Iraq & Afghanistan Update/ Sept 20

Sept 20

CIA expanding presence in Afghanistan

The CIA is deploying teams of spies, analysts and paramilitary operatives to Afghanistan, part of a broad intelligence "surge" that will make its station there among the largest in the agency's history, U.S. officials say.

When complete, the CIA's presence in the country is expected to rival the size of its massive stations in Iraq and Vietnam at the height of those wars. Precise numbers are classified, but one U.S. official said the agency already has nearly 700 employees in Afghanistan.

The influx parallels the U.S. military expansion and comes as the nation's spy services are under pressure from Army Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal to improve intelligence on the Taliban and find ways to reverse a series of unsettling trends.

Silly me, I thought the civilian surge meant more PRT's etc,.... ~ tina

Iraq helicopter crash kills U.S. soldier

A U.S. soldier was killed and twelve others wounded when their helicopter crashed in the U.S. military's main airbase in Iraq, the military said in a statement on Sunday.

The helicopter went down over joint base Balad, about 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, at 8 p.m. (1700 GMT) on Saturday, the statement said. U.S. officials were not immediately available to comment on the suspected cause of the crash.


Tina September 20, 2009 - 9:19am
( categories: AgonistWire | Afghanistan | Iraq )

(AFP) – 22 hours ago

KIRKUK, Iraq — Three people suspected of stealing valuable artefacts dating as far back as the Sumerian period, were arrested near the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk on Saturday, the army said.

"A specialist army and intelligence unit arrested three people involved in the theft and trafficking of Iraqi antiquities" in the region of Abassi, west of Kirkuk, General Abdel Amir al-Zaidi told journalists.

He said eight pieces were recovered during the arrests, including the head of a Sumerian king. The Sumerian period dates from 4,000 BC to 2,000 BC.

"The group were selling some of the pieces for up to 160,000 dollars," Zaidi said, noting that the funds received from the sales were being used to finance "terrorist actions."

more

Tina September 20, 2009 - 9:44am

* Iraqi natural gas would be shipped to Europe under MOU
* Deal would boost Nabucco project

ANKARA, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Turkey and Iraq have discussed signing a memorandum of understanding to ship Iraqi gas to Europe via Turkey through the planned Nabucco pipeline, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said on Saturday.

Turkey and four European Union countries signed a transit deal in July for the $7.9 billion euro EU-backed pipeline to carry Caspian and Middle Eastern gas to central Europe, aiming to cut dependency on Russia.

No concrete supply deals have yet been signed for Nabucco, which plans to pump 31 billion cubic metres of gas to Europe by 2014, but backers of the Vienna-based consortium have said Iraq could be among the suppliers.

Azerbaijan and even Russia and Turkmenistan have also been eyed as potential suppliers.

Yildiz did not provide more details of the possible MOU with neighbouring Iraq.

more

Tina September 20, 2009 - 9:47am

With scores of "agents, analysts and paramilitary" saying goodbye to the wife and kids and about to hop on the next plane for Kabul, a first priority will obviously be the ability to not stick out like a sore thumb when you get there. It's a very big challenge in that neighborhood. So I've taken the liberty of recommending the following field kit. Other recommendations warmly welcomed.

- A burqa or chador, preferably somewhat soiled (with Afghan, not American dirt), and voluminous enough to hide your regulation spy gear as below.
- An "Afghan Languages For Dummies" pack with dictionaries and local pronunciation guides for the principal languages. Probably Dari, Pashto, Urdu, Farsi, maybe a smattering of Baluchi, Pashai, Nuristani, etc. Passable Chinese and Russian will definitely come in handy, too. It's kind of a big problem. (You'll probably never be able to write or read the languages. Don't worry. Most Afghans can't either. You're supposed to be fitting in.)
- An up-to-date map. (The CIA reportedly purchased its maps for the Afghan invasion from a small outfit in Vancouver, Canada, but they sold out long ago. I could be wrong. That might have been for Iraq. I mix up my invasions sometimes.)
- A well-thumbed Koran.
- An opium pipe.
- A fake olive (the traditional hidden recording device for spies. Hopefully, contemporary spy olives also include a little camera.)
- Sunglasses might be a better alternative for recording and snooping, but they look pretty dorky and it's doubtful they could have been bought in Afghanistan, unless there's a Spies R Us shop somewhere.
- Lots and lots and lots of money for bribing.
- A cyanide pill. Why? If you need to ask you aren't ready for the answer.
- Your Will.

Oodles more James Bond-y spy stuff you might optionally want to include here but most of it would probably defy tucking under your burqa.

Good CIA disguise.
CIA Agents on the move.
(Heard on the street: "Looks like a new family's arrived in town. Let's greet them warmly and tell them our secrets.")

Bad CIA disguise

(Heard on the street: "Why my goodness, Mullah. Look at those two over there. They're practically invisible. Must be foreigners trying to infiltrate us.")

Chickadee September 20, 2009 - 6:08pm

September 16 | Foreign Policy

Objective 1. Disrupt terrorist networks in Afghanistan and especially Pakistan to degrade any ability they have to plan and launch international terrorist attacks.

Metrics: Please see the attached classified annex.

Objective 2a. Assist efforts to enhance civilian control and stable constitutional government in Pakistan.

Metrics:

1. Progress towards Pakistan's civilian government and judicial system becoming stable and free of military involvement
2. Pakistan's actions to take necessary steps to ensure economic and financial stability, job creation, and growth
3. Support for human rights
4. Development of an enduring, strategic partnership between the U.S. and Pakistan
5. Pakistani public opinion of government performance
6. Demonstrable action by government against corruption, resulting in increased trust and confidence of the Pakistani public

more

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 20, 2009 - 9:32pm

Eric Scmitt & Thom Schanker | Washington D.C. | September 20

NYT - The top military commander in Afghanistan warns in a confidential assessment of the war there that he needs additional troops within the next year or else the conflict “will likely result in failure.”

The grim assessment is contained in a 66-page report that the commander, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, submitted to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Aug. 30, and which is now under review by President Obama and his top national security advisers.

The disclosure of details in the assessment, reported Sunday night by The Washington Post, coincided with new skepticism expressed by President Obama about sending any more troops into Afghanistan until he was certain that the strategy was clear.

His remarks came as opposition to the eight-year-old war within his own party is growing.

more

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 21, 2009 - 7:36am

Bob Woodward | Washington D.C. | September 20

WaPo - The top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan warns in an urgent, confidential assessment of the war that he needs more forces within the next year and bluntly states that without them, the eight-year conflict "will likely result in failure," according to a copy of the 66-page document obtained by The Washington Post.

Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal says emphatically: "Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) -- while Afghan security capacity matures -- risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible."

His assessment was sent to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Aug. 30 and is now being reviewed by President Obama and his national security team.

McChrystal concludes the document's five-page Commander's Summary on a note of muted optimism: "While the situation is serious, success is still achievable."

But he repeatedly warns that without more forces and the rapid implementation of a genuine counterinsurgency strategy, defeat is likely. McChrystal describes an Afghan government riddled with corruption and an international force undermined by tactics that alienate civilians.

more

[Comment: Woodward? So it's to be an establishment PR offensive, then? And so the show begins. I look forward to this not at all. ~ JPD]

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 21, 2009 - 7:54am

McChrystal was happy to take kudos for the 'Helmand surge' but now things are not so great so it is McKiernan's fault :) and this from Asia Times today- it will be Pakistan's fault:

For example, Washington has pressed for a ground assault against militants in the South Waziristan tribal area, stronghold of the slain Baitullah Mehsud. The army, for tactical reasons, is unwilling to send in troops as it believes the casualties would be too high, and with no guarantee of success. The government in Islamabad has put its full weight in favor of immediate military operations.

Zardari argues that by not conducting operations, the militants will be able to regroup and fight back. This is already happening.

In New York, Zardari will argue that any lapse in Pakistan, al-Qaeda's international headquarters and the strategic backyard of the Taliban, would be disastrous. The US will be listening, and also hoping that its main ally in the region can sort out its internal divisions, otherwise the entire American political and military initiative undertaken by the Obama administration will be jeopardy.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

Tina September 21, 2009 - 8:35am

...little adventure that were legitimately Pakistan's fault, it would go on for some pages. If by bizarre quirk of fate I end up dragooned into being a political decision maker - I swear once my country's interests are minded I will never, ever, ever overlook a chance to use the tools available me to blade the Pakistani military/intelligence establishment. I know of too many of my countrymen taking dirtnaps ultimately because those jerks wanted to have their cake and eat it too.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 21, 2009 - 11:28am

it silly that to say unless Pakistan attacks S Waziristan the US plan will fail or be in jeaopardy? Especialy since McChrystal and Obama want a NEW stategy. I find that disingenuous and a cop out - especially since the US can send the drones into the area at will.

edited

Tina September 21, 2009 - 1:30pm

out the part on if part of this could be tied up with the aid package to Pakistan. I had thought I had my dates were messed up, but not lol

U.S. Fears Pakistan Aid Will Feed Graft

By JANE PERLEZ
Published: September 20, 2009

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — As the United States prepares to triple its aid package to Pakistan — to a proposed $1.5 billion over the next year — Obama administration officials are debating how much of the assistance should go directly to a government that has been widely accused of corruption, American and Pakistani officials say.

Tina September 21, 2009 - 2:54pm

...is actually a USG construct (i.e., it may be more the author's take). Me, I tend to think that they're at least as concerned about North Waziristan (home to the Haqqani network). The key factor here is cross-border supply and sanctuary - every time that we get an indication that someone will help us undercut it, we need to press for as much as we can. The drones are decent at hitting key individuals (if one closes one's eyes to the long-term effects of the collateral), but I don't think that's a long-term strategy - it buys time and can help set conditions to achieve other things, but indefinite whack a mole doesn't seem to me to achieve much, long-term on the ground in Afghanistan.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 21, 2009 - 4:38pm

Richard A. Oppel & Archie Tse | Kabul | September 20

NYT - Nearly one in four votes in last month’s Afghan presidential elections were cast at polling stations now subject to a recount and audit for possible fraud, a huge number that underscores the possibility that President Hamid Karzai could face a runoff, according to an analysis of Afghan national election commission data by The New York Times.

About a third of Mr. Karzai’s 3.1 million votes were cast at polling stations that face a recount and audit of ballot boxes, according to The Times’s analysis of data released by the country’s Independent Election Commission.

The analysis suggests that the magnitude of the fraud review is far greater than what has generally been understood. Last week, election officials said about 10 percent of polling stations would be subject to an examination ordered by the Electoral Complaints Commission, a United Nations-backed organization that is the ultimate arbiter of election results.

But that figure vastly understates the scope of the fraud review, the Times analysis found.

Based on the criteria set by the Electoral Complaints Commission, almost 3,000 of the 23,000 polling stations would be subject to the fraud review. Moreover, those polling stations account for a large proportion of ballots, some 1.35 million of 5.66 million total votes, the analysis showed.

more

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 21, 2009 - 7:50am

Prisoner Abuse Continues at Bagram Prison in Afghanistan

By Matthias Gebauer, John Goetz and Britta Sandberg

US President Barack Obama has spoken out against CIA prisoner abuse and wants to close Guantanamo. But he tolerates the existence of Bagram military prison in Afghanistan, where more than 600 people are being held without charge. The facility makes Guantanamo look like a "nice hotel," in the words of one military prosecutor

eyebrow raising

Tina September 21, 2009 - 2:34pm

09/21/2009

Human Rights Lawyer on Bagram Prison
'The Obama Administration Has Completely Failed'

Human rights lawyer Tina Foster talks to SPIEGEL about detainee abuses in the US military prison in Bagram, Afghanistan and her disappointment with the Obama administration.

Tina September 21, 2009 - 2:37pm


US sees hand of elite Iranian unit in Afghanistan

21 Sep 2009 18:32:58 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Adam Entous

WASHINGTON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - The United States believes Iran's Revolutionary Guards are providing training and weapons to Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan to help them fight Western forces, U.S. counterterrorism officials said on Monday.

The alleged role played by the Revolutionary Guard's shadowy, elite Qods force in helping the Taliban, and the extent to which the Iranian leadership may be involved, has been hotly debated within the Pentagon and the U.S. intelligence community.

In a confidential assessment of the war, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, Army General Stanley McChrystal, said Iranian military assistance was not an immediate threat to Western forces but could become one in the future.

A counterterrorism official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the degree of Qods assistance -- supplying arms and providing training to Taliban elements -- had reached "very troubling" proportions, underscoring heightened concerns within the intelligence community.

The CIA and other agencies have been stepping up their presence in Afghanistan, deploying more officers to accommodate a surge in demand for intelligence on the Taliban and other threats, a U.S. intelligence official said.

Two years ago, the Bush administration dubbed the Revolutionary Guard a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction and imposed sanctions on its Qods force.

It accused the group of arming and training militants in Iraq who, in turn, attacked U.S. forces.

Pentagon officials pointed to the seizure late last month in western Afghanistan, near the border with Iran, of weapons and explosives bearing markings indicating they were made in Iran.

The large weapons cache, the first seized in Afghanistan in nearly two years, included rockets, explosives, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), as well as munitions known as explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, capable of piercing U.S. armor, Pentagon officials said.

U.S. officials said they believed the Iranian government was aware of the assistance but it was not clear to what extent its leaders were directly involved.

US SAYS IRAN PLAYING BOTH SIDES

Mainly Shi'ite Iran has historically played a complicated role in Afghanistan.

Tehran was a foe of the Taliban when the hardline Sunni movement ruled Afghanistan.

Since the group's ouster in a U.S.-backed invasion in 2001, Tehran has provided developmental assistance and political support to the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

U.S. officials said Iran appeared to be trying to play both sides, currying Taliban favor in case they return to power while trying to undercut the American military and enhance its bargaining power in talks over its nuclear program.

Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to protect the ruling system against internal and external threats, the Revolutionary Guard has about 125,000 members and is the most important wing of Iran's military.

Qods, which means Jerusalem, is the guard's special operations unit, handling activities abroad.

In his assessment of the war, a copy of which was obtained by the Washington Post and posted online, McChrystal said the Qods force was "reportedly" training fighters for certain Taliban groups and providing other forms of military assistance to insurgents.

"Iran's current policies and actions do not pose a short-term threat to the mission, but Iran has the capability to threaten the mission in the future," McChrystal wrote.

Pentagon officials said the presence of Iranian-made improvised explosive devices in the recently discovered cache in Afghanistan was particularly troubling because those weapons cause the highest number of Western casualties. (Reporting by Adam Entous; Editing by Simon Denyer and Cynthia Osterman)

Tina September 21, 2009 - 2:43pm

Who's the enemy in Afghanistan?

The peasant resistance?

Taliban religious zealots?

Tribal remnants of the Mujahedeen drug lords?

Al Qaeda "foreigners" who use the country to plot outrages against the west?

If it's all of the above, then what's the basic plan? I presume very different tactics are required to defeat such an assembly of disparate enemies and secure the untroubled occupation of Afghanistan. Excuse me, let me rephrase that last. Of course I meant to say "a stable and prosperous Afghanistan."

Newscasts leave me confused on this. There'll be a report regarding the successful obliteration of a a village "Taliban stronghold" or the sudden dispatch of an Al Qaeda principal, or the deadly consequence of a suicide bomber in a local town market. At the same time there are reports about road building successes and scenes of happy girls going to their new school.

There are also reports that we're "losing" or in danger of doing so.

If that's the case, who are we losing to in Afghanistan?

Puzzled but inquiring minds want to know.

Chickadee September 21, 2009 - 3:01pm

Al Qaeda seeking nuclear secrets from Pakistan: Holbrooke
September 16, 2009 14:16 IST

Al Qaeda [ Images ] is trying to seek nuclear secrets from Pakistan and it remains as dangerous as ever, Special United States Representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke [ Images ] said on Wednesday.

"Al Qaeda is still there in the region, ever dangerous and publicly asking people to attack the US and publicly asking nuclear engineers to give them nuclear secrets from Pakistan," Holbrooke said during a reception hosted by the Congressional Caucus on Afghanistan at the Capitol Hill.

Holbrooke -- the point man of the Barack Obama [ Images ] Administration for Afghanistan and Pakistan -- said the US is not in Afghanistan to support the elections, but it is there for its own national interest and security.

"We are not in Afghanistan for the election. We are in Afghanistan for the whole host of reasons, starting with our own national interests and going on to the fact that what happens in Afghanistan, would affect the region and what happens in the region affects the world," Holbrooke said.

He said the Obama administration has not only increased the number of security forces in the country but has also substantially increased aid to both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Tina September 21, 2009 - 3:04pm

"People should know what is going on there" says former soldier Travis Schouten who is still fighting to protect Afghan boys.

..... Travis Schouten lives with the image of the rape of an Afghan boy at a Canadian base every day of his life.

Witnessing two men, one armed with a knife, sodomize the child during an incident in late 2006 helped drive the 26-year-old to the brink of mental collapse.

But the former corporal says the assault is just the tip of an iceberg and underneath lies the systemic sexual abuse of boys at the hands of Afghanistan's police and army. It's a practice, he says, the Canadian Forces has turned a blind eye to.

"It's disgusting," said Schouten, now retired after eight years in the military. "We're telling people that we're trying to build a nation there and we let this happen?"

"We allow rampant abuse of young boys at the hands of what is supposed to be their finest police officers and army officers, then what does that say?"

Schouten's allegations that Afghans were sexually abusing children at a Canadian base near Kandahar made headlines in 2008, but his claims were dismissed earlier this year by military investigators as unfounded.

He is, however, not alone in voicing his concerns.
More


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena September 21, 2009 - 4:34pm

It's called Bacha-bazi. When the Taliban was in power, offenders if caught could have their heads used as footballs, but now that democracy has beset Afghanistan, the practice is reportedly in full swing again. (Perhaps someday when the dust has cleared, someone will ask exactly how it came to be that Omar Khadr resided in that mountain hideout. a child with all those strangers.)

Here's an article dated November, 2007.

A ‘bacha bereesh’ is a boy without a beard, and in several circles a beardless boy is most desired by rich, powerful male patrons. Grown men become involved in ‘bacha bazi’— which literally translates into ‘boy-play’. This is a time-honored tradition, condemned by human rights activists and Muslim clerics, but it is seeing a revival in the north province of Afghanistan. It is by no means restricted to the north of Afghanistan only, but has virtually faded in the south, where the Taliban’s strict moral code act as a deterrent.

The bacha bereesh, between the ages of 14 to 18 (though 14 seems to be the preferred age), are dressed in special women’s clothing, with bells tied to their feet, and paraded out to dance at parties and weddings. In general, the practice of men dancing at parties is relatively common in Afghanistan, where the sexes are strictly segregated and women unallowed to partake in such activity. However, in Baghlan, the former warlords and mujahideen commanders are resurrecting bacha bazi, and holding dance competitions between the boys.
Allah Daad, once a mujahedin commander in the northern Afghan province of Kunduz, explains how the boys are enticed into the arrangement: “First we select boys in the village and later on we try to trick them into coming with us,” he said. “Some of them stay with us for money; they get a monthly allowance, and in return we can have them any time we want. They don’t stay with us all the time - they can do their own jobs and then just come to parties with us.”
Large halls provide the venues for the weekly parties where the boys’ owners, invite their friends to watch them dancing. Several different types of dances are popular, Daad says, and if the boy refuses to dance or performs badly, his master beats him with a long stick.
"We have to do that,” explains Daad. “We spend money on these boys, so they have to dance.”
Later into the night, once the dancing is over, the boys are frequently shared with close friends, for sexual favors. And by the end of the evening it is not at all uncommon for the boy to have a new owner, as the parties often provide the opportunity for buying and selling.
Both prestige as well as poverty are the main motivators for the revival of bacha bazi.

Nor is that necessarily the worst fate for Afghan children.

Radhika Coomaraswamy, United Nations Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict held a Press Conference in July 2009 in which she stated, in part...

The second grave violation against children in armed conflict of course is the recruitment and use of children in the fighting forces. We have credible information that in the last few months there has been an increase in the number of children in combat. We also have verified reports of individual cases of suicide bombers. This is a terrible situation and we hope that action will be taken by everyone to help eradicate this.

We want to reiterate that the Taliban itself recognize this and in Rule 19 have stated that mujahideen are not allowed to take young boys with no facial hair on to the battlefield or into their private quarters.

So we urge all parties, especially the anti-Government elements, to begin to take action to prevent children from being used on the battlefield.

We also have reports that there are children associated with the Afghan police force in different parts of the country. We have had discussions with the Ministry of Interior and the National Directorate of Security to help eradicate this practice.

We are also concerned about children detained after military operations. ISAF have given us exact figures, but we do not have exact numbers on minors being detained by the Afghan authorities or the American forces. No one seems clear about the guidelines or the standard operating procedures in this regard. We hope that this report will be an opportunity to set these procedures in place.

As we know from other areas in the world, keeping young people in detention often makes them into hardened individuals and only feeds the cycle of violence.

We are also concerned about attacks on schools. These attacks kill children who are completely innocent. And such practice violates all norms of civilized behaviour contained in international law and in the teachings of the great religions. There have been a total of 228 schools that have been attacked with 75 deaths and 111 injured. And that was for 2007. In 2008 there have been 83 schools attacked so far.

We have also been receiving allegations about sexual violence against boys. Afghan civil society is particularly concerned about what has been called the Bacha-bazi system or practice for young boys associated with military commanders. This practice has to be eradicated as it is against international humanitarian law.

While informative she skated lightly over the details and omitted many documented reports of child kidnapping in Afghanistan, the murder of children for the international black market in body parts, and the trade in abducted boys and girls as slaves.

Another UN document cites the conclusion of a 2005 Afghanistan national human development report that recognised children made up the most vulnerable sector of Afghan society. The report noted that 20 percent of Afghan children die before the age of five and that more
than 300,000 children may have perished during the conflict. (Note that number was current 5 years ago.)

Chickadee September 21, 2009 - 7:29pm

that's what sexual repression and gender inequality does - it creates a violent world.

Travis Schouten's problem is that he is an exceptionally caring human being.


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena September 21, 2009 - 8:07pm

I realize that, Adrena. However my point is that his concern is barely reveals the tip of the iceberg.

Violence has many, many causes, among them oppression and inequality.

Chickadee September 21, 2009 - 10:25pm

...also engaged in this charming little practice, founding myths [which may, in this case, have some truth to them] aside. As to the statistics, the 300,000 figure refers to the number of children believed to have perished during the Soviet invasion and subsequent Afghan civil war (also worth noting that the most recent version of the report [2007] notes that infant mortality has dropped by 18% since the first report).

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 21, 2009 - 9:44pm

available online here is a devastating review.

It includes many references to the desperate circumstances of the children of Afghanistan.

! 60,000 children in Afghanistan are addicted to drugs.
! 100,000 children are disabled and otherwise severely affected physi-
cally due to the prolonged conflicts in the country.
! There are an estimated 8,000 former child soldiers in Afghanistan.
Many of them have left militia groups voluntarily, but they still need
assistance to reintegrate back into civilian life.
! Nearly 56% of landmine casualties (472) were under 21 years, with the largest group of children between seven and fourteen years.
! There are an estimated 1 million child laborers between seven and
fourteen years of age. Of these, about 60,000 are reported to work in the streets.
! More than 37,000 children work and beg in the streets of Kabul alone,some 80% of them being boys, 36% of whom are aged 8-10 years.
! Among children under age five, 6.5% suffer from acute malnutrition
and 54% are chronically malnourished.

Chickadee September 21, 2009 - 10:28pm

...completely? Magic eight ball says, "Outlook not so good".

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 21, 2009 - 11:02pm

the situation would be terribly grim, a lost country awash in poverty and crime and subject to continual exploitation.

But western military presence has not and can not possibly bring internal stability in these circumstances. 250,000 more soldiers, when all the kings horses and all the kings men can't put Afghanistan together again.

If it is truly in the West's geopolitical interests to occupy/stabilize/modernize Afghanistan, then we should tear a leaf from the Chinese' book.

What Afghanistan needs is not 250,000 more American soldiers, but 3 or 4 million more ordinary Americans - mums and dads with kids and family pets together with their TV sets and frigidaires and Hershey bars etc. and their entourage of teachers, lawyers and doctors, etc. There'll be change, massive change, in jig time. Oh yes.

Han Chinese are paid an annual stipend by their government to relocate to troubled areas and permanently settle there. The influx of new people doesn't usually go down well with some of the locals (see Uighurs) but then again, the feelings of the locals never really mattered anyway. Also, it works.

And for two centuries it's worked in North America, too.

Chickadee September 22, 2009 - 12:21pm

My suggestion could just possibly solve the economic crisis at home and the military crisis in Afghanistan in one swell foop.

Yet still nobody ever listens to me. {hiccup}

Chickadee September 22, 2009 - 12:46pm

...how completely we have ignored/fucked up development to this point. It's bad enough that the current nearly 8 years and counting of stunning lack of success facilitating development really aren't at all a good predictor of what is and isn't possible with current, or even decreased resources. The lack of coherent focus, the totally unintegrated nature of all facets of the involvement - it's all really pretty, well, for lack of a new better word "stunning".

I agree the big thing that needs to happen is to flood the zone with civilian development and to be willing to lose some of it to enemy action - but that just ain't gonna happen, given the western navel gazing nature; that means that we have far less development to work with, backed by guys with guns. If we don't have the guns, we won't have any development to speak of in the areas most critical to the conflict. Art of the possible, I'm afraid.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 22, 2009 - 1:43pm

Afghanistan: Putting The Squeeze On The President

by Turkana, The left Coaster

Meteor Blades has noted that the Pentagon appears to be trying to force President Obama's hand, in Afghanistan; and Big Tent Democrat is exactly right that General Stanley McChrystal should be removed from his command, if he's threatening to resign if he doesn't get his way. But amidst all this disturbing news is this hint of of something better, as reported by the Associated Press:

The White House is considering expanding counterterror operations in Pakistan to refocus on eliminating al-Qaida instead of mounting a major military escalation in Afghanistan.

Two senior administration officials said Monday that the renewed fight against the terrorist organization could lead to more missile attacks on Pakistan terrorist havens by unmanned U.S. spy planes. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because no decisions have been made.

Top aides to President Barack Obama said he still has questions and wants more time to decide.

The officials said the administration would push ahead with the ground mission in Afghanistan for the near future, still leaving the door open for sending more U.S. troops. But Obama's top advisers, including Vice President Joe Biden, have indicated they are reluctant to send many more troops – if any at all – in the immediate future.

A couple weeks ago, the New York Times already reported that Biden is skeptical about sending more troops, while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and special representative Richard Holbrooke both support the idea. Former counter-terrorism chief Richard Clarke sides with Biden, and Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin would prefer trying to strengthen the Afghan military.

Now, at face value, the idea of using more drones is not necessarily a good one. They don't work, and they do sometimes kill civilians. But anything that slows the push for more troops is helpful.



there is more, the 'my bold' ticks me off, otherwise there are some good links and I find the threat of resigning intriguing.

Tina September 22, 2009 - 2:24pm

...one is prone to when trying too hard to think like how they envision political operators thinking. Stepping back for a second, for this to really be an actual policy alternative, first there has to be room for expansion in what they're doing against al-Qa`eda in Pakistan. Not sure that I see the room for that - looks to me like it's been pretty much a full court press against al-Qa`eda and the cross border basing for the Afghan Taliban. There's room for expansion against the Pakistani Taliban, but I would want to be extremely careful with that. Me, I think the crucial resource limits (primarily int) have been reached and that there's not a lot of room for expansion, not if the US is going to continue to be in the driver's seat on it.

Less directly pertaining to the issue, my dominant reaction is that the notion that folks would consider "deals with their devil" like this because it's "helpful" to their political position is pretty stomach churning. I'm sure the civilians are honoured to be considered in their amateur political calculus. There are lots of times when one has to trade off between smaller and larger degrees of civilian death and destruction, but the factors expressed there - sure doesn't sound to me like that trade off was the primary driver to the calculation.

Edited to add: Sorry, missed the italics; mentally saw it as a sig, that I then didn't read. Kinda like those studies saying no one "sees" advertising on the Internet. I don't know how much credence to give to the notion that McChrystal would threaten resignation. I've seen this "fire the bum" "the generals are pushing around the elected officials" etc. etc. dynamic way too much out of the commentariat to assign it much import. At the end of the day resignation is every serving regular officer's right - period. It's a safety valve one sure doesn't want to remove - Lang had it right when he commented to the effect that the "I'll fall on my sword over this" notion has largely disappeared. The strength of the service is diminished by that. It's certainly possible to abuse it, but I'd have to have a lot higher standard of proof than I've seen thus far to believe it's happening here.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 22, 2009 - 10:04pm

Being well acquainted with two families from Afghanistan, I do recognize the issues, at least in the general overview, and from the very beginning - before the beginning. I also absolutely disagree with the use of the military as physical infrastructure builders (much less arbitrators of human rights.)

Militaries in areas of armed conflict are mandated to destroy things. They are not there to build things except for their own purposes. Nevertheless, given the possibility that a glimmer of sincere interest in improving Afghan society underscores western military efforts there, it can't be boiled down to exercising skills at physical engineering - building roads, hospitals and schools. They only present new targets for those who resist. Social engineering is not about bricks and mortar. Nor is it about handing out candy to happy children as a way to introduce them to friendly foreign soldiers, to spark their youthful interest in "democracy, or help ward off their starvation and drug addiction. But your average soldier, I warrant, is not schooled in psychology, linquistics, ethics, religion, Arab history, local family histories, and communications necessary to actively engage the people of this destitute country so that they could ever work together to reframe some notion of the common good, daring to leave tribal, religious and familial affiliations behind.

Such a change in mission would be deeply complicated and require a degree of altruism that I doubt is really at the base of Western interests in the country.

Humanitarian endeavours by ignorant foreign military in active war zones (not peace keepers) are bound to fail because permanent residents can never trust the players. The present overlap of military and humanitarian projects is frequently cited by aid organizations and the United Nations as causing severe problems in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the world.

Regarding my "recommendation", of course Americans would never be persuaded to immigrate to Afghanistan and I was being entirely facetious in suggesting it. However, tribalism, destitution and illiteracy were aspects of 18th century native America too. Nevertheless its unlikely that an 18th century solution could ever be put into effect (nor, for that matter, would I support it if it could. All those smallpox soaked trading blankets leave a long guilt trail).

I predict that what is eventually most probable with the increasingly unpopular "war" in Afghanistan is that slowly but surely the country will fade from the news stream (see Iraq). Foreign military will likewise quietly be eliminated, except for a few US outposts not unlike the several hundred others they maintain around the world. And within a year or two the terrible humanitarian disaster that is, and was, Afghanistan will slide down the collective memory hole like Biafra, like Darfur, like Wounded Knee.

Chickadee September 22, 2009 - 3:26pm


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena September 22, 2009 - 4:36pm

..."ignorant soldiers" [unless they're peacekeepers] / "heroic aid workers" dichotomy that you've built here. It simply isn't that one set of folks is stupid bad guys while the other is somehow smart good guys. All of them are to pretty much equal degrees bumbling around in the dark - the major difference is that one group of them is doing so while looking like something that you don't like. The other group, to a much larger degree than we'd like in the areas where we need it most, isn't doing it at all because their security can't be guaranteed - in large part because the group you don't like has been playing catch up for the past several years. Me, I take your scenario and I play it out to its logical conclusion and where I end up is a place where all that has to happen is the bad guys have to be willing to kill aid workers and we'll fold and let them do whatever they want to their populace. I don't believe that to be an acceptable option.

As to your entirely facetious suggestion, more's the pity that no one has the balls for it. Much more comfortable to sit back home and paint good guy / bad guy pictures and never have to test them against reality, I guess.

Me, I don't predict that Afghanistan will benignly fade away, though the news stream will move on - I predict that the intervention will achieve far less than in could because the populace has no stomach for even modest sacrifice and that they will walk, even sprint away while telling themselves comforting lies about how there was nothing they could have done. Meanwhile the scale of carnage will increase a hundredfold, but many of the most vocal will have moved on to the newest "state of play" and some will even secretly despise the victims. Meanwhile they'll preen and talk to each other about how enlightened their politics are while old soldiers and those that listen to them try not to retch. The walking I understand - the lies, even to themselves, I won't accept.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 22, 2009 - 9:35pm

... all of us, including you, sit comfortably back home painting different scenarios.


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena September 22, 2009 - 10:45pm

...scenarios. I object to folks reaching only for comforting "Gordian Knot" type solutions while painting those scenarios and ignoring their likely impact. Faced with the bewildering and discomforting situation we see in Afghanistan even in the face of unbelievable need, rather than folks asking themselves what they can spare and what can be achieved, many folks are simply saying "nothing - nothing can be spared and nothing can be achieved, I just want my people home". Sorry, but I don't think that cuts it and I particularly don't think that anybody should get to look away and walk without looking back. I got all the time in the world for those who try to strike a sane balance between the polar insanities of bearing "any burden, any price" and complete withdrawal as soon as possible, but the folks that run to the comforting extreme that blades the other guy, yeah I think they should have the costs pointed out to them periodically.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 23, 2009 - 4:18am

and I appreciate your position but with all due respect, I resent your habit of summarily brushing away with one gigantic derogatory stroke, any opposing view expressed by "us folks" as you like to refer to people who don't agree with you.

There are costs for both sides that need to be pointed out periodically. The Canadian army suffers from battle fatigue for various reasons - lack of progress leads to a lack of purpose that many soldiers feel. They are entitled to their feelings and beliefs, no? Likewise, you cannot dismiss the legitimate views of the majority of Canadians who similarly see this war as an exercise in futility.

Also, as you must be aware, some of the conditions have become worse since the start of the war. For example, this week, The Globe and Mail offers a six part multi media series with interactive videos, and discussion groups that explain how and why the conditions of Afghan women have actually deteriorated as a result of this war.

I'm afraid that, on the war in Afghanistan, I continue to agree with the views that Chickadee has expressed extremely well.

At the same time, I appreciate your opinions and will continue to enjoy your insightful comments, not only on Afghanistan, but on a variety of topics.


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena September 23, 2009 - 6:39pm

...I wouldn't presume to tell you what to believe. Most of my vitriol is aimed at those specific folks who are spending an awful lot of effort pushing two extremes without looking at the middle, helping ensure that what is possible is diminished. What I object to with regards to individual views is that people are not taking into account the costs and they are also not, in my view, taking into account the actual reality that we're faced with - they're minimizing the potential and maximizing the cost, and they've got it too far backwards, MPFAO. The mood of the day is triumphing over clear thought and notions of what just might be the right thing to do - as an example, there are people who are complaining that it might cost $10 billion a year or more to keep the Afghan security apparatus afloat - as if we haven't already been spending hundreds of billions on endeavours that are good deal sketchier. That's a bill we shouldn't even blink at, given some of the foolishness we've funded.

I get the costs to our side - for personal reasons I'm very in tune with the costs of this to the CF. Everything that I've seen indicates to me that the feelings and beliefs of that group is overwhelmingly that they don't want to pull out precipitously and that they believe in the mission. If anything, the members that I know are more biased towards being unhappy about the writing the see on the wall, post-2011.

I don't dismiss the the views of Canadians on this, but I also don't think that their views are in the main very well informed, and I just can't respect the degree to which the population has fallen down on their duty in this regard. We've been in this eight years and the percentage of the population that knows a Hazara from a Honda is vanishingly small. Judgmental bastard that I am, I think that's damned near a crime. This is one of the five or six most important policy decisions that Canadians currently alive will live through - and more particularly it's one that far more than anything else is predicated simply on their will to continue political support, to the extent that they and the elite political opinion founded upon them are the enemy centre of gravity - and yet I see no mass movement to seek knowledge. The issue doesn't demand great sacrifice on their personal part - for the vast majority it's restricted to a willingness to figure out what's going on so they can provide informed political oversight, yet folks have not in the main done that, though there is no shortage of opinions they hold. I find that mind boggling.

This simply isn't something where costs should be pointed out periodically - all of those costs should constantly be front and centre in our calculus.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 23, 2009 - 11:39pm

We'll have to agree to disagree then.

Eric Margolis, a respected expert on foreign affairs, spots another Vietnam on the horizon.

America’s attempts to build an Afghan sepoy army of 250,000 have failed miserably. The 80,000 men raised to date are 95% illiterate and only on the job for money to feed their families. They have no loyalty to the corrupt Western-installed government in Kabul. CIA’s 74,000 “contractors” (read mercenaries) in Afghanistan are more reliable. The Afghan police are little better than uniformed bandits.

But the biggest problem in Afghanistan, as always, is tribalism. Many of the US-raised Afghan army troops are minority Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazara who used to collaborate with the Soviets. They are scorned by the majority Pashtun tribes as enemies and traitors. These US-paid troops also know they will face death when the US and its western allies eventually quit Afghanistan. More

Then there's Andrew Wilder, a former manager of humanitarian aid and development programs in Afghanistan, with an insider's perspective.

He states that

the more money we try to spend in this environment, which has very limited human resources and institutional capacity, inevitably money overflows into the pockets of corrupt officials. Our aid programs are actually fueling the corruption, which is de-legitimizing the government, which is fueling instability.

He raises a few additional good points. However, as you can imagine, I disagree with his suggestion that, despite the many obstacles, we should not walk away from Afghanistan. In fact, after having read this article, I find that Chickadee's arguments make even more sense.

Finally, this

It’s estimated about 20 per cent of soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan suffer from the illness characterized by flashbacks, anxiety and depression (PTSD). In January, the U.S. army disclosed they lost more soldiers that month to suicide than enemy fire. Britain this year launched an unprecedented suicide watch that encouraged soldiers to get help. Source


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena September 24, 2009 - 11:31pm

(but neither has anyone else on the site)...
Yes, you're excused, we all are.


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole September 23, 2009 - 12:32am

...and say what burdens it is that they are willing to bear rather than forcing folks to read minds, 'cause right now all of the oxygen's being sucked out of the debate by folks who are shouting about what they're against. By default the rhetoric seems to be all in or all out - either we throw some unbounded "more" at the issue or we simply go home (frequently with some remote kinetics to "look after" our interests). Me, I think we want to deserve to be excused from those early morning eyes in the mirror (or the looking into the computer screen at 4:08 a.m. equivalent) we need to ask some real hard questions about what it is that we can spare and should do in between the extremes, some questions that put some other group of folks in the forefront.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 23, 2009 - 4:08am

I only rephrased what Dave had said ... "Much more comfortable to sit back home and paint good guy / bad guy pictures" I don't consider a response to thoughts expressed in a post "mind reading". Am I missing something?


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena September 23, 2009 - 5:30pm

...assertion as to what lies in folks' hearts must be based on mind reading. There's some truth to that notion, but frankly based on what folks are saying, in my view it ain't much of a stretch. If there are other factors that they are weighing, let them give them as much of an airing as the more self-interested ones.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 23, 2009 - 5:56pm

and his elaborate reconstruction of your rephrase

but he took it very well....:-)


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole September 23, 2009 - 10:33pm

I'm very surprised to hear that. Whatever else they may be, the Taliban are religious zealots and this practice is strictly prohibited in religious texts. The UN actually references the Taliban edict in that regard.

Chickadee September 21, 2009 - 10:41pm

...going to be eradicated, even by the Taliban? Yeah, sorry, I'm not so credulous. They're not two dimensional cardboard cutouts serving to reinforce preconception, though frequently treated as such.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 21, 2009 - 10:58pm

The newspaper of record's version of Tina's post

NYT - (Washington DC) — President Obama is exploring alternatives to a major troop increase in Afghanistan, including a plan advocated by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to scale back American forces and focus more on rooting out Al Qaeda there and in Pakistan, officials said Tuesday

.
I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole September 23, 2009 - 12:28am

Why are they surprised by the Pakistani militants? After they fled Swat they said they were going west and going north to disrupt the northern supply routes. Maybe they should start listening to those press releases...;)

September 24, 2009
Taliban Widen Afghan Attacks From Base in Pakistan
By ERIC SCHMITT and MARK MAZZETTI

WASHINGTON — Senior Taliban leaders, showing a surprising level of sophistication and organization, are using their sanctuary in Pakistan to stoke a widening campaign of violence in northern and western Afghanistan, senior American military and intelligence officials say.

The Taliban’s expansion into parts of Afghanistan that it once had little influence over comes as the Obama administration is struggling to settle on a new military strategy for Afghanistan, and as the White House renews its efforts to get Pakistan’s government to be more aggressive about killing or capturing Taliban leaders inside Pakistan.

American military and intelligence officials, who insisted on anonymity because they were discussing classified information, said the Taliban’s leadership council, led by Mullah Muhammad Omar and operating around the southern Pakistani city of Quetta, was directly responsible for a wave of violence in once relatively placid parts of northern and western Afghanistan. A recent string of attacks killed troops from Italy and Germany, pivotal American allies that are facing strong opposition to the Afghan war at home.

These assessments echo a recent report by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top military commander in Afghanistan, in portraying the Taliban as an increasingly sophisticated shadow government that sees itself on the cusp of victory in the war-ravaged nation.

General McChrystal’s report describes how Mullah Omar’s insurgency has appointed shadow governors in most provinces of Afghanistan, levies taxes, establishes Islamic courts there and conducts a formal review of its military campaign each winter.

American officials say they believe that the Taliban leadership in Pakistan still gets support from parts of the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s military spy service. The ISI has been the Taliban’s off-again-on-again benefactor for more than a decade, and some of its senior officials see Mullah Omar as a valuable asset should the United States leave Afghanistan and the Taliban regain power.

The issue of the Taliban leadership council, or shura, in Quetta is now at the top of the Obama administration’s agenda in its meetings with Pakistani officials.

At the same time, American officials face a frustrating paradox: the more the administration wrestles publicly with how substantial and lasting a military commitment to make to Afghanistan, the more the ISI is likely to strengthen bonds to the Taliban as Pakistan hedges its bets.

American officials have long complained that senior Taliban leaders operating from Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan Province, provide money, military supplies and strategic planning guidance to the Taliban in the south of Afghanistan, where most of the nearly 68,000 American forces are deployed.

But since NATO’s offensive into the Taliban-dominated south this spring, the insurgents have surprised American commanders by stepping up attacks against allied troops elsewhere in the country to throw NATO off balance and create the perception of spreading violence that neither the allied military nor the civilian Afghan government in Kabul can control.

more

Tina September 24, 2009 - 4:07am

Spencer Ackerman | Washington D.C. | September 23

The Washington Independent - As President Obama reconsiders some of the assumptions of the counterinsurgency strategy he announced in March for Afghanistan and Pakistan, a conference featuring many of the luminaries of the counterinsurgency community discussed both the challenges inherent in counterinsurgency, including some lessons yet to be applied in Afghanistan.

U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of all U.S. forces in the Middle East and South Asia, told conference attendees that he would not discuss “pre-decisional” aspects of the Afghanistan strategy and resource debate, but did provide something of a defense of Obama’s review. “We said we expected some form of assessment that we thought would take place in the fall,” said Petraeus, the U.S. military’s foremost theorist-practitioner of counterinsurgency. While the Afghan election remains unfinished, the election “looks like it may not produce a government with greater legitimacy in the eyes of the people,” an event that might prompt a reconsideration of strategic assumptions. Petraeus said he expected Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, to provide his request for additional resources to the administration in “a few days” and anticipated “several multi-hour meetings” over the “next two weeks” where senior leadership will consider the fundamental questions of the war.

Instead of the Afghanistan debate, Petraeus emphasized several core counterinsurgency principles: the need to provide security for civilians beleaguered by both insurgencies and poor governance; getting what he termed a “whole-of-governments” approach to counterinsurgency, incorporating civilian, military and foreign partners for a united effort; and pushing the “big concept” within the Army that warfare can rapidly transition from offensive operations to stability operations. “I think we have developed leaders as well who are capable of full-spectrum operations,” Petraeus said.

Similarly, the conference, sponsored by the Marine Corps University, largely avoided direct discussion of the ongoing strategy debates within the Obama administration and this week’s leak of the review conducted for McChrystal of the overall situation in Afghanistan. But several speakers made points that spoke to the heart of the debate over whether a more restricted mission in Afghanistan would more adequately address U.S. interests against al-Qaeda or lead to a further deterioration of the war’s fortunes.

more

[Comment: Conference video via C-SPAN of Gen Petraeus' remarks can be found: here. I'm given to understand that more will be forthcoming as the segments are broadcast - I particularly look forward to McMaster's piece. Agenda here at the Marine Corps University site. Personal aside: Gosh, I'm sure looking forward to the secondary coverage of this event - I'm sure that the discussion will fully contextualize the frameworks of the commentary rather than cherry pick quotes that serve various agendas. Not. ~ JPD]

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 24, 2009 - 10:55am

Tom Andrews

former Member of Congress, Maine
Posted: September 24, 2009 11:22 AM

Classified McChrystal Report: 500,000 Troops Will Be Required Over Five Years in Afghanistan

Congress Should Hold Hearings on Alternatives to Major Escalation

Embedded in General Stanley McChrystal's classified assessment of the war in Afghanistan is his conclusion that a successful counterinsurgency strategy will require 500,000 troops over five years.

This bombshell was dropped by NBC reporter Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC's Morning Joe on Wednesday:

"The numbers are really pretty horrifying. What they say, embedded in this report by McChrystal, is they would need 500,000 troops - boots on the ground - and five years to do the job. No one expects that the Afghan Army could step up to that. Are we gonna put even half that of U.S. troops there, and NATO forces? No way." [Morning Joe, September 23, 2009]

Mitchell got the figure from an independent source. It was not revealed in the redacted version of the once classified report released by the Pentagon earlier this week. McChrystal has warned the administration that without an infusion of more troops the eight-year war in Afghanistan "will likely result in failure".

There are perhaps only two people in America who think that this level of commitment is sustainable by the United States and its allies and they left office last January.

Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-andrews/classified-mcchrystal-rep_b_298528.html?view=print

Tina September 24, 2009 - 11:41am

A general, acting without rule or plan, although at the head of an army superior in number to that of the enemy, finds himself almost always inferior on the field of battle." Napoleon I "Maxims of War" 1831.

Chickadee September 28, 2009 - 12:28am

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