EU-Israel Relations, Israeli Politics, and the Gaza Strikes


In the developing world, the Gaza strikes provoked a clear backlash against Israel. To take just one example, protests against Israel's actions have broken out across Latin America. Not surprisingly, Chavez kicked out Israel's ambassador this week. But Venezuela did not see the largest protests - those were in Buenos Aires, where Arab students led a march of 20,000 people to the Israeli embassy on Tuesday.

But it's harder to parse out the strikes' effects in other political spheres, particularly EU-Israel relations and internal Israeli politics.

To take Europe first, the Christian Science Monitor says that Israel is finding "more sympathy in Europe." CSM attributes changing European attitudes about Israel to growing concerns about Muslim minority populations in Europe and about Islamism more broadly; the article cites polls showing plurality support for Israel in France and Germany. Other factors are at work too. Jewish communities across Europe have staged pro-Israel rallies, and CSM speculates that the entrance of Eastern European countries into the EU, along with a diminution of France's dominance (and thus a decreased emphasis on France's Arab ties) has also increased sympathy for Israel.

I'm not convinced. I find the LA Times' depiction of a fractured Europe more convincing than CSM's portrait of increasing pro-Israeli sentiment throughout the continent. The LA Times notes the contradictory statements of European leaders on the Gaza strikes, the multiple calls for cease-fires, and the confused nature of US-EU relations during the Bush-Obama transition. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations have also swept Europe.

The picture is, I repeat, somewhat murky.

It's also far from easy to guess what effects the strikes are having, and will have, within Israel.

As far as Hamas and its future are concerned, Israel will not destroy Hamas with these attacks. As Stirling argues, if any part of Hamas is destroyed it will be the moderate wing, not the entire organization. And as Gideon Lichfield says, even if the attacks go flawlessly from Israel's perspective they will not achieve the goal of "deterring" Hamas, but rather they will have the unintended consequence of redirecting violence into new channels.

Regarding the attacks and internal Israeli politics, Lichfield and others believe that Israel's leadership launched attacks in large measure to shore up their tough guy credentials in anticipation of February's elections. I agree. Polls have shown Livni's Kadima and Netanyahu's Likud running neck and neck for some time now. Since the strikes began, it actually appears that Labor's Ehud Barak has benefited the most politically; his party's poll numbers have risen and his personal popularity has soared. Perhaps that means he'll be a fixture of the next government whether Kadima or Likud wins. And perhaps some of his support is being leeched from Netanyahu - though the New York Times mentions that Barak's caution prior to the war has solidified support for him among some leftists.

On the other hand, any Israeli politician's gains in this mess may prove short-lived. The BBC notes the majority support among Israelis for the strikes, but also points out that similar support for the invasion of Lebanon in 2006 quickly turned to bitterness. Some Israelis, even those who believe the strikes to be a good idea, also see the maneuver as a transparent political ploy by Labor and Kadima. This isn't the first time military action has intersected with Israeli politics, but in the past results have been mixed; sometimes the leaders who initiate wars end up paying for it at the polls.

Given the instability of Israeli politics and the confused European reaction, it's understandable - but not commendable - that Obama has kept a relatively low profile on the situation. Israel has clearly exploited a moment of uncertainty in US and world politics to launch this offensive, but when Obama takes office Israel itself will be facing its own uncertainties. Obama won't know quite what - and who - he will deal with in Israel until after the elections in February.

Nonetheless, that just makes the US' imperative to act decisively to end the conflict even clearer. The dynamics of the situation indicate to me that Hamas, a prisoner of its situation, will keep firing rockets; Israeli politicians, prisoners of their situation, will find themselves unable or unwilling to broker peace through bilateral channels; and Europe, without US support, will be hamstrung diplomatically. That means the initiative rests with America. Unfortunately, I doubt Obama will risk much political capital on the Israel/Palestine conflict, especially during his first term. I wish he would take the regional repercussions into account and recognize how detrimental the conflict is to our interests abroad, but I don't think even those concerns will prompt American leadership to action any time soon. I remain pessimistic.


Alex Thurston January 8, 2009 - 11:22am
( categories: Analysis | Israel and Palestine )

"Nonetheless, that just makes the US' imperative to act decisively to end the conflict even clearer."

I really don't see how one of the most violent, corrupt nations in history is going to help bring peace to anyone. What the US is going to do is to keep the conflict going as long as possible, because that way they can continue to sell arms to all sides and make lots of money off of Israeli and Palestinian suffering. One of the most important things that has to be done to bring peace to I-P is for the US to butt out and let the Israelis and Palestinians work it out themselves. The US no longer has any credibility among either side, and its involvement will only make things worse. They need to stop interfering, cut off arms sales to all sides and start dealing with their infinitely worse war crimes and human rights abuses. Americans are the last people in the world who are in a position to criticize another nation for waging unnecessary wars and killing civilians.

jonbrown January 8, 2009 - 1:27pm
Alex Thurston January 8, 2009 - 7:30pm

International Law

McClatchy News, No Gaza Exit Strategy It is difficult to see how this ends”

canuck January 8, 2009 - 3:51pm

vis-a-vis, Israel, as much of the "expertise" Obama and HRC are building into Israeli-Palestinian issues from Jan 20 onward is coming from the Center for a New American Security, whose website is well worth surfing. Its policies and politics seem to be a syncretic jumble of positions distilled from AIPAC, PNAC, WINEP, etc., papers and personnel, and is THE "national security" lobby group which will supply "brainpower and ideas" for the Obama team going forward. Oy vey.

http://www.cnas.org/



“les Etats-unis, c’est le seul pays à être passé de la préhistoire à la décadence sans jamais connaitre la civilisation…”...Georges Clemenceau

barrisj redux January 8, 2009 - 6:42pm

Kucinich: Bush Administration Ignores Humanitarian Crisis
Submitted by davidswanson on Thu, 2009-01-08 15:55.

Israeli Military Prevents Emergency Ambulance Care for Four Days

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 8, 2009) -- Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) today made the following statement on the House floor calling attention to a report in the Washington Post that the International Committee of the Red Cross has accused the Israeli military of preventing ambulances from reaching at least 15 emaciated people for four days:

“What is going on in America? We have trillions for a war machine and banks while our government stands by and sniffs at the slaughter of innocents in Gaza, where Israel is blocking aid for wounded Palestinians. Here’s today’s Washington Post it says: The International Committee of the Red Cross said Thursday that it found at least 15 bodies and several children, emaciated but alive - - in a row of shattered houses in the Gaza strip and accused the Israeli military of preventing ambulances from reaching the site for four days. ...12 corpses lying on mattresses in one home, along with four young children lying next to their dead mothers." That’s a quote

“Today U.S. tax dollars, U.S. jets and U.S. helicopters provided to Israel are enabling the slaughter in Gaza. The Administration enables Israel to press forward with the attack against defenseless civilians; blocks efforts promoting a cease-fire at the UN; and refuses to make Israel comply with conditions that arms shipments not be used for aggression. Israel is going to receive $30 billion in a ten-year period for military assistance, without having to abide by any humanitarian principles, international laws or standards of basic human decency. Wake up America.”

http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/38784


"Go confidently in the direction of your dreams! Live the life you've imagined." -Henry David Thoreau

Tina January 8, 2009 - 7:44pm

Pasadena Independent Op Ed by Owen Brown

Over the past week Americans have been reminded that our tax dollars and our military unconditionally support of the Israeli government, an apartheid regime who’s treatment of Palestinians rivals and eerily resembles colonial settler’s treatment of the Native Americans.

Why then, do we do it?

The reason is simple: One well-paid, full time lobbyist trumps ten thousand appalled Americans who take no action.

This fundamental law of politics is usually most evident with regard to tariffs. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that hurt consumers but raise profits for domestic producers. For example, the United States imposes a heavy tariff on sugar imported into the United States. This is clearly against the interest of the American consumer, and ignores the principals of free trade.

However, this tariff exists and will never be repealed because even the informed American consumer does not find it in his best interest to take the time to write his congressman and demand a fair price for sugar. Meanwhile, the political action committee for American sugar producers donates a total of $3,249,000 to various candidates in the 2008 election cycle, as reported by the Center for Responsive Politics.

This is the reason America supports Israel. Pro-Israel political groups contributed over $9,750,000 to Congressional candidates last year, and this figure grossly underestimates the weight of the Israeli lobbying arm. Americans with ties to Israel vote for and donate to candidates who pander to them, just as fundamentalist Christians vote for politicians that earn the endorsement of the Christian Coalition.

Who stands up against Israeli lobbying groups? No one. Like the American consumer who notes the high cost of sugar, shrugs his shoulders, and moves on, the Americans that do find fault with US policy do not lobby to withdraw military funding and support to Israel. Concerned Americans refuse to speak out about the issue, often for fear of being labeled an anti-Semite. Therefore, a politician can only lose votes by opposing Israel.

One political entity that fiercely supports Israel’s military aggression is the U.S. weapons industry. Much of the foreign aid sent to Israel is used to purchase American weapons.

Though unconditional support of Israel may help shareholders of F-16 manufacturer Lockheed Martin, it is not in the best interest of the people of the United States.

Chickadee January 8, 2009 - 10:08pm

The editorial by Brown above pretty much nails it.

The USA will be ineffective because 1. we have already taken sides and are deeply invested in the side we have chosen and 2. our leaders, Obama included, could not politically survive and go against the huge machine that finances and supports Israel.

Obama's administration will do pretty much the same as Bush's - give some cursory lip service to peace, but in action support the Israeli warmongers.

Not much change I can believe in when it comes to American/Israeli politics.

yogi-one January 9, 2009 - 2:58am

I wonder how our world would be different today if, instead of entering WWII on the side of the allies, the US had backed Germany instead. After all, there was a huge Italian population in the states (with a powerful "enforcement" arm) and many prominent industrialists would have been solidly onside. (Well, I suppose there'd be no Israel/Palestine problem.)

The mind wanders on this track because of the news from Gaza of concentration camp images - weak, starving infants clinging to the corpses of dead mothers and so on. But the mirror's darkly altered reflection shows Israeli, not Nazi, soldiers preventing their rescue.

Chickadee January 9, 2009 - 8:12am

Popular mythology notwithstanding, Israel's existence and Palestinian anti-Semitism don't have much to do with the holocaust. Palestinian attacks on Jews began way back in the 19th century, long before the holocaust, and, of course, Jews have been residing on their land there for over 3,000 years. The problem isn't Israel, it's anti-Semitism. Pure and simple. This should be obvious by now. The comment above openly wishing that the Nazis had eliminated all of the Jews pretty much proves it. It's extraordinary that anyone would deny it at this point.

jonbrown January 9, 2009 - 11:21am

misunderstand a post? "Openly wishing that the Nazis had eliminated all the Jews"??? How on earth did you arrive at that disgusting and absurd point of view? It makes me physically sick. If you actually knew me, you'd be dumbfounded by such an ill-deserved accusation. In light of the present situation, when the US is positioned on the side of those who have unleashed such a vastly disproportinately violent attack on an all but defenseless population. The world knows that Israel is quite probably carrying out war crimes in Gaza and yet finds itself powerless to intervene. I had wondered aloud how the world might have been affected if, 60 years ago, the US had then also backed itself into a situation where they militarily equipped the aggressor, thereby enabling it. Thankfully, for all mankind, the Jews of Europe were finally rescued, in no small measure because of the militarily superior intervention of the USA in turning the tide of war. Sadly, it is unlikely that the relentless process of the apparent annihilation of the people of Gaza will have any such reversal.

Incidentally, since you yourself seem more than a little bit loose with the history of the local situation - and if, when the blood of children is flowing, history really matters - you might look into a very well condensed and balanced Mideast history. The site also includes numerous maps, etc.

History is a fraud. History is happening now. With each brutal civilian death in Gaza, a renewed appetite for revenge is surely born. Having ignored the collective will of the world's united nations, can Israel expect to defend itself from the violent future that it is, at this very moment, creating?

Chickadee January 9, 2009 - 3:02pm

that the very web site you linked (which seems to have an incorrect address)was the very same one that jonbrown linked some time ago to prove that Hamas was intent on destroying Israel. My full response to his post is below.

"Thanks for taking the time to respond in detail, and there's a lot in your position regarding willingness to negotiate that I don't disagree with. While I feel that the Mideast Web, which I discovered years ago, is somewhat tilted toward the Israeli position, it does at least go beyond most mainstream sources in providing some balance.

There's no question that the Hamas charter calls for the destruction of Israel, as did the PLO's under Arafat. But keep in mind that Arafat eventually rescinded this language, and, as per the articles that I linked in my previous comment, Hamas not only offered to do the same even before it was elected but also recognize Israel within its pre-1967 borders. I can understand why Israel might not accept the terms of that offer, but at least it's an offer. When it comes to negotiating with "terrorists," there are many instances in which yesterday's terrorists become today's or tomorrow's leaders (Begin, Shamir, Sharon all qualify based on their documented early history).

In addition, Hamas' offer was made when it was in fact a legitimately elected government able to represent Gaza (especially since its ejection of Fatah was not unprovoked). It looks as if Israel was the one in that case that rejected negotiations. Regarding Israeli willingness to trade land for peace, there's unfortunately a good deal of evidence, some of it from Sharon's right hand man, Dov Weisglas, that the withdrawal from Gaza was less to pursue peace than to shut down any negotiations with the Palestinian government altogether. The aftermath of the withdrawal was the sealing off of Gaza, leaving it far worse than it was under occupation. Now, I'm not claiming that the Palestinians haven't been guilty of sabotaging negotiations and that Arafat's incompetence didn't play a role in the demise of Camp David II; only that there is more than one side to this that needs to be taken into account."

You're correct, Chickadee, that his accounts play loose with history. For example, the claim that Jews have been residing in Palestine for 3,000 years only reflects a small, mostly orthodox population, that, by the way, opposed the Zionists, who started settling Palestine in the 1800s. I'm willing to acknowledge other points of view in this controversy and listen to new evidence, but making categorical statements makes it difficult to respond. The only other thing I'd take into consideration is that it's unthinkable that we would have sided with Germany under any circumstances given what it stood for.

Aguilar January 9, 2009 - 3:28pm

for bringing balance into the picture. I appreciate it. I also agree that my imagination definitely ventured into more than usually fanciful territory when considering other possible WWII alliances. Runaway imaginings need to be slapped down sometimes - preferably before hitting the "Post Comment" button.

I guess the correct mideast history link is here. While there are certainly excellent summaries of the history available elsewhere, this writer is pretty fair. It just seems to be in his links provided and several of the auxiliary pages that the train goes off the rails.

Chickadee January 9, 2009 - 3:57pm

Runaway imaginings need to be slapped down sometimes - preferably before hitting the "Post Comment" button. LOL


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena January 9, 2009 - 4:31pm

We will not sell our people or principles for foreign aid

Palestinians voted for Hamas because of our refusal to give up their rights. But we are ready to make a just peace

o Khalid Mish'al · Khalid Mish'al is head of the political bureau of Hamas
o The Guardian, Tuesday 31 January 2006

snip but read it all

Our message to the Israelis is this: we do not fight you because you belong to a certain faith or culture. Jews have lived in the Muslim world for 13 centuries in peace and harmony; they are in our religion "the people of the book" who have a covenant from God and His Messenger Muhammad (peace be upon him) to be respected and protected. Our conflict with you is not religious but political. We have no problem with Jews who have not attacked us - our problem is with those who came to our land, imposed themselves on us by force, destroyed our society and banished our people.

We shall never recognise the right of any power to rob us of our land and deny us our national rights. We shall never recognise the legitimacy of a Zionist state created on our soil in order to atone for somebody else's sins or solve somebody else's problem. But if you are willing to accept the principle of a long-term truce, we are prepared to negotiate the terms. Hamas is extending a hand of peace to those who are truly interested in a peace based on justice.

· Khalid Mish'al is head of the political bureau of Hamas hoood88@hotmail.com

found via Huff


"Go confidently in the direction of your dreams! Live the life you've imagined." -Henry David Thoreau

Tina January 9, 2009 - 4:28pm

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