Housing: A Picture is Worth 1000 Words


A picture is worth a thousand words.  In the case of the current economic environment, a picture is worth a thousand words.  Below are some charts and graphs of the current housing market and the households who purchase housing.  These graphs indicate there are problems ahead.

 

Consumers can't take on much more debt.  Notice how the steepness of this line has continually increased, indicating the rate of debt accumulation has increased.

Please check out the graphs after the jump

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A larger percentage of income is going to paying off debt.

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Homebuilders are bearish ....

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... so they're not building as many new houses.  Pay particular attention to the rapid drop in housing starts and recessions.

 

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Home sales have dropped ...

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... so inventories of available homes for sale have ballooned:

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As inventories increase and home sales drop, prices drop.  This trend looks like it will continue for awhile.

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Here's a graph of prices without inventory:

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Banks are more exposed to real estate.

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Finally, home prices lead the S&P stock index:

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Bonddad September 22, 2006 - 7:18am
( categories: Economics )

Wow, that's quite the collection Hale. Good work.

Ian Welsh September 22, 2006 - 9:05am

Thanks

Bonddad September 22, 2006 - 9:11am

...which makes me curious as to what's happening in resale homes, as well as what the relative size of the new/resale market components is? As well, is there something out there that contextualizes the first graph? As it stands now it looks to be an absolute measure - I presume that it's adjusted for consumer inflation, but what does it look like against total debt and adjusting for increases in the size of the economy?

(As I said in another thread, anyone can ask questions, but I don't have enough background in this field to have any good levers for progress to better understanding without asking. Sorry.)

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave September 22, 2006 - 9:53am

existing home inventories are just as high and prices are under pressure.

Household debt as a percentage of GDP is now 91%. HH debt as a percent of disposible income is 128%,

Bonddad September 22, 2006 - 12:05pm

showing the correlation between stocks and housing: At the start of it (1994), they're hugely uncorrelated. What does it look like before '94? Is the recent correlation an anamoly or are the non-correlated times the exceptions?

Very convincing presentation, btw. Keep the analysis coming!

Bolo September 22, 2006 - 11:24am

I don't know the correlation before 1994.

Bonddad September 22, 2006 - 11:39am

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