Another Set Of Predictions

~by Phil Sloan

1. Dow Rallies to 13500 then collapses to 11000 and recovers back to 12500 at year end.
2. Interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury falls to 1.50% the 30 year Us Treasury falls to 2.75% on deflationary fears. They climb back to finish the year 2.50% on the 10 year and 3.75% on the 30 year.
3. Gold collapses to $1200 than rallies back to 1450 at year end.
4. Oil spikes to $200 as Iraq falls into civil war. Iran attempts to close the straits of Hormuz, but is thwarted by US Navy. Tensions remain high.
5. Scott Walker is recalled in Wisconsin.
6. Republicans go into the convention deadlocked. Establishment candidate emerges as victor. Tea party runs a third party candidate handing the election to Obama. Democrats gain 40 house seats and retain Senate.
7. Greece defaults and is forced to leave EU along with Portugal. Europe goes into deep recession.
8. Occupy Wall Street (OWS) revives in spring with a vengeance. Violence spreads throughout US.
9. Rhetoric escalates in Pacific between US and Chinese navies.
10. Argentina attempts blockade of Falkland Islands.

Any one else got predictions?

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Sean Paul Kelley

Traveler of the (real) Silk Road, scholar and historian, photographer and writer - founder of The Agonist.

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  • the number of countries using this currency will shrink considerably.

    Sexual inequality is “The Mother of all Inequalities”.
    Liberate female sexuality and you will eliminate racism, homophobia, financial greed, and violence.

  • The year of living dangerously


    But, as Strauss and Howe point out, the core elements that created this Crisis and the reaction of generational cohorts to the implications of debt, civic decay and global disorder will drive all the events that will occur in 2012 and for as far as the eye can see. Linear thinkers in mega-corporations, mainstream media and Washington D.C. focus on retaining the status quo, their power and their wealth. They believe an economic recovery can be manufactured through monetary manipulation and Keynesian borrowing and spending. They are blind to the fact that history is cyclical, not linear. In order to have an understanding of what could happen in the coming year, it is essential to keep the big picture in focus. As we enter the fifth year of this twenty year Crisis period, there is absolutely no chance that 2012 will see an improvement in our economy, political atmosphere or world situation. Fourth Turnings never de-intensify. They exhaust themselves after years of chaos, conflict and turmoil. I can guarantee you that 2012 will see increased mayhem, riots, violent protests, recessions, bear markets, and a presidential election that will confound the establishment. All the episodes which will occur in 2012 will have at their core one of the three elements described by Strauss & Howe in 1997: Debt, Civic Decay, or Global Disorder.

    I did inhale.

  • Romney’s gonna sew it up before too much longer; there’s a good chance he’ll win in South Carolina, which will ice it. (More’s the pity, I could go for a few more weeks of GOP bloodletting.) There might be a Tea Party candidate, or maybe Ron Paul will plow on as an independent, but most of the GOPers will sullenly fall in line. Obama will beat Romney, but it will end up being pretty close.

    If/when Obama wins a second term, some right wing nutjob will make a serious attempt to assassinate him. I’m surprised (and yes, VERY pleased) it hasn’t already happened.


  • 90% is right on. Don’t have time to elaborate on the 10% I don’t agree with…, maybe next weekend. Hint: housing summary and Occupy Movement.

  • but comments on predictions

    1. Stocks rally until March when Greece comes back to haunt us. Numbers I don’t know, but the timeline is clear–short of another GOP debt ceiling stunt between then and now.
    2. Treasuries inversely follow stocks. A rally in bonds should be expected. Take note of the dollar index right now, that does not bode well for any long term rally in stocks. It is a bad omen.
    3. Gold appears to have hit it’s apogee with a lower cyclical low this year. That may be a glitch from MF Global, or it could be a trend. I would hold, but I wouldn’t buy and hold. You will likely get another cyclical spike this year.
    4. Oil generally hits its cyclical lows in February and spikes. War in October at the latest unless cooler head prevail.
    5. Wishful thinking
    6. Probably
    7. Unlikely. The wet dishrag likes his new empire. It’s eventual, but probably not this year unless they can’t kick the can down the road again.
    8. 100%! …my wishful thinking, but I believe it to be true.
    9. Probably.
    10. Don’t thoughts on the subject

  • A spike of a week or so is one thing, but if oil lingers much longer at such a level it is hard to see the stock market holding up above 11,000 on the Dow. An oil crisis is one of those things that can easily cost the Dow 5,000 or more points. I would think that such a crisis might come about if Iran is forced to shut down its oil exports. Iraq, on the other hand, has never fully recovered its export abilities, and a renewed civil war is not going to disrupt that much of the global supply, especially if the civil war is confined to the Shi’ites and Sunnis, and not the Kurds.

  • I will reiterate a very long term trend though as it portends to ‘civic decay’ or as Ron Paul likes to call them in his newsletters ‘Race Riots.’

    Death from Warfare continues to be at a long term historic all time low. A declining trend that began approximately 1200 AD.

    Violence in the United States has been declining since about the early 1980s for reasons that has confounded the experts. Murder, violent crime, rape, are all in long term decline. It has particularly been surprising that the the trends have continued even during periods of economic hardship.

    Violent crime rates have also entered a period of sustained decline globally. Many theories but it is a confounding trend.

    Protest movements have been largely peaceful, with the greatest violence actually emerging on the side of government actors (in the US police, in other countries police and military). However, their acts are being widely broadcast and the repercussions are almost uniformly negative for the actors and activities. This has also caused the state side violence to be in a general decline.

    Consider the protests in Syria today are identical to those in the 1980s. The protests then yielded 35,000 dead. Today it is a fraction of that.

    It is a fascinating period where nonviolent protest has never been more effective and widespread. I do not see Occupy turning violent, as the philosophy and effectiveness of nonviolent protest is even turning the heads of groups like Hamas.

    This is the true failure of Al Qaeda. Nonviolence in the age of the internet is in my view unstoppable.

    I therefore see the continuation of this amazing global long term trend of less war, less conflict, and less violence.

    There will always be incidents and events, and today it may seem like there are more but that is because the individual events are broadcast more thoroughly and rapidly.

  • 1. Dow Rallies to 13500 then collapses to 11000 and recovers back to 12500 at year end.
    3. Gold collapses to $1200 than rallies back to 1450 at year end.
    4. Oil spikes to $200 as Iraq falls into civil war. Iran attempts to close the straits of Hormuz, but is thwarted by US Navy. Tensions remain high.


    But they are in reverse order. If oil rises, stocks should fall and gold will rise (not in the same % as oil though.) If oil falls, the reverse is usually true. Unless you’re predicting that the prices of oil, gold, and equities are going to completely decouple (which is possible), but that would be deserving of an spot on the list all it’s own. Actually, that would be #1 IMHO as it would be the most dire sign of the crazy train going off its rails. If that happens, we’re down to food, gas, water, bullets, and gold as forms of currency.

  • Keep yours and this set SPK and revisit them at the end of the year.


    1. I too see a Dow Rally and 13500 is pretty good. This is a year for catchup though and it would not surprise me at all for the Dow to move pas 14000 and hold. Job growth, pent up demand and low interest with growth in earnings leaves no room for Dow to remain flat again.
    2. Not a big forecast for 10-years since they are already 1.9%, but these rates WILL stay low all year. Natural interest is above zero now so no longer deflationary on the US side.
    3. Gold has to collapse. It is a totally hyped and fake market. I do not see it recovering, only a long trend down.
    4. I do not really see an oil spike this year. The heavy oil use is always in winter, lighter in the summer and US has been running surplus gas for months now. US production is up, US demand sharply down. US is actually exporting product right now, and I would forecast oil products will actually be the US number one export in 2012.

    Iraq will fall into oligarchy but not civil war (that would be a tall order, magnitudes of violence greater than what is being seen). Iran will NEVER attempt to close the Strait. It gives the West the excuse to take out their family jewel uranium program. I’d like to say it would be great to see a resurgent Green movement, which would occur if Syria falls.
    5. Wouldn’t that be great!
    6. Republican convention will be a shadow. There will be no interest in any of the candidates. Romney will run though. There is already a libertarian candidate running as third party. He could gain serious traction. Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico. As congress goes, good estimates.
    7. Europe will pony up to keep this together. It is emotional more than anything else. There is simply no mechanism for Greece to exit.
    8. Yes it will! But it will occur without violence. This is a nonviolent movement with real time internet video streaming in an election year. I invite the mayors and governors of america to attack these movements. It is a one way ticket out of office.
    9. US will enter the pacific sphere in a big way and exit the western sphere at the same time. This will be done very carefully and the economic interrelationship with China will prevent any saber rattling. I’d add that China will begin to need US help in Africa, relations will get closer. They have gotten in too deep and do not know how to handle protection of vital interests in foreign theaters.
    10. OK. Why not.

  • * Civil war in Iraq will grow throughout 2012 and coming years. Never should have pencilled Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds into one nation, you silly Brits. They don’t approve of one another as human beings.

    * No war with Iran. They own the Persian Gulf, and the oil that moves through it, and so they own our economies.

    Iran’s ability to easily close the Straits of Hormuz TO COMMERCIAL TRAFFIC must not be underestimated. Every oil tanker that goes through that narrow channel is insured to the hilt, and if just the threat of sinking one arises, insurance costs will quadruple, which will drive oil prices above $500 bbl.

    For as long as Tehran wants.

    It’s the insurance, stupid. Even if we nuke Tehran and put 300,000 troops in country there will be missiles and speed boats threatening and sinking Gulf traffic for years to come from Iranian patriots hiding out in the ten thousand hidey holes of the Atlas Mountains — which line the entire Persian Gulf.

    Right now we are threatening Iran’s central bank. They need only send a certified letter to Lloyd’s of London informing them that one random oil tanker passing through the Gulf will be sunk in the next 30 days, and it will shake the entire global economy to its core.

  • as they put it easier than drinking a cup of coffee. Yet the prices have not moved.

    It is idle, and I maintain they, in reality, do not have the capability to do anything meaningful.

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