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March 27, 2003

Flash 69

3:43 EST The BBC is reporting that the Iraqis are not doing what they were supposed to be doing according to pre-war gaming by military officials.

3:42 EST MSNBC reports that house to house fighting has taken place in An Nasiriyah.

3:39 EST The Iraqi defence minister said troops were prepared to defend the capital as he acknowledges that coalition forces are closing in on Baghdad and will surround the city. via BBC

3:30 EST There seem to be some comments about my position on the war. Here is my take. During the conflict there will be absolutely no political judgements made by me. I did have one before the war. But it is now irrelevant. I now have ABSOLUTELY NO OPINION. Ok?

3:23 EST The U.S. State Department is standing by Paul Celluci, the envoy to Canada who recently expressed disappointment with that country's opposition to the war in Iraq and warned of "short-term" damage to U.S.-Canadian relations. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Celluci had spoken with the full authority of the department and Secretary of State Colin Powell.

3:00 EST CENTCOM officials confirm that a Predator drone is missing, but say they are unsure where the craft went down.

2:50 EST I'm woring on an updated sitmap right now. My thoughts on the comments can be found here. I'm trying read read (or scan) them all. They seem ok at this point. Y'all are some smart, passionate people. I like that. And I thank you.

2:44 EST Interested in buying a SA-18? Well, here you go. *Sheesh* Some people know no shame.

2:42 EST Tim Dunlop has some thoughts on possible NAPALM use in Iraq.

2:40 EST BBC: B-52's taking off from Fairford.

2:38 EST Pentagon becomes angry at a non-embedded reporter. He then disappears.

2:36 EST War causing the airlines a world of hurt.

2:34 EST The 1st MEU has found SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles during their operations in Iraq.

Posted by Sean-Paul @ 03/27/2003 02:29 PM | TrackBack




Comments:


what is the source of this SA-18 news? That is a rude shock if it's true.

Posted by: pan_dc on March 27, 2003 02:31 PM



Are these SA-18 forbidden weapons under the UN resolutions?

Posted by: atl3030 on March 27, 2003 02:33 PM



Any background on what an SA-18 is?

Is this significant? Are the SA-18's proscribed?

BTW, this thing about Blix announcing Iraq has used no proscribed weapons ...

I understand Blix is a diplomat -- and I understand that he's trying to remain neutral -- but can someone explain to me how Blix can say (with his usual air of certainty) that Iraq *hasn't* used proscribed weapons?

Posted by: Willie Peck on March 27, 2003 02:33 PM



What makes an SA-18 anti-aircract missile so much worse than other AA missiles?

Posted by: nate on March 27, 2003 02:33 PM



Aren't they Russian?

Posted by: Ellen on March 27, 2003 02:34 PM



What's so radical about SA-18s? I assume that they're not WOMD ... so if a country purchased the ability to shoot down enemy plans - how is this a surprise?

Posted by: labberdasher on March 27, 2003 02:34 PM



It's not so much the war causing the airlines a world of hurt. It's the unions causing the airlines a world of hurt.

Posted by: Mako on March 27, 2003 02:34 PM



SA-18 not SS-18. They're 2 completelt different things.

Posted by: b on March 27, 2003 02:35 PM



SA-18s are the most advanced shoulder launced surface to air missiles made by Russia. They feature advanced infrared counter-countermeasure systems that basically makes it very hard to defeat with flares. If the Iraqis have them, that means they will have a good chance taking down low flying aircraft like A-10, Apaches, and our fighters will keep above a certain altitude to avoid them.

Posted by: pan_dc on March 27, 2003 02:36 PM



SA-18 is a portable IR seeking anti-aircraft missle somewhat similar to the US Stinger. It's particularly nasty to low fliers.

Posted by: Mako on March 27, 2003 02:36 PM



I guess the bigger question is:Who sold these SA-18s to Iraq?

Posted by: atl3030 on March 27, 2003 02:37 PM



link to a page on S-18's :

http://www.thepalmerpress.com/hizbullah1.html

Posted by: JP on March 27, 2003 02:37 PM



SA-18 Description They're Russian.

Posted by: N. Lee Meadows on March 27, 2003 02:38 PM



Anoter link to SA-18 Info at FAS

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sa-18.htm

Posted by: Jack Menendez on March 27, 2003 02:39 PM



Someone, please tell me that the Allies wouldn't start to eliminate journalists.

Come to think of it, wasn't a British journalist and his two assistants, killed by 'friendly' fire?

Posted by: Robin on March 27, 2003 02:40 PM



Y'know - I've read sources suggesting that the Russian arms industry is very touchy about the performance of Iraq's virtually-all Soviet arsenal in the first Gulf War. Can't help but wonder if there's a certain amount of affronted pride in all the up-to-date Russian gear allegedly, and illegally, showing up...

Posted by: PreachyPreach on March 27, 2003 02:40 PM



he's detained, not 'eliminated' - apparently he's not abiding by the embedment rules and has given out geographical details in interviews that can help the Iraqis track Coalition forces.

Posted by: jp on March 27, 2003 02:41 PM



Sean-Paul, thanks for a brilliant site, huge numbers of people appreciate your (absurdly) hard work.

Folks, PLEASE don't let the comments section degrade into a "Yahoo" style infantile name-calling contest, this will be a loss to us all.....

Posted by: Drew on March 27, 2003 02:42 PM



Here is some additional info on SA-18s
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sa-18.htm

Why is it necessary to have 600 embedded journalists? It would appear, on the surface, to be overkill. The logistics alone are formidable.

Posted by: Joey on March 27, 2003 02:42 PM



I'd say the bad business plans of the 90's are what really put the airlines in a world of hurt. But I'm sure the taxpayers will get to bail them out again.

Posted by: Hyde on March 27, 2003 02:42 PM



preachypreach - it wasn't the Russian weapons that didn't performed well, it was the way that they were employed that was flawed in the last Gulf go round. This time the Iraqis a somewhat more clever in their employment. Sort of like, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me....

Posted by: pan_dc on March 27, 2003 02:43 PM



Isn't most of the equipment in the Syrian army Russian? Would it really be all that surprising to discover Russian weapons in Iraq by way of Syria?

Anyone else wondering about some of the Iraqi mis-steps so far?
- NOT blowing up bridges as they retreat when they have the chance
- NOT flooding the river valleys near Iraq with water from dammed reservoirs in the North
- NOT using SA-18 weapons against that Apache attack that was repulsed a couple of days ago.

Are these tactical decisions or bungles?

Posted by: dt on March 27, 2003 02:43 PM



my appologies if I offended anyone. I will refrain from any further name calling.

Posted by: parrish on March 27, 2003 02:44 PM



So the airline labor unions are cancelling thousands of trips? I'm pretty sure that the war is what is inspiring the radical decrease in ticket sales, but i could be convinced otherwise by hard evidence or a decent financial analysis.

Posted by: Christian V on March 27, 2003 02:44 PM



Feh - there's no price list for the SA-18 @ Sean-Paul's link. How am I supposed to plan my private defence spending without a price list? :) ("fireflies, officer. I use them against fireflies.")

Posted by: labberdasher on March 27, 2003 02:45 PM



I suspect they are tactical decisions designed to look like bungles. I bet the Iraqis have a plan once we get to a certain point near Baghdad. Then all hell breaks loose.

Posted by: terry on March 27, 2003 02:46 PM



pan_dc - that's sort of what I was getting at about the affronted pride bit - just engaging in some off-the-wall speculation about why stuff the USSR never, as far as I know, sold for export is starting to appear in a country banned from buying such things in the 90s...

Posted by: PreachyPreach on March 27, 2003 02:46 PM



from FT
...Iraqi television has also shown pictures of a downed Apache attack helicopter, the second to be brought down in Iraqi-held territory.

at end of article

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313191125&p=1012571727092

Posted by: sasch74 on March 27, 2003 02:46 PM



Notice that the company selling the SA-18's is an American company?

Posted by: Brad on March 27, 2003 02:47 PM



I wonder if the sa-18's are part of the weapons that the US is claiming to be sold to Iraq via the Russians within the week?

Posted by: Flemdogg on March 27, 2003 02:48 PM



A pitch from SA-18 manufacturer

http://use-weapon.astral.kiev.ua/adef_zur.html

Posted by: sombrehombre on March 27, 2003 02:48 PM



Actually, the journalist was not embedded, and hence the problem. He did not agree to any rules of conduct, and now he is being detained because he did not agree. I feel very uncomfortable about it, although if you read what he said, it does sound like he is a bonehead because he basically pinpointed the columns position. I heard the guy talk on NPR and I even thought it was strange then.

Posted by: Andrew on March 27, 2003 02:48 PM



http://www.salon.com/news/wire/2003/03/26/blair/index.html


do think god/allah/jah is getting a little tired of all this warmongering?


Posted by: ak on March 27, 2003 02:48 PM



Missing journalists:

An
AFP story published a few hours ago says that THREE Al-Arabiya reporters embedded with the 101st are missing.

The reporters -- two Lebanese and one Syrian -- entered with the Airborne division on March 20. Their employer lost contact with them on the 21st, while they were between Al Zubair and Nassiriya.

Posted by: Claude B. on March 27, 2003 02:48 PM



The only way to buy SA-18s from the Russians is through their official weapons dealer - Rosoboronexport. You can probably arrange buys from other countries that have them.

Posted by: pan_dc on March 27, 2003 02:49 PM



but, are these sa-18 illegal? or is it that they are russian and that is whats upsetting. because if thats all it is, we can throw it on the pile of russian gear being used by the iraqis. the russians said in an India Times report (the link is gone, hmmmmm.) that the US would attempt to fake the discovery of WMD. is it because they have something to hide? the plot thickens....

Posted by: chris on March 27, 2003 02:51 PM



Tactically, the Iraqis have certainly not proven themselves to be particularly able (at least in the 1st Gulf War). One of the most notorious errors by the Iraqis (which they're apparently still doing now) was the burying of their T-72 tanks in order to use them as emplaced guns. Unfortunately, the side effect of this tactic was to make it very, VERY easy for US air power to destroy the emplaced tanks.

Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/ground-equipment-intro.htm

"After the conclusion of Operation Desert Storm, the number of Iraqi tanks appears to have been cut in half. This is a result of both the decisive air war and the mass destruction in the less than two weeks of ground warfare. It appears that the Soviet technique used by the Iraqis of digging their tanks in only leaving the turret exposed, was a primary cause of the loss of so many tanks. US weapons tended to work quite well at blowing the tops off the tanks. And when the U.S. tanks streamed around the front lines from the West, the buried tanks were unable to dig out and move quickly, thus defeating their purpose as a highly mobile high caliber gun."

Posted by: sashae on March 27, 2003 02:51 PM



preachy - maybe it's payback for all those stinger we gave the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan?

Posted by: pan_dc on March 27, 2003 02:51 PM



I understand Blix is a diplomat -- and I understand that he's trying to remain neutral -- but can someone explain to me how Blix can say (with his usual air of certainty) that Iraq *hasn't* used proscribed weapons?

He said he has not seen any evidence suggesting that the Iraq uses forbidden weapons.

Posted by: Haider on March 27, 2003 02:51 PM



While I agree the missing reporter was, at the very least, stupid for giving away so much information, I'm still disappointed that his editor apparently doesn't care what happens to him. Maybe I've got a romantic view of journalism, but aren't editors supposed to stick up for their reporters?

Posted by: Shem on March 27, 2003 02:51 PM



From pacos_gal in Flash 68:

Today I received a personal email that contained this news "the services have asked older retired people (such as her husband) to go back, not to go to war, but to fill places here in the states". That is from the spouse of a retired colonel.

Obviously this needs corroboration. Veterans, can you find us any through friends or family?

This does bring up a question:

If the continental United States (or our foreign bases) were to be drained of arms and armed services personnel by sending them to a distant foreign war, would we become vulnerable to an outside attack?

We have other enemies besides terrorists.

Posted by: Peter Shriner on March 27, 2003 02:52 PM



off of Scott Rosenberg's blog on salon.com: "Counterattack? As far as I can tell from reading CNN AND THE EXCELLENT RUNNING REPORTS FROM SEAN-PAUL KELLEY AT AGONIST.ORG, it seems there are currently two Iraqi counterattacks going on simultaneously: . . . "

[I added the all caps]

Keep up the great work.

Posted by: tammy on March 27, 2003 02:52 PM



off of Scott Rosenberg's blog on salon.com: "Counterattack? As far as I can tell from reading CNN AND THE EXCELLENT RUNNING REPORTS FROM SEAN-PAUL KELLEY AT AGONIST.ORG, it seems there are currently two Iraqi counterattacks going on simultaneously: . . . "

[I added the all caps]

Keep up the great work.

Posted by: tammy on March 27, 2003 02:53 PM




i saw footage of the second apache on bbc and it looked identical to the first one. there appeared to be no damage. i suspect iraqi tv is recycling.

Posted by: oldgrad on March 27, 2003 02:53 PM



About blowing up those bridges...

How important are they? I mean, are there other ways to cross so it makes blowing them up futile? Anybody know the region?

Would be the only eplanation that makes sense to me - the marines could as easily cross somplace else....

Posted by: kachumbali on March 27, 2003 02:53 PM



reporter disappeared? could be hes gone off on his own

alex
www.geocities.com/the_leaking_pen/
www.variousthings.net

Posted by: alex on March 27, 2003 02:54 PM



Anyone else wondering about some of the Iraqi mis-steps so far?
- NOT blowing up bridges as they retreat when they have the chance
- NOT flooding the river valleys near Iraq with water from dammed reservoirs in the North
- NOT using SA-18 weapons against that Apache attack that was repulsed a couple of days ago.

Can't say about the bridges, but it seems as though that was never in the plan. The river flooding could still happen, but the threat was that it would flood the roads with refugees and stall the Anglo-American armies. Creating refugees, though, is something the various propaganda sources--INC, etc., were suggesting. These are the same sources who supposedly advised the upper strategists that they would be immediately seen as liberators. Repulsing the Apache attack using light weapons was an act of disciplined anti-aircraft work: zone firing from nested automatics and a few RPG's. No failure, there.


Posted by: Brian C.B. on March 27, 2003 02:54 PM



Well, then, American civilians would find out what the slogan "freedom isn't free" means, I imagine...

You know, that has always bugged me a little - the way that slogan gets thrown in your face when you question any military operation. "Freedom isn't free." Like ordinary Americans couldn't make these kind of sacrifices, only the military. All I can say is, "Flight 93, baby."

Posted by: Ellen on March 27, 2003 02:55 PM



Labberdasher, you can get the launcher for $1700, and the missile round for $575.

www.pmulcahy.com/russian_sams.html

www.pmulcahy.com/sam_rounds.html

Buy early and buy often.

Posted by: sombrehombre on March 27, 2003 02:55 PM



Labberdasher, you can get the launcher for $1700, and the missile round for $575.

If I were the Iraqi leadership, I would have bought hundreds of thousands of these things.

Posted by: Haider on March 27, 2003 02:57 PM



The link to the company about the sa-18's only appears to sell PARTS, not the full blown weapon. They also seem to sell parts for many other Russian made weapons.

Posted by: Flemdogg on March 27, 2003 02:57 PM



maybe it's payback for all those stinger we gave the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan?

Heh.

I'm prepared to be completely wrong on this, but my understanding is that Iraq wasn prevented from, or at least strongly restricted in, buying new arms after the first Gulf War in 1991- the SA18 was only first sold for export by the Russians in the post-Cold War collapse of their defense industry in 1993/94 or so...

Though, as you correctly say, there's no telling who sold them, if the reports are true, to the Iraqis.

Posted by: PreachyPreach on March 27, 2003 02:58 PM



so, I call TAOS industries....the are out of AL here in the USA....and GREAT NEWS!
they SHIP OVERSEAS!

fork.

Posted by: amorphous on March 27, 2003 03:00 PM



Editor and Publisher is now reporting
that the missing Christian Science Monitor
reporter was escorted out of Iraq for
revealing troop locations.

Posted by: tom on March 27, 2003 03:00 PM



dt re: missteps. (sorry for length)

I've been pondering this myself! The Iraqis made huge mistakes; fortunately for them the attack was so small most of them have been forgiven. The 3rd ID abandoned an Nasariyah after they took it, the eastern spearhead got turned to an Nasariyah and let the forces NW of Basra escape encirclement.

There are two parts to the answer -- first, their regular army is poorly trained and of questionable loyalty, and special ops may have saved bridges etc. The second, and less promising part of this is that our forces are still fighting against their holding actions; the well trained and well armed troops have for the most part not been engaged.

They may be waiting to blow the dams when it wont trap their own troops. That's what I'd do if I was an evil doer. :)

All that euphoria over the progress of the 3rd ID was over ground they decided (correctly, IMHO) not to defend. They want Karbala, al Kut, al Basra and an Nasariyah, and so far they have them in play, even though the RG is only in strength at al Kut out of all those targets.

Our blitz (and the void behind the speartips) went west of the Euphrates and the Iraqi commanders are probably pefectly happy with that. They are losing antique tanks and poorly trained conscripts in all those skirmishes. Look at the fighting outside al Basra: regular army troops using T-55 tanks. Imagine the US Army swinging into action with Shermans and you get the idea.

Posted by: colereux on March 27, 2003 03:01 PM



Re: the unconfirmed 2nd downed Apache.

If anyone has a tape or captures of the 1st downed apache, please look at the right wing's rocket pod. The tape of the 2nd shows that the inner ring of 2.75 rockets were fired before the downing... I believe this would be good confirmation or proof to refute its a seperate incident. The weather and topographic conditions look very similiar to the first Apache.

Posted by: jon on March 27, 2003 03:01 PM



"Pentagon becomes angry at a non-embedded reporter. He then disappears."

Um, don't you think this would be better phrased as:

Idiot reporter provides so much location information that even dumb CNN hostess realizes he's putting troops at risk. Military rightly silences his *ss, hopefully locking him up for duration of hostilities.

I like the factual stuff on this site, but I fear it's starting to slant a bit toward the al J. "point of view".

Posted by: doug on March 27, 2003 03:01 PM



Pardon on those last links, evidently an equipment price list for a post WWIII role-playing game (ala Dungeons and Dragons). Might be a useful primer for our future.

Posted by: sombrehombre on March 27, 2003 03:01 PM



While the T-55s are antiquated in design (dumped on the Iraqis by the Chinese), the Iraqis have modified them with updated front and rear armor, 160mm mortars, and 105mm main guns. Gotta love Soviet spares via the United Arab Emirates.

I've always wanted to be in the "Import-Export" business.

-s

Posted by: sashae on March 27, 2003 03:03 PM



See the numbers - who exports more arms than everybody else combined?

Pray for all the victims, thank you!

Posted by: George on March 27, 2003 03:03 PM



The airlines were in lousy financial shape before the war. It makes me kind of mad that it looks like they are going to get several billion more dollars from the federal government. After 9/11 it was understandable, their business was so directly affected by something I really can't blame them for. Even though it was really unfair that laid off airline workers received no relief.

There are a lot of industries that are being hurt by the weak economy. I have a lot of friends and a few relatives that are having a hard time finding work. It just makes me really mad that the airlines can cut in front of the line and get a special aid package. Why not spend that several billion dollars on something that would create some good jobs and do something useful for the public. Or not spend the money and keep the deficit down a little bit.

Posted by: TCM on March 27, 2003 03:04 PM



Special thanks for keeping us informed about the independent reporters and Arab media. I am a little surprised by how completely the Pentagon has integrated the major news agencies (especially CNN) into its efforts. There is a real issue surfacing about the role of the media in democracies during war--especially a preemptive war launched on these new and unusual and controversial grounds. Are the media still free and independent of state control? In what respects? And a real issue, too, about the Arab media. No easy answers here. But your reporting on the media is an essential part of your war blogging. Thanks!

Posted by: Jim on March 27, 2003 03:05 PM



please tell me that the Allies wouldn't start to eliminate journalists

No.

I won't tell you that.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:05 PM



Loud blasts on MSNBC view of Baghdad just now.

Posted by: Cynthia on March 27, 2003 03:05 PM



Just a comment on the napalm news bit...

I tend to suspect that "napalm" is used in the field more as a generic term for "stuff that air force guys drop that makes big explosions", than for "canisters of jellied gasoline". I'm note sure what tactical advantage napalm could possibly provide in open areas in this day and age.

Posted by: BigD on March 27, 2003 03:07 PM



anyone know if the drone was recon fitted or loaded with hellfire???


alex
www.geocities.com/the_leaking_pen/
www.variousthings.net

Posted by: alex on March 27, 2003 03:08 PM



A rather graphic account of U.S. soldiers coming under fire (from evacuated wounded) -

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/27/international/worldspecial/27CND-WOUND.html

Posted by: Ellen on March 27, 2003 03:09 PM



Offtopic: 9/11 comission ONCE again does not get funding.

Via hesiod over at counterspin.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,437267,00.html

Posted by: terry on March 27, 2003 03:10 PM




Big explosion in Baghdad - right now on CNN.

Posted by: BWH on March 27, 2003 03:10 PM



There was a report two days ago that during a seizure of a bridge in the neighborhood of Karbala, tanks and APCs (I don't know how many) were permitted across, and then the bridge was blown by the Iraqis. There may be a tiny bridgehead for the 3rd ID being resupplied by boat or helo as we speak.

Posted by: sombrehombre on March 27, 2003 03:10 PM



RE: "It's not so much the war causing the airlines a world of hurt. It's the unions causing the airlines a world of hurt."

WHAT? SouthWest is unionized and has 29 consecutive years of profits. The bigger carriers have been hurting for years. Let'em fold.

Posted by: MrS on March 27, 2003 03:12 PM



Is anyone really so surprised to learn that the Syrian and Iraqi military inventories are predominantly Soviet? Both were in the Soviet "sphere of influence", so it is only natural they would use Soviet hardware.

No one should be surprised to learn that Iraq has SA-18s, but that does not mean they were sold by the Russian government, nor even with the Russian government's (tacit or otherwise) approval.

How many Stingers are missing from US military inventory? Not all of them were sold by Ollie North.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:13 PM



I think Saddam is going to make himself the ultimate suicide bomber. he'll draw us in close and then maybe detonate a nuke, or maybe blow the bridges after we're across them, trying to trap our forces. The rules in any fight are - even if you can't win, be sure to do as much damage as possible.

Posted by: HB on March 27, 2003 03:14 PM



Excellent analysis of the loss of
the The AH-64D Apache Longbow (with
capture of airmen) here:

http://www.sftt.org/

cursor down to:

Apache Down: What’s in a Picture?

"Again, the media imagery alone in this
incident tells a fascinating story to those
who can recognize the details. The details
don’t just tell an interesting and factual
story: In this case and others, they reveal
a deficiency."

Posted by: tailor on March 27, 2003 03:14 PM



The best part of that SA-18 site is their nav icons at the bottom are from the classic game "Command & Conquer" I guess aren't making enough on arms sales to hire a graphic designer.

Posted by: Ricky on March 27, 2003 03:14 PM



Reuters: Al Jazeera shows two Kenyan truck drivers detained as POW by Iraqi authorities:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/030327/80/dwelj.html

Posted by: Claude B. on March 27, 2003 03:16 PM



Good Comments Colereux! The moves that seem crazy, like the breakout from Bazra and the 1000 vehicle assault from Baghdad are smokescreens. They are going to fight in the cities. They learned that much from GW1. All of the enthusiasm for the rapid approach (sort of) to Baghdad is misplaced. The mechanized stuff they throw at us is just cannon fodder. This heavy equipment is going to be useless in urban combat. They are going to force us to destroy it rather than abandon it. My guess is that is what they are doing with a lot of the Jihadies that have been arriving. "Keep your lousy truck bomb, I have a tank!" No right now things are going according to the Iraqi script. You have to aknowlege that they successfully countered our opening move. This is where we learn about the competance of our generals. Someone in our organization expected this if not the civilians at the pentagon. We will soon see what our general counter to their tactic of fighting in the cities is. Let's hope it isn't to pretend that nothing has change and push ahead with the original plan.

P.S. To invest is to surround with troops and seal the bloody place off. (someone asked about that earilier)

Posted by: SW on March 27, 2003 03:17 PM



From the Globe and Mail: They also have a photo...

"Near the southern Iraq city of Nasiriyah, more than 35 U.S. marines were injured, two seriously, in an accidental exchange of fire between American units, according to reporters for French and British media who were with the marines. ITV correspondent James Mates said two groups of marines were dispatched during the night to repel an Iraqi contingent, but ended up firing at each other."

Anybody else heard of this?


Posted by: Robin on March 27, 2003 03:17 PM



I just read on a German site that the 101st Airborne Division called two of it's camps after big oil firms...

"Forward Operating Base Shell" and "Forward Operating Base Exxon"...

Must have been a PR leak in the Army

Posted by: kachumbali on March 27, 2003 03:18 PM



Both were in the Soviet "sphere of influence", so it is only natural they would use Soviet hardware.

Iraq got hardware and 'software' (manpower etc.) from both sides. His army was outfitted from both sides, and a whole lot of European countries. I think it is easier to count the countries which did not sell weapons to them.

Posted by: Haider on March 27, 2003 03:19 PM



I knew I'd seen this somewhere: However, deputy director Leonid Roshal told Russia's Gazeta newspaper that the anti-tank missiles had been sold to Syria.(BBC).

Another reference I'm looking makes the slightest mention of a time when there was nearly unregulated distribution of Russian arms world-wide. It doesn't explain the GPS spoofers or night vision goggles, but the SA-18's would probably fall in there. I'm searching for that one. It was shortly after the fall of the CCCP.

Posted by: N. Lee Meadows on March 27, 2003 03:19 PM



It would be very nice if Delta got a nice chunk of those billions of government dollars. They must be hurting after the executives took $17.5 million in bonuses and then used $25.5 to secure their executive pensions at the end of last year. That after laying off 16,000, losing 1.3 billion, and lettng the stock lose 58.6 percent of its value.

Posted by: gttim on March 27, 2003 03:19 PM



Tactically, the Iraqis have certainly not proven themselves to be particularly able

Do not make the mistake of applying the lessons of Gulf War, Part Un to Gulf War, Part Deux.

The Iraqis have thus far proven themselves to be quite tactically capable. They have not buried their tanks in the sand, and are not afraid to go out into the open to engage coalition ground forces.. this despite opposing air supremacy.

As for those bridges, I am more and more becoming convinced it was a big tactical gamble designed to look like a bungle. The Iraqi high command seems to have entered into a battle of attrition, on the assumption that they can wear down coalition in-theater troops before sufficient reinforcements arrive to make a difference.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:21 PM



Another huge blast via MSNBC just now...

Posted by: Cynthia on March 27, 2003 03:23 PM



3:23 EST The U.S. State Department is standing by Paul Celluci, the envoy to Canada who recently expressed disappointment with that country's opposition to the war in Iraq and warned of "short-term" damage to U.S.-Canadian relations. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Celluci had spoken with the full authority of the department and Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Way to keep friends! Seems there will soon be another country called 'Freedom'...

Posted by: Haider on March 27, 2003 03:24 PM



found in a blog, this heard on SKY news:

"Umm Qasr is a town similar to Southampton", UK Defence Minister Geoff Hoon told the House of Commons yesterday. "He's either never been to Southampton, or he's never been to Umm Qasr", said one British soldier, informed of this while on patrol in Umm Qasr. Another added: "There's no beer, no prostitutes, and people are shooting at us. It's more like Portsmouth."

Posted by: MahaC on March 27, 2003 03:25 PM



Perhaps the lost drone is the same unmanned plane that Al Jazeera reported as crashing into a house earlier in the day and reported here in flash 67 by Rima.

Posted by: War Monitor on March 27, 2003 03:25 PM



please tell me that the Allies wouldn't start to eliminate journalists.

Of course not. That's Ashcroft's job.

Posted by: Brian C.B. on March 27, 2003 03:25 PM



kachumbali - there was some discussion of this a few flashes back - apparently these are literally 'gas stations', refueling points for the troops.

Posted by: jp on March 27, 2003 03:26 PM



"Someone, please tell me that the Allies wouldn't start to eliminate journalists."

I am wondering about that. There's no doubt they would eliminate the journalism itself. In Afghanistan they bombed Al-Jazeera. They are limited by the fact that whatever dirt tricks they pull will quite possibly be public knowledge in 10 years time. (by "public" I don't mean Joe FoxNews watcher of course).

Posted by: DavidByron on March 27, 2003 03:27 PM



"...and warned of "short-term" damage to U.S.-Canadian relations."

Forget the freedom fries. Time to boycott Celene Dion!!! Canada out of Las Vegas!!

Posted by: Fitzwillie on March 27, 2003 03:27 PM



davidbyron, do you have a source on that al-jazeera bombing ?

Posted by: jp on March 27, 2003 03:28 PM



envoy to Canada who recently expressed disappointment with that country's opposition to the war

I began a rather long tirade about this item. I accept in advance the gratitude all of you that I chose to delete it :)

I will say, however, if this is the official attitude of the government of the United States, then Canada's ambassador in Washington should be "recalled for consultation" which, in case you don't know, is a *very* strong diplomatic statement.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:28 PM



actually, they named the camps after the gas stations run by those companies, because those two camps were resupply gas stations for vehicles. i find it funny and appropriate.

alex
www.geocities.com/the_leaking_pen/
www.variousthings.net

Posted by: alex on March 27, 2003 03:29 PM



Of course not. That's Ashcroft's job.

I thought he is touring Italy, Greece and 'Freedom' trying to cover up all these naked statues...

Posted by: Haider on March 27, 2003 03:29 PM



thanx...

Posted by: kachumbali on March 27, 2003 03:29 PM



Re: Canadian - U.S. relations

I don't know what this 'envoy' business is; Celluci is the U.S. ambassador to Canada (surely they haven't severed formal diplomatic relations).

Also was second-to-last Massachusetts governor (prior to Jane Swift).

Posted by: Jason Kelly on March 27, 2003 03:30 PM



Jeez... Are we supposed to be re-assured by the fact that Celluci wasn't freelancing? So we are going to punish Canada? We better be careful. They may decide that it is in their best interest to react pre-emptively!

Posted by: SW on March 27, 2003 03:30 PM



Here's the interview Phil Smucker gave. Is it the troubling one?
http://www.theconnection.org/shows/2003/03/20030324_a_main.asp

Posted by: esther lee on March 27, 2003 03:31 PM



Haven't had a chance to read through all the comments yet, so forgive me if I repeat someone else. Since the Rest Of the World (ROW) is pretty much against the US invasion of Iraq, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see all kinds of weapons coming in to the Iraqis. I wouldn't even be a bit surprised if Saddam's jets were to fly in from Iran at a certain strategic moment.

It is going to be a long, hot summer.

Posted by: Chris Vail on March 27, 2003 03:31 PM



only appears to sell PARTS, not the full blown weapon.

Curiously, if you buy enough parts, you may be able to assemble a complete weapon.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:31 PM



More on Cellucci. Saw this last night and got a bit of a shock (And I'm Canadian!):


Liberal caucus considered expelling U.S. ambassador

This is local (Vancouver) CBC, and wasn't picked up by the CBC nationally. This is closed door cabinet stuff... I take it from this that a number of Liberal MPs are REALLY miffed at the US.. Probably why the Canadian Government isn't saying all that much.

I can't see us realistically expelling the US Ambassador. But I think it's fair to say that Canada is just as frustrated with the US as the US is with Canada.

Posted by: Trevor on March 27, 2003 03:31 PM



actually, they named the camps after the gas stations run by those companies, because those two camps were resupply gas stations for vehicles. i find it funny and appropriate.

I find it silly and obnoxious, considering that it will only feed the paranoia of many in that region as to our motives.

Posted by: Cheez Whiz on March 27, 2003 03:31 PM



You go, MrS! I am booking Southwest tickets as we type, war or no war. They have their act together.

Posted by: Mama Paka on March 27, 2003 03:32 PM



you mean the Montreal Canadiens won't wait for the face-off ?

Posted by: jp on March 27, 2003 03:33 PM



Someone posted the following German quote on a previous comment thread:

"Alle sind gegen Deutschland, aber nur aus Neid." (All are against Germany, but only from envy.)

Can anyone source this? Google is no help, at least on that combination of words. Could it be a slight misquote?

Posted by: Geheimbundler on March 27, 2003 03:34 PM



Now the US is upset with the Russians for supplying military gear?

The US is upset with France for attempting a diplomatic solution.

The US is upset with Canada for not supporting the coalition.

Solution:
No French wine.
No Whistler ski trip.
NO Russian caviar.

Is there anything a regular can do? Oh... pay more taxes to the rich oligarchy and supply the military with warm bodies. I see...

Posted by: JayBlazerFan on March 27, 2003 03:35 PM



If Canada can't figure out that the Bush administration isn't happy with their position nor what seems like the constant snide comments by their government officals then they fooling themselves.

If they don't except the adminstrations to be less interested in dealing with Canada they are naive.


Posted by: Devlin on March 27, 2003 03:35 PM




Here's another gem from Yahoo News -

British soldiers scavenging Iraqi boots (from abandoned Iraqi positions)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=1514&e=18&u=/afp/20030327/wl_mideast_afp/iraq_war_britain_boots_1

Posted by: BWH on March 27, 2003 03:36 PM



Boucher boosts Celluci's courageous condemnation of Canadians: Craven Canadian Curs are expected to act like Bush's British Bitch Blair.

Posted by: Dick Durata on March 27, 2003 03:36 PM



I have been checking around for news on the earlier story about the UN press release posted here earlier. Not surprising that it's not easilty found at CNN.com, but I was dismayed that guardian.co.uk didn't have an article....

Posted by: Elvis Microsoft on March 27, 2003 03:37 PM



A tragic story:'

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030327-73728048.htm

Posted by: LJ on March 27, 2003 03:37 PM



a) Madison, Alabama is a suburb of Huntsville, home of Redstone Arsenal and various NASA facilities.

b) Paul Cellucci is not just "an envoy"; he is the US Ambassador to Canada. Presumably, when he opens his mouth, he speaks for the administration.

Posted by: Jeff Carroll on March 27, 2003 03:37 PM



I've been pondering this myself!

excellent analysis, colereux, though I might question your estimate of current loyalty and reliability of Iraqi regulars; I believe them to be much higher than previously thought.

Does anyone know if Iraq has any T-80s in its inventory? I know the Republican Guard (and perhaps some elements of the regular army) has T-72s, and these have been seen in some actions. If Iraq has T-80s, they are holding them in reserve.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:38 PM



JP, you haven't heard about the U.S. bombing al-Jazeera? Quick! Before it goes down the memory hole!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1653887.stm

Posted by: dack on March 27, 2003 03:38 PM



it's occasionally mentioned on sky news, but several iraqi troops were in chechnya. some of the tactics they're using now were first utilised there.

that also makes it seem unlikely that russia was officially giving iraq weapons. one wonders if the chechan rebels were bartering for the iraqi soldiers' assistance...

Posted by: kevin lyda on March 27, 2003 03:38 PM



If the "world order" is really as fragile as it appears, then maybe this is a well-deserved shake-up.

Posted by: Willie Peck on March 27, 2003 03:38 PM



Sean-Paul,

Thank you for having no opinion on the war. I appreciate the work you are doing, and will donate money to support your work.

If you decide to continue a similar effort on another topic after the Iraq war is over, I think that you will continue to be successful if you attempt to be as objective as possible.

I am reluctantly in favor of what the US and UK are doing in Iraq, but nonetheless I find the pro-war bias of a Fox News to be an insult to my intelligence...

JMHO

Posted by: Oblomov on March 27, 2003 03:39 PM



Southampton has a population of a little over 200,000 - NOT 4000. Or 5000. Really it doesn't make sense that a country's only port would be the size of a hamlet. Just how big is Umm Qasr really and why, if it isn't tiny, were we told it was?

Posted by: DavidByron on March 27, 2003 03:39 PM



Interative map of Iraq (Deutsch)

Link will open in new window

Posted by: kobi on March 27, 2003 03:40 PM



thanks.. not surprising that one wasn't on the CBS evening news..

Posted by: jp on March 27, 2003 03:40 PM



There is a very pronounced difference between being "less interested in dealing with" another government and actively trying (futiley in all likihood) to punish them for disagreeing.

Posted by: SW on March 27, 2003 03:42 PM



Not that I frequent CNN but this just came up:
CIA warned irregular Iraqi forces could pose threat

I noticed that since the reporter said something to the general at the briefing Tuesday night something along the line of "I thought this wasn't going to be a propaganda meeting... where are the pictures of the ones that missed?" they've been a lot more open about bad news. Not completely, but moreso.

Posted by: N. Lee Meadows on March 27, 2003 03:43 PM



BigD, napalm (the real stuff) dropped on a battlefield will ruin your whole day, in any day and age.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:44 PM



Isn't Canada our #1 supplier of petroleum? At least the U.S.'s transportation costs would be low if we have to wage a "war for oil" with Canada....

http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw246.shtml

Posted by: Christian V on March 27, 2003 03:44 PM



About those Boots...

The ABC-Unit of the Bundeswehr had the same problem with their boots...they desintegrated in the hot desert enviroment because the soles are glued to the shoe...and apparently the glue starts liquifying at higher temperatures...as commonly found in the desert...

And they call themselves "Desert Rats"...

Posted by: kachumbali on March 27, 2003 03:44 PM



About those Boots...

The ABC-Unit of the Bundeswehr had the same problem with their boots...they desintegrated in the hot desert enviroment because the soles are glued to the shoe...and apparently the glue starts liquifying at higher temperatures...as commonly found in the desert...

And they call themselves "Desert Rats"...

Posted by: kachumbali on March 27, 2003 03:44 PM



The Iraqis have no (known) T-80 tanks, but have modified their T-72s to more modern spec with Soviet parts, creating a hybrid T-72 known as "The Lion of Babylon." This tank features an enlarged main gun, night vision capability, and increased front and rear armor.

Of course, the Iraqis are probably burying them again, and the 'improved' tanks still have nothing on the DU-armored M1A1 "Heavy" tanks.

-s

Posted by: sashae on March 27, 2003 03:45 PM



JP, you haven't heard about the U.S. bombing al-Jazeera? Quick! Before it goes down the memory hole!

I am wondering when Dish is going to take it off the air.

Perhaps the lost drone is the same unmanned plane that Al Jazeera reported as crashing into a house earlier in the day and reported here in flash 67 by Rima.

I think it is. I try to tranlate but I am not as good at getting army unit names or weapons.

Posted by: Rima on March 27, 2003 03:45 PM



"The BBC is reporting that the Iraqis are not doing what they were supposed to be doing according to pre-war gaming by military officials. "

HEAVENS FORFEND!

Posted by: tittergrrl on March 27, 2003 03:45 PM



Alle sind gegen Deutschland, aber nur aus Neid." (All are against Germany, but only from envy.)

Can anyone source this? Google is no help, at least on that combination of words. Could it be a slight misquote?

The best I found was Bismarck.

Posted by: Haider on March 27, 2003 03:45 PM



The BBC is reporting that the Iraqis are not doing what they were supposed to be doing according to pre-war gaming by military officials.

Gee, it only took them 8 days to figure this out?

Chalk up another warscoop for the Agonist.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:45 PM



well, at least we can always rely on venezuela.. or, uh maybe not. bye bye artic wilderness.

Posted by: jp on March 27, 2003 03:46 PM



"3:43 EST The BBC is reporting that the Iraqis are not doing what they were supposed to be doing according to pre-war gaming by military officials."

Priceless. What folly. How did these fools end up in charge of this mess ?

Posted by: Canuckistan on March 27, 2003 03:47 PM



bummer was hoping to be the first to pop inwith witiscism (sp?) on the bbc report


3:43 EST The BBC is reporting that the Iraqis are not doing what they were supposed to be doing according to pre-war gaming by military officials.


guess they forgot to tell the iraqis how they were susposed to play

Posted by: hutch on March 27, 2003 03:49 PM



I now have ABSOLUTELY NO OPINION

Fair and balanced, eh? ;-)

Seriously though, thanks for the great job.

Posted by: nofundy on March 27, 2003 03:50 PM



Regarding the Iraqis not doing what they were supposed to: anyone remember this from last year? The military ran a war game as a practice for an Iraq invasion -- and the retired general who handled the "Iraqi" side ran them "too well," so they had to stop the game and restart it, disallowing certain tactics, so they could come out with the right result.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,787017,00.html

Posted by: Shem on March 27, 2003 03:50 PM



3:43 EST The BBC is reporting that the Iraqis are not doing what they were supposed to be doing according to pre-war gaming by military officials."

Priceless. What folly. How did these fools end up in charge of this mess ?

Posted by Canuckistan at March 27, 2003 03:47 PM


some of us voted for them, or at least for the people that put them in charge.

alex

Posted by: alex on March 27, 2003 03:50 PM




I seem to recall the commander of the "iraqi" forces in the war simulation exercises was fired for repeatedly defeating the coalition side. I suppose he was replaced by someone who could lose. This is clearly not a MENSA organization we are talking about here.

Posted by: Canuckistan on March 27, 2003 03:51 PM



Does the Iraqi miltary have airplanes or helicopters or anything? I'm sure I've missed plenty of news but I've read a lot also and have only heard of coalition planes, etc.

Posted by: skcole on March 27, 2003 03:51 PM



http://www.moveon.org/mediacorps/
Join the MoveOn Media Corps
moveon needs people particularly in the states who have some time to volunteer for: American media outlets have chosen to stifle or simply not show the most terrible and saddening aspects of this war. They are reluctant to air the voices of critics who are raising important questions about its effectiveness and purpose. And they appear to have acceded to the Bush Administration's desire to black out pictures or footage of civilian casualties.

We need to demand the full picture. The MoveOn Media Corps is a group of committed MoveOn volunteers who will mobilize to push the media to fairly cover this war. The action ideas we send you won't generally take longer than 15 minutes, but to be part of the Corps we ask that you commit to taking up to one action per day. The actions could include calling media outlets when they air especially bad coverage, pushing Clear Channel radio to stop censoring anti-war songs, or writing letters to the editor.

maybe some of the commentors have some time...

Posted by: birgit on March 27, 2003 03:52 PM



I read of "suicide attacks" by Iraqis against Marine columns. The Marines handle them, but they are impressed that the Iraqis keep coming until they are all killed or incapacitated. This doesn't seem a wise use of manpower, but that isn't my concern. My concern is that we are putting 200,000 Americans cheek-by-jowl with what seems to be a rather rich recruiting pool for suicide bombers for the foreseeable future.

Posted by: Brian C.B. on March 27, 2003 03:52 PM



I've looked over all the comments made by Celluci and never once did he say the United States would punish Canada. He

He was asked something along the lines of will there be an economic fall out and he said we'll have to see. He said that in the short term the relationship had been damaged but in the longer term it is repairable.


Hardly the words of someone try to tell Canada they are going to get punished.


Canada has to figure that when they want to discuss the problem in softwood lumber and other things they are going to find the Bush adminstration is engaged in more important problems.

Posted by: Devlin on March 27, 2003 03:52 PM



"Time to boycott Celene Dion!!!"

Take her.

Keep her.

Please.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:52 PM




That was it Shem.
Mental note: I'll try and get facts and links before spouting off :)

Posted by: Canuckistan on March 27, 2003 03:53 PM



re: usa ambassador to canada expresses dismay with canadian position on iraq

canada has misplayed this brutally - canadian ships (i think 4) are currently in the mideast region for interdiction/patrolling and infantry was in afghanistan in 2002 (suffering from USAF friendly fire) and there's a new commitment to put more infantry back into afghan for july03 - and yet canada gets slammed for not supporting war on terror - not much *in* the defence cupboard in canada, so what more could canada do?? canadian politicians incompetent on this one - canadian trade (both ways) is too crucial for the usa to turn it off, but it's just stupid to wave at an angry bull.... - that being said, i think that canada's waffling on iraq is more about a provincial election here (quebec, apr14) and our federal liberal party adopting a posture that will aid the provincial liberals in that contest (quebeckers love usa tourists but love to hate usa govt policy - weird dichotomy)

Posted by: mcgillicuddy on March 27, 2003 03:53 PM



here's a link to Negroponte's walkout of the Security Council meeting:


http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/03/27/un_us030327

Posted by: JP on March 27, 2003 03:54 PM



http://www.msnbc.com/news/891142.asp?0sl=-11

Bush tightens document secrecy rules

Delays automatic declassification for more than three years

All sides seem to differ on whether this is good or bad news.


Posted by: Sparky on March 27, 2003 03:55 PM



Re: Canada.

When do we start seeing Revolution Bacon on the shelves?

Posted by: tittergrrl on March 27, 2003 03:56 PM



3:43 EST The BBC is reporting that the Iraqis are not doing what they were supposed to be doing according to pre-war gaming by military officials.

Well this is not new for the US

Posted by: Haider on March 27, 2003 03:56 PM



Just wondering who is next? Our economy is definately suffering. Who to blame??
**********

Department store chain Sears, Roebuck & Co. has announced plans to cut an unspecified number of jobs from its headquarters in Hoffman Estates, Ill., over the next few months. The company's same-store sales have fallen for the last 18 consecutive months, and Sears has recently run into problems its credit card business. The retailer announced this week it is "evaluating strategic alternatives" for its credit card unit, including possibly putting it up for sale. Sources estimate the company could receive as much as $6 billion to $7 billion for its credit card operation, roughly the current market value of the entire company.

Posted by: Shameon Themedia on March 27, 2003 03:56 PM



The "enemy" commander in that excercise was General Van Riper, an acidic Marine iconoclast. He kept getting "they wouldn't really do that" kind of complaints, ie, they wouldn't use the mosque loudspeaker systems to spread orders using keywords, they wouldn't use fishing boats as suicide torpedoes, they wouldn't issue a deceptive set of orders by radio and genuine orders using boys on motorbikes...etc.

He wasn't fired, but he complained a lot. The excercise was kept going because that really was the right decision, after you get that many people in the works.

Posted by: Brian C.B. on March 27, 2003 03:57 PM



Trevor,

wasn't picked up by the CBC nationally


actually it was on the CBC main website last night. It has gone of the front page now, because so much is happening, but it was there when I went to bed 0400 (approx) CST this morning.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 03:57 PM



My concern is that we are putting 200,000 Americans cheek-by-jowl with what seems to be a rather rich recruiting pool for suicide bombers for the foreseeable future.

It also makes the cynics among us wonder why we're trying to save a country whose population seems determined to die by driving their buses headfirst into tanks.

I'm not one of those cynics -- I happen to take a more optimisic view of human nature -- but I am curious about the emphasis on "martyrdom" in Arab culture -- especially recently. I understand that the Tamil Tigers were the first to start these sorts of attacks and the Palestinians picked them up as tools of "resistance" -- but I'm curious and would like more detail why these sorts of attacks are now a big part of Arab culture and the Arab mindset.

And, no, I don't believe that catch-all that 'Arabs have no other choice' or 'We're forcing them into this.' A martyrdom attack is a choice -- you can either blow yourself up and die or not blow yourself up and live -- but I'm wondering, for example, why in the 1850s you didn't have American slaves wiring themselves with gunpowder and exploding on plantations.

I'm wondering why occupied frenchmen didn't strap explosives on their belts and simply walk up to Germans in the streets in Paris and blow themselves up. Yes, there was a resistence there, and yes it quite robust, but why no martyrdom attacks? Why not preach the idea that life has no value when you're oppressed? Why is this now -- especially now -- such a uniquely Arab thing?

Posted by: Willie Peck on March 27, 2003 03:59 PM



Now Canada is being criticized by these clowns? Oh, good Lord in heaven, spare us. What did we do to deserve this administration? I'm sorry, I'll shut up now.

Posted by: Ellen on March 27, 2003 03:59 PM



Phil Carter has some good things to say about wargames and expectations in Iraq. Scroll down about 3-4 posts.

http://www.philcarter.blogspot.com/

Posted by: Henry Shieh on March 27, 2003 04:01 PM



That would be typical of the track record of this administration. Thoughtlessly make an enemy of the single largest supplier to this country of petroleum (yeah, that is Canada) so oil prices can be forced even higher. The White House got spanked in Venezuela when they repeatedly tried to engineer the ouster of that democratically elected government (who are now calling for an oil boycott of the US), so why not mess things up what may be the last friendly face we have in our neighborhood.

Posted by: stumpy on March 27, 2003 04:02 PM



Raven:

"excellent analysis, colereux, though I might question your estimate of current loyalty and reliability of Iraqi regulars; I believe them to be much higher than previously thought."

Loyalty is very easy if you have a fedayeen pointing a gun at your back.

I'd say the Iraqis aren't as poor off as they were in Gulf War I, but they aren't the master strategists people here seem to think they are. Let's be careful not to fall into the trap of "Alliance stoopid, Iraqis smrt".

As for the Iraqi air force, as soon as it appeared in the air, it'd be history. Much as was the case in the first Gulf War.

Posted by: Shawn Pickrell on March 27, 2003 04:03 PM



sean-paul, if you insist on continuing to provide this forum I'm going to end up losing my job. Just take that into consideration. I'll probably have to get my eye prescription changed from the strain as well.

JP

Posted by: jp on March 27, 2003 04:03 PM



There is no doubt that the airline industry is in trouble. And it isn't just "free market forces." And, it certainly has little or nothing to do with the unions.

Travel is down 20% or more since the start of the war. It has been down since 9/11.

Homeland security has put enormous financial burdens on not only the airlines but the states as well and the federal government is asking the travel industry and the states to bear most of the financial burdens while Bush pushes his tax cuts for the rich. The unions have nothing to do with this. The New York City firefighters, the police have all had drastic budget cuts while being expected to perform miracles under the homeland security act. Even those soldiers in Iraq have had their benefits cut. So much for gratitude on the part of the federal government.

So put the blame where it goes....tax cuts for the rich.....the middle finger for the rest of us and that includes the airline industry.

Posted by: Jeanne on March 27, 2003 04:05 PM



The "enemy" commander in that excercise...

That sort of behaviour is perennial. In WW2, the Germans scheduled a war game on the invasion for June 6-8, 1944.

The "allied" commander in those games (I forget who it was) played the game the same way Ike executed the actual landing, and was told that it would never happen.

The arrogant always repeat history, at the expense of the people.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 04:05 PM



There is no doubt that the airline industry is in trouble. And it isn't just "free market forces." And, it certainly has little or nothing to do with the unions.

Travel is down 20% or more since the start of the war. It has been down since 9/11.

Homeland security has put enormous financial burdens on not only the airlines but the states as well and the federal government is asking the travel industry and the states to bear most of the financial burdens while Bush pushes his tax cuts for the rich. The unions have nothing to do with this. The New York City firefighters, the police have all had drastic budget cuts while being expected to perform miracles under the homeland security act. Even those soldiers in Iraq have had their benefits cut. So much for gratitude on the part of the federal government.

So put the blame where it goes....tax cuts for the rich.....the middle finger for the rest of us and that includes the airline industry.

Posted by: Jeanne on March 27, 2003 04:05 PM



There is no doubt that the airline industry is in trouble. And it isn't just "free market forces." And, it certainly has little or nothing to do with the unions.

Travel is down 20% or more since the start of the war. It has been down since 9/11.

Homeland security has put enormous financial burdens on not only the airlines but the states as well and the federal government is asking the travel industry and the states to bear most of the financial burdens while Bush pushes his tax cuts for the rich. The unions have nothing to do with this. The New York City firefighters, the police have all had drastic budget cuts while being expected to perform miracles under the homeland security act. Even those soldiers in Iraq have had their benefits cut. So much for gratitude on the part of the federal government.

So put the blame where it goes....tax cuts for the rich.....the middle finger for the rest of us and that includes the airline industry.

Posted by: Jeanne on March 27, 2003 04:05 PM



I'm not one of those cynics -- I happen to take a more optimisic view of human nature -- but I am curious about the emphasis on "martyrdom" in Arab culture -- especially recently. I understand that the Tamil Tigers were the first to start these sorts of attacks and the Palestinians picked them up as tools of "resistance" -- but I'm curious and would like more detail why these sorts of attacks are now a big part of Arab culture and the Arab mindset.

The first to use this were actually Jews, who used it against Romans (you also find older examples in the Bible), and later against Arabs and Brits in what would become Israel.
It was later adopted by Arabs in Egypt, but not as Suicide attack. Shiaas who already have a special relationship to the death are more likely to use it than Sunnis, but Palestine shows, that even they will use it, if there is no other way. But I really, doubt this news about Iraqi Suicide bombers, since they would be Sunnis, and they are not so desperate now (but may become after longer occupation).

Posted by: Haider on March 27, 2003 04:05 PM



As for the Iraqi air force

Your point being what? I never said "Iraq smart, allies stupid". I never made any statements about Iraqi air capabilities. (In fact, I have mentioned allied air supremacy at least once; I took that one as obvious, but if you feel I need to keep "admitting" it, I will.)

If you believe that fedayin "political officers" within the regular troops are the only thing keeping the regulars going, please feel free to continue to believe that. However, please also find me a URL where I can read that Iraq has enough fedayin to a) force 15 entire divisions not to desert, b) execute all these "nuisance" attacks in coalition rear areas, and c) execute all those attacks against allied strongpoints such as 3 Inf. and whatever Marines are at al Nassiriya.

Finally, neither have I claimed that Iraqi high command is comprised of nothing but master strategists; I have, however, said that they have conducted a brilliant operation thus far, and there is nothing you can do beyond wishful thinking to prove otherwise.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 04:13 PM



i say we launch a preemptive strike on canada. we know they will eventually attack us with WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION at some point in the future.

Posted by: hutch on March 27, 2003 04:14 PM



Re: the nonembedded reporter & use of Iraqi proscribed weapons:

- from linked article, it sounds like the non-embedded "reporter" was less a journalist than a very irresponsible activist trying to make a point - when sensitive details of military operations are carelessly or purposely released, people die.

- it was my understanding that Scuds are proscribed - Iraq has used Scuds - therefore, Iraq has already used proscribed weapons

- by the way, love your site and thank you very much for all your hard work.

Posted by: David on March 27, 2003 04:15 PM



This may already have been posted, but here is a link from the CSM Editor, who defended Phil Smucker's reporting, and noted that he is an experienced journalist on assignment for both the CSM and Daily Telegraph (London). There seems to be legitimate dispute over exactly what data was put out by Smucker to warrant booting out by the Pentagon.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0328/p06s02-woiq.html

Posted by: barrisj on March 27, 2003 04:15 PM



Canada has to figure that when they want to discuss the problem in softwood lumber and other things they are going to find the Bush adminstration is engaged in more important problems.

Perhaps Canada can respond by requiring that our oil, natural gas, and electricity be paid for in Euros.

Posted by: raven on March 27, 2003 04:21 PM



The military ran a war game as a practice for an Iraq invasion -- and the retired general who handled the "Iraqi" side ran them "too well," so they had to stop the game and restart it, disallowing certain tactics, so they could come out with the right result.

If the purpose of the game was to test US tactics against what the Iraqis were expected to do, that seems valid. OTOH, you'd expect someone to have been paying attention and working on the crazy stuff too.

(Apparantly the Japanese did the same with Midway: one of the games involved the Americans having cracked Japanese codes, but the results were dismissed because the premise was too improbable).

Idiot/Savant
http://norightturn.blogspot.com

Posted by: Idiot/Savant on March 27, 2003 04:31 PM



I agree with Raven on many points. If you think the Iraqi response are one-off aberrations, I suggest you review some basic military history.

Thanks for listening (or not, you pick!)...

Posted by: Kelos on March 27, 2003 04:52 PM



re: British soldiers scavenging Iraqi boots (from abandoned Iraqi positions)...

This is from an email sent to me by a British friend on March 21st:

But whilst on this subject it appears that the Brit troops are severely undestocked: their inferior shoes have melted, they are, according to calls they make to their families in the UK 'very hungry' & their facilities are generally those you would expect from a third world army. It's all due to good old Tony Blair making cuts a few years ago not realising he would be committing troops to a war that, frankly, nobody believes will benefit him (unless democracy is brought to Iraq & chemical weapons are discovered).

Maybe they should open some of those aid packages themselves..

Posted by: Buck fush on March 27, 2003 04:55 PM



Love this site.

Re the post on the SA18: This company has been active for at least ten years (or a very similar company from the past). I remember seeing very similar literature very soon after the Berlin Wall came down.

Posted by: csmithi2 on March 27, 2003 05:03 PM



Regarding Midway and wargames, the Naval War College has simmed this battle every semester for years, and has yet to come close to the astonishing American victory. The circumstances and contingencies in May 1942 presented a moment of extraordinary luck or divine providence.

Posted by: sombrehombre on March 27, 2003 05:13 PM



Someone posted the following German quote on a previous comment thread:

"Alle sind gegen Deutschland, aber nur aus Neid." (All are against Germany, but only from envy.)

Can anyone source this? Google is no help, at least on that combination of words. Could it be a slight misquote?

That wasn't a quote per se, but a general feeling among the followers of the ruling party in Nazi Germany.

It's a very effective way to shield yourself from outside criticism. You don't question yourself or the actions of your government anymore, because when voices are raised from abroad you can just say "They envy us because of our Führer / because we are so powerful".

My observation is that some americans are displaying the same kind of sentiment, which I think is a very dangerous thing.

If you want a quote, take these lyrics from Randy Newman; they work along the same line of thinking, although in a US setting:

Let's Drop the Big One

No one likes us,
I don't know why
We may not be perfect
But heaven knows we try.
But all around even our old friends put us down.
Let's drop the big one and see what happens.

We give them money
But are they grateful?
No, they're spiteful
And they're hateful.
They don't respect us so let's surprise them;
We'll drop the big one and pulverize them.

Now Asia's crowded
And Europe's too old.
Africa's far too hot,
And Canada's too cold.
And South America stole our name.
Let's drop the big one;
There'll be no on left to blame us.

We'll save Australia;
Don't wanna hurt no kangaroo.
We'll build an all-American amusement park there;
They've got surfing too!

Well boom goes London
And boom Paris
More room for you
And more room for me.
And every city the whole world round
Will just be another American town.
Oh, how peaceful it'll be;
We'll set everybody free;
You'll have Japanese kimonos, baby,
There'll be Italian shoes for me.
They all hate us anyhow,
So let's drop the big one now.
Let's drop the big one now!

-Randy Newman

Posted by: Felix Deutsch on March 27, 2003 05:55 PM



Hmm.. sounds like Phil Smucker is in quite a jam. :)

Posted by: Sparks on March 27, 2003 06:30 PM



There is a basic flaw in the whole logic of imbedded reporters. I am not sure what it means to be a "reporter" that can only report approved stuff. It seems to me that the military is just getting the media giants to foot the bill for it's PR effort.

Posted by: bill on March 27, 2003 07:03 PM



On the blame-Canada thread...

I was in Toronto two weeks ago, on the University campus, amid people from the government etc. for a week. Their report was that the Bush administration had taken every opportunity for two years to ignore or insult the Canadian government, both directly and in the UN, and then ASSUMED Canada would give full assistance in Iraq.

I expected their would be some resentment about the four Canandian troopers killed by US friendly fire in Afghanistan, but there was none---everyone understood that happens in war.

At present Canada is sending 2,000 troops to Afghanistan---twice their prior commitment and a big deal for the size of their force. The idea is to help relieve US troops for service in Iraq.

They know better than to expect thanks.

Posted by: Stewart Brand on March 27, 2003 07:24 PM



No need to reaffirm that Celluci was speaking officially for the Bush administration. Nobody in Canada assumed otherwise for a millisecond.

Here's an account from the Globe and Mail that gives the significant detail of his talk. The words that really counted as a threat were "Security trumps trade". That's why there were cabinet-level discussions.

But it will all blow over. There have been stiff words exchanged before, but the reality on the ground is that our economies are too intertwined; there is no way a US administration could engage in serious economic hostilities against Canada without damaging the bottom line of some very major American corporations. Even the import/export figures don't tell the whole story -- you also have to look at all the cross-border ownerships.

As for a preventive war, umm, well, grin. To have a war you need the other guy to shoot back. That's not our style; we'd invite you in and offer you a cold beer. You're our cousins... literally our cousins, for a lot of Canadian families. Arguing over the dinner table is one thing, but if you lost your temper and pulled a gun, we'd stay calm and just get Peter Jennings to talk you out of it. (If that didn't work, we'd have to put on a Celine Dion CD!)

Posted by: Canadian Reader on March 27, 2003 07:33 PM



Near the southern Iraq city of Nasiriyah, more than 35 U.S. marines were injured, two seriously, in an accidental exchange of fire between American units

Yes, CNN is reporting it too.

"...and warned of "short-term" damage to U.S.-Canadian relations."

You know, I've been suspicious of Canadians ever since that long-haired pinko f*g Neil Young snuck into the US and joined up with the Crosby, Stills & Nash Coalition ;)

"The US has always been at war with Canada."

Posted by: R.C. Sanders on March 27, 2003 08:19 PM



Van Riper was already retired when he was chosen to command OPFOR in Millenium Challenge. Can't fire a retired LtGen.

Van Riper claims he quit after he was instructed to "make life easier" for US forces. He played it just the way he thought Saddam would operate:

He sent orders with motorcycle couriers to evade sophisticated electronic eavesdropping equipment. When the US fleet sailed into the Gulf, he instructed his small boats and planes to move in apparently aimless circles before launching a surprise attack that sank a substantial part of the US navy. The war game had to be stopped and the US ships "refloated" so that the US forces stood a chance.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/08/21/1029114133889.html

Posted by: R.C. Sanders on March 27, 2003 08:29 PM






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