From the Bureau of Labor Services:

Employment increased in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 92,000 in October following gains of 148,000 in September and 230,000 in August (as revised).  In October, job growth continued in several service-providing industries, while employment declined in manufacturing and construction.  Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents over the month.

So, how does this expansion compare to other expansions with the addition to today's number?  Bush still has the worst record of job creation of any expansion in the last 40 years.

2/61 - 12/69

Beginning number of jobs: 53,556,000

Ending number of jobs: 71,240,000

Total Jobs Created: 17,684,000

Compound rate of establishment job growth: 3.283%

11/70 - 11/73

Beginning number of jobs: 70,409,000

Ending number of jobs: 77,909,000

Total Jobs Created: 7,500,000

Compound rate of establishment job growth: 3.43%

3/75 - 1/80

Beginning number of jobs: 76,649,000

Ending number of jobs: 90,800,000

Total Jobs Created: 14,151,000

Compound rate of establishment job growth: 3.56%

11/82 - 7/90

Beginning number of jobs: 88,770,000

Ending number of jobs: 109,773,000

Total Jobs Created: 21,003,000

Compound rate of establishment job growth: 2.8%

3/91 - 3/01

Beginning number of jobs: 108,542,000

Ending number of jobs: 132,504,000

Total Jobs Created: 23,962,000

Compound rate of establishment job growth: 2.01%

11/01 - ?

Beginning number of jobs: 130,883,000

Ending number of jobs: 135,884,000

Total Jobs Created: 4,526,000

Compound rate of establishment job growth: .71%

Here's a chart from Stirling Newberry to illustrate:

There are some points of concern in the latest report.  First, construction lost 26,000.  This means the housing slowdown is starting to hit employment levels.  A conservative reading of employment for this expansion gives 30% of total growth as occurring from housing.  Construction employment has been level this year.  Now we are just starting to see construction employment dip.

Manufacturing lost 39,000.

Education/health increased 28,000.

Leisure and hospitality increased 35,000

Government employment increased 34,000.

Business and Professional Services increased 43,000.  However -- slightly less than half of these jobs (21,000) were administrative.

Let me add this important caveat.  The BLS has revised the employment figures upwards of 810,000 last month, and then revised the August and September upwards again this month.  Here's the most important part: IT'S STILL THE WORST RATE AND LEVEL OF JOB CREATION IN THE LAST 40 YEARS.  Despite the fact the BLS is clearly having problems of some sort with their model which is undercounting job growth, job growth -- as revised -- is still the lowest we have seen in our lifetimes.

Here's one final point: Unemployment rates have no predictive power for recessions.  Take a look at this chart from Calculated Risk

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