JustPlainDave's blog

Inside Iran's Intimidation Campaign

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:33:26 -0700

Gary Sick | October 25

The Daily Beast - Last week, an Iranian-American colleague of mine, Kian Tajbaksh, was sentenced in Tehran to 15 years in prison. The indictment included the charges that (1) he was in contact with me; (2) that he was part of the Gulf/2000 network that I manage; and (3) that I am an agent of the CIA.

Normally, I simply ignore silly accusations such as this. They are nothing new. On one hand, it has been intimated that I must be under the influence of Iranian intelligence (by prominent neoconservatives who believe that my views on Iran’s political development and especially its nuclear program are not sufficiently alarmist). I have also been accused (by such worthies as Hossein Shariatmadari, the ultra-radical editor of Iran’s Kayhan newspaper, who is also a representative of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei) of being a CIA agent. I regard these insinuations as badges of honor, since they merely confirm that I do not subscribe to the ideological extremes of either of these groups. I have always felt that my reputation could speak for itself and required no public defense.

However, this time the accusations are really not about me but about a friend and colleague. Moreover, they are not just newspaper hyperbole by people who have an ax to grind and whose desire to make a political point exceeds their respect for the truth. These assertions are a matter of law—an official indictment by the judicial authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

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Germany Sells, Delivers 2 More Dolphin Subs to Israel

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:13:15 -0700

In November 2005, reports surfaced that that Germany would sell Israel 2 AIP-equipped SSK Dolphin Class submarines. In 2006, the deal was finalized at a total of $1.27 billion, with the German government picking up 1/3 of the cost. The new boats were built at the Howaldtswerke-Deutche Werft AG (HDW) shipyard, in the Baltic Sea coastal city of Kiel.

Now, reports indicate that both submarines have been delivered early…

The Dolphin Class, and Its Improvements

The Dolphins are quiet diesel-electric attack submarines that evolved from Germany’s famous and ubiquitous U209 Class. They can fire torpedoes and missiles from their 533mm torpedo tubes, perform underwater surveillance, and even launch combat swimmers via a wet and dry compartment.

Germany had already donated two Dolphin submarines to the Israeli navy after the Gulf War in the early 1990s. The first-of-class INS (Israeli Naval Ship) Dolphin was commissioned in 1999, while INS Leviathan was commissioned in 2000. The Israelis later bought a 3rd submarine for $350 million total, using a 50/50 shared cost arrangement with the German government. INS Tekuma (“revival, renewal”) also entered service in 2000.

The Dolphin subs are reportedly designed for a crew of 35 and can support 10 passengers. They have a maximum speed of 20 knots (though as diesel subs, their endurance at speed is limited), and a maximum range of 4,500 km/ 2,700 miles. The submarines incorporate Atlas Elektronik’s ISUS 90-1 TCS for provides automatic sensor management, fire and weapon control, navigation and operation.

Chief of fabled hotel retires

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 07:14:30 -0700

Denis D. Gray | Bangkok | June 15

AP - Charming a fuming Elizabeth Taylor, personally snipping a British duke's hair or catering to the refined palates of Cambodia's murderous Khmer Rouge leaders.

It was all in a day's work for Kurt Wachtveitl, as he looks back on 41 years running one of the world's fabled hotels, not with nostalgic tears but plenty of juicy tales and trenchant thoughts about how Bangkok's Oriental Hotel got to be so good.

A legend himself among the international hotel fraternity, the 72-year-old Wachtveitl retires this month, having amassed awards for the five-star hotel along the Chao Phraya River as well as an endless roster of famous and rich, albeit not always agreeable, guests.

[Comment: One of my fondest remembered hotels. Not a shock to me that the guy doesn't have a computer or a Blackberry. ~ JPD]

CNAS Conference

Thu, 11 Jun 2009 06:30:11 -0700

CNAS' third annual conference, "Striking a Balance: A New American Security," will be streamed live starting at 8:30 AM EST.

8:30-8:45 AM - INTRODUCTION AND OPENING REMARKS

The Honorable Dr. Richard Danzig
Chairman of the Board, Center for a New American Security

Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns
Professor, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Board of Directors, CNAS

8:45-9:45 AM - KEYNOTE ADDRESS

Dr. John A. Nagl (INTRODUCTION)
President, Center for a New American Security

General David H. Petraeus, USA
Commander, U.S. Central Command

9:45-11:15 AM - AFTER THE FIRE: SHAPING THE U.S. RELATIONSHIP WITH IRAQ
Thomas E. Ricks (PANEL CHAIR)
Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security

Dr. John A. Nagl (PRESENTER)
President, Center for a New American Security

General John (Jack) Keane, USA (Ret.)
Senior Managing Director and Co-founder, Keane Advisors, LLC

George Packer
Staff Writer, The New Yorker

Nazar Janabi
Next Generation Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Ambassador Samir Sumaida'ie
Ambassador of Iraq to the United States of America

11:15-12:45 PM - TRIAGE: THE NEXT 12 MONTHS IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN

Lieutenant General David W. Barno, USA (Ret.) (PANEL CHAIR)
Director, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University

Andrew Exum (PRESENTER)
Fellow, Center for a New American Security

Nathaniel C. Fick (PRESENTER)
Chief Operating Officer, Center for a New American Security

Dr. Andrew J. Bacevich
Professor of International Relations and History, Boston University

Colonel Christopher G. Cavoli, USA
Military Professor of Security Studies, George C. Marshall Center for Security Studies

1:00-1:45 PM: LUNCHEON KEYNOTE ADDRESS

PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: A NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVE

Dr. Kristin M. Lord (INTRODUCTION)
Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for a New American Security

The Honorable Judith A. McHale
Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs

2:00-3:30 PM - NATURAL SECURITY

The Honorable John Warner (PANEL CHAIR)
Former U.S. Senator, R-Virginia

Sharon E. Burke (PRESENTER)
Vice President for Natural Security

Dr. Roderick G. Eggert
Professor and Division Director, Colorado School of Mines

Dr. Peter H. Gleick
President and Co-Founder, Pacific Institute

Commander E.J. McClure, USN
Office of the Secretary of Defense

3:30-5:00 PM - NO ILLUSIONS: REGAINING THE STRATEGIC INITIATIVE WITH NORTH KOREA

Ambassador Wendy R. Sherman (PANEL CHAIR)
Principal, The Albright Group LLC
Board of Advisors, CNAS

Nirav Patel (PRESENTER)
Bacevich Fellow, Center for a New American Security

Abraham Denmark (PRESENTER)
Fellow, Center for a New American Security

Ambassador Thomas C. Hubbard
Senior Director for Asia, McLarty Associates

Dennis Wilder
Visiting Fellow, The Brookings Institution

5:00-5:15 PM - 1LT ANDREW J. BACEVICH, JR., USA FELLOWSHIP AWARD

Dr. Andrew Bacevich (PRESENTER)
Author and Professor, Boston University

5:15-5:30 PM - CLOSING REMARKS

Nathaniel C. Fick
Chief Operating Officer, Center for a New American Security

The Cairo Speech

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:53:53 -0700

REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT ON A NEW BEGINNING

Cairo University
Cairo, Egypt

1:10 P.M. (Local)

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Thank you very much. Good afternoon. I am honored to be in the timeless city of Cairo, and to be hosted by two remarkable institutions. For over a thousand years, Al-Azhar has stood as a beacon of Islamic learning; and for over a century, Cairo University has been a source of Egypt's advancement. And together, you represent the harmony between tradition and progress. I'm grateful for your hospitality, and the hospitality of the people of Egypt. And I'm also proud to carry with me the goodwill of the American people, and a greeting of peace from Muslim communities in my country: Assalaamu alaykum. (Applause.)

We meet at a time of great tension between the United States and Muslims around the world -- tension rooted in historical forces that go beyond any current policy debate. The relationship between Islam and the West includes centuries of coexistence and cooperation, but also conflict and religious wars. More recently, tension has been fed by colonialism that denied rights and opportunities to many Muslims, and a Cold War in which Muslim-majority countries were too often treated as proxies without regard to their own aspirations. Moreover, the sweeping change brought by modernity and globalization led many Muslims to view the West as hostile to the traditions of Islam.

Violent extremists have exploited these tensions in a small but potent minority of Muslims. The attacks of September 11, 2001 and the continued efforts of these extremists to engage in violence against civilians has led some in my country to view Islam as inevitably hostile not only to America and Western countries, but also to human rights. All this has bred more fear and more mistrust.

So long as our relationship is defined by our differences, we will empower those who sow hatred rather than peace, those who promote conflict rather than the cooperation that can help all of our people achieve justice and prosperity. And this cycle of suspicion and discord must end.

I've come here to Cairo to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect, and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive and need not be in competition. Instead, they overlap, and share common principles -- principles of justice and progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings.

Surging and Awakening

Mon, 18 May 2009 05:42:53 -0700

Dexter Filkins | May 20

The New Republic

The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008
By Thomas E. Ricks
(Penguin Press, 394 pp., $27.95)

From centrality to banality: perhaps no other event in modern American history has gone from being contentious to being forgotten as quickly as the war in Iraq. Remember the war? It consumed a trillion American dollars, devoured a hundred thousand Iraqi lives, squandered a country's reputation, and destroyed an American presidency. Given the retreat of the American press--the first American withdrawal from Iraq, you might say--one could almost be excused, in the spring of 2009, for forgetting that 140,000 American troops are still fighting and dying there.

That an undertaking as momentous and as costly as America's war in Iraq could vanish so quickly from the forefront of the national consciousness does not speak well of the United States in the early twenty-first century: not for its seriousness and not for its sense of responsibility. The American people, we are told, appear to be exhausted by the war in Iraq. But exhausted by what, exactly? Certainly not from fighting it. The fighting is done by kids from the towns between the coasts, not by any of the big shots who really matter. And they are not exhausted by paying for it, either: another generation will do that. No, when Americans say that they are tired of the war in Iraq, what they really mean is that they are tired of watching it on television, or of reading about it on the Internet. As entertainment, as Topic A, the agony has become a bore. "A car bomb exploded today in a crowded Baghdad marketplace, killing 53 and wounding 112." Click.

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So Much for Idealism

Sun, 17 May 2009 19:01:33 -0700

Carlos Lozada | May 17

WaPo - His hero? Lincoln. His challenges? FDR-like. His speeches? Downright Reaganesque, we're told. But when it comes to foreign policy, who knew Obama would emulate George Bush? No, not the son, but the kinder and gentler one: George H.W. Bush.

So argued Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, in a talk Thursday at the New America Foundation. As he discussed his memoir, "War of Necessity, War of Choice," Haass was asked why the "realist" approach he shared with Bush's national security adviser Brent Scowcroft had lost out to lofty visions of America's ability to transform the world. His answer suggests sober expectations for Obama -- and that the era of idealism in U.S. foreign policy is over.

"This is a pretty good time for us realists," Haass said. "Indeed, the foreign policy of the Obama administration resembles nothing so much as the foreign policy of Bush 41."

[Comment: Dick? Please: help less. I agree and I'm largely happy about it too, but less help. ~ JPD]

Local Wars

Sat, 25 Apr 2009 17:57:08 -0700

Janine di Giovanni | April 24

NYT - David Kilcullen is a former officer in the Australian Army, a strategist and a scholar. He is also an expert on counterinsurgency, or how to combat a rebellion, and one of the few brave souls who had the ear of people in the Bush White House and advised against the invasion of Iraq.

“It’s going to take a lot more than you seem to be willing to commit,” he told the Americans. No one listened. After the invasion, Kilcullen watched the growing mayhem with outrage and dismay. This time people listened.

The French writer on military affairs David Galula, who was known for his theories on counterinsurgency, particularly during France’s Algerian war, must have influenced Kilcullen while he was doing his Ph.D. in political anthropology. Galula’s thesis is that one aim of war is to support the local population rather than control the territory. Part of Kilcullen’s academic research involved living and working alongside villagers in West Java, trying to absorb the culture of Dar’ul Islam, a guerrilla movement hatched in the late 1940s (and later identified by some as an Indonesian clone and ally of Al Qaeda).

What Kilcullen wanted to do was to observe the movement the way the locals did — not from the “official version I could find in books.” So he lived in villages and conversed with his curious neighbors about blue jeans and the Internet, until they trusted him enough to share information.

[Comment: Though it appears currently fashionable in "progressive"^* circles to slag Kilcullen because he has the bad taste not to advocate walking away from Afghanistan, the book's good. I'm currently working through the back third and it's worth the investment. Can't say that it's Galula or Fall and much is familiar to those who have been paying attention (particularly if one has a background in anthropology and unconventional warfare) but it's well worth the time and money devoted. ~ JPD

^*Yeah, the scare quotes were a dig - the folks you leave behind might have a different view on how much progress the policy entails. If you can't wear that perspective with comfort, it's a sign that you should think about it more.]

The Hero and Heroin

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 17:41:12 -0700

Kamin Mohammadi

It is Friday and Abadan's graveyard is busy. The second day of the weekend, this is when many Iranians head to the cemetery to pay their respects to their dead. Families come en masse, bearing flasks of rosewater and boxes of sweetmeats to hand around to other mourners. The graves are raised stone platforms topped by a gravestone or often, a picture of the deceased set in a glass case. Beyond, the recent rain has turned the marshland into fields of mud, palm trees swaying in the breeze.

I am here with my cousin Esmael and his wife and we are bearing trays of homemade halva, honey biscuits, rosewater and fruit. In the martyr's section of the cemetery there are special prayers taking place, the flags placed above each grave flapping in the wind that wafts round the scent of the rosewater used to wash down the graves. We are here for the rituals marking 40 days after my cousin Ebby's funeral, hence the special collection of funereal sweets we are carrying.

We walk past the martyr's section to another part of the cemetery because, although Ebby was a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war, he died not martyred on the battlefield, but 16 years later in an abandoned slum in Abadan, a homeless heroin addict with AIDS and Hepatitis.

part 2

part 3

[Comment: Thought that I had posted this here, but haven't been able to find it on the site - so I guess I didn't. Happened across it again and thought it should be read. ~ JPD]

Iran's Ongoing Proxy War in Iraq

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 12:12:11 -0700

Michael Knights | March 16

WINEP - In December 2008, shortly before assuming office, President Barack Obama called for "tough but direct diplomacy with Iran." As the new administration moves forward, it must realize that U.S.-Iranian negotiations will take place while Iran is killing Americans in Iraq and increasing its support for armed Iraqi factions. Like its predecessor, the Obama administration must prepare for the challenge of negotiating under fire.

Iranian-Backed Operations, 2003-2007

In addition to significant economic investment and relationship building among Iraq's political parties, Iran develops influence in Iraq by providing Iraqi militants with training, shelter, money, and equipment. Analysis of declassified interrogation and other intelligence material published by the West Point Counterterrorism Center, the Institute for Studying War, and the Long War Journal, has publicly revealed what military intelligence professionals have been piecing together for longer than five years: that Iran has been developing a covert action program in Iraq for decades, one that is open-ended, resilient, and well-funded, and that utilizes a broad range of Iraqi proxies.

[Comment: An important update on a file one should lose track of, even now that everyone's all preoccupied with other issues. Oh, and just to make sure everyone remembers - it's WINEP with all that that entails. ~ JPD]

A couple of things from MEI

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 07:05:26 -0800

For those of you who don't know, MEI is the Middle East Institute, headquartered in D.C. To my mind, it's about the most "non-denominational" of the various organizations of its type.

Anyway, they've got a quite useful podcast series which serves as a vehicle for various of their events, etc. Well worth a listen. In particular, this recent event [February 11] is a hoot. The link given is to the event page, podcasts can be accessed from that page.

Reflections on the Iranian Revolution

Charlie Naas, Henry Precht, Alex Vatanka & Trita Parsi

link

MEI is honored to host a special panel presentation on the past, present and future of the Iranian Revolution with both distinguished retired U.S. foreign service officers who served in Iran during the late 1970s and scholars on Iran.

11:00-12:15 PM: Panel I: Reflections on the Iranian Revolution
Speakers: Charlie Naas & Henry Precht

12:15– 12:45 PM: Lunch Break

12:45 – 2:00 PM: Panel II: The Present and Future State the of
Iranian Revolution
Speakers: Alex Vatanka & Trita Parsi

Forthcoming events of interest to this community that I expect will also be podcast include:

The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power with David Sanger, and

The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One with David Kilcullen. Both of these are book tour talks.

Crunch Time in Afghanistan-Pakistan

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 14:49:03 -0800

Dave Kilcullen | February 5

Small Wars Journal - Senator Joseph Lieberman made a timely and well-argued call, during his recent speech at the Brookings Institution, for a comprehensive political-military campaign in the Afghanistan-Pakistan (AFPAK) region. Seven years into a long war, we need to be honest with ourselves about the harsh strategic choices we face. And we need to recognize that before we can expect long-term strategic progress, we first have to deal with an immediate, acute crisis that could derail the entire effort this year. Let me first discuss long-term strategic choices, then turn to the immediate crisis, and conclude with some remarks on Pakistan.

Long-Term Strategic Options

We need to do four things – what we might call “essential strategic tasks” – to succeed in Afghanistan. We need to prevent the re-emergence of an Al Qaeda sanctuary that could lead to another 9/11. We need to protect Afghanistan from a range of security threats including the Taliban insurgency, terrorism, narcotics, misrule and corruption. We need to build sustainable and accountable state institutions (at the central, provincial and local level) and a resilient civil society. Then we can begin a phased hand-off to Afghan institutions that can survive without permanent international assistance. We might summarize this approach as “Prevent, Protect, Build, Hand-Off”. Let’s call it “Option A”.

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Interesting Interview by Fareed Zakaria

Sat, 31 Jan 2009 18:48:30 -0800

ZAKARIA: We've heard of all the problems in Afghanistan, and there are many. The questions are, what is the military situation on the ground, and is there a military solution?

Joining me now are two men who certainly know the answers.

Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and he is back from Afghanistan recently.

David Kilcullen is a counterinsurgency expert who has been an important adviser to General David Petraeus. He is currently a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

How Not to Make Peace in the Middle East

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 13:56:24 -0800

Hussein Agha, Robert Malley | January 15

The New York Review of Books - Foreign affairs had no more than a small part in Barack Obama's presidential campaign, and the Middle East peace process only a fraction of that. Yet the sorry prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians make a break with past US policy on this matter imperative, regardless of the new administration's priorities.

The need for a move away from the lethal mix of arrogance and ignorance characteristic of George W. Bush's presidency is hard to dispute. That is not all that needs breaking away from. Some observers have welcomed the past year's surge of older-style US diplomacy, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's multiple visits to the region, efforts to build Palestinian institutions and security forces, and negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians over a final status agreement. Yet spin aside, these efforts hardly can be deemed successful. Realities on the ground—from settlement construction to deepening divisions within Palestinian and Israeli societies to growing disillusionment with a two-state solution—render the possibility of a peace accord increasingly remote.

[Comment: h/t arn. ~ JPD]

I'd wager there's a Geo Tech with dirty hands in here somewhere

Sun, 14 Dec 2008 05:55:49 -0800

Welcome to NORAD Tracks Santa

A glimpse from last year….NORAD tracking Santa around the world!

All the preparations for this year are in place! Return on Christmas Eve to track St. Nick on his magical flight around the world!

Until then, come back each day to receive updates from the North Pole and to discover new surprises in the Kids' Countdown.

[Comment: Url after the break. Here's to one of the more important, but near as I can tell, relatively little-known trades. ~ JPD]

http://www.noradsanta.org/en/home.html