has followed the aluminum industry for four years as a futures trader and an analyst.

Aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell $13, or 0.5 percent, to close at $2,815 a metric ton on Feb. 15. It's gained 4.3 percent this week on speculation unrest in Guinea, the west African country that has a third of the world's bauxite, aluminum's key raw material, will disrupt supply.

``We expect the supply disruptions in Guinea won't last long and won't change the fundamentals for the metal,'' said Du Xiaohua, a trading manager at China International Futures (Shanghai) Co. in a phone interview Feb. 15.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=an2BYkN9MkY0&refer=china

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Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gold surged to a nine-month high in New York after the U.S. said inflation accelerated more than forecast in January and commodity prices jumped.

The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent last month, more than the 0.1 percent economists estimated, boosting the appeal of gold as a hedge. Crude oil jumped above $60 a barrel and corn reached a 10-year high, helping to send the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index to the highest level this year.

``Commodities are up across the board,'' said Ron Goodis, director of Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. ``There's still inflation. People want to own assets and they run for gold.''

Gold futures for April delivery rose $23, or 3.5 percent, to $684 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier reaching $686.40, the highest for a most-active contract since May 19. Gold has climbed 23 percent in the past year.

The Goldman Sachs index of 24 commodities rose 2.1 percent to 440.70, after reaching 441.76, the highest since Dec. 26.

Gold's gain accelerated after the New York Mercantile Exchange said the number of open futures and options contracts was higher than some traders expected.

``Once the open-interest report came out, there was a big incentive to buy,'' said Michael Guido, director of hedge-fund marketing at Societe Generale SA in New York. ``There are no new shorts coming into the market.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&refer=commodity_futures&sid=aRw.yu9e2hYQ

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Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world's third- largest mining company, may invest $2 billion, double an earlier estimate, developing its first nickel project in Indonesia to meet rising demand driven by steelmakers in China.

``We're still negotiating with senior levels of government in Indonesia,'' said Ian Head, a Melbourne-based spokesman for Rio. ``When it's concluded, Rio can then start a feasibility study and the costs of the project would be up to $2 billion.''

Nickel producers are developing projects in Asia as prices surged to a record this month on concern shrinking supplies won't match demand. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, may invest as much as $1.5 billion on a nickel project in the Philippines, a government official said today.

``BHP and Rio have said they're willing to go to riskier countries to tap resources there, and the nickel prices may be quite good for a while,'' said Peter Chilton, who helps manage the equivalent of $800 million at Constellation Capital Management in Sydney. ``Both Indonesia and the Philippines are certainly prospective in resources. Rio definitely wants to be in nickel.''

Shares of London-based Rio rose 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to A$77.60 on the Australian Stock Exchange at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close. Shares of Melbourne-based BHP rose 16 cents, or 0.6 percent, to A$28.94.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aeNb8Y2FHtBo&refer=asia

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February 23 – Bloomberg (Brett Foley): “Copper rose in London, heading for a third weekly gain and the largest since July, on speculation demand from China will increase when buying resumes after a weeklong holiday. Lead and nickel advanced to records… Copper has risen 8.7 percent this week, moving above $6,000 a metric ton for the first time since Jan. 2 and erasing the losses so far in 2007. ‘Everyone is massively short of copper at the moment, funds and consumers alike,’ David Thurtell…analyst at BNP Paribas…”

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

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March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in New York fell, erasing this year's gains, as investors sold the metal to cover losses in global equity markets. Silver also declined.

Gold is little changed this year after gaining as much as 8.5 percent. Prices fell 6.2 percent last week after a global sell-off of equities wiped out $1.8 trillion in world market value. Investors who own gold in StreetTracks Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund, sold about $617 million last week.

``You've got some wealth deterioration in the stock market,'' said Frank McGhee, head metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. ``Gold is a store of value and it's convertible. People who need cash raise it through gold.''

Gold futures for April delivery fell $4.90 or 0.8 percent, to $639.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier declined to $635.10, dropping for the fifth session in a row, the longest slump since mid-September.

Silver for May delivery fell 21 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $12.76 an ounce. Prices have dropped 1.2 percent this year after climbing as much as 15 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a7j8e0u0jUxw&refer=commodities

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March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Steel is beginning to collect rust in the stock market.

U.S. steel inventories are near a record high, and a glut in China, which makes 30 percent of the world's metal, may cause prices to fall by the second half, according to UBS AG, Europe's largest bank, which cut its forecasts last month. Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group says the risks of a drop are mounting.

``There are signs we are approaching a peak,'' said Michael Shillaker, a Credit Suisse analyst who has ``underperform'' ratings on shares of ThyssenKrupp AG, the biggest steelmaker in Germany, and Spain's Acerinox SA. ``The cycle has overheated,'' Shillaker said in an interview from London.

The Bloomberg World Iron and Steel Index has gained 55 percent since June 2006 as demand for bridges and skyscrapers in China, the fastest-growing major economy, buoyed metals prices. The last similar rally, a 63 percent jump in the 10 months ended March 2005, led to a 20 percent decline in the index during the next four months.

Shares of the world's 62 largest steelmakers are trading at 11 times estimated earnings, 32 percent more than the average during the past two years. Steel stocks have advanced a record 590 percent in the past four years. European hot-rolled coil steel prices have jumped to $520 a metric ton, the same level reached before they entered a seven-month tailspin.

``We're definitely bearish on the outlook for steel stocks,'' said Atul Lele, who helps manage $350 million at White Funds Management in Sydney. He cited ``the rise in U.S. steel stockpiles, as well as rising inventories globally, in the face of falling or peaking global steel demand.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a3i9qi9r_oKE&refer=exclusive

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March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Tin fell to a three-week low in London as investors judged gains linked to the disruption of supply in Indonesia, the world's second-largest producer of the metal, were exaggerated. Copper and nickel gained.

Indonesia's tin output will fall 39 percent to 90,000 metric tons this year after the government put curbs on illegal miners, industry organization ITRI Ltd. said earlier this month.

Tin has risen in London this month to its highest since at least 1989 and investors have ``taken advantage'' of this rally to cut their holdings, said Peter Kettle, manager for statistics and market studies at St Albans, England-based ITRI.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ayb61O8CmSNE&refer=commodities

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