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The Jehoshua Novels


Russia To Send Troops To Iraq?

40,000 troops and an agreement ‘in principle’ say sources

Russia, reports Stratfor, is seriously considering sending up to 40,000 troops to Iraq. If so, this has the potential to seriously affect the ongoing situation in Iraq and the campaign at home.

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Moscow and Washington are quietly negotiating a request by the Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, Russian government sources tell Stratfor. The talks are intense, our contacts close to the U.S. State Department say, and the timing is not insignificant. A Russian troop lift to either country before the U.S. presidential election would give U.S. President George W. Bush a powerful boost in the campaign.

Russia, as Stratfor reports, has agreed ‘in principle’:

Sources close to Russia’s Security Council tell Stratfor that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to the request “in principle” and has directed the Russian General Staff to work up a plan by the end of the month.

The size of the contigent is significant as well, leaving room for the United States to act more pro-actively in the region:

If a troop agreement is reached, the Bush administration would enjoy not only a timely spike in the polls during the campaign season, but also the strategic, long-term benefit of having a sizable contingent — as many as 40,000, Stratfor sources say — of Russian troops relieve beleaguered American forces and free them up for regional purposes beyond Iraq.

There are also some details, but no unit IDs as of yet:

Formations considered for the Russian deployment include three mechanized infantry divisions and one airborne brigade, Russian military sources say.

There is, perhaps, a price for Russian deployment:

The Prime Minister’s office has issued a directive to the ministry to prepare a Russian “wish list” for Washington seeking some level of quid pro quo, including steps to return Russian oil companies to Iraq and approval of Russia’s joining the World Trade Organization.

More as it develops.

Originally posted Fri Jul 16th, 2004 at 07:02:49 PM CST

21 comments to Russia To Send Troops To Iraq?

  • Anonymous

    This is not about the military component, but related in the sense of Russia’s proposed involvement in Iraq:

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to hold talks in Paris, meet with UNESCO chief

    http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=1044582&PageNum=0

    16.07.2004, 02.34

    PARIS, July 16 (Itar-Tass) — Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday will hold negotiations with French officials in Paris and have a meeting with UNESCO’s Director-General Koichiro Matsuura.

    Lavrov arrived in Paris Thursday evening after a working visit to Italy.

    The Russian foreign minister’s one-day visit to Paris will begin with a meeting with Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin. After that Ivanov will be received by President Jacques Chirac.

    In the afternoon Lavrov will hold negotiations in private with his French counterpart Michel Barnier.

    The Russian foreign minister’s talks with French officials will focus on the implementation of resolutions by the Moscow Russia-E.U. summit meeting on the settlement of problems causing Moscow’s concerns following the E.U.’s expansion.

    Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko has said Russia is experiencing major problems hindering cargo traffic to its westernmost exclave region of Kaliningrad.

    Special attention will be paid to the forthcoming meeting of the Russian-French commission for cooperation at the head of government level, as well as interaction in high technology industries, specifically, aircraft building and space.

    The outlook for effecting the adapted treaty on conventional forces in Europe and spreading its operation on the Baltic countries will be discussed, too.

    Iraq will feature prominently on the agenda of Lavrov’s talks in Paris.

    “Russia and France are unanimous the United Nations must play the central role in that country and have a specific mandate matching its Charter and potential,” Yakovenko said. “As before, our countries believe it would be useful to hold an international forum on Iraq.”

    In Rome the Russian Foreign Minister earned support from the Italian leadership for holding an international conference on Iraq.

    “Rome will do its utmost to help this initiative materialize as soon as possible,” Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said.

    © ITAR-TASS. All right reserved. You undertake not to copy, store in any medium (including in any other website), distribute, transmit, re-transmit, broadcast, modify or show in public any part of the ITAR-TASS website without the prior written permission of ITAR-TASS.contact phone.: (095) 202 1127, 202 1295, 290 4468, 229 2864, 229 4171; ????: (095) 202 5474 e-mail: rusmarket@itar-tass.com

     

  • Anonymous

    Italy supports Russia’s plan to hold int’l meeting on Iraq

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-07/16/content_1605071.htm

    2004-07-16 10:06:58

        ROME, July 15 (Xinhuanet) — Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini declared Thursday that Italy supported the plan presented by Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold an international meeting on the Iraq issue.

        Frattini made the comments after meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, who is visiting Italy and met with senior Vatican officials and Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi earlier in the day.

        At a joint press conference, Frattini said that the meeting, aimed to coordinate different views of all sides involved, is a key way to solve the Iraq problem.

        He stressed that Italy will continue its efforts in solving the Iraq problem.

        Besides, both ministers declared that a global fight against terrorism must be carried out in full respect of international lawand human rights.

        They also said that the two countries should coordinate their efforts in the reform process of the UN Security Council.

        Frattini praised Russia’s political and economic reform plan, and said that Italy would continue to encourage investment of Italian companies in Russia.

        He announced that Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi will a hold a summit meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow in November. Enditem

  • Anonymous

     Why is the participation of Russian troops supposed to bring about an upward spike in the polls for Bush? I would think Americans will not like it, not at all. I mean, what happened to hegemony?

  • Anonymous

    Russian soldiers in Iraq? Well, I suppose Bush needs some country to help him out, and yes, the Russians will receive lots of goodies in return; but Russian soldiers in Afghanistan? Um, does anyone else foresee problems with that?

  • Anonymous

    …if the American voter wouldn’t grab onto this like a lifeline. They’re so desperate for a disengagement, that anything that doesn’t look exactly like turning tail and running is viable, and even that will be, eventually. All they know is that their guys are in the middle of meat grinder that they [the public] don’t understand and they [the military] don’t seem to be able to stop. The American public is rapidly reaching the point where they just want it all to go away, no matter the cost.

    That’s if this even comes off at all (and I tend to think that it’d be monumentally unwise) — where are 40,000 Russian troops of sufficient quality for an occupation intended to teach folks to “love freedom” (i.e. no Grozny’s) supposed to come from? Yeah, the old Russians against the new generation of muj — that’ll play really well on al-Jaz (and every other jihadi server from here to Timbuktu). I’d expect muj recruitment to go through the roof — it’d be the final validation of Islam under threat that everyone needs.

  • Anonymous

    Could this be another trap for Russia… their second Afghanistan ?

    I was one of those who thought Putin would be wiser !!??

  • Anonymous

    What if the Russian troops were intended to establish border security, particularly along the Syrian border (a country that the Russian/Soviet military had a long working relationship with).  This would keep the Russians out of contact with pretty much the entire Iraqi population and cut off one of the significant sources of external support for the insugancy.  Isn’t 40,000 just about the number that people have been talking about as a minimum for border security in Iraq?

  • Anonymous

    It all comes down to money.  If Russia can get major concessions over oil and WTO inclusion – they will probably go for it.  Russia is barely a democracy as it is now, so Putin doesn’t have to worry about an uprising from his people over the move as well.

  • Anonymous

    Please, for the sake of all mankind, do not conclude/sign an agreement to send 40,000 troops to support George Bush and help his reelection. Discuss this perhaps, but leave the decision until after the election – thus denying reelection for Bush. jd (andy)

  • Anonymous

    in the Western press yet. Is odd. Stratfor says Russian government sources gave them this story. So what is the possible motive for these sources to give Stratfor alone this story (so far, that is)?

    BTW, I just checked UPI, which often has good diplomatic pieces, and this instead is the Russian piece which they have prominently promoted on their home page with the following blurb:

    —–

    UPI

    U.S. turns heat on Russia in WTO entry bid

    The United States this week upped the stakes in World Trade Organization talks, held in Geneva, where members examined Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organization. The United States urged Moscow to come up with better market-opening offers for goods and services, and also asked Moscow to take swift action to stem proliferating intellectual-property rights abuses, senior trade diplomats said.

    http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040716-091648-3933r

  • Anonymous

    You know, I really debated whether or not to post this. In the end it seemed compelling. But I still have qualms.

    What are the motives for the KGBniks that inform Stratfor about these things?

    There isn’t any mention of it in the Russia press, however, I’m seeing it get chatted up on a lot of Russian language BBs.

    This whole thing with Putin buddying up to W is strange I tell ya. Very odd.

  • Anonymous

    the article specifically mentions the Russians going to the Sunni triangle.

  • Anonymous

    if you woulda kept this from us, and we found out, we might have started up a lynch mob or somethin’ :-)

  • Anonymous

    when I hear stuff like that. Glad to have you around to keep me honest.

  • Anonymous

    the Russian language press last night. Nothing particularly interesting. I also tried to see what Senior Bush Admin officials had been in Russia lately. The only one of think has been in Russia lately is actually Condi. If memory serves me correctly she was there about a month ago? No?

    I’ll try to report more on the Russian press stuff later.

  • Anonymous

    So you’re saying “Screw Iraq and their security situation, we have an election to win”?  According to Mr. Moore, you seem to have some things in common with the current administration.

  • Anonymous

    Jul 19 2004 2:07PM

    France, Italy support Russian proposal regarding Iraq – minister

    http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/28.html?id_issue=10686073

    MOSCOW. July 19 (Interfax) – France and Italy have supported Russia’s proposal to hold an international conference on Iraq, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told President Vladimir Putin on Monday.

    During a meeting last week, French President Jacques Chirac and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi “confirmed their support of the Russian initiative to have an international conference on Iraq,” he said.

    Chirac and Berlusconi said that the conference needs to be thoroughly prepared and proper conditions must be created in Iraq for holding it, Lavrov said.

    Russia suggested holding an international conference on Iraq as part of general efforts to make Iraq a peace-loving and stable democratic country, in which equal rights are guaranteed for citizens regardless of nationality and religion. Moscow has said it believes this can be achieved through sustainable development of the political process in Iraq on a broad basis with the UN playing a central role.

  • Anonymous

    Are these 40,000 troops to safeguard Russian controlled oil wells in Iraq?

  • Anonymous

    and nonsense”,said the director of strategies and technology Ruslan Puchov

    read this:
    http://www.izvestia.ru/politic/article207000

  • Anonymous

    above, posted anonymously, from Izvestia.

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