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A Case Study In AusterityGreece and her debt is back in the news, ahead of a possible default on bonds valued at 14.5 billion euros next month. Greece is asking for 130 billion euros to give it some stability going forward. The bone of contention is apparently pension reform. 300 million euros stand between Greece and 130 billion euros. Go fig. This is not the first time Greece has been in imminent danger of collapse. Just two years ago, you may recall, in the face of violent opposition from her people, Greece agreed to an austerity program to avoid default (and forcible ejection from the EU). Those austerity measures have proven ineffectual in propping up the Greek economy, which continues to suffer one of the worst recessions in its history and one of the worst in Europe in this economic cycle. Meanwhile, the people who sit in judgement of their wrongs (*koffkoffGermanykoffkoff*) have criticized the Greek government for failing to follow through on economic reforms that would stimulate the economy. Um, what? You basically turn off the taps, take away the faucet handle, and then tell the Greeks they need to get more water. Effectively, 40% of the Greek GDP is cut-off. That's like telling someone to run down to the corner, but don't use your left ankle. Admittedly, that 40% is inflated since much of the spending the government did in the past decade was to improve Athens for the 2004 Olympics, which helped spur sustained growth of 4% for the decade of the '00s. Not too bad a return, but...there was a long-term debt crisis unfolding, even as cheap credit available on the foreign exchanges, and through the European Central Bank-- prompted by the actions of the US Federal Reserve in keeping interest rates ultralow when it wasn't really necessary, it should be pointed out-- and now that chicken has come home to roost. There are no easy solutions, barring a miraculous uptick in...well, something. Tourism, perhaps, but that's only 15% of GDP. The largest component of GDP is services, with nearly 80% of the economy (and 65% of the workforce) tied up in that sector. But services assume people are spending, which they are not. Austerity is clearly not the answer here. There's a hint to what the solution is in those sector numbers. Actor 212 February 9, 2012 - 10:35am
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