As Pakistani government teeters, Holbrooke Hill appearances delayed again
Sun, 05/03/2009 - 6:08pm
FP

As previously reported. U.S. special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke was slated to testify before the Senate and House Foreign Affairs committees this week, but had to reschedule to next week due to scheduling conflicts.

Tonight comes word from the Hill that Holbrooke has had to postpone his rescheduled testimony on U.S. policy to Pakistan before the Senate Foreign Relations Commitee slated for next week until mid May.

"Ridiculous," one Hill foreign policy hand grumbles. "Only Holbrooke can string along the Committee in this fashion."

But Holbrooke has a really good reason. The presidents of Afghanistan and Pakistan are headed to Washington for trilateral meetings next week. And the Pakistani government may be on the verge of collapse.

Indeed, the question arises, will Pakistan's embattled civilian government still be in power by the time Holbrooke gets around to testifying?

As the Washington Independent reports, Centcom commander "Gen. David Petraeus is telling people privately that the next two weeks (!) are a test of the [Pakistani president Asif Ali} Zardari government's survivability."

"Look at [Secretary of State Hilary Clinton]'s comments over the last week to the effect that the Zardari government has abdicated and that the Taliban move toward Islamabad is a 'mortal threat' to the U.S. and the world," a former U.S. intelligence official told The Cable on condition of anonymity. "This sets the stage for a nod to [Pakistani Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez] Kiyani, if it becomes necessary. The administration will have to deal with a Congress that just loves elections, but has never learned that though the Pakistanis are pretty good at elections, they are pretty sorry at running a democracy. Watch the SecState's comments, and those of the president."

more with links, Laura Rozen

Seems like the Obama team are not on message or they are just ratcheting up the rhetoric for more leverage before the meetings start. Theres alot stuff flying around about Pakistan right now, but if it is a coup you want, now is the time ;)

US says Pakistani Nukes are Secure
By Meredith Buel
Washington
04 May 2009

The top U.S. military officer says he is comfortable that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are secure, but he says he is gravely concerned about Taliban advances in the country and neighboring Afghanistan.

Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says the United States has worked with the Pakistani military to improve the security of their nuclear arsenal. He says he believes the weapons will be kept out of the hands of terrorists.

"I remain comfortable that the nuclear weapons in Pakistan are secure," said Admiral Mullen. "That the Pakistani leadership and in particular the military is very focused on this. We, the United States, have invested fairly significantly over the last three years to work with them to improve that security and we are satisfied, very satisfied, with that progress."

US seeks Pakistan nuclear pledge

The US' national security adviser has told the BBC that Washington needs guarantees from Pakistan that its nuclear arsenal is safe from militants.

General James Jones said Pakistan's army had repeatedly told him the stockpile was "under control", but "this is very much an ongoing topic".

actually a step forward if the Pakistani people get involved, lord knows they know how to march :).

We will not surrender to forces harming Pakistan’s interests, says Qureshi

Monday, May 04, 2009

MULTAN: Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi said on Sunday that they would not surrender to the forces harming the interests of the country and distorting the image of Islam.

Addressing the last session of Hazrat Shah Rukn-e-Alam National Conference at the mausoleum of the renowned saint on the last day of the 695th Urs, Qureshi said: “We will not surrender before those who want to impose their own point of view and the political leadership will carry forward this unanimous national message on way to fighting terrorism and extremism, so that no force could dare harm Pakistan’s interests.”

He said a national consensus had been reached as a consequent effect of an evolutionary process against extremism and terrorism. It did not happen overnight, he added. He said people and organisations having different thoughts were converging at one point, only for Pakistan, for the rule of the people and the Constitution, to protect the democratic norms and to save the Federation.

The foreign minister said the Sunni Tehrik had decided to activate itself against Talibanisation. Jamaat Ahl-e-Sunnat leader Syed Mazhar Saeed Kazmi had convened a meeting of Ulema that day and they would project the true picture of Islam and what this religion preached exactly to counter negative thinking, he added.

Commenting on statements from the US officials regarding the Pakistani government, the foreign minister said: “I want to ask the world why they deserted Pakistan and Afghanistan after the former USSR’s withdrawal and why they did not support the democratic forces when dictatorships were imposed on the country.”

He, however, added that they also needed to rectify the past mistakes by forging unity on national issues and by nurturing economy to achieve self reliance.He said they needed to survive within the available resources and move forward with a future planning for a prosperous Pakistan.

Qureshi said the MQM leadership held a meeting of Ulema and Mahsaikh in Karachi and the government was going to convene a grand consultative meeting of Ulema from across the country to seek their guidance.

He said two major political parties of the country were unanimous against fanaticism and terrorism. It would give courage to the people and enhance their passion to fight the menace, he said.

Pakistan’s educated class, which understood Islam correctly, intellectuals, lawyers, civil society and media were also contributing actively to counter the extremism-based thoughts, he added.

An overwhelming majority of the people loved Islam, but not the kind of Islam miscreants were trying to impose at gunpoint in Dir, Buner and other troubled areas, Qureshi said. Unlike the way of the Sufis and saints, who won the people’s hearts and minds, these elements wanted to impose their misguided and extremist thoughts by force, he said. The foreign minister said the armed forces were playing a very important role and its personnel were sacrificing their lives to defend the ideology of Pakistan and to save the country from internal and external threats.

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The US has already signaled ("mortal threat") that the Pakistani military has to do what it takes to prevent a widening Taliban insurgency. This is tantamount to W's communication to Mush just after 9/11 that "you are either with us or against us."

The US has let Pakistan know that the US is now a greater potential threat to Pakistan than India is. This will involve either an actual military coup or else one that operates behind the scenes to prevent a failed state. Otherwise, we can start calling in the Pakistani-Afghan War with NATO heavily involved and the US leading the way. I can't imagine the Europeans being any more anxious than the US for nukes and ballistic missiles falling into militant hands.

Feed Me Seymour, feed me

President Hamid Karzai selects former warlord as Afghan election running mate

Hamid Karzai today defied intense international pressure not to pick a former warlord as his running mate for his campaign to be elected as president of Afghanistan for another four years.

The president confirmed the fears of western diplomats by registering himself as a candidate in the 20 August poll along with Mohammad Fahim, whom he has selected as one of his two would-be vice-presidents.

The former militia leader, who goes by the honorary title of Marshal Fahim, is disliked by many Afghans who are suspicious of the wealth he has acquired since 2001 and disliked by the west for his opposition to the disbandment of the private armies of Afghanistan's warlords. more

In Karachi and Islamabad they really believe the US was behind 9/11. That is why opposition to the jihadists is so lukewarm

By, Anatol Lieven

The war that has resumed between the Pakistani Army and the Taleban in the northern mountains of Pakistan is not between two clearly defined sides, with clearly defined victory and defeat. It is, instead, an extremely complicated mixture of war and politics, in which episodes of extreme violence alternate with periods of negotiation.

One of those violent periods is resuming now. Barely two months after a peace deal with the Taleban to create a Sharia system in the Swat district, the army is back on the offensive. The Taleban overstepped an unwritten mark when they tried to extend their control into the district of Buner, barely 60 miles northwest of Pakistan's capital, Islamabad. The army chief, General Asfaq Kayani, stated clearly that a challenge to the existence of the Pakistani state would not be tolerated.

What will be tolerated is Taleban strength in the tribal areas of northwest Pakistan. As I discovered during a visit to the region last September, the level of support for them there is such that crushing them completely would take a huge campaign of repression.

As long as this conflict remains restricted to the mountains, in many ways the most important prize is not control of territory as such, but the support of the local population.

There are many reasons why this is so, and why even many Pakistanis who deeply oppose Taleban rule are also opposed to a tough military campaign against them. One is that the jihad of the Afghan Taleban against the US “occupation” of Afghanistan enjoys overwhelming public approval in northern Pakistan, at least to judge by my interviews on the streets and in the bazaars, and the Pakistani Taleban gain a great measure of prestige from their alliance with this jihad.

Another is that, with the exception of some of the higher courts, the Pakistani judicial system is such a corrupt, slow, impenetrable shambles that the Taleban's programme of Sharia enjoys a great deal of public support, at least in the Pashtun areas that I have visited. Finally, the security Establishment is determined to prevent Afghanistan becoming an ally of India, and continues to shelter parts of the Afghan Taleban as a long-term “strategic asset” against this threat.
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_{Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.}

Porous Border With Pakistan Could Hinder U.S. Troops

a pretty crappy article that offers nothing new and makes one wonder if this is the first article ever written by the NYT about the pak/afghan border :D

funny how the US doesn't want Pakistan to blame problems on the US while at the same time the US uses Pakistan as an excuse for their problems and inability to secure Afghanistan.

Tuesday, 5 May 2009
The Independent

When Asif Ali Zardari sees Barack Obama at the White House tomorrow for what is expected to be a tense meeting, the stakes could scarcely be higher.

Pakistanis had grown used to headlines writing off their country as a "nation on the brink". They would read them, dismiss them with a sigh and get on with their lives. But with Taliban fighters moving ever closer to Islamabad and efforts to broker a ceasefire in tatters, many Pakistanis are now publicly despairing about their country's fate.

So what's brought about the shift? First there was the harrowing video purporting to show militants in Swat flogging a teenage girl. Then Taliban fighters seized control of Buner, a strategically important valley just 60 miles from the capital. Finally, there were the comments from Sufi Muhammad – the cleric supposed to be brokering peace between the militants and the government – describing institutions including parliament as un-Islamic.

The evidence of spreading Talibanisation was sufficiently disturbing to kick-start Mr Zardari's government and the military into action. They launched an offensive to drive the militants from Buner. Meanwhile, 6,000 troops diverted to the Indian border have moved back to the North-west. "The national mood is changing," one Pakistani official admitted. "People got scared, which is good."

In Washington, there remains deep unease about the ability of Mr Zardari to confront extremists who may control up to 12 per cent of Pakistan, and whether the US should be pouring in more money with little accountability. The US is set to deliver $7.5bn to Islamabad during the next five years and up to $1.5bn within the next few weeks. While officials are heartened by the new offensive, Mr Obama recently described Pakistan's situation as a "grave concern" and there are said to be new anxieties over the safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

"No one is optimistic. There are not a lot of good options," said Christine Fair, a Washington-based analyst. "What we need from Zardari is some real leadership; to be someone who will stand up and say we are fighting for the future of our country, rather than trying to blame the US for the problems." Mr Zardari, who regularly points out that his widow, Benazir Bhutto, was killed by militants, could respond by pointing out that US insistence on launching missile strikes against suspected militants is unpopular and counter-productive.

Faced with few alternatives, the Obama administration will probably conclude the meeting by voicing support for Mr Zardari. At the same time it has also been reaching out to his rival, Nawaz Sharif. Officials said the pair have been urged to work together, but Washington may also be developing a "Plan B".

Mr Zardari is one of two visitors to be briefed on Mr Obama's AfPak policy. The other is Afghan leader Hamid Karzai, a man whose inability to exert control outside Kabul makes Mr Zardari appear like a positive strongman. Mr Obama had hoped to bring stability to Afghanistan by exerting control through Pakistan. Instead, the current focus is simply on helping a civilian government in Pakistan survive. For once, the views of a deeply concerned Washington and a despairing Pakistani public may actually chime.

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BBC

A senior Pakistani official has urged residents to evacuate the troubled Swat valley in the north-west.

Head of local administration Khushal Khan said the authorities were lifting a curfew so that people could leave areas near the main town of Mingora.

Earlier this year, Taleban militants operating in the Swat region agreed a peace deal with the government.

But the deal has been under intense pressure recently with the Taleban expanding operations into nearby areas.

The BBC's Syed Shoaib Hasan in Islamabad says the latest developments are an indication that the authorities are getting ready to launch an operation against the militants in Swat.

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Posted on Tue, May. 05, 2009
Saeed Shah | McClatchy Newspapers

last updated: May 04, 2009 08:28:09 PM

CHINGLAI, Pakistan — The Pakistani army's assault against Islamic militants in Buner, in northwest Pakistan, is flattening villages, killing civilians and sending thousands of farmers and villagers fleeing from their homes, residents escaping the fighting said Monday.

"We didn't see any Taliban; they are up in the mountains, yet the army flattens our villages," Zaroon Mohammad, 45, told McClatchy as he walked with about a dozen scrawny cattle and the male members of his family in the relative safety of Chinglai village in southern Buner. "Our house has been badly damaged. These cows are now our total possessions."

Mohammad's and other residents' accounts of the fighting contradict those from the Pakistani military and suggest that the government of President Asif Ali Zardari is rapidly losing the support of those it had set out to protect.

The heavy-handed tactics are ringing alarm bells in Washington, where the Obama administration is struggling to devise a strategy to halt the militants' advances. Officials Monday talked about the need to train the Pakistani military, which has long been fixated on fighting armored battles with India, in counterinsurgency warfare, but it may be too late for that.

Navy Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters Monday that the Pakistani army in recent years has undertaken "bursts of fighting and engagement" fighting insurgents, but that its operations were "not sustained" by follow-up measures.

The army is now using force, but it also must hold and rebuild the area it conquers, he said. "There's a military piece" to the operation, he said, "but there also needs to be a hold and build aspect of it."

Another U.S. official, who closely tracks Pakistan developments, said the Pakistan army is "just destroying stuff. They have zero ability to deliver (aid) services."

"They hold villages completely accountable for the actions of a few, and that kind of operation produces a lot of (internally displaced persons) and a lot of angst," said a senior defense official. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

In Buner, the Pakistani military appears to be losing public support in a stridently anti-Taliban district whose residents had raised their own militia to defend themselves against the militants, who last month seized control of the district about 60 miles from Islamabad, the capital.

Mohammad, who'd walked for two days with his cattle to escape the offensive against the Taliban, and other farmers accused the military of using poorly directed artillery and air power to pound civilian areas.

"They shouldn't use the army in this (indiscriminate) way. They should be targeted at the Taliban," said Saed Afsar Khan, who was leaving Buner with 18 members of his family and two cows. He estimated that the army had destroyed 80 of the 400 houses in his village of Kawga, near the key battlefield of Ambela.

"I don't think they've killed even one Taliban," he said. "Only ordinary people."

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Published: May 4, 2009
Updated 9 hours ago

Two top US senators unveiled plans Monday to expand and overhaul civilian US aid to Pakistan, calling it an urgent step to help defeat Islamists who threaten the nuclear-armed ally’s stability.

Democrat John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Republican Richard Lugar, the panel’s ranking member, introduced legislation calling for tripling US civilian aid to Pakistan to 1.5 billion dollars per year over the next five years.

The move came as US President Barack Obama was to host presidents Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan for talks Wednesday aimed at defeating Islamist extremists who threaten both governments.

Asked whether there was still time to help Zardari, Kerry replied: “While governments might change at some point in time — who knows? — I don’t believe the country itself is about to fall apart.”

Kerry said about 100 million dollars would go to police reforms, training, and equipment, and left the door open to some funds going to Pakistan’s military, if needed.

Lugar, the panel’s ranking Republican, underscored that the measure “is not a blank check,” pointing to requirements that Pakistan security forces “turn their attention to the extremist dangers within Pakistan’s borders.”

The three-way summit on Wednesday comes amid growing concerns in Washington that Taliban fighters pushing ever-deeper into Pakistan could get their hands on the country’s nuclear arsenal.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Obama would raise concerns on that front during the talks, but sidestepped questions about a New York Times report that US officials are growing more anxious about the issue.

But the top US military chief, Admiral Michael Mullen, said the arsenal was secure and ruled out that atomic weapons could fall into the hands of Taliban militants.

“I don’t think that’s going to happen … but it is a strategic concern that we all share,” said Mullen, who declared: “I remain comfortable that the nuclear weapons in Pakistan are secure.”

Kerry and Lugar were to host Karzai and Zardari as well as US special envoy Richard Holbrooke at a 70-guest lunch in the US Capitol on Thursday to flesh out the legislative proposal, aides said.

Lugar said Obama, Karzai and Zardari ought to discuss the nuclear issue “very candidly” this week and said Pakistan may need more security help “to make certain that there is that safety, for them, for us and for the world.”

The new legislation aims to reassure Pakistan’s population of 170 million people that the United States stands with them and does not link aid from Washington to whatever governments sits in Islamabad.

It conditions US military help on certification that Pakistan security forces are doing their utmost against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban from using Pakistan’s territory as a base while “not materially interfering” in the country’s political or judicial processes.

It also calls for “benchmarks for measuring the effectiveness of US assistance” at a time when many in the US Congress are openly skeptical of the effectiveness and desirability of boosting US aid to Islamabad.

It would also require US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in cooperation with Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, to craft annual reports on Pakistani security forces.

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New York Times, By Thom Shanker, May 5

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — As the Obama administration prepares for talks this week with senior leaders from Afghanistan and Pakistan, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates flew to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to seek help in pushing back Taliban advances in Pakistan that, he said, threaten the very existence of the government in Islamabad.

Mr. Gates said Saudi Arabia “clearly has a lot of influence throughout the region,” and he cited its “long-standing and close relationship with Pakistan.”

The defense secretary called on Pakistan’s allies across the region to assist in countering insurgent successes that represent a growing danger to Pakistan, and Mr. Gates said a goal of this week’s meetings with Afghan and Pakistani leaders in Washington would be to reach consensus on the nature of the threat.

In the past, the Pakistani government and its military have been far more focused on their traditional adversary, India, than on the domestic insurgency.

May 6, 2009
Pakistani Army Poised for New Push into Swat
By CARLOTTA GALL

PESHAWAR, Pakistan — Residents flooded out of the Swat Valley by the thousands on Tuesday as the government prepared to mount a new military campaign against Taliban militants and as a much-criticized peace accord with the insurgents fell apart.

People crammed into cars and buses and headed south after the local government told residents to leave Swat before a government military offensive. On Sunday, heavily armed, black-turbaned Taliban fighters seized control of Mingora, Swat’s capital.

Since then, Taliban and government forces have accused each other of scuttling the peace accord, and they traded gun and mortar fire.

The Taliban had dug in and laid mines in the streets, girding for battle, residents said.

The military push toward Swat comes as President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan is scheduled to meet on Wednesday with President Obama in Washington, where American officials have sharply criticized the peace accord and urged the government to fight the Taliban.

Two weeks ago, the Taliban used the territory all but ceded to them under the accord to push into another district, Buner, just 60 miles from the capital, prompting American calls for tougher action.

A new operation in Swat may signal the harder stance American officials have been looking for. But the question remains whether the Pakistani military has the will and capability to sustain its operations against the insurgents, the vast majority of whom are Pakistani.

The American special envoy for the region, Richard C. Holbrooke, said Tuesday that the situation in Pakistan was fragile, but he welcomed the turn toward wider military action.

“Until yesterday, the momentum did not appear to be in the right hands,” he told Congress. “The army has now begun a major offensive. We’ll have to wait and see how it goes.”

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