Real Player and Windows Media running at the same time
This is a WILD crowd!

British fatality confirmed near Al Zubayf, south of Basra. This is near Umm Qasr, still in the general proximity of the Kuwaiti border.

Sean Paul .... let me add my gratitude and admiration for you and your work to that you have already received.

It seems to me that the eventual winner of this war will be whoever controls the oil fields of Iraq? It also appears to me that the US/UK are not powerful enough to control the oilfields militarily and allow commercial exploitation of those oil fields to take place for any sustained period of time. Do these seem like reasonable opinions?

If they are ..... then we have many wars to fight in the next 2 years.

Hey, you don't need 22 browser windows open. Just get Mozilla and enjoy the wonders of "tabbed" browsing.

YOU ARE MY LIFELINE MAN!!!

Keep up the excellent work!

Its amazing reading your site while listening to the newsradio (im at work). You are hours ahead where seconds count.

Busses of Syrian volunteers are leabving to fight in Iraq the BBC reports.

On whose side?

Sean Paul, you are just amazing. CNN should hang its head at getting beaten by one guy.

From Ha'aretz. Iraqis don't trust yet that we're for real this time:

"After the first Gulf War, the Shiites didn't even wait for the Americans to arrive, and trusted that when the revolt broke out, it would receive U.S. backing. The Americans let the Shiites down, and they learned their lesson.

Will the Iraqi civilian component be absent from the war, then? A Jordanian analyst believes that it cannot be taken for granted that the civilian population will assist in the U.S.-led war effort.

"The Iraqis are at the stage at which they are agonizing. On the one hand, some of them want Saddam to be removed, but on the other hand, they are still not convinced that the Iraqi leadership is on its way out. In Baghdad they see and hear the heavy bombardments, but in Basra, Mosul and Kirkuk - which are also bombed - one can also hear the Iraqi resistance. And there is another factor that is difficult to estimate: To what extent do the Iraqis view the war as one of liberation from Saddam and to what extent do they see it as a war of American occupation?"

In this situation, Jordanian analysts believe, the behavior of the Iraqi civilians will be determined by their immediate surroundings. They see the Iraqi soldiers and not the Americans, they hear the planes and bombings, but the guns of the Iraqi army are more threatening.

The belief is that the longer the war goes on, and the more the U.S.
soldiers remain little more than an image on the TV screens, the civil revolt, which is supposed to be a major factor assisting the U.S.-led forces, will not take off."

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=276321&displayTypeCd=1&sideCd=1&contrassID=2

"Iraq More Unified Than it Looks"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8223-2003Mar21.html

*Excellent* (but brief) historical background on Iraq's nationalistic aspirations.

A bus makes a nice, slow target once it crosses the border.

Nice to see the "peace" activists at work.

Sean Paul, if news is slow right now, update us on that CIA email you mentioned earlier, will you? What was it about? A warning? Congratulations? And, how did you respond? (if you did...)

This site matters a whole lot, ya know. You and Raven are smart, straight-talking guys-- a powerful antidote to all the Bu-shit.

Thanks

Keep up the great work Sean-Paul. I thought I would post this link, (the pics are grafic like some of the others...just a warning to some viewers), for you and others out there, just in case it hasn't been posted before...my eyes are kinda tired and I may have over looked it...you have beaten me to the punch on alot of the others :)...just goes to show how great of a site you have!! I for one want to say thank you!

As the guy who coined the term 'weblog', I'd like to congratulate Sean for pioneering what's obviously the 'right' way to cover complex news events (ie, 22 windows).

Perhaps someone needs to coin a new term for it, assuming it will become standard practice in the future?

[
CENTCOM

March 24, 2003
Release Number: 03-03-55

First Predator Strike Takes out Anti-Air Threat

OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM - A U.S. Air Force MQ-1 Predator found and destroyed a radar-guided anti-aircraft artillery piece in southern Iraq Saturday at 5:25 EST making it the first Predator strike of Operation Iraqi Freedom, defense officials announced.

The multi-role Predator used one AGM-114K "Hellfire II" missile to strike an Iraqi ZSU-23-4 Mobile anti-aircraft artillery gun outside the southern Iraqi town of Al Amarah.

The Predator is an unmanned aerial vehicle remotely piloted from a ground control station.

"The RQ-1 model is used for reconnaissance, while the MQ-1 model is used as an unmanned strike platform," said Lt. Col. Brian Pierson, Chief of Reconnaissance Operations at the Combined Air Operations Center located on a desert air base in Southwest Asia.

The ZSU-23-4 is a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun with a self-contained radar dish for finding and tracking airborne targets. The anti-aircraft systems pose a significant threat to Coalition flying operations, said Pierson. Predators have executed successful strikes previously in Operation ENDURING FREEDOM and Operation SOUTHERN WATCH.
]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2003/iraq-030324-centcom03.htm

I appologize...and I am trying again...the link I was posting is as follows.. http://www.mirror.co.uk/
now I am going to go to bed and get some very much needed sleep.
Keep up the great work Sean-Paul...and don't forget...SLEEP!! :)

I'm shocked and awed at your ability to beat major news organs to the punch. Without their massive resources you've managed to provide the most thorough and comprehensive collection of info out there. At the same time you provide a balanced perspective on all this data. Thanks and have a pizza on me.

Great Job!! You are making this bearable.

How stupid are these "peace advocates".

No Update in 7 mins!!? This site is going down hill!! LOL

Will you need PGP to read the CIA stuff? I don't currently have it set up, but I could do it if I need it.

Sean Paul, you've got the best site covering this war IMHO, two thumbs up!

Great format, if only we could sync it with BBC's glanced agenda.

You're doing great, Sean-Paul. As for Mozilla, I love it myself, but I'm not sure how 22 tabs is necessarily better than 22 IE windows. I don't think our fantastic host needs to be changing his browsing routine, he seems to have it down just fine.

[
"Coordinating hundreds of tanks, trucks, light armored vehicles and thousands of troops proved a logistical nightmare as the division rumbled across Iraqi highways and deserts well into the night Sunday. Frequent pauses, to allow some units to catch up with others, offered the only downtime for exhausted drivers in need of sleep."

"Refueling and resupply stops were nightmarish events, akin to the chaos of an interstate filling station on a Fourth of July weekend. Vehicles lined up for miles, waiting patiently for fuel, their inhabitants scattered in a rush to answer nature’s call."
]

http://www.armytimes.com/story.php?f=1-292925-1698627.php

Jerusalem Post reporting that the 3rd Infantry Division is fighting the Al-Quds brigade just outside of Karbala. The Al-Quds brigade is a group of irregulars supposedly established to fight Israel.

Echelon is listening.

Screw targeting buses. This didn't help sell a "war of liberation" instead of an occupation:

Report: U.S. Bomb Hits Syrian Bus
Monday, Mar 24, 2003; 8:32 AM

DAMASCUS - A U.S. missile hit a passenger bus carrying Syrian civilians fleeing the war in Iraq, killing five and injuring 10, Syria's official news agency reported Monday.

The agency reported that the air-to-surface missile hit the bus Sunday morning in Iraq close to the Syrian border. The bus was carrying 37 passengers.

A U.S. Central Command spokeswoman had no information on the report. She said, however, that U.S. forces do not target civilians and that they fire very carefully, using precision-guided missiles against select military targets.

Also, hat's off to Sean-Paul, beating CNN and Fox in both objectivity and timely reporting, and doing it between bathroom breaks. While he's not as hot as Ashleigh Banfield, he's definitely less annoying than either Aaron Brown or Lester Holt.

he's definitely less annoying than either Aaron Brown

What's up with Aaron Brown? How did this guy become a network anchor?

Bernard Shaw, he was an anchor. A rock. Great sceen persence.

But Aaron Brown? He whines his stories. He stoops in his seat. He looks tentative. And all this talk about "whipping" around the world to get the night's big story.

"And now for the whip."

What the hell is the whip? Who's doing the whipping? Who's the broadcast genius that said, well, yeah: we'll call it The Whip!

Situation in the city of Basra is deteriorating and dangerous, with little, insufficient, or no water or electricity for 3 days, according to International Red cross & BBC.

Answered my own question on the allegiance of the Syrian volunteers. Per the BBC:

Iraqis were trying to make their way back home.

Kathem Mansour, was loading his suitcases in a taxi, about to take the drive from Syria to Baghdad.

"I have to go back, my family is there, I am worried for them", said Mansour who was on a business trip in Italy. "We have to be in Iraq to fight against the Americans, they want to invade our country, we cannot let them."

Is anyone else monitering Baghdad now from the CBS News webcam? What sounds are being broadcast in the street? Pro-Saddam calls?

Also, does anyone else here think that Wolf Blitzer is unbarable to watch? When he's on, I change the channel.

Personally, if I hear Dan Rather say "when news breaks out, we'll break in" one more time, I'm going to scream.

About these polls: I wish media would provide the specific questions asked when they report poll numbers.
If you asked, "Do you support the U.S. attack on Iraq?", you might get dramatically different results than if you'd asked, "Do you support U.S. troops fighting in Iraq?"

Polish elite troops see first action in Iraq

http://www.zawya.com/printstory.cfm?storyid=1048502651nL24604290&Section=Main&page=Home

For the past 4 days I have been trying to make some sense of what has been going on; none of the pieces seemed to fit together.

Then, on the way to the store this morning, it suddenly occurred to me that 2 and 3 days ago, we witnessed a brilliant execution of the most difficult of all field manoeurers, the withdrawal.

From an initial posture west of the Euphrates, the Iraqis demonstrated briefly as the coalition moved forward; then it all began.

First there were the prisoners taken, but not the masses of the Gulf War. Instead, all we saw this time were small handfuls, many of whom might even have been civilians handed a white flag by some Republican Guardsman, and all too happy to get out of the RG's hands.

The rest of the force then began to "melt away" as coalition command correctly observed. What they did not observe was the lack of panic. Instead of abandoned ordnance and armor, we saw only empty desert. The force had withdrawn to positions across the Euphrates.

The past few days, we have seen a lot of delaying in force. Umm Qasr has been reinforced in strength more than once, and Basra is very heavily defended. This has had a twofold effect; first Umm Qasr and Basra ports are denied to the coalition, but also as important, the tactic has led the coalition into believing (at least at first) that what they faced were merely irregular guerrillas, disorganized and probably out of supply.

But contrary to what coalition command would have us believe, there are 6 intact regular Iraqi divisions sitting along the east bank of the Euphrates, and that probably does not include the bulk of the Republican Guard.

This would blow the socks off the claims we've all heard that there is no indication of any Iraqi central command authority. You do not conduct a disorganized withdrawal and get away with it.

This analysis seems to fit everything that has gone on so far (including the delaying tactics), but I never thought of it until this morning because I, like the coalition planners, totally overstated Iraqi weaknesses in my thinking. That Iraqi commander knew his opponent would likely assume the situation to be the same as it was in 1991, and so was able to withdraw almost in full view of the coalition forces (normally one does not do that, for what I think should be obvious reasons).

Of course, Tommy Franks thought of all this yesterday at the very latest, and will be taking steps to turn the situation around.

But, as usual, it ain't in the public media.. yet. I am surprised, though, that none of the media's military experts has picked up on any of these thoughts.

Re: It's all a clever orderly withdrawal. Yeah that's what some people said about the Taliban in Afghanistan too, when they couldn't or wouldn't believe we were winning.

Sean-Paul, best site on the net right now, but one request:
Could you make links pop-ups instead of same browser? Thank you

For good poll information check out:

http://www.pollingreport.com/

Any info on Comander Solo over Iraq?

Commando Solo that is

Can we get a link to the MSNBC article "10:03 EST No chemical weapons at Najaf MSNBC reports"?

I can't find it anywhere on there site and would like to take a look.

Folks embedding HTML should be able to make them automatically popup by inserting a "target=_blank" attribute.

Let's see if this works. It should open up a new browser window:

href="http://www.washingstonpost.com" target=_blank

Michael K:

Right click on your mouse, "open in new window" if that's what you want.

Of course, it helps if you spell the word "Washington" right. Ha.

Try this:

href="http://www.washingtonpost.com" target=_blank

Of course, you can also hold down your key while clicking on a link, but comment authors might want to go ahead and insert the 'target=_blank' attribute anyway, just to be nice.

24-MAR 17:47 WAR NEWS: Iran will not tolerate other violations of its air space.

TEHERAN. Iran will not tolerate other violations of its air space. The Vice-Minister of the Interior Aliasghar Almad has announced that any other warplanes entering its airspace will receive a warning; if it is ignored Teheran’s armed forces will take to “preventative measures.”

http://www.corriere.it/ultima_ora/agrnews.jsp?id=20030324.sm024

Northern edge of town of An Nasiriya, particularly around a bridge, insecure and lots of fire fights, reports BBC from location. Lots of weapons can be heard in the background.

Lee, you can believe what you want, but there are still Iraqis, in strength, in Umm Qasr, nearly 4 days after the place was declared "liberated"

Perhaps you also still believe the 51st Iraq Infantry Division surrendered en masse.. well, some of them anyway, the majority just ran away into the desert.

Yeah, and when they ran away in panic, they had the presence of mind to take their tanks and artillery with them.

Can you show me the evidence that the coalition is winning, right at this very moment? Umm Qasr has been taken not once, not twice, but three times, yet there is still fighting there.

Was it in the great overall plan to have the British pull back from Basra? I kinda doubt it.

The US forces captured the bridges at Nasiriyah nearly 3 days ago, if I recall correctly; they have yet to cross the river.

There is no doubt that Iraq will ultimately be defeated, but you will have to get up rather early in the morning to convince me that the coalition is winning as we type.

Did you not see that report girlmudgeon posted earlier about a massive airlift, and columns of tanks, out of rear areas?

Why were all these troops sitting in the rear for so long? It was thougth they would not be needed for some time.

If you believe for one instant, as Generals Franks and Abizaid have claimed, that this is all proceeding according to plan, you have no knowledge of battle.. and I do not say that as an attack, but a simple fact. No plan survives longer than it takes you to cross the start line; after that, the enemy always manages to do something, somewhere, you did not anticipate.

Thoughts on an orederly withdrawal: The Iraqi military reputation in the 1980s when they faought the Iranians was that of a competent but plodding force. the ineptitude we saw in 1991 was partly the result of being beaten to a pulp from the air for five or six weeks. that hasn't happened this time. So maybe they are capable of the basic maneuvers. The argument against an orderly withdrawal is one of logistics. They are not that mobile and if they were we would spot and destroy them. They need a fairly static defense. So maybe they positioned themselves to retain harassing capacity yet be out of the way of attacks they knew they couldn't sustain. That seems within their competence and fighting characteristics. It doesn't require high levels of initiative or imagination. I don't believe that they have the capability of a conducting a general withdrawal, but they've had a long time to prepare. Perhaps their basic plan was simply better and more realistic than we expected. I think there is some insight to be had here.

Polish participation was also reported by the NY Times on Friday or Saturday as part of a oil rig raid.

i see fox news is showing a clip of a successful patriot missile launch/hit. however i'm pretty certain it's the clip of the patriot/tornado interaction.

i suppose it's too much to expect some class from fox news.

What surprises (even) me:

1) A fair number of Iraqis--this is a preliminary impression--are regarding this as a war for national existence, in a similar fashion to the way the Soviets, Germans, and Japanese viewed invaders in WWII (rightly or wrongly). This might have been predictable, given that polls show 94 percent of the Arab world believes that we're in Iraq for the oil and for Israel. But it surprises me nonetheless. I don't doubt that we will ultimately prevail, but I wonder how long it will take to pacify the country afterwards, and I think Wolfowitz's projection that it would take "no more than 70,000 American troops" to keep the peace is looking very poor.

2) We've been planning for this war for 12 years, mapping routes and terrain. Apparently, so have the Iraqis. I sort of figured that Saddam was arrogant and too stupid to learn from the First Gulf War, but maybe not. Beating off a helicopter attack using RPG's is impressive enough, North Vietnamese Army impressive. It's their tactic.

3) We've had a serious "friendly fire" takedown of a UK attack aircraft returning to Kuwait, killing two highly-trained RAF aircrew. This is unforgiveable. We should be better trained than this incident suggests, "fog of war" or not. We've been jointly running missions over Iraq since 1991.

An Nasiriyah is in the south between Basrah and Najaf fyi. I dont like how we are going about the war. We are advancing without securing territory and the country will collapse and we could be in a very bad situation. Umm Qasr is a small town which is right across the border from Kuwait.

Also, Air Raid Sirens in Baghdad right now!

If you are at work and want to read the Agonist without your activities being logged try this link: https://nav.ebutechnologies.com/securing/free-anon.cgi/30/http://www.agonist.org/

ps. There are other anonimizers out there too if this one is too slow...

My apologies, Lee; my response to you was excessively harsh, and unwarranted.

thumbs up means alot of things in many different places, it is considered an insult, but I don't think in all arab places...my memory is saying egypt and turkey/greece

Darius

Can you show me the evidence that the coalition is winning, right at this very moment.

Eh, we're just 50 miles outside of Baghdad?

The resistance in the south, again, is mostly the Fedayeen. Apparently we are holding back from crushing them right now because we do not want the civilian casualities it would entail. We're hoping to surround them, destroy the leadership in Baghdad and cut them off.

But hey, lots of people thought Afghanistan was going poorly too at first. So whatever.

I was in the 1st Gulf War with the 101st and we were told that the Arab equal to the middle finger is our "A OK" hand gesture or also known by the Arabs as "The Evil Eye"

From the Navy Themselves:

http://www.msc.navy.mil/msccent/taboos.htm

Thumbs up, meaning "everything is great" or "I’m Okay" to the West can be equated to the "middle finger" by Middle Easterners. Of note, hitch-hikers do not "thumb a ride", rather they hold their hand horizontal to the road and wave it up and down as though telling motorists to "reduce speed".

No problem, raven. :)

Brian,
A fair number of Iraqis--this is a preliminary impression--are regarding this as a war for national existence.

Don't be fooled into thinking that the resistance of Saddam's most fervent supporters from his Sunni tribe are representative of the Iraqi people.

What seems to rather be the case is that a lot of Iraqis are suspicious that we are really in it to finish off Saddam this time, after their experience in 1991, so they are being prudent and cautious. That is somewhat surprising to me, I admit, but I can understand it. Also because our troops are surrounding cities but not taking them, ie Basra, so Iraqis still see more of Saddam's troops than ours.

It should be noted that the Dow started a new minislide almost the minute you posted that fierce fighting lost bridge thing...Interesting on who's reading your stuff...

Darius

Anonymous;

Most corporate filters block anonymyzers, and I would guess that people accessing anonymyzers raise more flags at IT HQ than going to a blog site.

Anyone want to take a wager when the NSA will pull the plug on the Agonist?

My guess is that it'll happen within 12 hours.

It should be noted that the Dow started a new minislide almost the minute you posted that fierce fighting lost bridge thing...Interesting on who's reading your stuff...

Oh please. Now blogs are affecting the market, c'mon.

50 miles from Baghdad, sure.. but with a fully exposed flank, all the way back to Umm Qasr. I don't consider that a very secure position.

Baghdad cannot be attacked from the south unless you get onto the eastern bank of the Euphrates; apart from special ops, the coalition is entirely on the west bank.

The situation in Nasiriyah, Basra, Najaf, and Umm Qasr is hardly consistent with a winning situation. The situation as it exists right now can best be described as a two-edged sword; with good planning and execution, it can be exploited, but without, it will turn into a disaster.

Anyone want to take a wager when the NSA will pull the plug on the Agonist?

Why would they even bother? C'mon people, this is just a blog!

I like the information poster here, but what's with the conspiracy theories now.

First it's directly affecting the stock market, and now it's marked as a threat by the NSA?!?!?

Any information on the Turkish invasion in the North?

If any gov't agency pulled this site off the air, that would be a brutal violation of the first amendment. This site is a compilation of what's already out there and presenting it to a large audience.

For info on vulgarity of gestures throughout the world, check out

http://www.ooze.com/finger/thefinger.pdf

Having lived in Nigeria for many years, I can confirm what this document says about 'thumbs up'

I'm glad you cought the Iraqis giving the thumbs up... I saw that 2 days ago, and really questioned. No one else said anything so I took it that I was mistaken.

On a side note Sean Paul - I am an addict. Thank you for your work! I know where the pizza button is... :)

mel

Michael K;

Why would any govt. agency shut down this site (pull off the air? Is this a TV station?)?

Why would they even bother?

Seems to me some people get a bit too carried away with the whole bloggin thing.

Raven: I agree with you that this strategy seems risky. Apparently they're gambling on taking Baghdad and destroying the leadership as soon as possible and trying to avoid battles in places like Basra and Najaf before then that would kill civilians and cause us problems with Iraqis after the war. We'll see in hindsight how good of a plan it was.

If NSA pulls you Sean, make sure you get us that info on the CIA first...hehehehe.

You should do this for a living man.

Unless of course you do...and in that case...

GOOD CAREER CHOICE.

I think Sean-Paul has out-Drudged Drudge.

I predict a Drudge smear campaign after all this is over. Pretty soon everyone will be talking about "Sean-Paul" instead of Drudge.

Poor Drudge. The best he can do is get a snapshot of a oscar statue lying on a red carpet. (Although I must admit, Drudge's fascination with Nielson rating and earthquakes has always struck me as odd.)

I am not sure about the Arab world per se, but I have heard from friends in Israel that American Hitchhikers often cause resentment by putting out their thumb. It means the same as the middle finger here.

Not that I appreciate it under the present circumstances, but the irony of the US to complain to the Russians for selling weapons to the Iraqis is definitely the pot calling the kettle black after our support to the mujahedeen fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 80s.

On an additional note:

There were a photograph in a lot of newspapers of an Israeli soldier helping an old palestine lady up. No problem here. Nice thing everyone would think. Wrong. He was smoking while doing so, one of the most insulting things you can do in the arabic world. Never ever smoke when an elder is in the room.

Do you have any info on Iraqi casualties, have not heard anything and with the US claims of bombing Iraqi forces, I would guess they would be substantial. Any post appreciated. Good work Sean. Thanks.

The scary thing about the Russian arms sales isn't so much that they're selling them -- more that they're actually working, and working quite well, apparently.

Kim Jong Il -- cover your fat little ears. Pretend you don't hear any of this.

Do you have any info on Iraqi casualties, have not heard anything and with the US claims of bombing Iraqi forces, I would guess they would be substantial. Any post appreciated

http://www.iraqbodycount.net/

BTW, if a ragtag band of Iraqi irregulars is causing us grief, imagine what a million-strong "Army-Based Policy" army will cause us?

From about 25 minutes ago:

"NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. officials said Monday that no chemical weapons were found at a suspected site at Najaf in central Iraq, U.S. television networks reported.

NBC News reported from the Pentagon that no chemicals at all were found at the site. CNN, also reporting from the Pentagon, said officials now believe the plant there was abandoned long ago by the Iraqis."

Don't worry, I'm sure we'll hear about "what about that chemical weapons plant?" for months to come.

re. my previous post: that's civilian casualties. Haven't seen the same thing for military casualties.

Perhaps their basic plan was simply better and more realistic than we expected

Many small wars (not small to those who are unfortunately in it, of course) also serve as proxy battles for larger "allies" behind the scenes who wish to test their own military technologies and strategies.

I will bet you an anchovy pizza that the Russians are participating in this, at least as technical advisors or planners. A couple of speculative points:

- Guerrilla, Vietnam-style tactics.
- The sale of Russian military equipment to Iraq, including GPS jammers. Who's providing the tech support?
- Eastern bloc radar equipment.
- Iraqi Migs, wherever they are.
- Those GRU radio intercepts of theatre and local coalition communications. Are they all coming from monitoring stations outside of Iraq?

And so on.

Quote from above "But contrary to what coalition command would have us believe, there are 6 intact regular Iraqi divisions sitting along the east bank of the Euphrates, and that probably does not include the bulk of the Republican Guard.

This would blow the socks off the claims we've all heard that there is no indication of any Iraqi central command authority. You do not conduct a disorganized withdrawal and get away with it."
end quote

Gen. Franks in this mornings press briefing commented on both of these points. He said, as has his staff and others on many occasions, that they know there are intact Iraqi army elements in and around Baghdad. No surprise there.

He also said it was wrong for the press to report there is no Iraqi command and control capability any more. He knows they still have that capability and no one besides the uninformed is claiming otherwise.
I guess the reason the mainstream media isn't reporting these things is because they have been directly refuted and arn't really issues.

Images being broadcasted of the suspected weapons plant on BBC.

Shows the living conditions of some Iraqi soldiers, beds, etc. Previously I read a report of an Iraqi soldier who had been living off nothing but a plastic bag filled with raw meat for rations in a machine gun nest.

raven,

Drink some more coffee and read the postings on this site.

After leaving the British 7th Armd Div to "secure" Basra, the USMC ran up the Tigris and has been reported to be engaged as far north as Al Kut.

Last time I checked, this was east of the Euphrates.

Plus, it sounds like some of the 3rd ID got across some bridges the vic of Nasiriyah and are coming up between the Tigris and the Euphrates.

NYT reports a forward planning meeting for this assault on the rep guards.

Time to update the agonist Iraq battle map

raven,

Drink some more coffee and read the postings on this site.

After leaving the British 7th Armd Div to "secure" Basra, the USMC ran up the Tigris and has been reported to be engaged as far north as Al Kut.

Last time I checked, this was east of the Euphrates.

Plus, it sounds like some of the 3rd ID got across some bridges the vic of Nasiriyah and are coming up between the Tigris and the Euphrates.

NYT reports a forward planning meeting for this assault on the rep guards.

Time to update the agonist Iraq battle map

I don't see how you keep up with everything, you are either abreast or ahead of everyone else! You are getting great press to boot.
Everyone just wants the no-bull*9#@ truth...too bad it's so hard to find! Not here, though. Keep it up, Sean-Paul!

Is there any good news? Even a snippet?

I have a question:

How come our "Rule the Night" army is doing so much day combat?

Here is a picture from MSNBC of an Iraqi greeting coalition forces with an 'ambiguous gesture'

http://www.msnbc.com/c/0/144/401/ssMain.asp?fmt=child&sld=3&res=10x7&0ss=N274144401

I am legal counsel to a group of employers.

I have been asked to write to you and demand that you cease and desist your activities on this site forthwith.

You are clearly aware that the review of this site by employees causes a chemical reaction in the neural pathways similar to that caused by nicotine and heroin.

Your continued actions in making available this addictive electro-narcotic is known to you, or ought reasonably to be known to you, as a cause of severe economic harm to my clients. You know or ought to know that employees around the world are stealing time from my clients by reading this site during working hours.

In the event that you do not cease and desist from operating this site I have been advised my clients to commence appropriate legal proceedings.

Your have been warned.

:)

Thanks for the insight, Lee.

I would be confident that our military is as professional and well-trained as any, and better supported than all others, and that our soldiers have been briefed on what gestures are acceptable and what gestures indicate contempt. Our Administration seems cumbersome and grating and dismissive of other culures (I listened to a French radio press conference with our ambassador to Paris, who apparently speaks little French, two years into the job, more or less.) but I've always been impressed that our troops are overseen by career grown-ups. We might interpret them wrongly, but I doubt they will.

This is the last time I'm checking this site, today. It's too addictive.

Images from BBC 'day of war in pictures:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/photo_gallery/2877863.stm

its the 3rd or so img.

just curious - i'm not that familiar with blog culture - what's wrong with anonymizers? do they mess up stats somehow?

I heard that GPS might be degraded once the war started, my brother has a GPS unit so we checked it out. It seemed unaffected, as accurate as always (here in the central US, at least).

Lee, that seems to me a pretty accurate assessment of Gen Franks's plan; but as I said, enemies rarely cooperate in battle, and the Iraqis sure aren't cooperating this time.

I hope you don't think I am saying this is all lost; I haven't. Franks has the brains to pull the fat out of the fire, if he didn't, he wouldn't have got command (one hopes, at least).

He was cool as a cucumber this morning, when everything that was happening could hardly have been according to plan. That takes a lot of guts, and one mighty competent, confident, general.

I said earlier (and a few pages back) that there is no panic in the command tents of Central Command. I meant that; now it remains to be seen if Franks has sufficient troops to be able to pull it off, or at the worst, pull off a withdrawal.

You may have guessed I am all against this war, but I am sure not in favor of Iraq, and I don't want to see anyone die needlessly.

"The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend." -- old Arab proverb.

Might pay to keep that in mind when considering the attitude of the Shi'ites towards the US, after Hussein is gone.

Brian C.B. stand by for summons. You will be one of my witnesses.

Exhibit A is copied below.

"This is the last time I'm checking this site, today. It's too addictive.

Posted by Brian C.B. at March 24, 2003 12:49 PM"

LOL

The "chemical plant" that journalistically morphed into a "chemical weapons plant" was a red herring from the get-go. It was actually a known facility, according to a link through Buzzflash to a government report. Secondly, if we can realistically hope to pinpoint uber-transient Saddam's whereabouts closely enough to kill him, and we miss a somewhat less mobile 100-acre chemical facility because it was draped with camouflage netting, we have a credibility problem in front of any but the most gullible audience.

No, really, I'm leaving now.

Interesting interview with former president of the Algerian Senate Bashir Boumaza (sp?) on Radio-France Internationale. Boumaza is a long-time friend of Saddam and claims to have metmet the Iraqi leader last December in Baghdad.

Boumaza says that Saddam is well aware that he is fighting a losing cause but he sees himself as "a capitain who is the last to abandon ship". He sees his situation with some fatalism à la Churchill and told Boumaza: "I was born in Iraq, I will die in Iraq".

Furthermore, Saddam told him that this war would be fought in the cities with a final showdown in Baghdad.

The retired Algerian politician goes on and expects the disintegration of Iraq as a nation after the removal of the Raïs, stating that Lebanon would look like a "miniature" in comparison.

According to him, the likely next target of US attacks could very well be Yemen, considering its strategic position to control the Red Sea. The new bases in Djibouti are a sing of this new US ambitions.

A few bits:

One bit of reporting that appears to me to be conspicuously missing is Iraqi military casualties. Plenty of info on either coalition or Iraqi civilian casualties but not rack-ups of estimated Iraqi military casualties. I recognize this is difficult to do but some relative estimate would be illuminating.

Comparing this conflict (as Brian C.B. did) to that of the Germans, Soviets, and Japanese completely misses the point of those conflicts. The Eastern front in WW2 was not a war of conquest; it was a war of annihilation. The Germans, upon invasion of the Soviet Union, made no precept of attempting to spare the civilians of their depredations. On the return trip, the Soviets made revenge the clear order of the day. The only "existence" threatened by the US coalition is that of those who most fervently support Saddam. And this must be clearly evident to even the most jaded civilians who see ordnance directed only to government infrastructure.

As for Baghdad, my fear is not so much that it turns into a "Stalingrad" so much as a "Leningrad". Our forces will not be sucked into a hand-to-hand fight, but they could be suckered into a siege stalemate designed (by Saddam) to kill the civilians but keep Saddam and his cronies going.

I've been looking at Algeria as a model for postwar political Iraq for awhile, although the Franco-Algerian War has much more telling lessons for Israel and the Occupied Territories. Mostly, though, I think that a democratized Iraq will fall under the command of religious parties after one-man rule is ended (as did Algeria) and then be thwarted by secular civil and military authories (as was Algeria) with worse consequences for the US than the French, given our far closer union with the post-war Iraqi regime.

Must...quit...blog...now..

Raven,

I agree with you on that the orderly withdrawl of Iraqi forces indicates a certain amount of command and control on the parts of the Iraqis. Likewise, the POW debacle had to appear on Iraqi state television from orders on high.

We must also remember that the media is treating every skirmish as if it were the battle of Kursk. I'm certain the US is attempting to achieve local superiority of force in every engagement it is fighting.

For a guerrilla war to be properly conducted, the guerrillas must have the support of the population. I don't see that happening, at least in the Shi'ite south.

In fact, if we have any intelligence at all, we would be showing Basra's civil leaders video of how we are really trying to get rid of Saddam, and trying to plant the seeds for a general uprising there (convincing them that the sooner Saddam's boys are out the sooner they can get full civic services might help.)

The uprising, augmented by alliance airpower, would certainly handle any rearguard actions against the Fedayeen and Republican Guard remnaints. The key is getting this rising to take place.

(Related: How much armour and APC's do the Iraqi government have remaining in the south?)

Likewise, for the Iraqis to take seriously advantage of any situation (flanks we've left open, etc.) in a manner beyond ambushes of various sorts, they have to move large numbers of forces to the attack. We would notice this and move to oppose it.

This means a large set-piece battle, in which the attacking Iraqis would be slaughtered.

The only hope the Iraqis have of inflicting major casualties is isolating an entire company or battalion and facing it with overwhelming, sudden force. I just don't see the Iraqis being able to do much more absent weapons of mass destruction.

Mekozak:

I thoroughly understand those differences, but I wonder whether the Iraqis do, now? In the (rightly understood as war of annihilation) campaigns against the USSR and the return campaign against Germany, nationalism and national preservation kept resistance alive, resistance defending a corrupt and brutal regime. Clearly, we're not the Red Army or the Nazi-backed Wermacht, but that distinction may not be immediately apparent to the Iraqis. That was my point.

I try to get out, and they drag me back in.

Spa - Thanks!

punch the "next page" button, folx. We're a couple of "flashes" ahead now.

Shawn, read the info at www.aeronautics.ru (be patient, there is a lot of traffic into that site, you'll get connect refusals quite a lot).

It claims to be translations of Russian military intelligence analyses of radio intercepts from Iraq, both sides.

GRU says Iraq has about 250 tanks near Nasiriyah, the US about 200.

http://216.239.39.100/search?q=cache:Q9jClntnHp0C:www.monterey.army.mil/atzp/ch/world/pdf/d5gestur.pdf+rude+gestures+muslim&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

Military documents from Monterey state the following:

Thumbs upThis gesture, expressing connotationsof "I am winning," historically is offensive to manyArabs. After the Gulf conflict, however, MiddleEasterners of the Arabian Peninsula adopted this handmovement, along with the OK sign, as a symbol ofcooperation toward freedom.

Brian C.B., I'm not sure that Russian nationalism of the type generated in 1941 in the aftermath of Barbarossa is consistent with the Iraqi model. Firstly, of the three main antagonists (agonists?), Kurds, Sunni, and Shi'a, only about a third of the country (the Sunni) would likely take a nationalist bent. The rest would likely prefer to see Saddam disappear by whatever means.
Second, the typical Soviet citizen had little choice, either die along with your entire family via Nazi debauchery (which would be guaranteed) or probably die as a soldier in an attempt to protect your family from being overrun. It was a clear choice to those people. To the average Iraqi, the same is not true. The average Iraqi can melt away without fear by the obviously apparent lack of civilian targeting by the US coalition.
The situation can be somewhat akin to the German onslaught into the Ukraine. The initial reaction received by the Germans varied, but on the whole remained rather positive. It was only when the Germans revealed themselves that nationalism (to "Mother Russia") became a factor. I do not believe this is where the Iraqi populace is. I don't believe Saddam will be helped by any apparent nationalism. What I do see is that the coalition forces will have to contend with the desperate straits and vested interests of a relatively large group of people who have depended on Saddam for their station in life and will likely lose big-time with his downfall.

That GPS jammer story is old. I'm almost certain I've read it before. In any case, the technology is easily obtainable and cheap.

mezozak says
"
Brian C.B., I'm not sure that Russian nationalism of the type generated in 1941 in the aftermath of Barbarossa is consistent with the Iraqi model. Firstly, of the three main antagonists (agonists?), Kurds, Sunni, and Shi'a, only about a third of the country (the Sunni) would likely take a nationalist bent. The rest would likely prefer to see Saddam disappear by whatever means.
"

These two are by no means opposites.
Sure the Shia might be happy to rid of Saddam. That doesn't mean that, the moment he's gone, they won't start working on kicking out the Americans. The fact that the US worked together with the Soviets to get rid of Hitler doesn't mean there was any love lost between them---and look how long it took after Hitler was gone for them to turn on each other; what all of 5 seconds?