Every paragraph is packed with insights into this terrible situation. I don't think I've read anything this cogent or perceptive in the press, and certainly nothing of this nature in the U.S. except for Juan Cole's blog.

Whilst Iraq can be said to be occupied, I doubt that the U.S. can properly be described as occupiers. We have failed from day one to provide basic security to the people of Iraq, so that they can go about their daily affairs without fear of death, injury, arbitrary arrest, and kidnapping. And this is compounded by our failure to provide basic necessities such as food, energy, water, sewerage, and transportation.

We are by-standers rather than occupiers, running a massive prison system and conducting periodic raids and arrests in the absence of any legal protections for Iraqis. We compound this with deadly airstrikes that kill as many civilians as "terrorists". Our troops clean up garbage occasionally, paint buildings, and dole out hundreds of millions of dollars to people who promise to stop killing us with roadside bombs. This is the extent of our occupying abilities.

The occupier isn't really occupying the country in any proper way. The federal government is powerless and acts like a court eunuch to the American overlord. The country is fragmented into ethnic and religious enclaves run by warlords, militia, religious parties, and thugs.

We have been warned in the U.S. that if we withdraw terrible things could happen. For example, Turkey might invade Iraq to put down the PKK. And here we are, with terrible things happening anyway despite our presence, or maybe because of our presence.

The status quo - surge and all - isn't working. The next disaster could be a renewal of the civil war. Since the U.S. is powerless to prevent that, it is time for the international community, or at least Iraq's neighbors, to figure out what to do. There seems to be only two choices: acknowledge the fragmentation and carve up Iraq into protectorates such as the Iranian south and Turkish north. Alternatively, seal the borders and let the civil war rage until the Iraqis accomplish their own Afghanistan fragmentation, or a strong leader like Saddam Hussein emerges and vanquishes all his foes.

Whether Turkey succeeds in its invasion, or instead gets dragged into an insurgent mess like the U.S. experienced, will inform us which of these two options will be taken. I suspect it will be the second.

oh goodie, now Iraq will have 2 occupiers

Turk envoy tells Iraq no timetable for pullout

By Ahmed Rasheed and Mohammed Abbas
Reuters
Wednesday, February 27, 2008

BAGHDAD: Turkey declined on Wednesday to give Baghdad a timetable for the withdrawal of troops fighting Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq, resisting pressure from the United States and other allies to end the offensive quickly.

"Our objective is clear, our mission is clear and there is no timetable until ... those terrorist bases are eliminated," Turkish envoy Ahmet Davutoglu told a news conference after talks in Baghdad with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari.

Thousands of Turkish troops crossed the border on Thursday to root out PKK fighters. The PKK has used remote mountainous northern Iraq as a base for their fight since the 1990s for self-rule in the mainly Kurdish southeast of Turkey.

Acting Iraqi Prime Minister Barham Saleh said a prolonged Turkish operation would lead to "dire" consequences for the region and repeated Baghdad's demand that the incursion end.

"This would be highly destabilising, it's dangerous to the stability of Iraq and the region as a whole," Saleh, a Kurd, told Reuters on the sidelines of an economic conference.

"This is a very dangerous, precarious situation."

Turkey's military General Staff said another 77 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels had been killed in heavy fighting since Tuesday night, taking the death toll among the rebels to 230 since Turkey's offensive began.

The United States and the European Union have expressed concern over the incursion. U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who is due to meet Turkish officials in Ankara on Thursday, said Turkey must limit its operations to days rather than months.

"It's very important that the Turks make this operation as short as possible and then leave, and to be mindful of Iraqi sovereignty," Gates told reporters in New Delhi before leaving for a previously scheduled trip to Ankara.

"I measure quick in terms of days, a week or two, something like that. Not months."

WEATHER IMPROVING

The Turkish General Staff said in a statement that five more Turkish soldiers had been killed since late Tuesday, taking their losses to 24. PKK claims that more than 100 Turkish troops have been killed could not be verified.

The Turkish statement said its forces had hit 475 new targets, including shelters, anti-aircraft facilities, training bases and command centres. It also said the weather was improving after advances were slowed by heavy snow in the remote, mountainous region of Iraq's Kurdistan.

On Tuesday, Iraq condemned the incursion as a violation of its sovereignty and, in its strongest comments so far, called for the immediate withdrawal of Turkish troops.

Ankara says it is engaged in a legitimate fight against what it and Washington describe as a terrorist organisation.

more

... it will be before the Peshmerga get involved. I've read that they are not involved as of yet.

"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

Let me add three observations as I've been writing on that for quite a while (in fact, the second half of my book, The Writing on the Wall, deals with the possibility and viability of an independent Kurdish state):
1. This is the PKK's last stand. At the last elections in Turkey, Erdogan's party has made such significant inroads in southern Turkey that the PKK is fearing to lose all their public support there. Moderate Kurds put their hopes on the AKP to get some reforms done. The PKK is deliberately trying to lure Turkey into an Afghanistan-like trap to get them bogged down in a guerilla war there - that's their last hope. Erdogan tries to prevent this by all means but he's involved in a power struggle with the Turkish deep state and military hardliners so he can't afford to lose face on that front. At the end of the day, military hardliners in Turkey and the PKK are the ones who want this to escalate.
2. Don't count on the international community. The US is as disliked in Turkey as anywhere else in the region and their word carries as much weight among the Turkish people in the street as Micronesia's. The EU has lost all leverage on Turkey due to France's, Germany's, Austria's et al. xenophobic opposition to Turkish EU membership. As much as regional powers like Iran, Iraq and Syria may disagree on other issues, they're united in their never-let-it-happen stance of a Kurdish state. In fact, the Kurds' sole ally in the region is Israel.
3. The utter hypocrisy in this is Washington's. The Bush administration supports the Turkish invasion to brown-nose their allies in the Turkish military but only to an extent that doesn't destroy the PKK completely - they need them as collaborators in their alliance with PJAK to destabilize the regime in Iran. As much as the US and Turkey are allies in NATO, the US and PJAK (with the PKK acting as intermediary) in their efforts for regime change in Tehran.