NAIROBI, 19 May 2009 (IRIN) - Somalia's Al-Shabab militia have recently captured several strategic towns near Mogadishu, but the group has yet to gain popularity among locals, observers said.

The onslaught has sent thousands of displaced civilians on the run again and crippled aid operations in the southern regions.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that 40,000 people have been displaced since fighting intensified on 7 May. Other aid workers say at least 150 people have been killed and more than 400 injured.

"The capture of Jowhar goes to the heart of the problem in Somalia and demonstrates that indeed the government in Mogadishu is by and large extremely weak," Timothy Othieno, an analyst at the London-based Overseas Development Institute, told IRIN.

"The government needs to engage with the people who matter, including hardliners, who include Al-Shabab," he added.

Al-Shabab has continued to expand its control of southern and central Somalia and captured Jowhar, 90km north of Mogadishu, on 17 May.

According to a political observer in the capital, however, the capture of Jowhar may be a sign that Al-Shabab has peaked.

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MOGADISHU (AFP) — Ethiopian forces, who pulled out of Somalia in January, on Tuesday crossed back into the war-torn neighbour following a fresh offensive by rebels to topple the fledgling government, witnesses said.

But Ethiopia denied returning to Somalia.

Witnesses in Kalabeyrka village, about 20 kilometres (12 miles) from the border with Ethiopia, on Tuesday reported seeing troops in dozens of armoured vehicles mounting roadblocks.

"Ethiopian forces have been checking vehicles in the Kalabeyrka area. They were asking people where they came from but they were not arresting anybody," said Abdurahman Afey, a truck driver.

Ethiopia's state minister for communications Ermias Legesse told AFP: "No Ethiopian troops have entered Somalia."

Another witness, Mohamed Sheikh Abdi said: "I have seen Ethiopian forces manning checkpoints in Kalabeyrka. They were many and there were also armoured vehicles including big trucks mounted with anti-aircraft weapons."

While admitting that the situation in Somalia was deteriorating, Ethiopian Communications Minister Bereket Simon on Monday ruled out re-deployment.

"We are not contemplating going back there for the moment," he said. "For the moment there is no immediate danger to Ethiopia."

"There is no change in the situation," added Legesse.

Kalabeyrka is located near Beledweyne, the regional capital of Hiran region in central Somalia, some 300 kilometres (185 miles) north of Mogadishu.

Beledweyne is controlled by militias loosely allied to Sharif's government.

Fierce clashes between hardline Islamist insurgents and government troops erupted earlier this month and in two days this week the rebels have seized two key towns north of Mogadishu, sparking fears they would advance to Beledweyne.

The rebel onslaught has been led by the Shebab, a hardline faction accused of links to Al-Qaeda, and Hezb al-Islam, a more political radical group loyal to senior opposition leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys.

The fighting that began on May 7 has killed at least 110 people and displaced some 30,000, mainly in Mogadishu.

Government forces in the capital only control a compound housing the president's office and a few ministry buildings, as well as the airport and the seaport, according to witnesses.

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be far behind?

Somalia and the Question of Foreign Fighters

it must be written by Al-Shabab

bbc

Ethiopia's government has admitted it has "reconnaissance missions" in Somalia, but denies it is re-deploying its troops in the country.

Several thousand Ethiopian troops left Somalia in January after a controversial, two-year intervention in support of the UN-backed government.

But two weeks ago, several witnesses near the border said they had seen Ethiopian troops digging in.

Those reports came after Islamist insurgents made several advances.

"We have no plans to go back to Somalia... [but] there are reconnaissance missions," Information Minister Bereket Simon told reporters.

"When there is a threat, you can send some scouts here and there," he added.

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