Time To Short Ldk?
Q: I like your strategy Luth. I am going to go for ENER. I was going to buy today, but held off. I am going to sell my RIMM buy Thursday after the quarterly report, whether it is a loss or win. And then move to ENER. I think the bank stocks make get a big jump Thursday, because Mark to Market is being restructured. I am too heavily in BAC now, so I would only go for Wells Fargo if that dropped tomorrow heavily. Otherwise, ENER makes a lot of sense. I have a feeling we are on a good roll now. I am also seeing a light at the end of the tunnel for STP. LDK I continue to be puzzled about, and will wait for the quarterly report. I want to know more about the inventories and their debt.
A: Sounds like a good strategy -- I'm also eying the financials not to miss the big move up -- I'm about 90% certain I'll be exchanging some SPWRA for BAC tomorrow -- C is too much of a wild card for me. Looks like both the Chinese and Japanese solar subsidies are already priced in -- but who knows what happens next for sure. I do think that buying ENER at $13 is a no-brainer though --- that's such an easy and 100% certain double in weeks to come it's ridiculous. LDK is now at CSIQ/ YGE levels + STP is like double of LDK in terms of PPS. STP is actually very dangerous at these levels -- trading at P/E higher than ENER/SPWRA????? STP is a sell for sure. In general, I still like TSL and CSIQ the best of all Chinese solars due to their sane management and better potential investment returns. I am long on BAC, but there is a short play that can be made I think this week. If mark to market is reformed Thursday, BAC will probably jump to 8.40. At 8.40 there is serious resistance and it has not really been able to get over it. It may possibly go over it with the mark to market news, but a safe play would be just to sell at 8.40. I am not selling, but a lot of people are. Of course there is the danger that mark to market will no be reformed, and then there is a possibility for a serious decline to below 6. But even if it is not reformed, I will hold, because I am by now averaged in at 4.6, and feel comfortable with my position. The one place I think I will lose money this week is RIMM. But I am betting on a tech rally to lift the stocks, and RIMM would be a prime candidate for me to come out with a Bullish outlook Thursday. Nevertheless, day by day I am losing confidence in that company. Since investing in the company, I have become obsessed with looking at what devices people on the underground use to check their e-mails, and get disappointed when its not a Blackberry.