A Case Study In Austerity


Greece and her debt is back in the news, ahead of a possible default on bonds valued at 14.5 billion euros next month.

Greece is asking for 130 billion euros to give it some stability going forward. The bone of contention is apparently pension reform. 300 million euros stand between Greece and 130 billion euros.

Go fig.

This is not the first time Greece has been in imminent danger of collapse. Just two years ago, you may recall, in the face of violent opposition from her people, Greece agreed to an austerity program to avoid default (and forcible ejection from the EU).

Those austerity measures have proven ineffectual in propping up the Greek economy, which continues to suffer one of the worst recessions in its history and one of the worst in Europe in this economic cycle.

Meanwhile, the people who sit in judgement of their wrongs (*koffkoffGermanykoffkoff*) have criticized the Greek government for failing to follow through on economic reforms that would stimulate the economy.

Um, what? You basically turn off the taps, take away the faucet handle, and then tell the Greeks they need to get more water. Effectively, 40% of the Greek GDP is cut-off. That's like telling someone to run down to the corner, but don't use your left ankle.

Admittedly, that 40% is inflated since much of the spending the government did in the past decade was to improve Athens for the 2004 Olympics, which helped spur sustained growth of 4% for the decade of the '00s.

Not too bad a return, but...there was a long-term debt crisis unfolding, even as cheap credit available on the foreign exchanges, and through the European Central Bank-- prompted by the actions of the US Federal Reserve in keeping interest rates ultralow when it wasn't really necessary, it should be pointed out-- and now that chicken has come home to roost.

There are no easy solutions, barring a miraculous uptick in...well, something. Tourism, perhaps, but that's only 15% of GDP. The largest component of GDP is services, with nearly 80% of the economy (and 65% of the workforce) tied up in that sector.

But services assume people are spending, which they are not.

Austerity is clearly not the answer here. There's a hint to what the solution is in those sector numbers.


Actor 212 February 9, 2012 - 10:35am

When you have your own currency you can keystroke money. Since wages are sticky you level your economy relative to other economies via a currency devalued against those other external currencies. Works especially well, I imagine because I am not an economist, in a tourist heavy economy.

The downside is a short term misery, you know just like they are suffering now, while you make the arrangements to get out of the Euro and do your own money. For the upside see Argentina, or the similar but different case Iceland.

Jeff Wegerson February 9, 2012 - 1:32pm

Argentina was starting to get its economy moving again in the mid-00s, but the world economic downturn levelled them again. They're in really tough shape and inflation is an issue down there now.

Actor 212 February 10, 2012 - 9:59am

and losing euro status is that it would take a nanosecond to move virtually all currency out of Greece. There would be no euros left to convert to drachmas.

The deal is inked I understand. Europe will continue to have a deep and abiding interest in Union, and this issue will resolve with the European Union intact. It is the vision of many thousands of years. I see the Carolignian Empire when I watch France and Germany band together on this issue. It was always Spain, Italy and (sometimes Greece) the Germans and French were called on to save.

To watch Syria today is also to go back in time, Edessa.

Scotjen61 February 9, 2012 - 3:16pm

Posted on Wed, Feb. 08, 2012

Greek austerity moves leave nation's economic safety net in tatters

Roy Gutman | McClatchy Newspapers

last updated: February 08, 2012 06:56:28 PM

PERAMA, Greece — The shipyards are deserted in this town just west of Piraeus, Greece's main port, and unemployment hovers at 60 percent. The country is at the edge of bankruptcy, and with more government spending cuts looming, newly impoverished Greeks are turning to charity for health care, medicines and food.

The Greek branch of Doctors of the World, a French-founded relief group renowned for aiding war victims and impoverished immigrants, now has a clinic in Perama, where 80 or more people line up three days a week. To cope with demand, the group plans to operate the clinic seven days a week.

Panagiotis Alexius has been coming in for free medicines and a dosage of oxygen since the clinic opened in February 2010. For 40 years he worked in the nearby shipyards, or abroad, spraying a toxic mix of chemicals and sand on ship hulls. Disabled by a rare lung disease in 2002, he received disability payments. But he's now fallen through Greece's safety net: He is officially assessed as 67 percent disabled, but the threshold for government support has been raised to 80 percent.

Because of an unpaid tax bill from 10 years ago, Alexius is barred from receiving government-paid health services.

"Greece is a total mess on these issues," he told a visiting reporter. "I searched for help at the ministry, but it was difficult to figure out what is going on."

His six children, only two of whom are employed, help pay his electricity and food bills.

As Greece's political leaders struggle to reach an agreement with international lenders before a March 30 deadline, the toll is growing from an austerity program that promises only to get tougher. Greece has been living beyond its means for decades, and now the little man is paying the price.

Professionals who do vital government jobs are in dire straits, with take-home salaries now cut to as low as $860 a month, or $10,300 a year. The private sector, too, is about to feel the squeeze. Earlier this week, political leaders agreed in principle to cut the minimum monthly wage in the private sector to $750 from $1,000.

Optimism is in short supply, both among the country's leading economics experts and at the volunteer doctors clinic in Perama.

According to Dr. Nikitas Kanakis, the dentist who's president of the Greek branch of Doctors of the World, the number of patients coming through the door of the group's Perama clinic has quadrupled in the past two years. Eight in 10 patients now are Greeks, four times what it had been.

"It's a shocking time," he told McClatchy. "The state doesn't know who's poor or who's vulnerable. People used to be able to get money and find a doctor. Now everything is breaking down."

Many who seek help at the clinic have incomes of no more than $260 a month, and others have nothing at all, he said.

The doctors group has been handing out 45-pound food parcels to families since December — 4,000 around the country, 1,000 in Perama alone.

"I think we are the sole support for at least 300 families here," he said.

All medicines are donated. When a new cancer patient arrives, Kanakis issues a community appeal, and locals donate their leftover pills. "It's a Greek thing," he said of the practice, something not seen even in most war zones.

more
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/02/08/v-print/138300/greek-austerity-moves-leave-nations.html

Tina February 10, 2012 - 12:10am

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