OTTAWA–Prime Minister Stephen Harper appeared to dampen expectations Friday that all of Canada's demands on Afghanistan will be met during next week's NATO leaders summit in Romania.

While he remains confident the military alliance will come through with 1,000 reinforcements and extra equipment, Harper suggested it all might take more time to accomplish than the two-day meeting among 26 leaders.

"I anticipate in the weeks to come there will be additional commitments made in Afghanistan by some of our allies," he said while visiting northern Quebec.

"I don't think we will necessarily finish that process at Bucharest but we will finish it in the very near future."

It was widely expected that French President Nicolas Sarkozy would use the gathering of NATO leaders on April 2-4 to announce that his country was sending additional troops. Instead, he largely made his intentions known during a visit this week to Britain, prompting an immediate uproar back home.

It's not clear whether French troops would go to eastern or southern Afghanistan, but there is a strong suggestion they'll likely deploy to a province south of Kabul. Such a move would free American troops to bolster the Canadian positions in Kandahar.
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Backing an operation that has rekindled violence could prove a miscalculation for Bush, some of his allies say.

By Peter Spiegel, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
March 29, 2008

WASHINGTON -- As U.S. forces are drawn further into renewed fighting, the potential for deepening chaos in Iraq is raising questions about whether the Bush administration made a wise decision or a costly miscalculation in backing an Iraqi government offensive against Shiite militias.

President Bush said Friday that the offensive answered critics who have accused Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's Shiite Muslim-dominated government of inaction and of favoritism toward Shiites.

"I would say this is a defining moment in the history of a free Iraq," Bush said at the White House.

"The decision to move troops, Iraqi troops, into Basra talks about Prime Minister Maliki's leadership."

But some of the administration's allies have begun to question the timing and wisdom of the offensive, which has met with stiff resistance since it was launched Tuesday in the southern city of Basra. Since then, fighting against Shiite militiamen has spread through much of southern Iraq and into Baghdad. Iraqi forces have called in U.S. airstrikes to fend off well-armed groups in Basra, including an attack by a Navy jet on a mortar position.

Signifying the potential difficulty ahead, other U.S. assets, including special-operations forces and spy planes, are expected to join the fight.

Within the Pentagon, officers expressed concern about the rapid spillover of violence into areas where U.S. forces have spent more than a year painstakingly working to restore order, especially the Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad.

U.S. officials have long believed that Iraqi militias should be disbanded. But military analysts inside and outside the Pentagon are questioning whether this was the time and place to do it.

The offensive comes two weeks before Army Gen. David H. Petraeus is to testify before Congress on his plans for Iraq.

Petraeus is known for opening his recent presentations by displaying what aides call his favorite slide: a chart showing attacks in Iraq spiking last year, then dramatically dropping amid the deployment of 28,500 additional U.S. troops.

Pentagon officials worry that the recent violence will mar that otherwise compelling narrative.

The extra troops are scheduled to leave by the end of July, and Petraeus is expected to make a recommendation on whether and how fast troops should be sent home after that.

As violence has spread this week, the relative calm that had been returning to Baghdad was disrupted by images that recalled the sectarian war before the troop buildup: repeated shelling of the fortified Green Zone; demonstrations by outraged Shiites; checkpoints in the slums of Sadr City manned by Mahdi Army militiamen loyal to cleric Muqtada Sadr, who say they are being unfairly targeted in the offensive.

The U.S. Embassy was locked down and Baghdad is under a curfew.

In his White House appearance Friday with Kevin Rudd, the new Australian prime minister, Bush seemed unsure about the reasons for the timing of the offensive, saying he had yet to talk to Maliki about it.

"I'm not exactly sure what triggered the prime minister's response," he said.

Bush said the offensive showed the newfound capability of the Iraqi armed forces and the resolve of the country's leaders, especially Maliki. But Maliki, who traveled to Basra to personally oversee the operation, faces a heavy political cost if it bogs down, and he is already confronting demands that he resign.

The 4-day-old offensive was launched by Maliki to confront those outside the law, Bush said, explaining that Basra is an Iraqi port with goods and services that has drawn criminals.

"This is a test and a moment for the Iraqi government," he said.

"And it is an interesting moment for the people of Iraq because . . . they must have confidence in their government's ability to protect them and to be evenhanded."

But retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, an architect of last year's troop buildup, suggested Friday that Maliki acted out of personal animus toward Sadr, rather than in the best interest of Iraq.

"He's a very impulsive person," Keane said of Maliki in an NPR interview. "I think that's what happened here. I think he's way out in front of what the military realities on the ground are."

Gary J. Schmitt, a military analyst at the American Enterprise Institute who was an early supporter of the buildup, said he believed the administration was taken by surprise by Maliki's decision, but that with provincial elections set for October, the central government had to act.

"Tactically, this might not have been the optimal moment, or they may not have prepared as well as they should have. But I think it was quite predictable," Schmitt said. "With the elections coming, it should have been understood as a necessity."

The operation could also affect the U.S. presidential campaign. Continued violence would hinder the ability of Republican Sen. John McCain, an early supporter of the troop increase, to campaign on the success of that strategy. It would also trip up Bush's hopes of leaving office with Iraq appearing to at last be on a glide path to stability.

To prevent drastic deterioration, Keane suggested, U.S. troops may need to be sent south to aid the Iraqis, who took control of Basra's province three months ago from British forces, which have been rapidly withdrawing from the region over the last year.

"In the near term, the Iraqis wanted to do this by themselves, and I can understand our commanders certainly letting them go ahead and give it a try," Keane said. "We may find ourselves also providing some ground forces, although we would do that reluctantly because of the efforts that we have up north to finish Al Qaeda once and for all."

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said any decision to move U.S. troops to southern Iraq would be "a commander's call."

But as American commanders struggle to deal with the end of the U.S. buildup, other Pentagon officials said, a move to send backup units to southern Iraq is unlikely.

peter.spiegel@latimes.com

LONDON - The Taliban announced the start of a spring offensive in Afghanistan, promising "painful strikes" to force all enemy soldiers to leave, according to a web message seen by a U.S.-based monitoring service yesterday.

NATO-led forces have conducted wide-ranging offensives in southern Afghanistan to disrupt the insurgents ahead of spring, which each year heralds a surge in violence as the snows melt and fighters emerge from their mountain hideouts.

The web message entitled "Taliban declares beginning of spring offensive in Afghanistan" was from Mullah Bradar Akhund, who styles himself deputy emir of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, according to a translation by the SITE Institute terrorism monitoring service seen in London.

"The winter season is about to end, and here spring looms on the horizon, and in order for the continuity of doing the holy jihad, with the coming spring season, the Islamic Emirate begins a new series of operations under the name 'Admonition'," it said.

"Our aim in these operations is to give the enemy an admonishing lesson through conclusive and painful strikes that he does not anticipate, until he knows and is compelled to end the occupation of Afghanistan and withdraw until the last soldier leaves."

The insurgents have already vowed to intensify attacks on Afghan and foreign troops countrywide, launch a wave of suicide bombings and attack supply lines from Pakistan this year in their campaign to overthrow the pro-Western government.

Last year saw a record level of violence in Afghanistan that killed nearly 6,000 people, about a third of them civilians. More than 200 foreign troops were killed in Afghanistan in 2007.
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Death toll mounts in Baghdad fighting
29 Mar 2008 09:29:01 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Peter Graff

BAGHDAD, March 29 (Reuters) - The death toll mounted on Saturday in fighting in Baghdad where U.S. forces have been drawn deeper into an Iraqi government crackdown on militants loyal to Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

A top Sadr aide said Sadr's representatives had met Iraq's highest Shi'ite religious authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, in an effort to end the violence. The Sadr aide, Salah al-Ubaidi, said Sistani called for a peaceful solution.

At least 75 people have been killed and more than 450 wounded in days of clashes and U.S. air strikes in Sadr City, a vast slum of about 2 million people, said Qassim Mohammed, spokesman for the health directorate for eastern Baghdad.

Health workers say the slum's two hospitals are overflowing and understaffed, and a ring of Iraqi and U.S. forces around Sadr City makes it impossible to evacuate the wounded.

More than 200 people have been reported killed and many hundreds wounded in the five days of fighting across southern Iraq and Baghdad since Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki launched a crackdown on Sadr's followers in the southern city of Basra.

Maliki has announced he will fight the militants in Basra "until the end". He issued orders to his commanders in Baghdad to pursue militants in the capital with "no mercy".

Washington says the crackdown is a sign the Iraqi government is serious about imposing its will and capable of acting on its own. But so far government forces have failed to drive Sadr's fighters from the streets.

U.S. forces described a number of gun battles in Baghdad including one in which they said they killed 10 gunmen who attacked a joint U.S.-Iraqi security station. The Americans have used helicopter gunships and artillery.

Mortar bombs and rockets have caused havoc in the capital all week. Strikes on the fortified Green Zone government and diplomatic compound forced the U.S. embassy to order staff to wear helmets and body armour.

A curfew is in place in Baghdad, closing shops, businesses and schools. Residents are confined to their homes in areas where there has been fighting.

RIFT

The conflict exposes a deep rift within Iraq's majority Shi'ite community, between the political parties in Maliki's government who control the security forces and Sadr's followers who in many areas rule the streets.

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BASRA, Iraq (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/7421330) - Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is vowing to remain in Basra overseeing operations against Shiite militias until security in the city is restored.

Al-Maliki has told tribal leaders in the southern city that he ``will not leave Basra until security is restored'' and those who have taken up arms against the government are punished.

He promised to ``stand up to these gangs'' throughout Iraq and called Basra ``a decisive and final battle.''

Saturday's broadcast by government television came four days after Iraqi troops launched their crackdown against Shiite militias and gangs in the city.

By RYAN LENZ

Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD (AP) - U.S. jets widened the bombing of Basra on Saturday, dropping two precision-guided bombs on a suspected militia stronghold north of the city, British officials said.

Maj. Tom Holloway, a British military spokesman, said U.S. jets dropped the two bombs on a militia position in Qarmat Ali shortly before 12:30 p.m.

Basra is Iraq's commercial and oil hub, and militant followers of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have been battling Iraqi and coalition forces in the southern city since Tuesday.

``My understanding was that this was a building that had people who were shooting back at Iraqi ground forces,'' Holloway said.

The number of people killed in the latest strikes was not yet known, he said.

Iraqi police said that earlier in the day a U.S. warplane strafed a house and killed eight civilians, including two women and one child. They spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to release the information. The U.S. military had no immediate comment on the report and it was not possible to independently verify it.

British jets also have been providing air support in the area. The British military had no immediate information but said it also was looking into the reports of civilian casualties.

American forces launched their first airstrikes in Basra Friday as Iraqi troops struggled against strong resistance in the nation's commercial center and headquarters of the vital oil industry. Clashes there have sparked retaliatory fights in Baghdad and other Shiite cities.

The fight for Basra is crucial for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who flew to Basra earlier this week and is staking his credibility on gaining control of Iraq's second largest city, which has essentially been held by armed groups for nearly three years.

Al-Maliki, speaking on government television Saturday, told tribal leaders in the southern city that he ``will not leave Basra until security is restored'' and those who have taken up arms against the government will be punished.

``We will continue to stand up to these gangs in every inch of Iraq,'' he said. ``This is a decisive and final battle.''

Al-Sadr called on his followers to defy government orders to surrender their weapons, saying arms of the Mahdi Army should only be turned over to a national leadership ``that can get the occupier'' - meaning the Americans their coalition allies - out of Iraq.

The order was made public by Haidar al-Jabiri, a member of the political commission of the Sadrist movement.

AP Television News footage showed smoke rising from the home in Basra's Hananiyah neighborhood where the police said the civilians were killed. Pools of blood and a destroyed pickup truck were seen outside the home hit by the plane.

Sheik Nasir Abdul Hussein in Basra said the strikes came after midnight and were followed by gunmen shooting in the air.

``The thunder of the aircraft frightened children,'' he said. ``The sound smashed glasses, and the area was lighted by aircraft.''

The crackdown in Basra has provoked a violent reaction - especially from al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. His followers accuse rival Shiite parties in the government of trying to crush their movement before provincial elections this fall.

Their anger has led to a sharp increase in attacks against American troops in Shiite areas following months of relative calm after al-Sadr declared a unilateral cease-fire last August and recently extended it for six months.

In extracts of an interview broadcast by the Al-Jazeera television network, al-Sadr called Saturday for Arab leaders to voice their support for Iraq's ``resistance'' to what he calls foreign occupation.

Many Shiite militias, including the Mahdi Army, are believed to receive weapons, money and training from nearby Iran, the world's most populous Shiite nation.

After a Friday deadline for gunmen to surrender their weapons and renounce violence expired with few complying, al-Maliki's office announced a new deal, offering Basra residents unspecified monetary compensation if they turn over ``heavy and medium-size weapons'' by April 8.

In Baghdad, Iraqi police said U.S. helicopters carried out airstrikes on the Shiite neighborhood of Sadr City Friday night. Television footage showed destroyed buildings and the smoking wreckage of at least one car.

The U.S. military said in an e-mail that the only air assault it carried out last night was in the Kazamiyah neighborhood, west of Sadr City, killing 10 militants.

Iraq's Health Ministry, which is close to the Sadrist movement, on Saturday reported at least 75 civilians have been killed and at least 500 others injured in a week of clashes and airstrikes in Sadr City and other eastern Baghdad neighborhoods.

The U.S. military sharply disputes the claims, having said that most of those killed were militia members.

Some 40 policemen in Sadr City handed over their weapons to al-Sadr's local office, one of the policemen told The Associated Press on Saturday.

``We can't fight our brothers in the Mahdi Army, so we came here to submit our weapons,'' the policeman said on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

The police in Sadr City have long been believed heavily influenced or infiltrated by Mahdi militiamen.

AP Television News footage showed a group of about a dozen uniformed police, their faces covered with masks to shield their identity, being met by Sheik Salman al-Feraiji, al-Sadr's chief representative in Sadr City.

Al-Feraiji greeted each policeman and gave them a copy of the Quran and an olive branch as they handed over their guns and ammunition.

more

Link to WaPo Article

By Sudarsan Raghavan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, March 29, 2008; Page A01

BAGHDAD, March 28 -- The gunfire struck like thunderclaps, building to a steady rhythm. American soldiers in a Stryker armored vehicle fired away from one end of the block. At the other end, two groups of Shiite militiamen pounded back with heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. American helicopters circled above in the blue afternoon sky.

As a heavy barrage erupted outside his parents' house, Abu Mustafa al-Thahabi, a political and military adviser to the Mahdi Army of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, rushed through the purple gate and took shelter behind the thick walls. He had just spoken with a fighter by cellphone. "I told him not to use that weapon. It's not effective," he said, referring to a rocket-propelled grenade. "I told him to use the IED, the Iranian one," he added, using the shorthand for an improvised explosive device. "This is more effective."

* * * * * (from the third page)

The fighters also said they received neither support nor training from Iran, as U.S. military commanders allege. Their Iranian weapons, they said, were bought from smugglers. They said they had been fighting only American soldiers and had not yet engaged with any Iraqi forces inside Sadr City.

'Standing up' Iraq army looks open-ended

By CHARLES J. HANLEY, AP Special Correspondent

Iraq's new army is "developing steadily," with "strong Iraqi leaders out front," the chief U.S. trainer assured the American people.

That was three-plus years ago, the U.S. Army general was David H. Petraeus, and some of those Iraqi officials at the time were busy embezzling more than $1 billion allotted for the new army's weapons, according to investigators.

The 2004-05 Defense Ministry scandal was just one in an unending series of setbacks in the five-year struggle to "stand up" an Iraqi military and allow hard-pressed U.S. forces to "stand down" from Iraq.

The latest discouraging episode was unfolding this weekend in bloody Basra, the southern city where Iraqi government forces — in their toughest test yet — were still struggling to gain the upper hand in a five-day-old battle with Shiite Muslim militias.

Year by year, the goal of deploying a capable, freestanding Iraqi army has seemed always to slip further into the future. In the latest shift, with Petraeus now U.S. commander in Iraq, the Pentagon's new quarterly status report quietly drops any prediction of when homegrown units will take over security responsibility nationwide, after last year's reports had forecast a transition in 2008.

Earlier, in January last year, President Bush said Iraqi forces would take charge in all 18 Iraqi provinces by November 2007. Four months past that deadline, they control only half the 18.

CNN Article

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- U.S. forces, backing up Iraqi troops battling Shiite militants, bombed Basra on Saturday as about 40 Iraqi police commandos based in Baghdad deserted to join a militia.

* * * * * *

Several U.S. officials told CNN on Friday that the Iraqi military push is not going as well as American officials had hoped.

A U.S. military intelligence analysis found that Iraqi security forces control less than a quarter of Basra, officials in both the United States and Iraq said.

"This is going to go on for a while," one U.S. military official told CNN.

Basra's police units are deeply infiltrated by members of the Mehdi Army.

At least 40 Iraqi national police in Baghdad have deserted and joined the Mehdi Army militia led by Muqtada al-Sadr, taking their U.S.-supplied weapons with them, according to an Iraqi Interior Ministry official.

______________________________________________________________________
In contrast -

British army says it has joined in Iraq fighting by firing artillery into Basra

* * * * *

"Iraqi forces were demanding, requesting our support and we were in a position to provide it," he told BBC television.

He said the situation inside the city was still "relatively fluid."

"There are still a number of militia, criminal strong points in the city and we know where they are," Holloway said. "Elsewhere, they are consolidating their positions and gains from previous days."

due to US "air support" of the operation mounted against Shi'ite militias. Bulk of wounded/dead are civilians, and of course the US military says "no reports of civilian casualties", blah-blah-yadda. And the beat goes on...

Times UK

James Hider in Baghdad

Abu Iman barely flinched when the Iraqi Government ordered his unit of special police to move against al-Mahdi Army fighters in Basra.

His response, while swift, was not what British and US military trainers who have spent the past five years schooling the Iraqi security forces would have hoped for. He and 15 of his comrades took off their uniforms, kept their government-issued rifles and went over to the other side without a second thought.

Such turncoats are the thread that could unravel the British Army’s policy in southern Iraq. The military hoped that local forces would be able to combat extremists and allow the Army to withdraw gradually from the battle-scarred and untamed oil city that has fallen under the sway of Islamic fundamentalists, oil smugglers and petty tribal warlords. But if the British taught the police to shoot straight, they failed to instil a sense of unwavering loyalty to the State.

“We know the outcome of the fighting in advance because we already defeated the British in the streets of Basra and forced them to withdraw to their base,” Abu Iman told The Times.

“If we go back a bit, everyone remembers the fight with the US in Najaf and the damage and defeat we inflicted on them. Do you think the Iraqi Army is better than those armies? We are right and the Government is wrong. [Nouri al] Maliki [the Iraqi Prime Minister] is driving his Government into the ground.”

The reason for his apparent switch of sides was simple: the 36-year-old was already a member of the al-Mahdi Army which, like other militias, has massively infiltrated the British-trained police force in the southern oil city. He claimed that hundreds of others from the 16,000-strong force have also defected to the rebels’ ranks.Abu Iman joined the new Iraqi police force after the invasion, joining the Mugawil, a special police unit infamous for brutality, kidnapping and sectarian murders.

(MORE at the link. Again, the surge is working. Their surge, that is.)

and the sheer folly of attempting to portray "the battle of/for Basra" in simplistic, formulaic terms ("good guys, bad guys, terrorists", etc.).
Reidar Visser has been following the politics of Southern Iraq for several years, and here is his latest update on what is at stakes for the competing actors:

The Enigmatic Second Battle of Basra
By Reidar Visser (www.historiae.org)

On the surface, the story may look plausible enough. A provincial city rich in oil degenerates into mafia-style conditions affecting the security of citizens as well as the national oil revenue; the central government intervenes to clean up. This is how many in the media have been reporting the latest clashes between government forces and militiamen in Basra: the Maliki government has launched a security operation with the single aim of getting rid of unruly militias. Pundits with ties to the Bush administration have added that these are essential “preparations” for this autumn’s provincial elections, or moves to forestall Iranian influence in Basra, or both.

But on closer inspection, there are problems in these accounts. Perhaps most importantly, there is a discrepancy between the description of Basra as a city ruled by militias (in the plural) – which is doubtless correct – and the battlefield facts of the ongoing operations which seem to target only one of these militia groups, the Mahdi Army loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr. Surely, if the aim was to make Basra a safer place, it would have been logical to do something to also stem the influence of the other militias loyal to the local competitors of the Sadrists, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), as well as the armed groups allied to the Fadila party (which have dominated the oil protection services for a long time). But so far, only Sadrists have complained about attacks by government forces.

Others may suggest that rather than having to do with the rule of law, this is part of a wider operation in which Maliki in alliance with ISCI are doing their best to marginalize their political enemies locally – in preparation for local elections in October 2008, or with a view to dominate the process of forming federal entities (which could start next month, in April). Maybe it has been supported by Washington, as compensation for the bitter pill which Dick Cheney brought with him in the shape of a demand for early provincial elections? But whereas that sort of interpretation certainly seemed valid during the first battle of Basra (when Maliki arrived in Basra in late May 2006 and enforced a new security regime that was applauded by ISCI and denounced by Fadila), it does not quite make sense today.
(more...)

http://historiae.org/sawlah.asp

The supreme irony of the US's position is that Iranian interests are being promoted, which is the logical outcome of strategies adopted previously to ensure the primacy of the al-Maliki/ISCI (formerly SCIRI) faction, ignoring the nationalist proclivities of the Sadr wing. Or, perhaps that is the intention anyway: preservation of a fragmented country, devoid of a central, organising government, and readily subsumed into a client-state relationship with the US, in order to avoid falling into an Iranian sphere of influence...absolute circular reasoning, but, there you have it.

26 March 2008

as the US military's attention is drawn to renewed fighting in Basra and Baghdad, artillery and air-raids were directed against "PKK strongholds" inside Iraq, near the Turkish border:

Turkish army says kills 15 PKK in N Iraq
Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:18am EDT

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey's armed forces killed 15 members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq on Thursday using long-range land weapons, and then followed up with air strikes, they said on Saturday.

It was the first time Turkish forces had killed a group of Kurdish rebels inside northern Iraq since the end of a large-scale ground incursion into the neighboring country last month, according to information given by the armed forces.

The General Staff said on its website that the militants were trying to cross into Turkey, where they planned an attack.

The army fired on the separatists with long-range weapons, killing 15, and then launched air strikes in the same area of northern Iraq on Friday. It was unclear how many had been killed in the air strikes.

On the other side of the border on Saturday, troops pursued rebels in the mountainous province of Sirnak, backed up by attack helicopters, security sources said.
...
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2923297920080329

national-resistance". This via Badger@MissingLinks, excerpted from "Al-Hayat"...

Remarks reported this morning by Maliki, a US State Dept official, and the Iraqi Defense Minister indicate they wish they could put this genie back in the bottle, and the reason appears to be a general anxiety to the effect this could into a national resistance movement.

AlHayat reports this morning (Saturday March 29) the following:

Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki--who extended his deadline for the militias to surrender their arms in exchange for monetary rewards to April 8--was intent on stressing that he did not invite the coalition forces in Iraq to participate in the Basra operations, and persons close to Maliki justified this by explaining the government's desire not to turn this fighting into a confrontation between the resistance and the occupation forces. In addition to confirming the Iraqi forces' ability in the field.

In other words, and it seems quite logical, Maliki is becoming concerned that what was supposed to be a mopping-up operation in Basra shows signs of turning into a nationwide uprising against the occupation forces (to which he owes his safety and that of his government).

A peculiar remark by a State Department official indicates the same anxiety (also quoted in this same Al-Hayat article):

The director of the Iraq office in the American State Department Richard Schmierer told AlHayat, in this same context, that "the Sadr current has a bright political future, once [there has been] success in the operation in Basra, which is something that targets extremists and criminals who have found refuge in the movement of Moqtada al-Sadr, and legal cover, without his agreement".

The remarks of Iraqi defense minister Abdul Qadr Jassem are in the same vein. According to Azzaman

He said at a press conference in Basra that the armed people in Basra took the Iraqi security forces by surprise. "The Iraqi government imagined that this would be a normal operation. It was surprised by the level of resistance, and was obliged to change its policy and tactics."

These remarks by Maliki, US State Dept, and Iraqi Defense Dept indicate a common concern: Maliki: "Please god, don't let the Iraqi people conclude that I am fighting Iraqis with the help of the US forces". State Dept: "Please god, let this end as a law-enforcement operation in Basra and not as a battle to the death with the Sadrists nation-wide, leading to attacks on the Green Zone and so forth". Iraqi Defense Dept: "Please god, we did not envisage what is happening; we had no idea this might turn into anything other than a mopping-up operation."
...
(much more...)

http://tinyurl.com/2ddacd

US gave $300m arms contract to 22-year-old with criminal record

* Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington
* The UK Guardian
* Friday March 28 2008

The Pentagon entrusted a 22-year-old previously arrested for domestic violence and having a forged driving licence to be the main supplier of ammunition to Afghan forces at the height of the battle against the Taliban, it was reported yesterday.

AEY, essentially a one-man operation based in an unmarked office in Miami Beach, Florida, was awarded a contract worth $300m (£150m) to supply the Afghan army and police in January last year. But as the New York Times reported in a lengthy investigation, AEY's president, Efraim Diversoli, 22, supplied stock that was 40 years old and rotting packing material.

"Much of the ammunition comes from the ageing stockpiles of the old communist bloc, including stockpiles that the state department and Nato have determined to be unreliable and obsolete, and have spent millions of dollars to have destroyed," the paper said.

The report on AEY was the latest instance of private firms securing lucrative defence contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan under the Bush administration's policy of privatising growing aspects of the military.

"Operations like this pop up like mushrooms after the rain," said Milton Bearden, a former CIA official who in the 1980s was in charge of arming Afghan rebel groups fighting the former Soviet Union.

"For the most part the US or coalition forces will stick with the Warsaw Pact weapons and munitions systems that were already being used by the Afghans or the Iraqis. There becomes an insatiable demand for certain munitions. Suppliers go all over the world sweeping out warehouses and you end up with boxes of junk and unstable gear if you are not careful."

The army suspended AEY from future contracts during the course of the investigation - although it continues to fill existing orders. The New York Times said Diversoli was unaware of the action, although he was to be notified yesterday.

Until then, however, Diversoli appears to have had a lucrative run. He told the newspaper his firm had won contracts worth at least $200m each year since 2004. AEY also supplied weapons to US agencies, and rifles to Iraqi forces.

In 2006, AEY was among 10 firms bidding on a contract to supply 52 kinds of ammunition for the Afghan security forces. But while his business was taking off, Diversoli was accused of violent behaviour involving two girlfriends and the parking attendant at his apartment building. In December 2006, Diversoli was charged with battery after beating up the parking attendant, according to the newspaper. Police recovered a forged driving licence from Diversoli's flat which led to a separate charge. He entered a programme for first time offenders to avoid trial.

AEY's contract was approved weeks later in January 2007, and Diversoli began scouring the globe for suppliers. Diversoli turned to Albania, which had large weapons dumps. However, the New York Times reported that the firm ended up paying for Kalashnikov rounds that were so obsolete that the US and Nato funded programmes to see them safely destroyed.

AEY also purchased 9 million cartridges from a Czech citizen who had been linked to illegal arms trafficking to Congo.

Link to The Sunday Times Article

From The Sunday Times
March 30, 2008
Hala Jaber, Ali Rifat and Abu Razzak in Basra

The future of Iraq could be decided by the power struggle raging in the country’s second city

* * * * * *

Ragtag members of the Mahdi Army, a heavily armed militia loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shi’ite cleric with close links to Iran, vowed to fight to the death to prevent Maliki from imposing government control on the southern port at the heart of Iraq’s potentially hugely profitable oil industry.

“We have received a shipment of Strela antiaircraft rockets,” Abu Sajad boasted to a Sunday Times reporter.

“We intend to use them to prove to the world that the Mahdi Army will not allow Basra to be turned into a second Falluja [the former centre of anticoalition resistance that was crushed by US-led assaults].”

Maliki says Sadrist foes "worse than al Qaeda"

AP Article - Sadr Returns Fire at Maliki, U.S.:

The radical Shiite cleric also said the impact of the U.S. presence on Iraq was more negative than that of Saddam Hussein's Baath party, ousted in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

Al-Sadr alleged that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a fellow Shiite, was as "distant" from the people of Iraq as Saddam's Sunni-led regime. The government, he said, was "looking after its own interests, not those of the people."

In Iraq, U.S. caught in middle of Shiite rivalry

* * * * * *

Fueling the Sadrists' concerns about Basra is the fact that some of Maliki's trusted security advisors are from the Badr camp. The head of the Basra security command, Gen. Mohan Freiji, is also considered loosely affiliated with the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, or SIIC, said a Western advisor at the Defense Ministry.

The offensive in Basra so far has targeted only Sadrist neighborhoods and has avoided going after the Al Fadila al Islamiya party of Basra Gov. Mohammed Waeli or the Badr Organization, both of which have elements that have contributed to the problems in the port city.

"How could the Sadrists interpret U.S. air support of the Basra operation other than as the manifestation of a U.S.- SIIC alliance?" asked Joost Hiltermann, a Middle East expert with the International Crisis Group think tank.

British officers have noted that the Fadila party is suspected of involvement in oil smuggling, one of the major security concerns in Basra. The Badr Organization has also been implicated in racketeering at ports and controlling the city's police intelligence service, according to the International Crisis Group. Without tackling Fadila and Badr's lawless elements, Basra's problems are likely to continue.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080330/wl_nm/iraq_dc

NAJAF, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called on his followers on Sunday to stop battling government forces after a week of fighting in Iraq's south and the capital threatened to spiral out of control.

The government immediately welcomed Sadr's statement, saying it would help the authorities impose security in Iraq.

* * * * *

"Because of the religious responsibility, and to stop Iraqi blood being shed ... we call for an end to armed appearances in Basra and all other provinces," Sadr said in a statement given to journalists by his aides in the holy Shi'ite city of Najaf.

"Anyone carrying a weapon and targeting government institutions will not be one of us," the statement said.

* * * * * *

But a top aide to Sadr, Hazem al-Araji, said Mehdi Army fighters would not hand over their guns. He also said that Sadr's followers had received a guarantee from the government that it would end "random arrests" of Sadr followers.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/7423500

By LOUISE NORDSTROM
Associated Press Writer

SOLLENTUNA, Sweden (AP) - The fear of being sent back to Baghdad has taken its toll on Mustafa Aziz Alwi.

He says he cannot sleep and has lost about 20 pounds since his claim for asylum in Sweden was rejected in January.

``They told me it's because it's calmer in Iraq now, that I can go back and be happy. But they don't know that it's death there,'' said Aziz Alwi, 25, wiping away tears in an interview at his cousin's apartment in the Stockholm suburb of Sollentuna.

Had his case been decided a year earlier, he would probably already hold a residence permit. Sweden has given shelter to about 100,000 Iraqis, 40,000 of them since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. That's far more than any other Western country including the U.S., which admitted just over 1,600 Iraqi refugees in the 2007 fiscal year, nearly 400 short of the annual goal of 2,000, and a big reduction from an initial target of 7,000.

But Sweden has gradually tightened its asylum rules, worried that its generous welfare system can't cope.

Link to AP Article

March 30, 2008
The Associated Press

BAGHDAD - Iraqi authorities say a citywide curfew aimed at stopping Shiite militia violence will be lifted on Monday morning.

The office of Baghdad's chief military spokesman says the round-the-clock curfew will end at 6 a.m. but a vehicle ban will stay in place in three Shiite militia strongholds in the capital.

Those neighbourhoods are Sadr City, Kazimiyah and Shula.

Link to CS Monitor Article

Sadr reins in Shiite militiamen, sends mixed signals

Battles continued to rage Sunday between the radical cleric's Mahdi Army and Iraqi and US forces.

By Sam Dagher | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
from the March 31, 2008 edition

* * * * * *

It was too early to tell whether the statement, read in the holy city of Najaf, would end fighting in the south or in the capital. But contrary to initial reports, the US and Iraqi government campaign against the Mahdi Army, say officials and analysts, is a carefully coordinated effort by the US and Sadr's Shiite rivals to deal a decisive blow to the outspoken cleric.

It's the latest episode in a strategy that has been under way for some time now to draw out the militia's hard-core elements, thus dividing it into "good" and "bad," according to the deputy chief of staff of Iraq's armed forces, a secular Shiite who has strong ties to US military commanders, including Gen. David Petraeus.

"There is the good, bad, and ugly, but the heads are linked. Now we are rooting out the bad guys," says Gen. Naseer al-Abadi.

Link to AP Article

Remains ID'd as missing Ohio soldier's

By TERRY KINNEY, Associated Press Writer

BATAVIA, Ohio - The father of a soldier listed as missing-captured in Iraq since 2004 said Sunday that the military had informed him that his son's remains had been found.

Keith Maupin said an Army general told him DNA testing had identified the remains of his son, Sgt. Keith Matthew Maupin, or "Matt" as he was commonly known. He said the Army didn't say how or where in Iraq his son's remains were discovered, only that officials found a shirt similar to the one his son was wearing at the time of his disappearance.

"My heart sinks, but I know they can't hurt him anymore," Maupin said, speaking in the soldier's hometown near suburban Cincinnati.

The Army was continuing its investigation, he said.

Lt. Lee Packnett, an Army public affairs officer in Washington, confirmed that the Maupins were notified Sunday that their son's remains had been identified. Packnett said an official statement about the identification would be released Monday.

Matt Maupin was a 20-year-old private first class when he was captured April 9, 2004, after his fuel convoy, part of the 724th Transportation Company, was ambushed west of Baghdad.

A week later, the Arab television network Al-Jazeera aired a videotape showing Maupin sitting on the floor surrounded by five masked men holding automatic rifles.

via cursor.org

NPRcheck - Let's take a look at NPR's coverage of the al-Maliki government's attempts to crush the rival Mehdi army starting in Basra (and how the the gentle giant of the US has been blindly and helplessly pulled into this defining moment).

On Friday's Morning Edition:

* Dina Temple-Raston says to Renee Montagne, "technically what he's [al-Maliki] taking on, and this is what the American line has been too, is they're taking on rogue elements of that army, because technically there's a cease fire...so what they're saying here is that the fighting is just among these rogue elements who were trained in Iran and aren't listening to Muqtada al-Sadr."

Trained in Iran? Says who? Where's a shred of evidence? Has Temple-Raston ever heard of Iran and Daawa (al-Maliki's party), SCIRI, and Badr Corps? Has anyone at NPR?

On the hourly reports on Friday afternoon:

* (Early afternoon, Jack Spear): "the US has been increasingly sucked in" to the fighting.
* (Later in the evening) Jack Spear says, "the Iraqi Government offensive...is stalled...but as NPR's Anne Garrels reports, the US may now have to assure its success." (Garrels comes on) "...but now that the Iraqi forces have started the offensive US officials can not afford to let them fail." MORE

_{1."George Washington did not cross the Delaware for Capitalism," -Shmuley Boteach.
2.The Dems haven't punished the GOP enough, so you're going to reward the Republicans?}

Residents Embittered by Politicians' Choices

BAGHDAD, March 30 -- The mortar shells sailed across the sky Sunday evening and ripped through the corrugated tin roof of the barbershop. They shattered brick walls, mangled beams and knocked over leather chairs. Smoke, debris and glass covered the street outside.

There was blood on Abu Ghadeer's shirt. He had pulled out of the wreckage a boy who had come for a haircut but instead received a body full of shrapnel. Twenty minutes later, after an ambulance had taken the boy away, Abu Ghadeer struggled to understand.

"A week ago, life was good," he said. "Now, nobody knows what will happen."

For Iraqis, widespread clashes this past week have exposed their nation's brittleness. After months of relative calm and declining violence, many people were locking themselves inside their homes and shops again as Shiite gunmen battled U.S. and Iraqi forces. Curfews restricted their movement, yet they were still unable to escape the mortar and rocket fire.

In Baghdad's Karrada neighborhood Sunday, the despair was palpable. In alleyways and storefronts, people spoke about their frustration and dread, and about the misguided politics they blamed for running Iraq into the ground. Many said they were worried not about sectarian conflict but about war erupting right in their community.
More

Link to AFP Article

At least 461 killed in Iraq clashes: AFP tally

BAGHDAD (AFP) - At least 461 people were killed in week-long clashes between Shiite militants and security forces in Iraq, according to an AFP tally based on reports by security officials.

* * * * * *

More than 1,100 people were wounded in Basra and Baghdad.

Interior ministry spokesman Major General Abdul Karim Khalaf said at least 215 people were killed in Basra and another 600 wounded since hostilities began.

Iraqi health and security officials said the clashes have left 140 people dead in Baghdad, most in Sadr City, the bastion of Sadr's Mahdi Army militia.More than 500 people were wounded in the sprawling neighbourhood of some two million people.

Clashes were also reported in the central holy city of Karbala with at least 12 "criminals" killed, local police said.

The southern city of Nasiriyah also saw fierce battles with local medics reporting at least 36 killed.

Police in the central city of Kut said around 50 people had been killed there since Tuesday.

Eight people were also killed in Babel province south of the capital, Iraqi and US officials said.

______________________________________________________________________

Link to LA Times 'Fog of War' Blog/Article

This morning brought fresh attacks on the Green Zone, the Baghdad diplomatic enclave that was pounded throughout the fighting by missiles fired from Mahdi Army strongholds in east Baghdad. That raised questions about the effectiveness of Sadr's call for calm. Nobody was reported killed in the latest Green Zone strikes, but Iraq's Interior Ministry gave a grim accounting from the previous week of battles:

605 people dead, including 325 in Basra and 140 in Baghdad.

Link to Spiegel Article

By Bernhard Zand

Iraq had been enjoying a period of relative peace. But the spate of violence in Basra last week showed that dangerous divisions remain in the war-torn country. And everyone has their eye on the same oil-rich prize.

The images are so terrible that no one has dared publish them. They depict the bodies of 15 women, old and young, veiled and unveiled, bullet-riddled and severely disfigured. One is already half decomposed. A group of young boys in track pants stands behind the body. They found it on the side of the road, somewhere in Basra.

Human rights activist Mohammed Tariq al-Darraji sent the photographs of the dead women to almost 300 Iraq correspondents, together with a note in broken English practically begging for their interest. The photos, the note read, depicted "gruesome crimes" committed by "criminal militias." According to al-Darraji, a total of 40 women have been tortured, shot and beheaded in Basra in recent months, some for wearing nail polish and others for going out in public without a headscarf. "We ask the reporters of the United Nations," the note continued, "when you see these pictures, why do you not do your duty?"

That was two weeks ago, and no one took up his story. And it is indicative of the fate often met by stories from Basra. Baghdad is the yardstick for measuring success or disaster in Iraq, not this run-down port city on the Gulf. The structure of postwar Iraq reflects a bitter continuation of policies begun 20 years ago under former dictator Saddam Hussein: The systematic neglect of the southern province, which, based on its oil wealth, could easily hold its own with booming emirates like Kuwait and Abu Dhabi, but is in fact a cesspool.

Link to AP Article

By ROBERT BURNS, AP Military Writer

COPENHAGEN, Denmark - The flare-up in violence in Shiite areas of southern Iraq and Baghdad has yet to alter U.S. plans to withdraw more combat forces this spring, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Monday.

Gates, speaking to reporters traveling with him from Brussels, Belgium, to the Danish capital, offered a mildly upbeat assessment of the Iraqi government's military intervention in the southern Iraqi city of Basra.

He said Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is to be commended for taking the initiative in Basra, and he described the Iraqi security forces as having performed reasonably well, with American support.

"Based on what I've seen, the limited reporting I've seen ... they seem to have done a pretty good job," Gates said without mentioning that al-Maliki had promised a "decisive and final battle" for control of the southern oil capital of Basra when he ordered a military intervention there a week ago.

We'll be withdrawing troops because the conditions on the ground dictate our troop levels.... Unless we sort of promised to withdraw them, and it would be politically damaging not to. Plus, we're running out troops as our stop-loss guys start qualifying for Social Security.

Eric Hall, an Iraq war veteran, disappeared last month after having a flashback...

Unsurprising but nonetheless sad NYT article
from over the weekend

We can only demand/hope that someday the chickens
come home to roost at the doors of the officials
responsible for this war.

_{1."George Washington did not cross the Delaware for Capitalism," -Shmuley Boteach.
2.The Dems haven't punished the GOP enough, so you're going to reward the Republicans?}

Link to CS Monitor Article

Anger follows the fight with Sadr's militia

Residents of Sadr City, Moqtada al-Sadr's Baghdad stronghold, said they felt 'caught in the middle' of the battle between Sadr's Mahdi Army and US and Iraqi forces.

By Sam Dagher | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
from the April 1, 2008 edition

* * * * * *

On Monday, one day after the Shiite cleric's call for a truce following the battle that killed hundreds of people and wounded scores of others, several conclusions are clear.

Mr. Sadr has demonstrated his power, despite the blows dealt to his movement over the past few years. The government spokesman, Ali al-Dabbagh, thanked him profusely on Monday for his decision, but vowed that the fight would continue in Basra, where militiamen have now largely melted away from the streets, but remain very much in control of their strongholds.

"It's the same old ending," says Juliana Dawood, a Basra resident, referring to previous battles with Sadr's Mahdi Army in 2004 that have finished with similar truces.

In August 2004, US and Iraqi forces battled Sadr's militias in Najaf, Iraq. It was billed as a crucial test of then-Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's ability to extend authority over a key city in Iraq that was controlled by armed militias. The Najaf showdown ended in much the same way this one did: a Sadr negotiated truce.

But this time, analysts say, the widespread instances of surrender among the Iraqi forces and the seizure of their equipment and vehicles by the Mahdi Army shows that despite all the funding and training from the US, Iraq's soldiers remain greatly swayed by their sectarian and party loyalties and are incapable of standing up in a fight without US backing.

The fighting has also firmly wedged the US in an intra-Shiite struggle that has been bubbling for some time and will probably only intensify. The battle has also spawned more popular anger and frustration, especially in places like eastern Baghdad, toward both US forces and Mr. Maliki's government, which already had been teetering on the verge of collapse.

Link to The Times Online Article

Nouri al-Maliki humiliated as gamble to crush Shia militias fail

Apri1, 2008
James Hider in Sadr City

* * * * * *

Overnight al-Mahdi Army has melted back into the population in Baghdad and Basra after its leader, the antiAmerican cleric Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr, ordered it to stop fighting government forces. In Sadr City and other militia strongholds they do not need to be seen. Their presence is felt everywhere.

Walking across the lines separating the US and government forces from the barbed wire sealing off Sadr City, an Iraqi army major muttered: “You’re going in without guards? You’ll be kidnapped for sure.” The Sadr Office had, however, arranged an escort for visiting journalists: a police car with three officers. “Don’t worry,” the driver reassured his passengers. “We know where all the IEDs are.”

The police in areas controlled by al-Mahdi Army work closely with the militia and would never dream of interfering in its fights with the Government that pays their salaries.

At the Sadr Office in the centre of the massive slum in northeast Baghdad, home to 2.5 million impoverished Shias, the receptionists greeted visitors with sweets to mark their victory over Nouri al-Maliki, the increasingly isolated Iraqi

Prime Minister, who directed the assault on Shia rogue militias in Basra, the lawless southern oil city. “This is for victory over Maliki,” one said with a grin. “The fighting ended on our terms.”

Certainly Mr al-Maliki’s huge gamble appeared to have failed yesterday. Having vowed to crush Shia militias with a 30,000-strong force in Basra, he ended up suing for peace with the people he had described as “worse than al-Qaeda”. Al-Mahdi Army kept its weapons and turf.

* * * * * *

Hundreds of people died in Mr al-Maliki’s blitz to end the reign of militias in the south but after a week his army has failed to defeat them and his political capital has crashed through the floor. Having vowed to fight the militias to the end, he had to suffer the humiliation of talking peace with Hojatoleslam al-Sadr at his home in the Iranian city of Qom before the militia chief showed his true power and ended the war within hours.

Link to AP Article

Truce Calms Iraq, Weakens Prime Minister

By ROBERT H. REID – 4 hours ago

* * * * * *

The peace deal between al-Sadr and Iraqi government forces — said to have been brokered in Iran — calmed the violence but left the cleric's Mahdi Army intact and Iraq's U.S.-backed prime minister politically battered and humbled within his own Shiite power base.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had promised to crush the militias that have effectively ruled Basra for nearly three years. The U.S. military launched air strikes in the city to back the Iraqi effort.

But the ferocious response by the Mahdi Army, including rocket fire on the U.S.-controlled Green Zone and attacks throughout the Shiite south, caught the government by surprise and sent officials scrambling for a way out of the crisis.

The confrontation enabled al-Sadr to show that he remains a powerful force capable of challenging the Iraqi government, the Americans and mainstream Shiite parties that have sought for years to marginalize him. And the outcome cast doubt on President Bush's assessment that the Basra battle was "a defining moment" in the history "of a free Iraq."

Posted at the Missing Links blog

Monday, March 31, 2008
Report: US Embassy moving elsewhere. Sunni group claims GreenZone attacks
The Qatari paper AlArab had this on its front page this morning:

A military source lifted the veil on information that the American ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker has decided to change the location of the American Embassy [which is now] in the Green Zone in Baghdad, because it has been suject to a series of rocket attacks in recent days, that have led to the killing and injuring of a number of American employees.

General Faisal AlAsafi, commander of a Green Zone entrance-protection unit, told AlArab that American Ambassador Ryan Crocker gave the order Saturday night to more the location of the Baghdad Embassy, temporarily, from the Green Zone to an alternate location, which he didn't specify. He said a crew composed of dozens of officials and diplomats moved the contents of the embassy to another location toward the west[ern part of] Baghdad, fearing additional rocket attacks on the Green Zone, insisting that the move is a temporary one, with the aim of the success of the joint forces in stopping the rocket attacks on the Green Zone, and pointing out that the British and Australian embassies might take the same decision in the coming hours.

And Asafi said many parliamentarians and ministers have emptied their premises in the Green Zone following a series of attacks that were accurate and precise in targeting the offices of foreign embassies and the government of Iraq, and the homes of many of ministers and parliamentarians.

The AlArab reporter notes that American officials have barred his paper and others from bringing any video equipment into the Green Zone since the attacks started, and have barred the taking of any pictures of the damage.

The AlArab reporter still assumes that all the attacks have been by the Mehdi Army. But Roads to Iraq points out that there has now been a published claim of responsibility by the Sunni resistance faction Jaish al-Muslimin, part of the Jihad and Change Front, for all of the attacks on the Green Zone since Saturday March 29 and including those of this morning (Monday March 31).

Iraqi lawmakers said that Suleimani had participated in weekend meetings in the Iranian holy city of Qom that resulted in Sadr ordering his followers to draw back after nearly a week of clashes with government troops.

By Warren P. Strobel and Leila Fadel | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The Iranian general who helped broker an end to nearly a week of fighting between Iraqi government forces and Shiite Muslim militiamen in southern Iraq is an unlikely peacemaker.

Brig. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, who helped U.S.-backed Iraqi leaders negotiate a deal with radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr to stop the fighting in Iraq's largely Shiite south, is named on U.S. Treasury Department and U.N. Security Council watch lists for alleged involvement in terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear and missile technology.

His role as peacemaker, which McClatchy first reported Sunday, underscores Iran's entrenched political power and its alliances in Iraq, according to analysts.

"The Iranians are into a lot of things, and have a lot of influence," said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA analyst who's now at the National Defense University in Washington.

Suleimani, about whom little is known publicly, commands the elite Quds (Jerusalem) force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. U.S. officials allege that the force is responsible for sending sophisticated roadside bombs, known as explosively formed projectiles, and other weaponry that Iran's Shiite allies in Iraq sometimes have used to kill U.S. troops. ...

Cartoon found at Regime Change Iran. On every Neocon's must read list. -ww

"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

Out of hiding: The engineer whose 'evidence' led to war in Iraq

By Anne Penketh, Diplomatic Editor
Wednesday, 26 March 2008

Independent - An Iraqi engineer who provided the information that became one of the key planks in the Bush administration's case justifying the invasion of Iraq has been tracked down by undercover reporters to a drab residential block in southern Germany.

Rafid Ahmed Alwan, code-named Curveball (a baseball term for deception), has been in hiding since the invasion five years ago, and lives under an assumed name. He was questioned by German intelligence in the late 1990s when seeking asylum in Germany and told them that he had witnessed a biological weapons programme in Iraq. His "evidence" was made public in a compelling speech to the UN security council by US secretary of state, Colin Powell on 5 February 2003, when he said that Iraq possessed stockpiles of biological weapons that threatened the world and the mobile weapons laboratories to produce them.

Although German intelligence officials had warned the CIA that Curveball's claims were unreliable, and UN inspectors had failed to corroborate them, the Bush administration promoted the existence of such mobile labs for months after the invasion.

Now Curveball denies having made the claims in the first place. The BBC 2 programme Newsnight broadcast last night secretly filmed footage of the discredited agent who was approached by Der Spiegel magazine in his German hideout where he declined to give a formal interview. His face was blanked out in the footage in which a reporter asked him on his doorstep whether he had ever spoken about Iraq's biological weapons. Curveball replied "No." ...

"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

'It Becomes Almost Impossible To Find A Purpose In What We Do.'
By Spencer Ackerman 03/31/2008 02:24PM

A friend of a friend just received the following email from a junior officer serving in Iraq. It makes for especially powerful reading in the wake of the Second Sadrist Intifada. Reprinted with permission. ...

"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

The Smart Way Out of a Foolish War

By Zbigniew Brzezinski
Sunday, March 30, 2008; B03

WAPO - Both Democratic presidential candidates agree that the United States should end its combat mission in Iraq within 12 to 16 months of their possible inauguration. The Republican candidate has spoken of continuing the war, even for a hundred years, until "victory." The core issue of this campaign is thus a basic disagreement over the merits of the war and the benefits and costs of continuing it.

The case for U.S. disengagement from combat is compelling in its own right. But it must be matched by a comprehensive political and diplomatic effort to mitigate the destabilizing regional consequences of a war that the outgoing Bush administration started deliberately, justified demagogically and waged badly. (I write, of course, as a Democrat; while I prefer Sen. Barack Obama, I speak here for myself.)

The contrast between the Democratic argument for ending the war and the Republican argument for continuing is sharp and dramatic. The case for terminating the war is based on its prohibitive and tangible costs, while the case for "staying the course" draws heavily on shadowy fears of the unknown and relies on worst-case scenarios. President Bush's and Sen. John McCain's forecasts of regional catastrophe are quite reminiscent of the predictions of "falling dominoes" that were used to justify continued U.S. involvement in Vietnam. Neither has provided any real evidence that ending the war would mean disaster, but their fear-mongering makes prolonging it easier.

"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

Link to Times Article

April 1, 2008

Nouri al-Maliki asks militants to return 50 cars and armoured vehicles

James Hider in Baghdad

Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s increasingly isolated Prime Minister, claimed yesterday his campaign to stamp out illegal armed groups in Basra had been a “success” despite being forced to sue for peace with al-Mahdi Army militia who fought his men to a standstill.

The Prime Minister, whose future is looking uncertain after he staked his reputation on the stalled military offensive, also asked gunmen to return the 50 government cars and armoured vehicles they captured from his forces during a week of fighting that left close to 500 people dead.

Link to LA Times Article

By Tina Susman, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
8:31 AM PDT, April 1, 2008

BAGHDAD -- Loyalists of Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr today accused government forces of breaching a cease-fire with continued raids in the southern city of Basra and threatened a "return to conflict."

* * * * *

Basra remained tense, though, and a statement released today by the Sadr Movement office there said neighborhoods known as Sadr strongholds continued to be "subjected to an aggressive campaign of raids, detentions and destruction." It said Iraqi security forces and their supporters, a reference to U.S. and British troops, had destroyed four houses in Jubeila, in central Basra, and detained "tens of families."

* * * * *

In Basra today, residents clearly were fearful of venturing too far from home, even though the Mahdi Army fighters who had ruled the streets for days had withdrawn. Schools and city offices were closed, and there was little vehicle or pedestrian movement. Fewer stores were open today than Monday, a reflection of people's distrust in the situation.

When the quagmire gets so obvious that even Salt Lake City's largest newspaper calls for the U.S. to get out of Iraq, one is almost forced to agree with George Bush that the battle for Basra may have been the defining moment of the Iraq war. At least for those still actually paying attention to Iraq:

Link to Salt Lake City Tribune Editorial

Battle of Basra: Stalemate shows hopelessness of U.S. position

Tribune Editorial
Article Last Updated: 04/01/2008 07:43:30 PM MDT

The battle of Basra did not change who controls the second-largest city in Iraq. The U.S.-backed government tried to dislodge the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr, and it failed.

But the battle did settle one thing. It should cement in the minds of the American people that U.S. forces are hopelessly trapped in a multi-faceted civil war that is nowhere close to an end.

Not only are the Shiites fighting al-Qaida and the Sunni insurgency, but the Shiites are fighting each other, as they did in Basra. The dominant parties in the government of Iraq, including the followers of al-Sadr, are all part of Iraq's Shiite religious majority. (John McCain, please take note.)

Five-plus years into this war, despite the propaganda from the White House about the success of the U.S. surge, there is no end to the chaos in sight. Nor is there any real prospect on the horizon that anything the United States can do will stanch the killing. It is past time for the United States to face up to that reality and get out.

Warren P. Strobel and Leila Fadel | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The Iranian general who helped broker an end to nearly a week of fighting between Iraqi government forces and Shiite Muslim militiamen in southern Iraq is an unlikely peacemaker.

Brig. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, who helped U.S.-backed Iraqi leaders negotiate a deal with radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr to stop the fighting in Iraq's largely Shiite south, is named on U.S. Treasury Department and U.N. Security Council watch lists for alleged involvement in terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear and missile technology.

His role as peacemaker, which McClatchy first reported Sunday, underscores Iran's entrenched political power and its alliances in Iraq, according to analysts.

"The Iranians are into a lot of things, and have a lot of influence," said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA analyst who's now at the National Defense University in Washington.

Suleimani, about whom little is known publicly, commands the elite Quds (Jerusalem) force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. U.S. officials allege that the force is responsible for sending sophisticated roadside bombs, known as explosively formed projectiles, and other weaponry that Iran's Shiite allies in Iraq sometimes have used to kill U.S. troops.

Suleimani's name appears on a U.S. Treasury Department list of individuals and organizations with whom Americans are barred from doing business.

He's also mentioned in a March 2007 U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at halting Iran's uranium enrichment program. His name appears in an annex of Iranian individuals whose financial assets U.N. members are required to freeze.

Iraqi lawmakers said that Suleimani had participated in weekend meetings in the Iranian holy city of Qom that resulted in Sadr ordering his followers to draw back after nearly a week of clashes with government troops.

While Iran flexed its political and diplomatic muscles, the United States at times appeared to be a bystander in the crisis. The United States has more than 140,000 troops in Iraq, but little presence or influence in the south and the port city of Basra.

"Iran showed that they could mediate this cease-fire while the U.S. has shown very little influence," said Joost Hiltermann, the deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the private International Crisis Group. "The United States is eager to accuse Iran of playing a damaging role in Iraq, but the bottom line is that Iran and the United States have a lot of things in common."

State Department officials in Baghdad and Washington said they had no independent information about the meetings in Iran.

"We have no comment on any specific part Iran might have played in this instance, but our position in general on Iran's unhelpful role in supporting violent groups in Iraq has been very clear," U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Mirembe Nantongo said in an e-mail.

A White House spokeswoman declined to comment, referring questions to the State Department and the U.S. military.

Suleimani is the Iranian official who deals with Iraqi affairs. Iraqi lawmakers said that he was the man they needed to go to when it came to dealing with Sadr's Mahdi Army militia and Iranian funding of Shiite militias.

"Qassem al Suleimani is the person in charge of the Iraqi issue," said an Iraqi official who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject. "He's in charge of supporting the militias and training them. . . . The Iranians have a huge influence on the Mahdi Army, they're harboring Muqtada . . . they are like a tool in their hands."

While the State Department cautiously welcomed Sadr's call to his followers Sunday to avoid armed clashes, it was far from clear that the outcome of the crisis furthered U.S. goals in Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki launched an offensive a week ago to curb the power of Shiite militias and gangs in Basra, many of whom are allied with Shiite parties that are his political opponents.

But the offensive, which President Bush hailed Friday as "a defining moment in the history of a free Iraq," appeared to fall far short of its goals.

"There's no way the government can muster the strength now to take on the militias," said Wayne White, a former top Iraq analyst in the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. "We're going to have to learn to live with them."

There were reports that some forces loyal to Maliki refused to fight Sadr's Mahdi Army or, in a few cases, switched sides.

However, a State Department official said that Iraqi government forces "performed OK. . . . They get a `gentleman's C' for their performance." He requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak on the record.

Several analysts expressed surprise that Iran would permit a semi-public role for the Quds force, given its past denials of meddling in Iraq.

It was "rather cheeky on the part of the Iranians," White said. "They essentially made clear that the Quds force has a role in Iraq."

(Fadel reported from Baghdad.)

U.N. Security Council Resolution 1747: http://www.cfr.org/publication/12987

U.S. Treasury Department's Specially Designated Nationals List: http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/enforcement/ofac/sdn

Link to WaPo Article

Iraq's Assault On Militias Drew Americans In

By Sudarsan Raghavan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, April 2, 2008; Page A12

BAGHDAD, April 1 -- Attacks against U.S. troops and Iraqi security forces soared across Baghdad in the last week of March to the highest levels since the deployment of additional U.S. troops here reached full strength last June, according to U.S. military data and analysis.

The sharp spike in attacks, in response to an ill-prepared Iraqi government offensive in the southern city of Basra last week, underscores how the U.S. military's hard-won security gains in Iraq remain fragile and how easily those gains can be erased.

* * * * * * *

Over the week that began March 25, when the offensive began in Basra, there were 728 attacks against U.S. coalition forces, Iraqi security forces and civilians across Iraq, according to U.S. military data obtained by The Washington Post. Of these, 430 -- or almost 60 percent of the attacks -- occurred in Baghdad, the major focus of last year's buildup of 30,000 additional U.S. troops. The forces have begun to withdraw, and the rest are to be gone by the end of July.

In comparison, the average weekly attack rate in Baghdad last June was 326 attacks, according to U.S. military statistics.

By Monday, a day after Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr ordered his Mahdi Army militiamen to lay down their arms, the attacks quickly subsided close to levels seen before the government offensive. On March 23 and 24, the two days before the offensive began, there were, respectively, 42 and 38 attacks across Iraq. On each of those days, there were only 14 attacks in Baghdad. Over the next few days, attacks in the capital spiked to as many as six times that number.

The rapid containment of the fighting suggests that the "surge" of U.S. forces is but one factor in bringing down violence in Iraq and that in Shiite areas, a cease-fire imposed by Sadr on his militiamen last August may be more significant.

By Rick Maze - army Times Staff writer
Posted : Tuesday Apr 1, 2008 17:30:18 EDT

The Defense Department has announced a new get-tough policy with colleges and universities that interfere with the work of military recruiters and Reserve Officer Training Corps programs.

Under rules that will take effect April 28, defense officials said they want the exact same access to student directories that is provided to all other prospective employers.

Students can opt out of having their information turned over to the military only if they opt out of having their information provided to all other recruiters, but schools cannot have policies that exclude only the military, defense officials said in a March 28 notice of the new policy in the Federal Register.

The Defense Department “will honor only those student ‘opt-outs’ from the disclosure of directory information that are even-handedly applied to all prospective employers seeking information for recruiting purposes,” the notice says.

Directories are an important recruiting tool because they include the names, birthdates, phone numbers and academic pursuits of college students that can be used to identify people with knowledge and interests that are particularly useful to the military.

The new policy also no longer lets schools ban military recruiters from working on campuses solely because a school determines that no students have expressed interest in joining the military. If other employers are invited, the military has to have the same access.

Federal funding can be cut off if colleges and universities do not give recruiters and ROTC programs campus access. While student financial assistance is not at risk, other federal aid, especially research funding, can disappear if a school does not cooperate.

The Pentagon can declare colleges or universities anti-ROTC if they prohibit or prevent a Senior ROTC program from being established, maintained or efficiently operated.

The new policy is, in part, the result of a 2006 U.S. Supreme Court decision that upheld the federal government’s ability to use funding as a means of forcing equal access for military recruiters and ROTC units on campuses.

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Link to Financial Times Article

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington and Alex Barker and Stephen Fidler in London

Published: April 2 2008 00:31 | Last updated: April 2 2008 03:37

When British troops pulled out of Basra last year, UK military officials maintained that Iraqi security forces could take over and that the move would also force rival Shia factions to reach a political deal.

Critics now point to the Iraqi government’s military operation in Basra last week as evidence that the British move was premature.

* * * * * * *

British officials argued that Basra was an “Iraqi problem” that could be solved only by Iraq’s security forces. While US commanders understood the political pressures on the new government of Gordon Brown, some said Britain was “cutting and running” because it had “lost” Basra.

Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, praised the UK contribution in Afghanistan and Iraq but said he “did not think it was a good idea” that the British troops had handed over security in Basra.

One UK military official on Tuesday said the critics misunderstood the nature of the conflict in Basra. He insisted that only the Iraqis could find a solution to the problem, which he said was not sectarian violence, like in Baghdad, but rival Shia groups “grappling” for power.

While British officials say their strategy was to let the Iraqis work out the solution, some observers say they did not provide the conditions that allowed that to happen.

______________________________________________________________________

In other news, Lions and Hyenas are not getting along in Africa. Authorities blame the African Bushmen, who "have not provided the conditions that allow that getting along stuff to happen."

A senior American Diplomat (who asked not to be identified as he is not authorized to speak to the press) stated: "Those Bushmen didn't even learn the words to "Kumbaya", much less follow our recommendation of singing it around campfires in the vicinity of the lions and hyenas. We are profoundly disappointed that the Bushmen did not undertake this important step to ensure lion-hyena political harmony."

..... The Taliban's demand is the first challenge to the new cabinet to make an urgent choice between internal peace on the one side and resentment from Islamabad's "war on terror" allies on the other.

"This demand was given from Baitullah Mehsud's camp as soon as Islamabad proposed dialogue," a source affiliated with the Shura of Mujahideen in the North Waziristan tribal area told Asia Times Online. Mehsud is a leading Pakistani Taliban figure.

Gillani has vowed to eradicate militancy from the country through dialogue. He has also taken the bold step of moving to abolish discriminatory British colonial tribal laws. The Pashtun sub-nationalist Awami National Party, which forms part of a coalition government in North-West Frontier Province, has confirmed it has already started negotiations with the Taliban for peace in the tribal areas. The Taliban have welcomed the change of government in Pakistan.

And the Taliban have a potent bargaining chip in the form of their 250 captives, who include members of the Khasadar tribal force, the Frontier Corps and the Pakistani army seized during clashes between the Taliban and the Pakistani security forces over the past months.

All of the captives are in the custody of Mehsud's men. The hardline al-Qaeda-linked Mehsud, who is wanted in connection with the assassination of former premier Benazir Bhutto and other suicide attacks in Pakistan, is believed to no longer be in the tribal areas; his only possible hideout could be in Afghanistan, from where he is thought to be sending messages through his local contacts and tribal intermediaries.

A no-win situation?

The government in Islamabad is now in the unenviable position of having to decide between giving in to the Pakistani Taliban's demands and releasing some of its most-wanted detail
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.....The most significant reason is a shift in U.S. strategy. Building on counterinsurgency lessons from the British, French and American historical experiences, the U.S. military has increasingly focused its efforts on "soft power." This has translated into a greater focus on reconstruction and development projects, and less emphasis on combat operations.

At the core of this strategy is an assumption that local Afghans are the centre of gravity. Many are frustrated by the lack of development over the past several years, and unhappy with poor governance. To deal with these concerns, America's strategy includes three components.

The first involves interacting with tribal leaders to identify local needs and grievances, and to develop projects that help address them. In Khowst, for example, Colonel Martin Schweitzer and provincial governor Arsala Jamal have teamed up to build roads, hospitals and water and electricity projects.

The second component is hiring local Afghans to perform the work. A sizable chunk of the money comes from the Commander's Emergency Response Program funds, which enable U.S. military commanders to dole out aid quickly. Other aid comes from organizations such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the World Bank.

The third is executing the projects. In Paktia province, where I visited, U.S. forces operating under Combined Joint Task Force-82 have focused on building roads and revamping water and power infrastructure. In Kunar province, newly paved roads have sparked a boom in commerce in the Pech River Valley, and fighting there has largely stopped.

Overall, the results have been impressive, and U.S. efforts have contributed to a decline in violence in the east. But this progress could be undermined by a failure to address several looming challenges.

One is Pakistan. Every major insurgent group — such as the Taliban, Sirajuddin Haqqani's network, Hizb-i-Islami, and al-Qaeda — enjoys sanctuary in Pakistan. Some individuals within Pakistan's government, including within the Frontier Corps and Inter-Services Intelligence agency, also provide assistance to insurgent groups, especially the Taliban and Haqqani network.
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Apr 3, 2008

By M K Bhadrakumar
Asia Times Online

In the highly competitive world of international politics, nation states very rarely miss an opportunity to crow about success stories. The opportunity comes rare, mostly by default, and seldom enduring. By any standards of showmanship, therefore, Tehran has set a new benchmark of reticence.

By all accounts, Iran played a decisive role in hammering out the peace deal among the Shi'ite factions in Iraq. A bloody week of human killing on the Tigris River ended on Sunday. Details are sketchy, however, since they must come from non-Iranian sources. Tehran keeps silent about its role.

The deal was brokered after negotiations in the holy city of Qom in Iran involving the two Shi'ite factions - the Da'wa Party and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) - which have been locked in

conflict with Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army in southern Iraq. It appears that one of the most shadowy figures of the Iranian security establishment, General Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) personally mediated in the intra-Iraqi Shi'ite negotiations. Suleimani is in charge of the IRGC's operations abroad.

US military commanders routinely blame the Quds for all their woes in Iraq. The fact that the representatives of Da'wa and SIIC secretly traveled to Qom under the very nose of American and British intelligence and sought Quds mediation to broker a deal conveys a huge political message. Iran signals that security considerations rather than politics or religion prevailed.

But the politics of the deal are all too apparent. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who was camping in Basra and personally supervising the operations against the Mahdi Army, was not in the loop about the goings-on. As for US President George W Bush, he had just spoken praising Maliki for waging a "historic and decisive" battle against the Mahdi Army, which he said was "a defining moment" in the history of a "free Iraq". Both Maliki and Bush look very foolish.

But why isn't Tehran in any hurry to claim victory? After all, rubbishing the Bush presidency has been the stuff of Iranian rhetoric. Perhaps, Iranians had shut down over Nauroz new year festivities. They do take the joyful advent of spring very seriously. Or maybe, Suleimani's involvement makes the subject a no-go area for public discussion. Third, Iranians should know better than anyone that the intra-Shi'ite rivalries are far too deep-rooted to lend themselves to an amicable settlement in a day's negotiations.

The turf war in the Iraqi Shi'ite regions has several templates. Iraq's future as a unitary state; the parameters of acceptable federalism, if any; attitude towards the US; control of oil wealth; overvaulting political ambitions - all these are intertwined features of a complex matrix. Therefore, the fragility of the newfound peace is all too apparent. Tehran will be justified in estimating that it is prudent to wait and watch whether peace gains traction in the critical weeks ahead.

But the most important Iranian calculation would be not to provoke the Americans unnecessarily by rubbing in the true import of what happened. Tehran would be gratified that in any case it has made the point that it possesses awesome influence within Iraq. Anyone who knows today's anarchic Iraq would realize that triggering a new spiral of violence in that country may not require much ingenuity, muscle power or political clout.

But to be able to summarily cry halt to cascading violence, and to achieve that precisely in about 48 hours, well, that's an altogether impressive capability in political terms. In this case, the Iranians have managed it with felicitous ease, as if they were just turning off a well-lubricated tap. That requires great command over the killing fields of Iraq, the native warriors, and the sheer ability to calibrate the flow of events and micromanage attitudes.

Conceivably, Tehran would have decided with its accumulated centuries-old Persian wisdom that certain things in life are always best left unspoken, especially stunning successes. Besides, it is far more productive to leave Washington to contemplate over happenings and draw the unavoidable conclusion that if it musters the courage to make that existential choice, Iran can be an immensely valuable factor of stability for Iraq.

But it wasn't a matter of political symbolism, either. Tangible issues are involved. Questions of vital national interests. Clearly, Tehran had genuine concerns over the developing situation in southern Iraq close to its border. Tehran viewed the flare-up involving the Shi'ite factions with great disquiet. This was apparent from the speech by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, who led the prayer sermon in Tehran on Friday. He bemoaned, "Iraq is currently entangled in many problems." But Jannati explicitly didn't take sides between the warring factions.

On the one hand, he advised the Mahdi Army ("Iraqi popular armed forces") and Maliki ("Iraqi popular government") to hold talks. But he also advised the "popular armed forces present in Basra" (read Badr Organization, Da'wa, the smaller Fadhila party, etc.) to intervene with the "Iraqi popular government". Third, Jannati also called on Maliki to "heed the [popular] forces' views and solve problems eventually in a way that would be to the interest of all."

Curiously, he criticized the silence on the part of the Muslim world - "especially the Organization of the Islamic Conference" (OIC) - over the "enormous brutality and oppression in Iraq". He said, "It is not clear why Muslim states, especially the OIC, do not show any reaction against so much injustice and oppression in Iraq, while such measures could be easily prevented through unity and solidarity." The remark contained a barely disguised barb aimed at Saudi Arabia for hobnobbing with the US. (US Vice President Dick Cheney had visited Riyadh and Baghdad barely one week before Maliki launched the offensive in Basra.)

Yet, all in all, Jannati politely refrained from expressing Iran's complete disapproval of the conduct of Maliki in carrying out the offensive as part of the US game plan to establish control of Basra, which is the principal artery for American oil majors to evacuate Iraqi oil. The Sadrists oppose the current plans for opening up the nationalized Iraqi oil industry to foreign exploitation.

However, the day after Jannati spoke, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini came down hard on the Maliki government. He deplored the use of American and British air power against the Sadrist militia - "waves of US-UK air raids on civilians". He called on the Shi'ite factions to end the fighting as "continued fighting only serves the interests of the occupiers ... and give pretexts to occupiers to continue their illegitimate presence" in Iraq.

Most important, he called for negotiations - which had already commenced in Qom by that time - "in a friendly and goodwill atmosphere". As for the Maliki government, Hosseini expressed the hope it would "exercise wisdom, cooperation, mutual understanding, patience, calm and contacts with Iraqi political leaders to overcome the current crisis period". Plainly put, Hosseini asked Maliki not to be dumb enough to sub-serve US interests and to realize where his own political interests lay. He pointedly drew a line of distinction between Maliki and the powerful Iraqi Shi'ite leadership.

The Iranian accounts of the fighting have shown a distinct sympathy for the Sadrist militia, highlighting that the Mahdi Army was being "unfairly singled out" for attack by government forces; that the Sadrists' quarrel with Maliki was that he "refused to set a deadline for US and coalition troops to leave"; that US troops were providing the government forces with "intelligence, surveillance and occasional air strikes and raids"; and that Iraqi troops were refusing to obey orders to fight the Sadrist militia. The Iranian official news agency quoted Muqtada as comparing Maliki to Saddam Hussein. "Under Saddam's rule, we complained about how the government distanced itself from the people and operated under dictatorial terms. Now the government is also dealing with people on such terms," he was quoted as saying.

Out of the dramatic developments of the past week, several questions arise, the principal being that the Bush administration's triumphalism over the so-called Iraq "surge" strategy has become irredeemably farcical, and, two, US doublespeak has become badly exposed. What stands out is that Washington promoted the latest round of violence in Basra, whereas Iran cried halt to it. The awesome influence of Tehran has become all too apparent. How does Bush come to terms with it?

What has happened is essentially that Iran has frustrated the joint US-British objective of gaining control of Basra, without which the strategy of establishing control over the fabulous oil fields of southern Iraq will not work. Control of Basra is a pre-requisite before American oil majors make their multi-billion investments to kick start large-scale oil production in Iraq. Iraq's Southern Oil Company is headquartered in Basra. Highly strategic installations are concentrated in the region, such as pipeline networks, pumping stations, refineries and loading terminals. The American oil majors will insist on fastening these installations.

The game plan for control of Basra now needs to be reworked. The idea was to take Basra in hand now so that the Sadrists would be thwarted from taking over the local administration in elections in October - in other words, to ensure the political underpinning for Basra. All indications are that the Sadrists are riding a huge wave of popular support. They have caught the imagination of the poor, downtrodden, dispossessed masses in the majority Shi'ite community. They are hard to replace in democratic elections. The sense of frustration in Washington and London must be very deep that Basra is not yet fastened. Time is running out for Bush to make sure that his successor in the White House inherits an irreversible process in the US's Iraq policy.

Indeed, in his first comments, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown initially refused to say on Tuesday whether the government's plans to cut the number of troops in Iraq to 2,500 from 4,000 were on course. He simply said British troops were facing "difficulties" in Basra. This was followed by Defense Secretary Des Browne saying that return of 2,500 troops from southern Iraq this spring had been placed on hold indefinitely.

Bush hasn't yet spoken. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates put on a brave face, saying first-hand information was limited, but based on that, "they [Iraqi troops] seem to have done a pretty good job". To be sure, Cheney must be furious that Tehran torpedoed the entire US strategy for Big Oil. He has had a hard time shepherding the pro-West Arab regimes in the region, especially Saudi Arabia, up to this point.

Besides, nothing infuriates Cheney more than when US oil interests are hit. Thus, the most critical few weeks in the decades-long US-Iran standoff may have just begun. Last week, five former US secretaries of state who served in Democratic and Republican administrations - Henry Kissinger, James Baker, Warren Christopher, Madeline Albright and Colin Powell - sat at a round-table discussion in Athens and reached a consensus to urge the next US administration to open a line of dialogue with Iran.

Link to AJC Editorial

* * * * *

So what has this defining moment in Iraq's history produced? The Mahdi army is still in control of much of Basra; the Iraqi army has been exposed as ineffective; and Iran's heavy influence over Iraq is now crystal clear for all to see. (The man who reportedly brokered the ceasefire in Iran is the commander of Iran's Qud forces, the group labeled by administration officials and others as a terrorist group.)

Tellingly, it seems that U.S. officials played little or no role in those negotiations, and perhaps were not even aware they were taking place. Our forces provided logistical support and air power for the assault on Basra, but when it came time to cut a deal, it was the Iranians, not the Americans, who served as power brokers.

That ought to bury the administration's claim that Iraq will someday serve as a bulwark against the spread of Iranian influence in the region. Iraq, like Iran, is a majority Shiite country, and every major Iraqi Shiite political party has close ties to Iran.

And in the Arab culture, being asked to mediate a conflict is a sign of great respect. According to George Irani and Nathan Funk, who have studied reconciliation in Arab cultures, "The mediator is perceived not as a mere facilitator, but rather as someone who has all the answers and solutions; he therefore has a great deal of power and corresponding responsibility."

We Americans are outsiders in that region and culture, and we will always be outsiders. Our overwhelming military power may make us relevant for the moment, but muscle doesn't count for much in a game of chess.

______________________________________________________________________

Do you remember, earlier in the war, when the "secret" to gaining the respect of Iraqis was discovered? U.S. military officers just needed to grow big moustaches. It was an Iraqi cultural thing. And if our officers just did that, we'd have the Iraqis' respect.

Pollyanna visits Mesopotamia.

Link to NYT Article

* * * * * *

In a sense, his predicament can be traced to the night of April 11, 2003, when he arrived back at his family’s palatial compound west of Baghdad to find the main house a heap of burning rubble. The American military had bombed it, having heard that Mr. Hussein was hiding there.

But instead of killing the Iraqi dictator, they had killed Mr. Kharbit’s older brother, Malik al-Kharbit — the very man who had led the family’s negotiations with the C.I.A. to topple Mr. Hussein.

The bombing also killed 21 other people, including children, and the fury it aroused has been widely believed to have helped kick-start the insurgency in western Iraq. That fact may have helped fuel American suspicion toward Mr. Kharbit.

But until now, Mr. Kharbit has not disclosed another crucial detail about the bombing: Mr. Hussein was, in fact, staying at the Kharbit family compound that night, with his two sons and his half-brother Barzan Ibrahim al-Tikriti. They were all in a smaller villa next to the one the bombs struck, and were not harmed.

When Mr. Kharbit arrived that night, he says he found Mr. Hussein weeping outside the burning building. The dictator’s son Qusay was struggling to rescue a wounded child from the rubble.

The Hussein family left soon afterward. American officials said they had not known that Mr. Hussein was there at the time, and the account came from Mr. Kharbit alone.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2008-04-01-iraqnews_N.htm

By Charles Levinson, USA TODAY

BAGHDAD — On the eve of the Iraqi government's showdown last week with radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia, Ismail Shnawa's commander ordered him not to fight.
"He told us not to shoot back even if we get shot at by the Mahdi Army," said Shnawa, a soldier in Iraq's paramilitary police force that is commanded by the Iraqi army.

The six-day showdown with al-Sadr and other Shiite militias was the toughest test for Iraqi government forces since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The week of violence exposed troubling signs that the country's security forces have much work before they can take over for U.S. troops. Militias and their followers remain entrenched within the government forces, and units sympathetic to al-Sadr, such as Shnawa's, refused to fight.

In the southern town of Basra, more than 400 Iraqi soldiers and officers handed their weapons to the enemy, Ministry of Interior spokesman Abdel Karim Khalaf said.

In Baghdad, at least 65 Iraqi soldiers and policemen switched loyalties, said Baghdad's deputy mayor, Naeem al-Kaabi, a Sadrist leader. Many others either wouldn't fight or willingly surrendered, including Shnawa and 50 others in his unit. Units that did fight struggled to gain ground against the powerful Shiite militias.

Link to McClatchy Article

By Warren P. Strobel and Nancy A. Youssef | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Tuesday, April 1, 2008

* * * * * *

"There is no empirical evidence that the Iraqi forces can stand up" on their own, a senior U.S. military official in Washington said, reflecting the frustration of some at the Pentagon. He and other military officials requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak for the record.

Having Iraqi forces take a leadership role in combating militias and Islamic extremists was crucial to U.S. hopes of withdrawing more American forces in Iraq and reducing the severe strains the Iraq war has put on the Army and Marine Corps.

The failure of Iraqi forces to defeat rogue fighters in Basra has some in the military fearing they can no longer predict when it might be possible to reduce the number of troops to pre-surge levels.

"It's more complicated now," said one officer in Iraq whose role has been critical to American planning there.

Link to 'Military feels fuel-cost gouge in Iraq'

By ANNE FLAHERTY, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Think you're being gouged by Big Oil? U.S. troops in Iraq are paying almost as much as Americans back home, despite burning fuel at staggering rates in a war to stabilize a country known for its oil reserves.

Military units pay an average of $3.23 a gallon for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, some $88 a day per service member in Iraq, according to an Associated Press review and interviews with defense officials. A penny or two increase in the price of fuel can add millions of dollars to U.S. costs.

Critics in Congress are fuming. The U.S., they say, is getting suckered as the cost of the war exceeds half a trillion dollars — $10.3 billion a month, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Some lawmakers say oil-rich allies in the Middle East should be doing more to subsidize fuel costs because of the stake they have in a secure Iraq. Others point to Iraq's own burgeoning surplus as crude oil prices top $100 a barrel. Baghdad subsidies let Iraqis pay only about $1.36 a gallon.

French troop commitment may be smaller than expected

PARIS - French President Nicolas Sarkozy met widespread opposition yesterday to his plans to send new combat troops to join Nato in Afghanistan as his prime minister pledged "several hundred" extra troops to the mission.

François Fillon's announcement in parliament marks the first time that a senior French official has publicly put a figure to the size of the reinforcement. France had initially been expected to send an extra 1,000 troops in addition to its 1,500 soldiers serving mainly around Kabul. Mr. Sarkozy is to decide the final total at the Nato summit, French officials said.

In a bitter parliamentary debate, Mr. Fillon said France expected to send extra troops because "peace in Afghanistan will largely condition our security, and thus our freedom." He insisted that France had a duty to help to defeat Taliban forces and al-Qaeda, adding: "It is a difficult combat, but a just one."

Emboldened by public hostility to the deployment, the Socialist opposition denounced Mr. Sarkozy for taking France into "a new Vietnam" and waging war merely to win favour with Washington.

According to a BVA opinion poll yesterday, only 15 per cent of the public back the deployment, which Mr. Sarkozy announced in London last week and will flesh out at the Nato summit in Bucharest.
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