Adomanis is a smart, shrewd analyst. His opinion is worth reading and considering. I don’t necessarily agree with everything he says, but as Numerian noted in the comment section of one of our multiple Ukrainian threads, there are untold consequences for Russia’s actions. And in any war-like situation the enemy (meaning the Ukraine in this case) holds cards of its own. How it plays them? We shall see. But the point is, the Ukraine has options too.
That conclusion is and was never in doubt by me. Should Russia have done what it did? Hell if I know. I’m not sitting in Pootie-poot’s command center. All I know is how I might react given what I do know of Russian history and how I might react were I put in a situation where I was the leader of a nation that was slowly being encircled by what I perceived as a hostile military alliance that had broken promise after promise.
Sometimes in life and in geopolitics there are no good choices, only lots of bad choices. The duty of a statesman is to make the best bad choice. You deal with the world you have, not the world you want.
So, Adomanis makes a lot of sense. That being said and risks notwithstanding, I can still put myself in Putin’s shoes and see why he had to make the move he did.
And that has been my fundamental gripe throughout the entire crisis: no one in the West was doing that. No one was acting upon Sun Tzu’s dictum: know thy enemy, know thyself.
The ultimate failure here is one of imagination. The US policy elite simply cannot move past this paralyzing virtual reality of foreign policy orthodoxy in which they inhabit: an incestuous feedback loop of think tankers and pundits, each one of whom is vying for a position on the NSC or has had one at State and no one suffers any consequences for being wrong. Ever.
Moreover, no one offers to try and find a solution because the only solution is one based on American preferences.
That’s not diplomacy, it’s tautology.
That tautology has led us to a very dangerous point.