It's anybody's guess when these things will make a lunar landing.

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

DIBRUGAR, India (AP) -- He's a genteel man, with a sprawling plantation house, courtly manners and an estate of carefully trimmed tea bushes that stretches across the gentle hills of Assam, blanketing the land as far as you can see.

But the business of tea? It's best not to ask.

Manoj Jalan, a fifth-generation planter with a 5,000-acre estate, summed up his situation simply: "This is a rough business."

"I was born here, in this building," Jalan said, standing in front of a colonial-era house. "Tea is a way of life for us."

India has long been famous for its tea, and the $1.5 billion industry launched by British colonials nearly two centuries ago is, after China's, the world's second largest. More than 1 million tons were grown in 2007, much of it here in the northeastern state of Assam.

But production costs are mounting and a brutal insurgency has targeted the planters. Globalization, with the spread of cheaper tea from countries such as Vietnam and Kenya, has increased competition. While there have been glimmers of good news recently -- a $320 million revitalization package announced by the government, and an uptick in prices from historic lows -- the business is still at the bottom rungs of profitability.

Things have changed since earlier generations of planters cleared the forests, planted the tea and built an enormously profitable industry.

"I must confess," Jalan said. "They did a better job in their time than we've been able to do in our time."

Planters like Jalan, whose families piloted the industry after independence from Britain 60 years ago, have been forced into a brutally competitive marketplace.

On one side are corporations that maximize profits through enormous scale, with dozens of estates and tens of thousands of workers. On the other side are the growing number of micro-producers, many with just a couple acres of land, that are increasingly powerful in the market. All are competing in a market where prices have fallen 30 percent in just a decade.

Then there's the United Liberation Front of Asom, whose revolt has killed some 3,000 people over two decades, and helped turn the region into a backwater of unemployment. Planters have been prime targets -- more than a dozen killed and at least 20 more kidnapped. Extortion payoffs, farmers say privately, are common.

Today, many prominent planters don't leave home without jeeploads of heavily armed bodyguards. Guardposts ring their clubs.

Back in the good times, the wealthiest planters jetted to Europe to shop, and bought homes in Calcutta and New Delhi.

Those days are over. Today, Jalan, like many old tea-making families, has turned part of his estate into a guesthouse, hoping wealthy Western tourists can bring more profits...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070929/india_troubled_tea.html?.v=1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assam

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Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Soybean futures in China, the world's biggest consumer of the commodity, surged to a record as traders speculated vegetable oil demand may outstrip supplies resulting from government efforts to control food prices.

The price of soybean oil, produced by crushing soybeans, also rose to a record on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, China's main agricultural bourse. The government has tried to lower vegetable oil prices by selling from state reserves and allowing soybean imports at reduced tariffs until the end of March.

``The measures did not completely remove import tariffs, and there were no changes for soybean oil,'' analyst Liu Peng of Longma Consulting Co. said by phone from Harbin. ``Traditionally, vegetable oil demand around this time of year is strongest.''

Soybean futures in Dalian rose as much as 159 yuan, or 3.5 percent, to 4,666 yuan ($636) a metric ton, the highest since trading began in March 2002. The contract for September delivery gained 117 yuan, or 2.6 percent, to close at 4,624 yuan.

Soybean oil advanced as much as 284 yuan, or 2.9 percent, to a record 10,230 yuan a ton. The contract for May delivery gained 200 yuan, or 2 percent, to close at 10,146 yuan.

Spot prices for vegetable oil in China rose for a third week to records yesterday. China extended a reduction in soybean import tariffs to 1 percent from 3 percent until the end of March, state media reported Dec. 24, citing the finance minister.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=avFOF1QB8QQg&refer=commodities

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aDzcxdqmSNUM&refer=commodities

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aMKgdv7M4MdY&refer=commodities

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aJCVGr4ZWHd0&refer=commodities

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&refer=commodities&sid=a3VgxgEXmN1w

we may finally be seeing a break in the CRB index; we're due for one.

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen. The credit crunch and the reverberations of soaring oil prices around the world will pale in comparison to what is about to transpire, Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO Financial Group said at the Empire Club's 14th annual investment outlook in Toronto on Thursday.

"It's not a matter of if, but when," he warned investors. "It's going to hit this year hard."

Mr. Coxe said the sharp rise in raw food prices in the past year will intensify in the next few years amid increased demand for meat and dairy products from the growing middle classes of countries such as China and India as well as heavy demand from the biofuels industry.

"The greatest challenge to the world is not US$100 oil; it's getting enough food so that the new middle class can eat the way our middle class does, and that means we've got to expand food output dramatically," he said.

The impact of tighter food supply is already evident in raw food prices, which have risen 22% in the past year.

Mr. Coxe said in an interview that this surge would begin to show in the prices of consumer foods in the next six months. Consumers already paid 6.5% more for food in the past year.

Wheat prices alone have risen 92% in the past year, and yesterday closed at US$9.45 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

At the centre of the imminent food catastrophe is corn - the main staple of the ethanol industry. The price of corn has risen about 44% over the past 15 months, closing at US$4.66 a bushel on the CBOT yesterday - its best finish since June 1996.

This not only impacts the price of food products made using grains, but also the price of meat, with feed prices for livestock also increasing.

"You're going to have real problems in countries that are food short, because we're already getting embargoes on food exports from countries, who were trying desperately to sell their stuff before, but now they're embargoing exports," he said, citing Russia and India as examples.

"Those who have food are going to have a big edge."

With 54% of the world's corn supply grown in America's mid-west, the U.S. is one of those countries with an edge.

But Mr. Coxe warned U.S. corn exports were in danger of seizing up in about three years if the country continues to subsidize ethanol production. Biofuels are expected to eat up about a third of America's grain harvest in 2007.

The amount of U.S. grain currently stored for following seasons was the lowest on record, relative to consumption, he said.

"You should be there for it fully-hedged by having access to those stocks that benefit from rising food prices."

He said there are about two dozen stocks in the world that are going to redefine the world's food supplies, and "those stocks will have a precious value as we move forward."

Mr. Coxe said crop yields around the world need to increase to something close to what is achieved in the state of Illinois, which produces over 200 corn bushes an acre compared with an average 30 bushes an acre in the rest of the world.

"That will be done with more fertilizer, with genetically modified seeds, and with advanced machinery and technology," he said.
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=213343

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose for the first time in three sessions, extending a 34-year high on speculation investors will boost holdings of commodities as a hedge against inflation.

Crude oil rose more than 2 percent on forecasts that a government report tomorrow will show U.S. inventories fell for an eighth week, boosting demand for biofuels made from crops. Gold rose to a record as rising energy prices and a weak dollar increased demand for commodities as a store of value and a hedge against inflation.

``Crude oil is rising and gold is at a record and that buying will spill over into soybeans'' said Jim Riley, a market analyst and broker for the Linn Group in Chicago.

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 24 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $12.7375 a bushel at 12:14 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price earlier reached $12.785, the highest for the most-active contract since it touched a record $12.90 in June 1973. Futures gained 78 percent last year after U.S. farmers planted the smallest acreage in 12 years to sow more corn.

Soybeans for July delivery touched $13.06 a bushel, exceeding the prior record of $13.01 for any contract, which was set Jan. 4.

Soybean oil for March delivery rose 0.63 cent, or 1.2 percent, to 51.38 cents a pound after earlier gaining to a record 51.64 cents.

Indexes Gain

The 19 commodity indexes tracked by Bloomberg showed gains of 16 percent to 41 percent last year, increasing the allure of commodities as an investment class, analysts said.

Wheat and soybeans were two of the three best-performers on the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 commodities last year, spurred by growing demand for food, feed and biofuels. The index rose 22 percent last year compared with a 3.5 percent gain by the S&P 500 Stock Index.

``Investor momentum for commodities is not slowing,'' said Terry Jones, who farms more than 6,000 acres near Williamsburg, Iowa, and is vice president of Russell Consulting Group in Panora, Iowa. ``As long as the financial community is pushing commodities, the trend is higher.''

Prices also rose after Goldman Sachs reiterated its prediction that soybeans would rise to $14.50 a bushel this year because of rising demand for animal feed and to make alternative fuels.

Agricultural commodity prices will advance for at least three more years, bolstered by demand that's expanding faster than supply, said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

``We're already in the longest sustained agricultural rally since the early 1970s,'' Currie said yesterday in a telephone interview from London. ``You have a robust demand story that is likely to remain strong even under economic duress.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=azB18Q_e8InQ&refer=commodities

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Workers at Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Bourse, the agency that registers cocoa beans for export, may resume a strike on Jan. 17 to demand the dismissal of its managing director, a spokesman for the workers said.

Warehouse laborers in Abidjan temporarily suspended a five- day strike on Jan. 3 that stopped bean exports from the world's largest cocoa producer. The workers have staged two walkouts since December, demanding higher bonuses, loans to pay school fees and the dismissal of Managing Director Tanoh Kassi.

``We are hopeful that the bonuses we have called for will be paid, but we are not yet satisfied concerning the dismissal of the managing director,'' Alexis Nezzi, chairman of the workers' so-called crisis committee, said in a telephone interview from the commercial capital, Abidjan, today. ``We have decided to wait until Wednesday evening to see whether we will resume the strike.''

The possible resumption of the strike in a country that accounts for about two-fifths of global cocoa output has supported prices. Cocoa rose 5.5 percent last week, its biggest gain in five weeks. It climbed 17 percent last year, compared with a 22 percent advance for the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 commodities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=au_KLv8m9meA&refer=africa

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat futures in Chicago extended gains after a government report showed an increase in export sales of the U.S. crop. Corn and soybeans fell on speculation a slowing U.S. economy will curb commodity demand.

U.S. exporters sold 404,800 metric tons of wheat in the week ended Jan. 10, more than double the previous week, the Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Pakistan and Jordan are seeking to buy wheat this month after Egypt, Japan and South Korea bought the grain, including U.S. supplies.

``The wheat market has been driven by strong demand,'' Kenji Kobayashi, an analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, said by phone today.

Wheat for March delivery rose as much as 9.5 cents, or 1 percent, to $9.50 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and stood at $9.44 at 10:45 a.m. Singapore time.

Wheat futures, which reached a record $10.095 a bushel on Dec. 17, have doubled in the past year partly because drought damaged plants in Australia and an April freeze followed by heavy rains hurt the U.S. crop.

Corn fell for a fourth day and soybeans declined for a second day on speculation a slump in the U.S. economy will trigger a decline in global demand for fuel, food and animal feed made from crops.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aB.XMQVRzuhY&refer=commodities

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- African tea prices jumped 10 percent at the world's largest auction in Kenya this week, their biggest gain in almost two years, because of disruptions caused by violence after disputed national elections.

Fighting after the election results were announced Dec. 30 has killed more than 600 people, caused workers to flee tea plantations, disrupted the transport of leaves to the auctions in the coastal town of Mombasa and delayed the first sale of the year. Dry weather has also bolstered prices.

The average price rose to $2.11 a kilogram (2.2 pounds) at the sale on Jan. 14, from $1.92 at a sale last week, Mombasa- based Africa Tea Brokers Ltd., the operator of the weekly auction, said in an e-mailed statement today. Kenya is the world's largest exporter of black tea.

``The present market is being driven by recent events in Kenya and the need for buyers to get tea on the water after the extended auction gap,'' Van Rees BV, a Dutch tea trading company, said in a market report on its Web site today. ``The short-term dynamic has been upset.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&refer=africa&sid=a2hek1rmI3hk

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Corn fell for the fourth straight session and soybeans headed for the first weekly decline since November on speculation this month's record high prices will reduce global demand.

U.S. farmers, the world's biggest growers of both crops, have increased sales this week to profit from rallies that sent corn prices up as much as 39 percent the past three months and soybeans up 31 percent, said Marty Foreman, a grain analyst for Doane Agricultural Services Co. in St. Louis.

``Maybe the markets will take a break and wait to see how demand is holding up at these historical prices,'' Foreman said in interview. ``It's too soon to say we have reached a top, but people are going to reduce positions.''

Corn futures for March delivery fell 5.75 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $4.9625 a bushel at 12:13 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. A close at that price would mark the first four-session losing streak for most-active futures since Sept. 28 through Oct. 8. Corn rose to a record $5.1925 on Jan. 15 as increased demand to produce ethanol and feed livestock eroded global inventories.

Soybean futures for March delivery fell 23.25 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $12.4775 a bushel in Chicago. A close at that price would cap the first weekly drop in seven weeks. The price on Jan. 14 reached a record $13.415. Futures gained 78 percent last year after U.S. farmers planted the fewest acres in 12 years to sow more corn.

Recession Concerns

Corn and soybeans also fell on concern that the U.S. economy may be sliding into a recession that could trigger a decline in global demand for fuel, food and animal feed made from the two biggest crops.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aih4Eq7rhnvA&refer=commodities

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Soybean futures in China, the world's biggest buyer of the oilseed, fell to the lowest in almost a month on concerns a rout in stock markets and a faltering global economy may reduce investments in commodities.

Asian stocks tumbled, extending a slump that has wiped more than $5 trillion from equity markets around the world this year, on concern economic growth is slowing. Crude oil fell to a five- week low in New York, reducing the appeal of corn and vegetable oils, including soybean oil, for producing alternative fuels.

``Financial markets are going through painful adjustments, no single sector can be spared,'' said Wang Lin, analyst at Cofco Ltd. in Beijing. ``Supplies on the soybean complex remain tight, but much depends on how funds lay out their strategies.''

Soybeans for September 2008 delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell as much as 137 yuan, or 2.9 percent, to 4,568 yuan ($631) a metric ton, the lowest since Dec. 26. It traded at 4,593 yuan at 11:10 a.m. Beijing time.

Soybean oil for May delivery, which peaked on Jan. 17 at 11,202 yuan a ton, fell as much as 386 yuan, or 3.6 percent, to 10,480 yuan, the lowest since Jan. 10. The contract traded at 10,620 yuan at 11:11 a.m. in Beijing.

Corn for September 2008 delivery in Dalian lost as much as 47 yuan, or 2.7 percent, to 1,709 yuan a ton, and traded at 1,732 yuan at the same time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&refer=commodities&sid=a.ouppOR0kT8

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Corn and soybeans plunged, extending their declines from record highs last week, on speculation that a slowing U.S. economy will reduce demand for crops used to make fuel, food and animal feed.

``The recession threat is growing each day and people are beginning to expect slower global food demand,'' said Gregg Hunt, a market analyst and broker for Fox Investments, a division of MF Global in Chicago. ``It's too late for U.S. rate cuts to prevent a recession.''

The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials dropped as much as 2.1 percent, falling to a four- week low. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates yesterday in a bid to prevent a recession, U.S. stocks fell today for a sixth straight session on concern consumers are spending less as the economy slows.

Corn futures for March delivery fell 19.75 cents, or 4 percent, to $4.6925 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after dropping the 20-cent maximum allowed by the exchange to a two-week low of $4.69. The price reached a record $5.1925 on Jan. 15. Corn rose 17 percent last year after rising 81 percent in 2006 on record demand for the grain, which is used to make ethanol and feed livestock.

Soybean futures for March delivery fell the exchange's 50- cent limit, or 4 percent, to $11.895 a bushel, the lowest since Dec. 28. The price reached a record $13.415 on Jan. 14. Most- active futures gained 78 percent last year, after U.S. farmers planted the fewest acres in 12 years to sow the most corn since 1944.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=avUpyQtpNQOQ&refer=commodities

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Coal prices jumped to a record at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, surging past $100 a metric ton for the first time as snowstorms in China, power cuts in South Africa and floods in Queensland cut output.

Power-station coal prices at the New South Wales port soared $23.09, or 25 percent, to $116.44 a metric ton in the week ended Feb. 1, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index. The price rose 73 percent in 2007. It was the second straight week of record prices. European prices rose to a record Feb. 1, according to ICAP Plc prices.

China, with coal deliveries disrupted by snowstorms, will halt exports this month and in March, while Anglo American Plc closed mines last month on power shortages. In Australia, the world's biggest coal exporter, BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance is among four miners that declared force majeure on deliveries after heavier-than-usual rain flooded mines and roads.

``Spot prices over the coming months will continue to rise, notwithstanding the direction of oil prices,'' Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a Jan. 31 report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6yR1gJQYgQc&refer=home

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

It was a huge week for commodities. Gold jumped 1.9% to $923 and Silver 2.1% to $17.33. March Copper surged 7.5%. March Crude jumped $2.78 to $91.74. March Gasoline rose 3.1%, and March Natural Gas jumped 6.8%. March Wheat surged 16% to a record high. The CRB index gained 3.1% to a new all-time record high (up 4.7% y-t-d). The Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) jumped 4.1% (up 1.6% y-t-d and 42% y-o-y).
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/CreditBubbleBulletinHome

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Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Inflation in the Middle East may be stoked by recent snowstorms in China that damaged wheat crops, said Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

The Middle East is the world's largest importer of wheat, so any increase in the price of the commodity will fuel food prices, Ben Simpfendorfer said in an e-mailed research note today.

Inflation accelerated to records across the region in the past 12 months as rapid economic growth boosted demand for goods and services, while the weaker dollar made European imports dearer. Wheat prices more than doubled in the past year, reaching a record this month as supply failed to keep pace with demand.

``Wheat prices are already a serious problem for the Middle East, while recent snowstorms in China may aggravate the problem,'' Simpfendorfer said in the note. ``This risk underscores our view that the Middle East economies will continue to face serious inflation risks, so the case for adopting basket pegs or permitting faster appreciation is strong.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aPnuDSTi115o&refer=africa

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil, the world's second-largest soybean producer, will harvest more than expected this year as farmers limited crop diseases and used gene-modified seeds to grow stronger plants, a forecaster said after a field tour.

``I've never seen yields like that,'' Andre Pessoa, head of Agroconsult, said yesterday after a five-day tour in Brazil's Center-West region, which produces more than half the country's output. ``Just by looking at the crops you can tell productivity is a lot higher than we had expected.''

Brazil will produce more than 50 bags of soybeans per hectare on average, or 45 bushels an acre, up from Agroconsult's January estimate of about 47 bags, Pessoa said. One bag weighs 60 kilograms (132 pounds). Soybean prices jumped 84 percent in the past year to a record today.

The yield gain forecast by Agroconsult would mean a 10 percent increase in total output from last year's record to 64.5 million metric tons, based on the group's estimate of 21.5 million planted hectares. Florianopolis, Brazil-based Agroconsult in January forecast record output of 60.9 million tons this year.

Agroconsult last year correctly predicted soybean output within 100,000 tons as early as March, five month's before the Agriculture Ministry released its final estimate. The forecaster has consistently provided the most-accurate estimates months before the government over the past few years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&refer=latin_america&sid=ahBIbvowetR4

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Ltd. is seeking to raise the price of coal delivered to Japanese utilities under 2008 contracts by as much as 143 percent, Reuters reported, citing people in the industry it didn't identify.

Rio executives met clients in Tokyo last week and offered coal to buyers including Chubu Electric Power Co. for about $135 a metric ton compared with $55.65 last year, Reuters reported.

Japanese buyers ``may be giving up hopes'' of buying coal at less than $100 a ton, Reuters said, citing an unidentified person in Japan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=a_PHjl4.4kbM&refer=energy

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Hua Lien International (Holding) Co., a Chinese leather-maker, agreed to buy three African sugar growers for HK$1.28 billion ($164 million) because of surging demand for the commodity.

The company will buy plantations and sugar-processing plants in Madagascar, Sierra Leone and Benin from Complant International Sugar Industry Co., it said in a Hong Kong stock exchange statement today.

China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, has boosted investments in Africa to ensure supplies of foodstuffs, metals and other raw materials. The country, the world's third- biggest sugar producer, may also import more of the commodity this year after the worst snowstorms in at least half a century destroyed crops.

Complant International will guarantee that the profits from the three growers will total at least HK$216 million this year and next, Hua Lien said. The vendor will compensate Hua Lien if the profit falls below this mark, it added.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aF8bdvua8mJs&refer=china

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The California Public Employees' Retirement System, the largest U.S. pension fund, may increase its commodities investments 16-fold to $7.2 billion through 2010 as raw materials prices surge to records.

Calpers, which has about $240 billion in assets, agreed at a Feb. 19 board meeting to hold between 0.5 percent and 3 percent of its assets in commodities, spokesman Clark McKinley said. The Sacramento, California-based fund last year put $450 million into commodities, its first such investment.

Pension funds, hedge funds and other money managers are increasing investments in raw materials as energy, metals and agriculture assets outperform stocks and bonds. Oil has risen above $100 a barrel, wheat breached $13 a bushel for the first time, and gold and platinum climbed to the highest ever.

``We plan on ramping up the program by hiring additional staff,'' McKinley said by phone yesterday. ``We are excited about commodities, which have performed exceptionally well for us.''

The fund's commodity investments track the Standard & Poor's GSCI index of 24 commodities, which has returned 10 percent so far this year, adding to a 33 percent gain in 2007. In comparison, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks has fallen 6 percent this year, while U.S. Treasuries returned 2 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=aps_cctZFFP0&refer=munibonds

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Font Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Aaron Lucchetti and Carolyn Cui | March 01, 2008
IT took only seven hours early on Wednesday for a trader at MF Global to make bad bets on the direction of wheat prices that cascaded into $US141.5 million ($149 million) in losses at the brokerage firm and exposed another breakdown in Wall Street's risk management.

The announcement of the ill-fated trades was an embarrassment for the Bermuda-based futures and derivatives firm, which suffered a 28 per cent drop in its share price. It was the steepest decline since MF Global was spun off last year from hedge fund giant Man Group, and the blow-up raised questions about how one of the largest customers on several futures exchanges could have left itself so exposed to a single trader's bets.

MF Global identified the trader as Evan Dooley, who worked in the firm's Memphis office until he was fired for having "substantially exceeded his authorised trading limit".

In an interview, the 40-year-old Mr Dooley, who goes by his middle name, Brent, blamed the trading loss on the computer systems he was using. That system "failed on a lot of things", he said, including problems in "setting limits". He declined to be more specific.

MF Global insisted that the breakdowns resulting in the steep loss were isolated and have been fixed. But Kevin Davis, the brokerage's chief executive, acknowledged that existing internal controls could have stopped Mr Dooley's trades from being processed - but were turned off in certain cases to allow for speedier transactions by brokers at the firm who traded for themselves.

"This is an absolutely awful event but we believe it was an aberration in our risk controls and we have fixed it," Mr Davis said.

Mr Dooley, who has spent more than 15 years in the rough-and-tumble business of commodities trading, was betting that wheat prices would fall from their record levels, according to a person familiar with the situation. Wheat and other commodities have surged in recent weeks because of strong demand, tight supply and a cash infusion from investors.

MF Global's risk management procedures include "buying power controls" that are supposed to flag big or risky trades that might expose the firm to potential losses. But those internal controls had been turned off at the Memphis office and possibly other locations in order to speed up trades. The surge in commodities trading volume has created pressure on brokerage firms to keep up.

The Chicago Board of Trade handled Mr Dooley's orders. By Wednesday morning, though, wheat prices were moving sharply higher, meaning that Mr Dooley was suffering losses that far exceeded the balance in his own trading account. Since his account was depleted, MF Global was forced to step in and fund the trader's losing position. "It happened very quickly," Mr Davis said. Mr Dooley did not have the capital "to support even a fraction of his positions".

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23299089-36375,00.html

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat fell on speculation that U.S. growers in the southern part of the Great Plains will harvest more grain because fewer fields are being used to graze cattle.

Farmers in Oklahoma and Texas often allow cattle to graze their fields as wheat plants begin to emerge from winter dormancy in March and April. A doubling of wheat prices in the past year to a record may discourage grazing because of the potential damage to crops, said Darrell Holaday, president of Advanced Market Solutions in Manhattan, Kansas.

``The surprise is that harvested acres are going to be up,'' Holaday said. ``Graze-outs are practically non-existent this year.''

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 15.5 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $10.87 a bushel at 10:52 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price is up 23 percent this year, reaching a record $13.495 on Feb. 27, on speculation farmers wouldn't produce enough to meet global demand.

World inventories are expected to fall to 109.7 million metric tons by the end of the marketing year on May 31, the lowest since 1978, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Feb. 8. U.S. stockpiles may fall to 272 million bushels, or 7.4 million metric tons, by the end of May, the lowest in 60 years, the government said.

A large harvest this year may ease some supply concerns, analysts have said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&refer=commodity_futures&sid=a0S0ER.I5tW0

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities plunged the most in almost six weeks, as oil, gold and corn fell from record highs, on renewed concern that a slowing U.S. economy will curb demand for raw materials.

The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 futures contracts fell 25.2792, or 1.6 percent, to 1,512.032 at 1 p.m. in New York. A close at that price would be the biggest decline since Jan. 23, halting a rally that sent the index up 20 percent this year and to a record high on Feb. 29.

Demand for everything from gasoline to copper to food may slow as inflation accelerates, loan defaults rise and the U.S. housing market deteriorates, said William O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. ``Further declines in house prices are likely,'' Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said today.

``If the U.S. continues to slow, it's not going to bode well for the supply and demand picture of these commodities,'' O'Neill said. ``Every time Bernanke speaks, the negativity about the U.S. economy comes forward.''

Bernanke, in a speech to bankers in Orlando, Florida, urged lenders to forgive portions of mortgages held by homeowners at risk of defaulting. U.S. growth has been stifled, slowing to 0.6 percent in the fourth-quarter, as the subprime mortgage fallout triggered about $181 billion in writedowns and credit losses at the world's largest financial firms.
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March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Chicago wheat futures fell for the first time in four days as investors bet gains were overdone and on speculation record prices will boost planting. Rice jumped by the daily limit for a fourth day, reaching its highest ever.

Wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade rose by as much as the exchange-imposed maximum of 90 cents yesterday to trade above $13 a bushel for the first time since Feb. 27 when the price reached a record. The price gained 16 percent in the past three days, the biggest such gain in two weeks.

``Today's decline is just a technical correction,'' said Kenji Kobayashi, an analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``Fundamentals are still very strong for wheat,''

Wheat for May delivery fell as much as 21.75 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $12.6075 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading and stood at $12.69 at 4:13 p.m. Singapore time. The contract gained 4.9 percent yesterday. The daily limit was extended to 90 cents after prices advanced the 60-cent limit on March 11.

The most-active contract has more than doubled in the past year and reached a record $13.495 on Feb. 27 on speculation farmers wouldn't produce enough to meet global demand.

Summer rainfall in some grain-growing regions of eastern Australia, the world's sixth-largest wheat exporter, has replenished soil moisture levels after years of drought, Rabobank's Australia and New Zealand unit said today.

Australian growers, who sow their next crop from about May, may plant a record area to wheat to benefit from higher prices, the nation's commodity forecaster said last week. Wheat output may more than double to between 23 million and 26 million metric tons, Rabobank said, restating an earlier forecast.

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Trade Date: 03/17/08 | GLOBEX Prices as of 03/16/08 06:32 PM Quotes are delayed at least 10 minutes

INDEX PRODUCTS
CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE

S&P 500 JUN08 1301.40 B +840
E-MINI MAR08 1300.75 +925
E-MINI JUN08 1301.75 +875
NSDQ100 JUN08 1737.50 A +1300
E-NASDAQ JUN08 1736.25 +1175

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March 17 (Bloomberg) -- MF Global Ltd., the largest broker of exchange-traded futures and options, fell as much as 80 percent in New York trading on speculation clients are pulling money and as financial shares dropped to their lowest level in almost five years.

``There are concerns that their commodities prime brokerage group customers are pulling money out,'' said Michael Nasto, senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc., which manages $5 billion in San Antonio. ``The customers have concerns about the financial stability of the firm.''

The stock dropped 45 percent over two days last month after a trader lost $141.5 million on what the Hamilton, Bermuda-based company said were unauthorized wheat futures trades. The plunge today came after Bear Stearns Cos. agreed to be acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for $2 a share because a cash shortage threatened to bankrupt the company.

MF Global spokeswoman Diana DeSocio didn't return a call for comment. The company had $10.4 billion of customer-segregated funds as of Jan. 31, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
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March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Cattle futures rose the most since August on speculation that the high cost of feed grain will lead to smaller U.S. herds, reducing supplies available to slaughterhouses. Pork bellies fell to a two-year low.

Corn has climbed 55 percent in the past six months, touching a record last week, boosting costs for feedlots that buy young cattle and fatten them on grain until they weigh about 1,200 pounds and are sold to meatpackers. The Department of Agriculture probably will report a drop in the number of calves placed in feedlot herds in its March 20 report, said Walt Hackney, owner of Hackney Ag in Omaha, Nebraska.

``I'm seeing a general shortage of feeder cattle all the way around,'' Hackney said in an interview.

Cattle futures for June delivery rose 1.525 cents, or 1.7 percent, to 91.5 cents a pound on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Aug. 17. Futures have declined 8 percent in the past six months.

Feeder-cattle futures for May delivery gained 1.8 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $1.05625 a pound. The price has dropped 9.3 percent in the past six months.

Dry weather in the southeastern U.S. also has forced some producers to reduce herd sizes because fewer cattle were able to graze on wheat, Hackney said.

``Virginia, Tennessee and in that area, they're going to be 10 or maybe even 12 percent short on the calf crop this year because of severe drought and the extraordinary culling that they did,'' Hackney said.
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Wheat Plunges the Exchange Limit on Prospects for Rising Output

By Tony C. Dreibus

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat fell the maximum permitted by the Chicago Board of Trade as rains improved crop prospects in Australia and farmers worldwide prepared to sow more grain to take advantage of prices that reached a record high last month.
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March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans tumbled more than 4 percent, and wheat fell on forecasts that U.S. farmers will plant more this year to take advantage of surging prices. Corn rose as growers may seed less of the grain.

When seeding starts in May, growers will plant 12 percent more soybeans than a year ago, according to a Bloomberg survey of 24 analysts and traders before a government report on March 31. Spring-wheat acres may rise 6.2 percent, the survey showed. Soybeans have gained 64 percent in the past year, and wheat more than doubled.

``I'm expecting some liquidation pressure in soybeans and wheat before the report,'' said Dave Marshall, a farm-marketing adviser for Toay Commodity Futures Group LLC in Nashville, Illinois.

Soybean futures for May delivery plunged 60 cents, or 4.5 percent, to $12.6725 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price rose to a record $15.8625 on March 3 as demand climbed, while U.S. growers last year planted the fewest acres with the oilseed in more than a decade.

Futures climbed 5 percent this week after farmers in Argentina, the world's third-largest exporter, blocked roads to ports in a protest against an increase in export taxes.

Wheat futures for May delivery dropped 25 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $9.89 a bushel. The price reached a record $13.495 a bushel on Feb. 27 on forecasts that global inventories will dwindle to the lowest in 30 years. Futures were little changed this week.

About 71.7 million acres in the U.S. will be planted with soybeans, up from 63.6 million last year, and 14.1 million acres will be seeded with spring wheat, analysts in the survey said.

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March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar futures in New York fell, declining for the second straight week, because of India's plans to boost exports and speculation high taxes will keep shipments to Russia from increasing.

Russia, the largest importer of the sweetener, will keep the seasonal duty on raw-sugar imports at $220 a metric ton in May, the Sugar Producers' Union said. The tax previously was $140 a ton. Exports from India may rise to 5 million tons in the year ending Sept. 30 from an earlier forecast of 3.5 million tons, Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the Maharashtra State Co-operative Sugar Factories Federation Ltd., said last month.

``Russia may delay buying,'' said Michael McDougall, a senior vice president for Newedge USA LLC in New York. ``India is trying to sell before the monsoon season,'' which begins in June.

Sugar futures for May delivery fell 0.4 cent, or 3.3 percent, to 11.73 cents on ICE Futures U.S., formerly the New York Board of Trade, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since March 19.
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March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans advanced, heading for a sixth quarterly increase, on expectations China, the world's largest buyer of the oilseed, will step up purchases after damage to its rapeseed crop. Wheat fell and corn climbed.

Soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade have fallen 18 percent from a record $15.8625 a bushel on March 3. China may boost buying in the next few months after rapeseed crops were hurt by snow storms, said John Reeve, associate director for agricultural commodities at UBS AG in Singapore.

``Chinese demand remained strong and there's been some damage to their rapeseed crop in February so that's going to increase their requirement for oilseeds,'' Reeve said today.

Soybeans for May delivery gained as much as 32.75 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $13 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading and stood at $12.74 as of 11:51 a.m. in London. Prices have gained 4.9 percent this quarter.

Farmers in Argentina, the world's third-biggest soybean exporter, halted a strike that has led to food shortages in Buenos Aires. The news failed to dent futures as investors focused on longer-term conditions, Reeve said.

``The agricultural commodities probably are more in touch with their fundamentals now than they were one or two months ago when the funds grabbed them and pushed them beyond where the fundamentals were,'' he said.
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March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans fell the maximum allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade after the U.S. government said farmers will boost planting by 18 percent, more than analysts forecast, to take advantage of record prices.

Growers will seed 74.8 million acres, up from 63.6 million last year, the Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg forecast 71.7 million acres, after prices jumped 64 percent in the past year. Planting of corn, the biggest U.S. crop, will drop 8.1 percent as farmers shift to soybeans, the government said.

``The USDA threw another set of curves for the grain trade with lower-than-expected corn acres and higher-than-expected soybean acres,'' said Jerry Gidel, a market analyst for North American Risk Management Services Inc. in Chicago.

Soybean futures for May delivery fell the 70-cent maximum allowed on the Chicago exchange, or 5.5 percent, to $11.9725 a bushel at 12:10 p.m. The price has dropped 1.4 percent this quarter, heading for the first quarterly loss in six quarters. There were more than 59,000 unfilled sell orders in the May futures at 12:34 p.m. local time, exchange data show.

Last week, the price gained 5 percent, snapping a three- week slump. The most-active contract reached a record $15.8625 on March 3. U.S. farmers in 2007 planted the fewest acres in more than a decade.

Soybean-oil futures for May delivery fell the exchange limit of 3.5 cents, or 6.4 percent, to 51.48 cents a pound in Chicago. The price has dropped 29 percent from a record 72.69 cents on March 4.
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April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Rice climbed to a record and corn traded near its highest ever on speculation the 3 percent annual increase in global demand for cereals will outstrip supply as governments curb exports to prevent protests.

Rice, the staple food for about 3 billion people, rose 2.4 percent in Chicago trading today after doubling in the past year. Soybeans advanced for the third day and wheat gained. Crop supply has been reduced by drought in countries including Canada and Australia and a U.S. freeze followed by excessive rain last year.

``A lot of what we're seeing at the moment is not related to production, but the fact that a number of countries are implementing trade restrictions,'' said Darren Cooper, a senior economist at the International Grains Council in London.

China, India and Vietnam have cut rice exports, and Indonesia has reduced import tariffs to protect food supplies and cool inflation. Rice in Chicago climbed 42 percent in the first quarter, more than all of last year's 33 percent gain. Record grain prices contributed to strikes in Argentina, riots in Ivory Coast and a crackdown on illicit exports in Pakistan.

Rough rice for May delivery advanced to $20.26 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade today after the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said global exports will drop 3.5 percent this year as nations curb sales. It was at $20.225 as of 11:38 a.m. London time.

The World Bank estimates ``that 33 countries around the world face potential social unrest because of the acute hike in food and energy prices,'' Robert Zoellick, the bank's president, said on the organization's Web site. For these countries ``there is no margin for survival,'' he said.
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April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter, pledged to maintain supplies and India vowed to crack down on hoarding as shortages drove prices to a record and threatened to trigger protests in Asia and Africa.

The nation ``has enough rice for export to neighboring countries'' and may be able to deliver as much as 1.2 million tons a month, Prasert Gosalvitra, head of the rice division of the farm ministry, said today in Bangkok. Thailand has shipped about 1.1 million tons a month since October, he said.

Rice, the staple food for about 3 billion people, gained 1 percent to its highest ever in Chicago today after doubling in the past year. Higher imports by the Philippines, the biggest buyer, and export cuts by China, India, Egypt and Vietnam pushed up prices, contributing to food riots in Ivory Coast and anti- hoarding campaigns in Pakistan and the Philippines.

``We expect a significant rise in prices, well above the long-term average, in the short-to-medium term,'' Les Gordon, president of the Rice Growers Association of Australia, said today. Population growth, urban encroachment on land, and rising grain prices are contributing to the increase.

Rice for May delivery rose 20 cents to a record $20.40 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade. Global exports will drop 3.5 percent this year as nations curb sales, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said April 2. World cereal usage will increase 2.6 percent to 2.12 billion metric tons in 2007-08, the agency said in February.
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April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter, ruled out selling some of the 2 million metric tons of the grain it has stockpiled as global prices rise to records.

Supplies will increase in the coming months as about 6 million tons of milled rice enters the market from the nation's April-June harvest, said Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan.

``There is enough rice supply for domestic consumption'', Mingkwan told reporters late yesterday in Nonthaburi province, near Bangkok. ``The current shortage has been caused by some hoarding and panic buying on concern the price will rise further.'' There is no need to reduce exports, he said.
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April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Rice climbed to a record for a fourth day as the Philippines, the biggest importer, announced plans to buy 1 million tons and some of the world's largest exporters cut sales to ensure they can feed their own people.

Rice, the staple food for half the world, gained 2.4 percent to $21.50 per 100 pounds in Chicago, double the price a year ago. Philippine President Gloria Arroyo announced two rice tenders today and pledged to crack down on hoarding. Anyone found guilty of ``stealing rice from the people'' will be jailed, she said.

``We're in for a tough time,'' Roland Jansen, chief executive officer of Pfaffikon, Switzerland-based Mother Earth Investments AG, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Zurich today. Unless prices decline ``you will have huge problems of daily nutrition for half the planet.'' Mother Earth holds about 4 percent of its $100 million funds in the grain.

China, Egypt, Vietnam and India, accounting for more than a third of global rice exports, curbed sales this year to protect domestic stockpiles. The World Bank in Washington says 33 nations from Mexico to Yemen may face ``social unrest'' after food and energy costs increased for six consecutive years.

The Philippines, which imports about 15 percent of its rice, is tightening controls over domestic sales and buying more overseas. The government's rice tenders are in April and May.

``I am leading the charge'' against any officials and businessmen who divert supplies or distort the price of the staple food, Arroyo said in a televised speech today.

``The need to avert social tensions from high food prices'' has made ``food sufficiency even more urgent,'' Abah Ofon, a soft-commodities analyst with Standard Chartered Plc, said in a report yesterday. Food importers may not be able to meet their needs because of the export limits, Dubai-based Ofon said.
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April 8 – Bloomberg (Terry Barrett): “Global food prices rose 57% in March from a year earlier, according to the UN Food and Agriculture organization. From a month earlier prices rose 1.4%.”

April 11 – Financial Times (Javier Blas): “Governments are racing to strike secretive barter and bilateral agreements with food-exporting countries to secure scarce supplies as the price of agricultural commodities jump to record highs, diplomats and cereal traders say. The moves coincide with a significant tightening of the global food market as leading exporters of agricultural commodities ban foreign sales. The government-to-government contracts could bypass those restrictions, diplomats say.”
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/CreditBubbleBulletinHome

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April 17 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's largest grain producer, curbed fertilizer exports and the Philippines failed to buy all the rice it needs as record prices heightened concern the world is running short of food.

China will increase export duties on all fertilizers to as much as 135 percent to safeguard local supplies, the Ministry of Finance said today. The Philippines received offers for just two- thirds of the 500,000 metric tons of rice that it sought to buy. ``The prices are just too high,'' Vic Jarina, the deputy director of the Philippines National Food Authority, said today.

Rice futures in Chicago rose 2.5 percent to a record $23.12 per 100 pounds (45 kilograms), bringing its gain this year to 66 percent. Wheat, corn, palm oil and soybeans have all risen to their highest ever this year.

The rally, including record crude oil prices, has stoked concerns inflation will rise and civil unrest may spread. The food crisis was of ``emergency proportions,'' United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said April 14. Turkey today said it will abolish import duties on rice and Egypt said it will reduce the land allocated for planting the grain to save water.

``We can't really cut down on rice because that's our main staple,'' Edwin Sudiacal, 31, a security guard in Manila, the Philippine capital, said today. He said he's forced to buy costlier rice at commercial outlets as there aren't enough state- subsidized supplies.

Rice, the staple food for half the world, was at $23.02 on the Chicago Board of Trade as of midday in London.
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April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Global wheat production will advance 6 percent to an all-time high this year, as record prices spur farmers to grow more, Rabobank Group said.

The harvest will expand by 37 million metric tons to 640 million tons, Utrecht, Netherlands-based Rabobank said in an e- mailed report today. Plantings will gain 5 percent and global stockpiles will rise 9 percent.

``Wheat production is forecast to rebound strongly, resulting in a partial recovery in world inventory levels and taking some pressure off world prices,'' a team of analysts led by Luke Chandler in Sydney, Australia, wrote in the report.

Wheat, corn, rice and soybeans have risen to records this year on shrinking global stockpiles and rising demand from the food, feed and biofuel industries. The rally has meant higher costs for everything from Italian pasta to Japanese noodles, and spurred street protests from Haiti to Ivory Coast.

Wheat for July delivery climbed 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $9.29 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices have gained 96 percent in a year.

Rabobank expects wheat prices to decline in the second half of this season, compared with the first half, as production exceeds demand by 12 million tons.

``Prices for corn, soybeans and other oilseeds including canola are expected to outperform wheat prices over the coming 12 months'' because of ``tight supply and demand fundamentals and the increased link to biofuel markets,'' the report said.

Soybean plantings are expected to gain 8 percent in 2008, buoying production by 12 percent, Rabobank said.

Corn acreage is forecast to drop ``slightly,'' while cotton plantings in the U.S. may fall by as much as 15 percent this year, the bank said.
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April 22 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world's second-biggest grower of rice and wheat, may harvest record crops after adequate rainfall and sunshine boosted yields, helping the government tame inflation that's near a three-year high.

Food grain production in the year to June will rise 4.6 percent to 227.3 million metric tons, Agriculture Secretary P.K. Mishra told a news conference in New Delhi today. Wheat output may climb to 76.8 million tons, more than the 74.8 million tons estimated in February and up from 75.8 million tons last year.

A bigger harvest of wheat and rice is crucial to efforts by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government to cool inflation before general elections within a year. The prospect of lower prices may deter the government from extending a ban on wheat futures to other commodities as early as this week.

``This is certainly good for the government, which is struggling to control inflation,'' said Kishore Narne, head of research at Anand Rathi Commodities Ltd. ``Record production will also ease pressure on the government to ban futures trading in some commodities.''

India may consider barring trading in some commodities by the end of this week, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar told parliament on April 16 after lawmakers said trading had contributed to rising prices of staples such as edible oils. Higher food prices helped stoke inflation to 7.14 percent in the week ended April 5, more than two percentage points above the central bank's target.
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April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Coal for delivery in northwest Europe rose to a record on higher costs for shipping the fuel.

Freight rates have gained 58 percent from their lowest this year on Jan. 29, according to the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities. Haulage can account for as much as half the price of delivered coal.

``It's Atlantic-driven pressure. We have a huge volume of demand'' for ships, Alex Gray, chief executive officer of Clarkson Securities Ltd., a unit of the world's biggest shipbroker, said by phone today. There's ``nothing like'' the number of available vessels needed, he said.

Coal prices at Richards Bay, South Africa, the biggest single source of coal burned by European generators, have risen 16 percent this year. Supplies were curtailed when two railcars caught fire on April 20, damaging a line and halting some coal and chemical exports from Sasol Ltd. A lack of South African coal may force buyers to source from Atlantic-coast countries such as Colombia or the U.S.

A benchmark coal derivative, used to bet on future prices, rose to a record. The fuel for delivery to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp with settlement next year advanced $1.25, or 0.9 percent, to $138.25 a metric ton as of 9:15 a.m. in London, according to GFI Group Inc. prices.
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April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat fell on speculation demand for global supplies will ease after India, the world's second- biggest consumer, boosted purchases from domestic producers.

India said today it bought 10.4 million metric tons of the grain locally since the harvest started last week, 3.6 million tons more than a year earlier. Production may rise to a record 76.8 million tons by the end of June, the government said this week. Wheat futures rose to a record in February as worldwide inventories dwindled.

``Traders are focusing on the Indian supplies returning to normal,'' said Mike Zuzolo, chief analyst at Risk Management Commodities in Lafayette, Indiana.

Wheat futures for July delivery fell 8.5 cents, or 1 percent, to $8.155 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price is down 7.8 percent this week after falling a combined 11 percent in the previous two weeks. Futures are still up 61 percent in the past year, reaching a record $13.495 a bushel on Feb. 27.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast India will import 2 million metric tons of the grain in the 12 months ending May 31, down from 6.7 million tons a year earlier. India said on April 23 it may not purchase any wheat from global markets because of higher domestic production.
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April 28 (Bloomberg) -- As farmers confront mounting costs and riots erupt from Haiti to Egypt over food, Garry Niemeyer is paying the price for Wall Street's speculation in grain markets.

Commodity-index funds control a record 4.51 billion bushels of corn, wheat and soybeans through Chicago Board of Trade futures, equal to half the amount held in U.S. silos on March 1. The holdings jumped 29 percent in the past year as investors bought grain contracts seeking better returns than stocks or bonds. The buying sent crop prices and volatility to records and boosted the cost for growers and processors to manage risk.

Niemeyer, who farms 2,200 acres in Auburn, Illinois, won't use futures to protect the value of the crop he will harvest in October. With corn at $5.9075 a bushel, up from $3.88 last year, he says the contracts are too costly and risky. Investors want corn so much that last month they paid 55 cents a bushel more than grain handlers, the biggest premium since 1999.

``It's the best of times for somebody speculating on grain prices, but it's not the best of times for farmers,'' said Niemeyer, 59. ``The demand for futures exceeds the demand for cash grains.''

Commodity investors control more U.S. crops than ever before, competing with governments and consumers for dwindling food supplies. Demand is rising with population and income gains in Asia, while record energy costs boost biofuels consumption, sending grain inventories to the lowest levels in two decades.
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April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Rice plunged the most in three weeks after a government report showed planting of the U.S. crop accelerated, easing concern that global food supplies will lag behind demand.

About 44 percent of the U.S. crop was planted as of April 27, compared with 26 percent a week earlier and 56 percent a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. The average for the date from 2003 to 2007 is 58 percent. About 20 percent had emerged from fields versus 30 percent a year ago.

The cereal, the staple food for half the world, has tumbled for four days, declining 7 percent, after doubling in a year as China, Vietnam and India curbed exports. Record prices stoked social tension in Asia and Africa and prompted Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sam's Club to limit purchases of jasmine, basmati and long-grain white rice in U.S. stores.

``Supplies of the grain are sufficient, but there was a bottleneck because of speculative hoarding in some countries,'' Nicholas Chung, senior manager at Korea Development Bank, said by phone today from Seoul.

Rice for July delivery fell as much as 74.5 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $22.935 per 100 pounds in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest intraday decline since April 8. The commodity traded at $23.155 at 6:13 p.m. Singapore time.

The cereal has fallen from a record $25.07 per 100 pounds April 24 after Thailand and Brazil said they won't curb exports and Pakistan announced plans to sell 2.5 million tons of the grain, easing concern that global supplies were short.
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April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat fell below $8 a bushel for the first time in five months as investors speculated the U.S. will slow the pace of interest-rate cuts, boosting the dollar and reducing grain exports that surged as the currency weakened.

The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent today after the close of wheat trading in Chicago. The central bank has reduced interest rates seven times since September, sending the dollar to a record low against the euro. A pause in the rate reductions may boost the dollar, reducing the appeal of U.S. wheat for overseas buyers.

``If the Fed cuts the rate 25 points, behind that it'll be insinuated that we're not going to do this anymore, and that will strengthen the dollar,'' said Darrell Holaday, president of Advanced Market Concepts in Manhattan, Kansas, before the Fed announced it had lowered rates.

Wheat for July delivery fell 7.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $8.01 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after earlier dropping to $7.9725, the lowest for a most-active contract since Nov. 21. Wheat is still up 65 percent in the past year.

The grain has plunged 41 percent since reaching a record $13.495 on Feb. 27 and is down 14 percent this month as the world's farmers increased planting, easing concern that rising demand will erode global inventories.
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May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Natural rubber futures in Tokyo climbed to the highest in almost eight weeks on speculation China, the world's biggest consumer, will increase imports after stockpiles of the raw material declined for an eighth week.

Rubber inventories fell by 6,645 tons, or 13 percent, to 46,110 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said yesterday. The volume was the lowest since October, 2006, and a 52 percent drop from this year's peak of 96,760 tons in January.

``The sharp decline in inventories underlines the strength of Chinese rubber demand,'' Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co., said by phone today. ``China is likely to step up purchases to build up stockpiles.''
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May 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Asian Development Bank is ready to provide fiscal support to help countries in Asia and the Pacific to meet the cost of higher food prices.

``Rising food and fuel prices have placed many governments in the region under significant pressure to put food on the table of the poor and vulnerable,'' ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said at a briefing in Madrid. ``The ADB will provide immediate budgetary support to the hardest hit countries.''

Global food prices surged 57 percent in March from a year earlier, according to the United Nations. Asia's poorest countries including Bangladesh and Tajikistan have borne the brunt of the increases, Kuroda said, even as the price gains stoked social tensions in other parts of the world.

Vietnam and other rice-producing nations have curtailed exports to maintain supplies and cool local inflation, pushing up prices for buyers such as the Philippines, the world's biggest importer of the grain. Corn, wheat and soybean prices have all reached records this year too. Rice prices have more than doubled in the past year.

Thailand and Vietnam, the two nations that supply almost half of global rice exports, agreed ``in principle'' yesterday to set up a cartel to manage supplies amid near-record prices.

``The agriculture market should be market-driven,'' Kuroda said. ``Any kind of cartel isn't good for the exporters and the importers.''
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