tfisb's blog

Challenges in Financing Wind Power

Sun, 02 Mar 2008 11:40:04 -0800

Why wind needs feed-in tariffs (and why it is not the enemy of nuclear) by Jerome a Paris
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/2/114943/7075/512/467302

First class article on the challenges of financing wind power.

Kirkuk Status Referendum - Trigger for partition?

Sat, 09 Feb 2008 11:45:10 -0800

The Kirkuk Status Referendum ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk_status_referendum,_2008

... has been delayed several times and is currently scheduled for June 2008. A Kurdish win seems likely, but is opposed by many regional groups both inside and outside Iraq. It could be a trigger for an escalation of the civil war.

Will it be rescheduled again? Will it take place, but the result accepted with equanimity, or at least resignation? Will it cause enough violence that people will vote for McCain? Will it cause so much violence that people won't vote for McCain? Anybody seen a recent article they liked discussing this?

Romney Buys Florida

Fri, 25 Jan 2008 22:39:04 -0800

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html

So blatant, so good for the Democrats :)

Interesting that Romney's new "Washington is broken" message is working. I seem to have heard that somewhere before.

Is the fix in for Hillary?

Tue, 04 Dec 2007 21:44:01 -0800

I thought Juan Cole expressed a valid concern on Monday, but I haven't seen much discussion on his post.

Edwards and Obama have taken their names off the Michigan and Florida ballots to mollify Iowa and New Hampshire. Hillary's name is still on the ballots. In theory, it doesn't matter because Michigan and Florida votes won't be counted, but in practice what really matters is the January headline "Hillary sweeps keys states of Michigan and Florida, can she be stopped!?" And if the nomination is close, will the Democratic Convention relent and let Michigan and Florida vote anyway (probably for Hillary)? Will that fatally flaw party confidence in the nomination process and, in turn, possibly put the 2008 election at risk?

Is there any way of avoiding this train wreck?

The NRCC is broke

Sat, 22 Sep 2007 17:12:04 -0700

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/09/democrats_outpacing_republican.html

DCCC - cash on hand $22m - debt $3m - raising $3.5m / month
NRCC - cash on hand $2m - debt $4m - raising $2.5m / month

No wonder their candidates are retiring.

Israel v. Iran 2

Sun, 19 Nov 2006 00:13:22 -0800

In which the previous aggregation is continued. The purpose being to gauge a likelihood of an attack on Iran.

The story so far ...

Bush takes a thumping and fires his dear friend Rumsfeld replacing him with Gates who is seen as a realist - just as likely to ask Iran to help out in Iran as attack. Olmert, the Israeli PM, flys to DC to talk with Bush about Iran. Ex-PM Netanyahu tells the United Jewish Communities General Assembly that Iran is "preparing another Holocaust for the Jewish state." He succeeds in scaring people.

However, no decision seems to have been made, although Kissinger's OpEd in the Khaleej Times represents the realist position. David Albright gives a nice overview of Iran's actual nuclear capabilities and notes that airstrikes to reduce such modest capabilities would be pointless and insane.

The currently proposed token sanctions against Iran indicate that a near term attack is unlikely. Nevertheless, Bush is still in office and has a history of undertaking pointless and insane ventures for little and no discernible reason. And so the story continues ...

Israel v. Iran

Sat, 11 Nov 2006 04:00:45 -0800

Israel rattles saber ...

( VOA ) Senior Israeli Official Warns of Possible Pre-emptive Strike against Iran

Iran responds on cue ...

( AFP via khaleejtimes.com ) Iran in UN protest over Israel “military threats”

I can't see a US strike post-election, but a strike on Iran is right at the edge of Israel's capabilities, and consequently risky, so I can't see the US just stand by and watch it happen.

Scramjet test successful

Sat, 31 Dec 2005 01:59:33 -0800

( UPI via physorg.com ) A joint Office of Naval Research/Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency vehicle achieved a world first on Dec. 10 at an altitude of 63,000 feet -- becoming the first air-breathing, liquid hydrocarbon fuel-powered scramjet engine to fly, the Office of Naval Research reported.

The approximately 106-inch long, 11-inch diameter, missile-shaped vehicle raced at 5,300 feet per second -- Mach 5.5 -- for 15 seconds before a controlled splashdown into the Atlantic Ocean, the statement said.

The FASTT vehicle project is part of the joint ONR/DARPA Hypersonic Flight Demonstration -- or HyFly -- program, designed to demonstrate low-cost flight test techniques and obtain in-flight engine performance data at hypersonic speeds.

The overall goal of HyFly is to flight-test key technologies enabling a long range, high-speed cruise missile that can cruise at speeds up to Mach 6.

U.S. implementing post-Cold War, preemptive-based nuclear deterrence

Sat, 31 Dec 2005 01:42:57 -0800

( Japan Economic Newswire Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge ) The U.S. military has entered into an implementation phase of President George W. Bush's new nuclear doctrine, including preemptive nuclear strikes against "rogue states" that possess weapons of mass destruction such as North Korea and Iran, governmental sources and nuclear specialists told Kyodo News recently.

The U.S. Strategic Command, or STRATCOM, for potential nuclear operations during and after the Cold War set up a new command unit, called the Joint Functional Component Command Space and Global Strike, or JFCCSGS, early in 2005 to accomplish military offensive missions provided by the Nuclear Posture Review, a comprehensive blueprint of nuclear strategy the Defense Department submitted to Congress four years ago.

According to a recent STRATCOM announcement, the newly founded unit has "met requirements necessary to declare an initial operational capability" as of Nov. 18. A week before this announcement, the unit finished a command-post exercise, dubbed Global Lightening, which was linked with another exercise, called Vigilant Shield, conducted by the North American Aerospace Defend Command, or NORAD, in charge of missile defense for North America.

...

Nuclear specialists and governmental sources pointed out that one of its main missions would be to implement the 2001 nuclear strategy that includes an option of preemptive nuclear attacks on "rogue states" with WMDs.

...

Kristensen, who for a decade has obtained many internal military documents through Freedom Information Act (FOIA), said CONPLAN 8022 is "the overall umbrella plan for sort of the pre-planned strategic scenarios involving nuclear weapons."

"It's specifically focused on these new types of threats -- Iran, North Korea -- proliferators and potentially terrorists too," he said. "There's nothing that says that they can't use CONPLAN 8022 in limited scenarios against Russian and Chinese targets."

"It's depending on the scenario. The whole point of 8022 is that it's supposed to be extremely flexible. It's a new thing," Kristensen said.

...

Japan steps up defence of remote isles

Sat, 31 Dec 2005 01:36:17 -0800

( Reuters ) Japan is sending troops to train with U.S. forces and is developing new torpedos to boost the defence of remote islands, including some disputed isles in case China tries to take them over, a local daily said on Saturday.

...

As part of efforts to strengthen its ability to defend remote islands, Japan will send some 125 Japanese ground troops to San Diego, California from Jan. 9-27 for joint training with U.S. Marines, the Nihon Keizai newspaper said.

The troops will take part in reconnaissance training such as learning how to land on potentially-occupied remote islands and gather information, the paper said.

The aim is to strengthen Japan's ability to defend remote southern isles such as the disputed islands known as the Diaoyus in China and the Senkakus in Japan, the newspaper said.

...

the islands have substantial oil rights associated with them

Report: U.S. talks up Iran strike

Sat, 31 Dec 2005 01:26:41 -0800

( UPI ) The Bush administration is preparing NATO allies for a possible military strike against suspected nuclear sites in Iran, German media reported.

...

The German weekly Der Spiegel reported that the administration's contacts with NATO members suggest the administration might seriously be considering the prospect of military action.

"What is new here is that Washington appears to be dispatching high-level officials to prepare its allies for a possible attack rather than merely implying the possibility as it has repeatedly done during the past year," said Der Spiegel.

The German news agency DDP cited Western security sources in a report that CIA Director Porter Goss had asked Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide political and logistic support for air strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets. Goss met Erdogan in Ankara on Dec. 12, and reportedly asked for special cooperation from Turkish intelligence to help prepare and monitor the operation.

China, North Korea strike oil deal

Sat, 31 Dec 2005 01:15:03 -0800

( aljazeera.net ) ... Chinese energy experts have previously said that disagreements over the sea boundary between their country and North Korea is holding up development of oilfields in the Yellow Sea. ...

Chinese geologists estimated in 2002 that offshore fields in the West Bay basin area off North Korea may contain 3 billion tonnes (21.9 billion barrels) of oil and gas. ...

Now that's a journalist

Thu, 29 Dec 2005 14:49:38 -0800

U.S. Teen Runs Off to Iraq by Himself

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051229/ap_on_re_mi_ea/journey_to_iraq

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Maybe it was the time the taxi dumped him at the Iraq-Kuwait border, leaving him alone in the middle of the desert. Or when he drew a crowd at a Baghdad food stand after using an Arabic phrase book to order. Or the moment a Kuwaiti cab driver almost punched him in the face when he balked at the $100 fare.

But at some point, Farris Hassan, a 16-year-old from Florida, realized that traveling to Iraq by himself was not the safest thing he could have done with his Christmas vacation.

And he didn't even tell his parents.

...

It begins with a high school class on "immersion journalism" and one overly eager -- or naively idealistic -- student who's lucky to be alive after going way beyond what any teacher would ask

...

Re-spect.

CERA says no peak for oil before 2020

Tue, 21 Jun 2005 20:39:06 -0700

The Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) analysis rejects the current fear that a near-term "peak" in world oil production and a coming exhaustion of supply are near. The report indicates that the "inflexion" point will come in the third or fourth decade of this century. Moreover, rather than a "peak," it will be an "undulating plateau" that will continue for several decades.

In brief: is optimistic w.r.t. recovery and unconventional technologies as well as Saudi "underexplored." Notable that even this optimistic report is now forecasting something like a peak.

Primary findings of the report include:

* OPEC Outlook - Total OPEC liquids capacity will expand significantly to 45.6 mbd in 2010 from 36.8 in 2004, with the proportion of condensates and NGLs rising to almost 18% of total capacity. Post-2010, OPEC has the hydrocarbon resources to continue expanding capacity at a slightly lower rate than the current decade's 10.9 mbd growth. CERA believes OPEC will accelerate key projects in anticipation of a non-OPEC slowdown in capacity growth.

* Non-OPEC Outlook - Non-OPEC capacity will expand rapidly for the balance of the decade, adding 7.5 mbd to reach 55.8 mbd by 2010, with the increase dominated by contributions from Russia, the Caspian, Brazil, Angola and Canada. Beyond 2010, the rate of increase for non-OPEC liquids capacity is expected to slow dramatically to as low as 2 mbd by 2020. A step change would be needed in investment in exploration to stimulate more rapid expansion of non-OPEC liquids capacity.

* Specific countries - The report expects Saudi Arabia's liquids productive capacity to rise by 1.5 to 2.0 mbd by 2010, to about 12.5 mbd, and observes that the country is still "underexplored." It describes "reduced near-term expectations" for output in Russia, reflecting "the slow development of the export infrastructure and political uncertainty." Capacity in the United States will decline from 7.55 in 2005 to 7.15 in 2010 - about a 5% percent decline.

* Supply sources -- A large number of major, new projects are approved and under development or looking highly likely to proceed, especially in the deep water, the Caspian, in extra heavy oil, and gas-related liquids from the gas boom. There are approximately 20-30 new major (greater than 75,000 barrels per day) projects coming onstream every year to 2010, and these are contributing between 3 and 4 mbd of new liquids capacity annually.

* What Kind of Capacity? - Of the 17.7mbd of gross capacity expected to be added to the world production stream between 2005 and 2010, more than half (10 mbd) will be light liquids and almost 20% (3.2 mbd) will be heavy. Much of the impetus for high oil prices and increasing spreads between WTI and heavy crude in 2004 was that there was there was no ready refining capacity to absorb the growing quantities of heavy, sour oil. Given the time needed to build additional refinery capacity, this will not change in the short to medium term and, as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Canada step-up heavier crude production in the longer term, the prospect of wider light-heavy spreads will encourage either investment in refinery conversion capacity or upgrading capacity nearer the wellhead.

* Unconventional liquids - Condensates, natural gas liquids (NGLs), extra heavy oils, and the ultra-deepwater (greater than 2,500 feet deep) will be the key component of the increase to 101.5mbd in 2010 when they will represent 30% of the total - compared with 22% today and less than 10% in 1990. Also by 2020 unconventional liquids will account for 34% of the total liquids capacity in 2020, compared with 22% percent today and less than 10% in 1990.

* Supply balance -- The balance of supply over demand has the potential to expand significantly over the next five years, and this could drive oil prices to the downside. If demand growth averages a relatively strong 2.2% through 2010, prices could weaken from recent record highs and slip well below $40/bbl as 2007-08 nears. If demand growth were notably weaker, a steeper price fall would be conceivable; however such a fall would likely slow capacity expansion and bring a market rebalance within two to three years.

* Peak or Plateau? -- CERA believes there will be no "peak oil" problem before 2020. However, sometime beyond 2020 an inflexion of sorts will occur, but it will not be followed by a precipitous decline in productive capacity At this time CERA believes that the worldwide capacity profile will track an "undulating plateau" for a number of decades before starting to decline more slowly than might be thought today, as a step change in investment occurs and new technology is pumped into exploration, field upgrades, stranded gas, and heavy oil projects in a manner quite unlike any other period in the history of the oil industry.

* Methodology -- CERA's methodology "for liquids production capacity forecasting adopts a bottoms-up in which the overall profile is the sum of the outlooks for fields in production, fields under development, and fields under appraisal, all of which is built into a national outlook. A component of capacity from future exploration investment, yet-to-find, is also included. For some countries, we include data from every producing field and upcoming major project, while in others the data is less comprehensive."

Israelis Foil Plot by Jewish Extremists

Mon, 16 May 2005 13:42:07 -0700

AP via yahoo.com - Three Jewish extremists planned to fire a missile into Islam's third-holiest shrine in hopes of unleashing mayhem across the Middle East and halting Israel's planned withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank this summer, police said Monday.