The Use Of Stats

Q: I hope that this can provoke a reasoned discussion of the use of stats in evaluating ballplayers. This is not a put down of the so-called "statheads" nor is it intended to say that stats have no place in baseball. Obviously they do. But througout the entire Rey debate, and elsewhere, there are stats quoted to support a particular point of view about the value of a player. There are others who feel that stats are valuable, but don't tell the whole story. There are others who seem inclined to dismiss stats all together (particularly when it comes to defense). What I would like some reaction to is the recently released free agent rankings. For the purposes of this discussion, I will refer to the AL rankings of players. I know that this is a Mets ng, and the posters here are probably more familiar with NL players. But I think the AL rankings give a better illustration of what I am talking about. According the the AL rankings, compiled by the Elias Sports Bureau, and based soley on various statistical rankings, Bernie Williams is the best player among all American League DH's, First Basemen and Outfielders. Second is Mo Vaughn. Then, Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Rusty Greer, Tim Salmon, Albert Belle and Paul O'Neil. Can anyone explain to me by what formula Bernie Williams ranks better than Ken Griffey? Griffey is only the sixth best in this group???? Rusty Greer is better than Albert Belle? Can anyone honestly say that all things being equal, and leaving all money and personality issues aside, that they would not take Griffey and Belle over Williams and Greer? Turning to the infield, we find that Derek Jeter is the top rated shortstop; he is the second rated player among all 2b, 3b and ss. (Robbie Alomar is first.) Garciaparra is the second rated shortstop. ARod is third. The top 6 in this category are Alomar, Jeter, Fryman, Garciaparra, Knoblauch (???!!!) and ARod. Is it just me, or is the order completely reveresed here? Given your pick of shortstops, and again with money and personality not at issue, who would you pick first from among this group: ARod, Garciaparra, Jeter? I know that this is the order I would rank them. My point here is: Stats can be misleading. Perhaps someone responding to this will be able to make a case as to why these numbers and rankings make sense. I would welcome the explanation. They are based solely on numbers, not on my "bias". And, it seems to me, that the numbers produce results which are out of touch with reality. I look forward to the responses!

A: Stats can definitely be misleading if they are just thrown together with little thought. I don't think much of Elias's

rating system, which completely ignores a whole bunch of important factors like park effects, linear weighting, and positional differences to name a few, while using others somewhat irrationally, like playing time (or lack of it, rookies get stiffed here because Elias looks at the past 2 years without averaging), and the arbitrary weights they give to some categories. I don't think they take into account defense, but if they do, they probably only take into account fielding percentage or at the most, range factor. I wouldn't put too much faith in those rankings. They are only used to determine compensation for free agents, and for the most part, they serve their purpose.