Iranian Unrest II

June 24

Has the U.S. Played a Role in Fomenting Unrest During Iran’s Election?

Foreign Policy Journal/Jeremy Hammond - Following the announcement of victory for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over his main opponent Mir Hossein Mousavi in Iran’s presidential election on June 12, the country erupted in turmoil as supporters of Mousavi flocked to the streets to protest what they claimed was a fraudulent election, while state security and militia forces cracked down on dissenters, sometimes violently. Iran claimed that the unrest was being fueled by foreign interference, a charge reported but generally dismissed in Western media accounts. But there is ample reason to believe that the U.S. likely had a hand in fomenting the chaos that has since plagued the country many commentators have compared to the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah.

** Iran's supreme leader declares: The vote stands
** President Obama stops short of calling off his diplomatic overture to Tehran and refuses to threaten consequences.
** Mohsen Rezai, has withdrawn his protest about election irregularities
** Arab states gloat at Iran strife but are wary of result
** Iran bans election protest footballers
** Ayatollah Khameini grants Guardian Council 5 more days to study elections
** Obama is right to not saber-rattle on Iran
** Live-Blogging The Uprising

Please consider this an Iranian open thread, please check comments for updates. Related posts: Iranian Unrest I and others here.


Tina June 24, 2009 - 4:09am
( categories: News | Iran )

24 Jun 2009 09:23:26 GMT
Source: Reuters
* Minister says arrested person "disguised as journalist"

* Was collecting information for Iran's "enemies"

(Adds quotes, detail, background)

TEHRAN, June 24 (Reuters) - Iran's intelligence minister said some people with British passports were involved in post-election violence in the Islamic Republic, the semi-official Fars News Agency reported on Wednesday.

The statement by Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei was the latest in a series of allegations by Tehran of a Western role in the most widespread street unrest that has rocked Iran since its 1979 Islamic revolution.

He also said one of those arrested was "disguised as a journalist and he was collecting information needed by the enemies," Fars reported.

The same news agency said on Tuesday that a Greek journalist covering the election for Washington Times had been arrested.

Mohseni-Ejei said: "Whoever, under any name or title, collects information in Iran will be arrested and so far a foreign journalist has been arrested."

He said "another person" had also been arrested and interrogated and his equipment confiscated, without giving details.

Iran has accused the protesters of being backed by the West -- the United States and Britain in particular -- and have paraded arrested young demonstrators on state television confessing to being incited by foreign news broadcasts.

London and Washington have rejected the accusations.

more

Tina June 24, 2009 - 4:39am

this aligns with my thinking:

Western interference 'could benefit conservatives'

06/24/2009 12:00 AM | By Jumana Al Tamimi, Associate Editor

Dubai: The turmoil in Iran has created a controversial situation for the country and Western governments alike. The current course of developments is expected to define the future of bilateral relations, including the anticipated dialogue between Tehran and Washington, analysts say.

Watch video on Iran vigil in Dubai

While Tehran has accused the West, mainly Britain, of "meddling" in its internal affairs - a charge denied by London - many analysts in the region do not totally rule out the theory that the West is using Iran's riots and is taking advantage of advances in communication technology.

"Iran has not said the demonstrations were moved by the West," eminent Iranian analyst Ameer Mousavi said. "But it is saying that they [the West] are taking advantage of what is happening in Iran. The West is flowing with the tide of riots," he told Gulf News.

Persian-speaking media outlets based in the UK and US are playing a "very dangerous role," Tehran-based Mousavi said. "There is a fabrication to news & all these moves are negatively affecting any regime," he explained.

more

Tina June 24, 2009 - 4:43am

stratfor, h/t Jeremy Hammond @ Foreign Policy Journal
June 22, 2009 | 1840 GMT

Graphic for Geopolitical Intelligence Report

By George Friedman

Successful revolutions have three phases. First, a strategically located single or limited segment of society begins vocally to express resentment, asserting itself in the streets of a major city, usually the capital. This segment is joined by other segments in the city and by segments elsewhere as the demonstration spreads to other cities and becomes more assertive, disruptive and potentially violent. As resistance to the regime spreads, the regime deploys its military and security forces. These forces, drawn from resisting social segments and isolated from the rest of society, turn on the regime, and stop following the regime’s orders. This is what happened to the Shah of Iran in 1979; it is also what happened in Russia in 1917 or in Romania in 1989.

Revolutions fail when no one joins the initial segment, meaning the initial demonstrators are the ones who find themselves socially isolated. When the demonstrations do not spread to other cities, the demonstrations either peter out or the regime brings in the security and military forces — who remain loyal to the regime and frequently personally hostile to the demonstrators — and use force to suppress the rising to the extent necessary. This is what happened in Tiananmen Square in China: The students who rose up were not joined by others. Military forces who were not only loyal to the regime but hostile to the students were brought in, and the students were crushed.
A Question of Support

This is also what happened in Iran this week. The global media, obsessively focused on the initial demonstrators — who were supporters of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s opponents — failed to notice that while large, the demonstrations primarily consisted of the same type of people demonstrating. Amid the breathless reporting on the demonstrations, reporters failed to notice that the uprising was not spreading to other classes and to other areas. In constantly interviewing English-speaking demonstrators, they failed to note just how many of the demonstrators spoke English and had smartphones. The media thus did not recognize these as the signs of a failing revolution.

more

Tina June 24, 2009 - 6:02am

Obama Changes Tune on Iran

Slate - The New York Times, USA Today, and the Wall Street Journal's world-wide newsbox lead with, while the rest of the papers off-lead, President Obama delivering his harshest criticism of Iran's postelection crackdown of protesters. After days of criticism from Republican leaders who said the president wasn't showing enough support for the Iranian demonstrators, Obama said he was "appalled and outraged by the threats, beatings, and imprisonments of the past few days." Despite the tough words, Obama only took it so far. While stating that there are "significant questions about the legitimacy of the election," he emphasized the United States has no way of judging who really won. He also didn't mention any possible sanctions against the regime if it continued down its current path and, more importantly, refused to state that his administration was giving up on its goal to have talks with Iranian officials.

graham June 24, 2009 - 8:57am

Brent Scowcroft: US Has Spies On the Ground in Iran

By Jeremy Scahill

As violence continues on the streets of Tehran, RebelReports has learned that former US National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft has confirmed that the US government has spies on the ground in Iran. Scowcroft made the assertion in an interview to be broadcast on the Al Jazeera program "Fault Lines." When asked by journalist Josh Rushing if the US has "intelligence operatives on the ground in Iran," Scowcroft replied, "Of course we do." (See Video)

While it is hardly surprising that the US has its operatives in Iran, it is unusual to see a figure in a position to know state this on the record. New Yorker journalist Seymour Hersh and Former Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter both have claimed for years that the US has regularly engaged in covert operations inside of Iran aimed at destabilizing the government. In July 2008, Hersh reported, "the scale and the scope of the operations in Iran, which involve the Central Intelligence Agency and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), have now been significantly expanded."

more

'The desire to be free is primal' -adrena

Zuma June 24, 2009 - 8:18pm

the internet was full of audio of witnesses saying protesters were being butchered and now it is silent on the matter. Was it a hoax? I'll be honest when I heard the audio I thought it sounded to fantastic to post and the first article I saw quoted a witness telling Reuters there was no violence, and I have yet to see any followup. Has anyone else seen confirmation?

Tina June 25, 2009 - 5:37am

I've been looking but nada reliable...

you've seen this?

graham June 25, 2009 - 5:43am

I notice a comment on the side that dispels the idea that it was a ax attack. I keep hoping Fisk would come out with a new column. Word is Mousavi has been pressured to give up the fight.(bbc ticker)

Tina June 25, 2009 - 5:56am

Wednesday's street protest was smaller than on previous days as the increasingly heavy security presence and government decrees to stop the demonstrations took effect.

But there were reports of riot police firing tear gas, shooting in the air and beating with batons demonstrators who defied the ban in central Tehran.

Severe reporting restrictions imposed on foreign media in Iran mean the BBC cannot verify the reports.
bbc

graham June 25, 2009 - 7:57am

In line with foreign media attempts to disrupt post-election stability in Iran, CNN has broadcast a false report which contradicts footage obtained by Press TV.

CNN broadcast an interview with a so-called anonymous witness of Wednesday's protest in Tehran's Baharestan Square, with the aim of depicting Iranian security forces as villains.

Footage obtained by Press TV reporters display some 200 protesters 'illegally' gathering in front of Iran's parliament and at a nearby subway station on Wednesday, to protest the result of the June 12th election.

The CNN's report, however, contains a call from an alleged female witness in Tehran who supposedly describes the situation as the 'massacre' of protesters by the police in Baharestan Square.
link

graham June 25, 2009 - 8:04am

you wonder how many really supported Mousavi, I keep wondering if they just jumped in front of the news and rode the wave. There is no doubt he had a large supporting block but I wonder how big it really was. It is real obvious that Iran's leaders did not appreciate what electronic communications can accomplish.

Tina June 25, 2009 - 8:07am

and followers marching to different drums.

Theres no doubting the green brigade fervour, but theres also the cultural exaggeration that got amplified in more ways than one by the electronic dissemination.

graham June 25, 2009 - 8:20am

stories I have followed with updates this was the most unsettling. With so little verifiable information I felt like all articles were just rumors, propaganda or opinion. It was like flying blind ;)

Tina June 25, 2009 - 8:43am

WAPO - Standing in Tehran's grand Vali-e Asr Street amid a sea of green, the opposition's signature color, Mehrdad was sure Iran was on the verge of a change for the better.

He pulled out his cellphone and started filming the crowd around him: the girls in green head scarves, the ladies in traditional chador with green bands around their wrists, the middle-aged couple holding hands as they marched. All were supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the man Mehrdad was certain would be the next president of Iran.

That was two weeks ago. Now everything has changed.

"I deleted those movies," said Mehrdad, a tall 31-year-old who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on the condition that his last name not be used. "What if they find those on my cellphone? I could be arrested. Actually, I could be arrested even for wearing green."

Mehrdad is one among millions, part of a movement that has gone in a matter of days from the exultant hope of reforming Iran's government to the disappointment of facing down leaders who have labeled them terrorists and hooligans. For now, at least, the millions are largely silenced. Only small groups venture out to demonstrate, and when they do, they are suppressed violently.

But their anger remains. cont

graham June 25, 2009 - 6:57am

days in Iraq

BBC - For reasons best not explained, I've come to know a former member of the Revolutionary Guards really well.

He's done some pretty dreadful things in his life, from attacking women in the streets for not wearing the full Islamic gear to fighting alongside Islamic revolutionaries in countries abroad.
And yet now, in the tumult that has gripped Iran since its elections last week, he's had a change of heart.

He's become a backer of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the reformist candidate who alleges fraud in the elections. He's saved up the money to send his son to a private school abroad, and he loathes President Ahmadinejad.
He's not the only one.

I had to leave Iran last Sunday, when the authorities refused to renew my visa. But before I left, another former senior Revolutionary Guard came to our hotel to see us.
"Remember me," he pleaded. "Remember that I helped the BBC."

I realised that even a person so intimately linked to the Islamic Revolution thinks that something will soon change in Iran.

The 11 extraordinary days I spent there was my 20th visit in 30 years. I've been reviewing the material we recorded, taking a second look at what was really going on.

I think that these last weeks may turn out to be as momentous as the Islamic Revolution I witnessed there 30 years ago.
The Revolutionary Guards with second thoughts illustrate some of the deeper forces driving a crisis which I believe could change Iran forever.

The first big change is that nowadays in Iran, even when you meet an official you can't necessarily tell which side they're on.
It's as if the fabric of the Islamic Revolution itself has been torn; so much so that individual government ministers, civil servants, Republican Guards, senior military men, and all sorts of others, have taken sides, reflecting a power struggle at the very top. more

graham June 25, 2009 - 7:51am

Views: I voted for Ahmadinejad

The overwhelming majority of Iranians who have got in touch with the BBC News website about their country's disputed presidential elections voted for opposition candidates. Mustafa, who is 28 and describes himself as "middle class", emailed from Tehran to say he and all his family voted for the president.

Why did you vote for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?

On domestic policy, I voted for him because he supports people in Tehran. He does this by trying to improve life for people not in Tehran, so that they can find jobs in their own villages and cities and not move to the capital.

On foreign policy: Iran does not accept Israel and as a consequence there has been no positive sign from Europe or the US in the past 30 years. Mr Ahmadinejad talks straight and frankly to these countries with whom we are never going to have a relationship anyway.

I was hopeful at first with President Obama, but now I am disappointed.

Presidential problems are internal issues and no country should meddle in another's affairs. France, Germany, Britain and US have ignored this rule.

Seeing that we are unable to have good relations with Europe or the US, Mr Ahmadinejad has tried to create relationships with Asian and African countries instead. This is good for Iran.

Of course, there is a lot yet left to be done and we expect him to do more.

Why do you think so many people are protesting if there was electoral fraud?

I believe there has been no fraud at all and that other people trust him as much as I do. I work in central Tehran and have seen the protests.

I think several key players are creating trouble for their own purposes. [Former president Akbar Hashemi] Rafsanjani lost the presidential election to Mr Ahmadinejad four years ago and was publically accused of corruption by him during the campaign.

Because of this enmity between the two, I think Mr Rafsanjani calmly decided to show there was fraud. I think he stopped trouble-making after the supreme leader's speech last Friday [19 June] because he knew the world was watching him.

[Former president Muhammad] Khatami is another of the ones creating protests in Iran. I think the reformists chose Mir Hossein Mousavi as a front for their campaign because he had been out of politics for a while and would not remind people of the reformists' problems.

I think foreign countries are stirring trouble too. Why is a country like Italy opening its embassy's doors for protestors? Why are Germany and Britain giving visas to protestors so easily? Why are all these countries suddenly supporting Iranians at this time?

What do you think of the street demonstrations and the way police are handling the protestors?

Everybody has the right to protest, so long as it is peaceful and not harming or killing innocent people. It's not fair that Mousavi is sending innocent people to the front line, he should come out and lead, rather than send them to be killed or hurt by police - or themselves.

I don't like the police treatment of the demonstrators.

Are you happy with the way Iran is run?

Iran should give more freedom to its people and support them more. But we must remember that we are still under sanctions.

Tina June 25, 2009 - 7:56am

I see he takes no responsibility for telling his supporters to protest, odd that for all his restrictions he can freely post against the government. Is Khamenei letting him dig his own grave?

bbc

Iran protest leader Mir Hossein Mousavi says he holds those behind alleged "rigged" elections responsible for bloodshed during recent protests.

In a defiant statement on his website, he called for future protests to be in a way which would not "create tension."

He complained of "complete" restrictions on his access to people and a crackdown on his media group.

A BBC correspondent in Tehran says the statement is a direct challenge to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

"I won't refrain from securing the rights of the Iranian people... because of personal interests and the fear of threats," Mr Mousavi said on the website of his newspaper, Kalameh.

more

Tina June 25, 2009 - 9:06am

Posted on June 25, 2009 by Brad Jacobson under
Scholars and Rogues

It might be more difficult for Republicans to bash President Obama for being “timid” in his comments about the Iranian government’s violence against protesters if the U.S. media didn’t consistently censor US-Iranian history.

Take CNN’s recent Iran timeline, titled “A brief look at Iran’s history.”

According to the timeline, which begins in 1979, Iran has “been at odds with the West and some of its neighbors” since the overthrow of the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. It refers to the Shah as having been “pro-Western.” Yet in the mother of all omissions, CNN leaves out how the US government was directly involved in bringing the Shah to power in a 1953 coup that toppled the democratically elected Iranian government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh.

As a June 4 Agence France-Presse article details:
The CIA, with British backing, masterminded the coup after Mossadegh nationalised the oil industry, run until then in by the British-owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.

For many Iranians, the coup demonstrated duplicity by the United States, which presented itself as a defender of freedom but did not hesitate to use underhand methods to get rid of a democratically elected government to suit its own economic and strategic interests.

You might remember Obama owning up to this bit of history during his recent trip to the Middle East, in a speech to the Muslim world in Cairo: “In the middle of the Cold War, the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically elected Iranian government.” Reality and honesty as olive branch. Something that would be anathema to the Bush administration and most Republicans holding office today.

The Agence France-Presse article also notes that it was “the first time a serving US president has publicly admitted American involvement in the coup.”

more

Tina June 26, 2009 - 10:55am

Attention. Spans. of. ADHD. Pigeons.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave June 26, 2009 - 11:42am

Authoritarian Regimes Censor News From Iran

Wapo - Out of fear that history might repeat itself, the authoritarian governments of China, Cuba and Burma have been selectively censoring the news this month of Iranian crowds braving government militias on the streets of Tehran to demand democratic reforms.

graham June 27, 2009 - 5:36am

if you go to 'eng' (for english news), one might notice the variety in the short list, interestingly enough.
http://gooya.com/

...and there's also this chat app there:
http://gooya.com/ad/chat/textchat.html

among the other many links is:
http://www.iranian.com

carrying this interesting (to me anyway) rant:
http://www.iranian.com/main/2009/jun/seyyed-ali-shah

'The desire to be free is primal' -adrena

Zuma June 27, 2009 - 5:54am

Iraninian opposition quiet amid strategic bind - EDITOR'S NOTE: Iranian authorities have barred journalists for international news organizations from reporting on the streets and ordered them to stay in their offices. This report is based on the accounts of witnesses reached in Iran and official statements carried on Iranian media.
___
Iran's opposition supporters, faced with a senior cleric's demand that protest leaders be severely punished or even executed, enter the third week of their campaign against the disputed presidential election in increasingly tight straits.
Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who claims hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stole the election, says he will seek official permission for any future rallies, effectively ending his role in street protests.
The opposition may have little opportunity to keep momentum going within the limits of the law, and the international attention that appeared to bolster their morale could be waning. Also, , Mousavi's Web site, his primary means for communicating with supporters, remained down on Saturday; an aide told the Associated Press Friday that the site had been hacked.
In one of the harshest statements from authorities since protests broke out after the June 12 election, Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami, a ranking cleric, said "Anyone who takes up arms to fight with the people, they are worthy of execution."
Those who disturbed the peace and destroyed public property were "at war with God" and should be "dealt with without mercy," he said Friday in a nationally televised sermon.
His call for merciless retribution for those who stirred up Iran's largest wave of dissent since the 1979 Islamic Revolution came as Mousavi slipped further from view.
Mousavi said he would seek official permission for any future rallies, effectively ending his role in street protests organized by supporters who insist he won the election.
Mousavi alleges he was robbed of victory through widespread and systematic fraud. The regime rejects the claim, refusing to consider new balloting, and on Friday, the Guardian Council — Iran's top electoral body — proclaimed the vote the "healthiest" held since the revolution.
___________________________________________________________________
I'm currently trying to find some translations of poems being published in the daily paper in Tehran, apparently warning of the traitors within...graham

graham June 27, 2009 - 6:05am


Tuesday
Now, while thou hast the power of utterance,
Speak, O brother, with grace and kindness
Because tomorrow, when the messenger of death arrives,
Thou wilt of necessity restrain thy tongue.

(Sadi)


Wednesday
Beware of the smoke of internal wounds
Because at last an internal wound will break out.
Forbear to uproot one heart as long as thou canst
Because one sigh may uproot a world.

(Sadi)

Thursday
Hafez, thy praise alone my comrades sing;
Hasten to us, thou that art sorrowing!
A robe of honour and a harnessed steed
I send to thee.

(Hafez)

hattip to Lindsey Hilsum @ snowblog

graham June 27, 2009 - 6:13am
Zuma June 27, 2009 - 3:33pm

Alan Cowell & Michael Slackman | Paris | July 6

NYT - In sharpening exchanges with the West, Iran’s supreme leader warned Monday that outside criticism following its disputed June 12 election would backfire and that the Iranian people would become a “united fist” against what he termed meddling by foreign powers.

But, in a new broadside from a European leader, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France was quoted as saying Iranians deserve better leaders.

The remarks were the latest fallout from the vote, which returned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power in the face of opposition claims that the ballot was rigged. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets in protest, provoking a harsh crackdown that ended the demonstrations.

Iran then arrested nine local employees of the British Embassy, accusing them of fomenting unrest. The detentions sparked a diplomatic row with the European Union whose leaders are considering withdrawing their ambassadors from Tehran. Only one member of the embassy staff remains in custody but could face trial.

In a speech in Tehran on Monday, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned Western governments that interference in Iranian affairs would have a “negative impact.”

more

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave July 6, 2009 - 9:49am

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