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Tension in Zimbabwe


Zimbabweans voted yesterday in an election that I have been quite worried about. I am no oracle, and I can't immediately say it threatens to become a Kenya redux - but early warning signs are not encouraging.

As in the early stages of Kenya's conflict, the opposition is claiming victory based on partially available but unofficial results. Smart move? While they celebrate in the streets of Harare, Mugabe's camp is issuing some pretty ominous warnings:

George Charamba, Mugabe's spokesman, warned the MDC against an early victory claim.

"He announces results, declares himself and the MDC winner and then what? Declare himself president of Zimbabwe? It is called a coup d'etat and we all know how coups are handled," he told the state-run Sunday Mail newspaper.

Meanwhile, international observers have voiced ambivalent and contradictory opinions about whether the elections took place in a free and fair manner.

A report by Southern African observers says Zimbabwe's election was "peaceful and credible", two dissenting mission members said on Sunday.

South Africa's opposition Democratic Alliance, which had two representatives on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) observer mission, said they had refused to sign the preliminary report.

The DA said the SADC report had concluded that "despite a number of concerns, the elections were a peaceful and credible expression of the will of the people of Zimbabwe".

DA parliamentarian and mission member Diane Kohler Barnard said in a statement: "It is noteworthy that the words free and fair have not been used, which is the only standard with which to judge an election."

She added: "It is impossible for this deeply flawed electoral process to be viewed as a credible expression of the will of the people of Zimbabwe."

Meanwhile, the longer it takes for the official results to appear, the worse the situation could get. With competing claims of victory circulating, and results most likely known behind the scenes already, any stalling increases the likelihood of violence. If Mugabe announces a victory, the opposition will cry fraud. Then all it takes is a spark to set off the powderkeg.

If a crisis does come, let me take advantage of this moment to warn you not to accept narratives about "tribal conflict." Pay attention to the urban-rural split (the opposition dominates the city, Mugabe the country) and pay attention to where the loyalties of security forces lie. Obviously, Mugabe won't be able to crack down without their support.

(Cross-posted at The Seminal.)


Alex Thurston March 30, 2008 - 4:58pm
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( categories: Africa: Sub-Saharan | Analysis )

Mugabe May Be Headed for Election Defeat; MDC Claims Victory

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Zimbabwe's biggest opposition party claimed to have ended President Robert Mugabe's 28-year reign in elections on March 29 as the government delayed releasing official results.

The Movement for Democratic Change, led by Morgan Tsvangirai, obtained 67 percent of the vote with about a third of ballots counted, said MDC Secretary General Tendai Biti in an interview yesterday from Harare, the capital. ``Barring a miracle, Mugabe can't win,'' Biti said.

The party's claim of victory couldn't be verified independently. In elections in 2000, 2002 and 2005, early vote counts from urban areas put the MDC ahead before rural area results allowed Mugabe to claim victory.

The first results from the current elections were scheduled to be announced at 6 a.m., Zimbabwe time today, Agence France- Presse reported last night.

Mugabe, 84, was part of a generation of southern African leaders who liberated their countries from colonial rule, including Mozambique's Samora Machel, who died in a plane crash in 1986, and Namibia's Sam Nujoma, who stepped down in 2005. Led by Mugabe since he ousted the white-minority government in 1980, Zimbabwe has suffered a decade-long recession and the world's highest inflation rate, 100,580 percent, after his seizures of white-owned commercial farms caused export income to plummet.

``He is the last of that generation of leaders,'' said Chris Maroleng, an analyst at the Pretoria, South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies. ``They succumbed to the allure of power and status and in many ways the emancipatory ideals they used were lost in a quest to consolidate their power.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5m4ndH8Lhb0&refer=worldwide

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly March 30, 2008 - 5:54pm
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We'll see

How Mugabe reacts. Obviously I'm hoping for a smooth transition (and I'm rooting for him to lose), but it might not play out like that.

www.theseminal.com

Alex Thurston March 30, 2008 - 8:00pm
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Latest

Zimbabwe Opposition Parties Say Mugabe Is Poised to Claim Victory Today
By Peter Clottey
Washington, D.C.
01 April 2008

Zimbabwe’s opposition parties are reportedly accusing incumbent President Robert Mugabe’s government of a calculated plot to declare Mugabe winner of last Saturday’s elections. The opposition says it will happen today, when Mugabe declares himself duly elected. But government supporters dismiss the allegations as false and contemptible. The opposition claim follows what Mugabe opponents say is a deliberate attempt to release election results slowly in order to thwart any opposition upset.
http://voanews.com/english/Africa/2008-04-01-voa2.cfm

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly March 31, 2008 - 9:32pm
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Mugabe's got a problem

Civil war if he claims victory and a stint at the Hague if he loses.

He'll probably pack his ill-booten gotty and flee the country. But he's got to find someone who'll take him.

He's Roman Catholic, so he can't pull an Idi Amin and go to Saudi Arabia. Somehow, I don't think the Vatican will grant him sanctuary.

Petronius April 2, 2008 - 1:57am
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