Speculation Centers on Fears of Missiles and Nuclear Weapons
Peace Talks Seem Impossible as Tensions Grow Between Syrians and Israelis
By SIMON MCGREGOR-WOOD
ABC
JERUSALEM, Sept. 14. 2007 —

Eight days ago, the Syrian government announced that Israeli military jets had been spotted flying through Syrian airspace. The Syrians said the jets had been fired upon and had fled. The Israelis said nothing at all.

Ever since, the region and its media have been engaged in a frenzy of speculation as to what really happened. As soon as news of the reported incident broke, the Israeli government imposed a complete media blackout.

That blackout has muzzled Israeli journalists who have been frustrated by the silence of their usually talkative defense sources. In one bulletin an Israeli radio announcer sarcastically told his audience to log onto the Web site of a government-sponsored Syrian newspaper to find out what really happened.

In the strange atmosphere that has followed last week's incident, the region's bloggers have been working overtime to fill the void. What seems clear is that something important did happen, and far from the Israeli mission being limited to probing, or reconnaissance, the consensus view is that the Israelis flew a mission that had a real target.

This speculation has been supported by a number of anonymous defense sources in the United States. One such source is quoted in The New York Times saying, "The strike I can confirm, the target, I can't."

Judging by the extraordinary secrecy attached to the target, it was highly sensitive. Another unnamed U.S. source said the Israeli strike "left a big hole in the desert." Meanwhile the Syrians are sticking to their story that the Israelis turned and ran once they were detected. Syrian U.N. ambassador Bashar al Ja'afari told reporters: "There was no target. They dropped their munitions. They were running away."

Here are the leading theories about the target, in no particular order of credibility or importance:

The Israelis, presumably with U.S. knowledge and backing, targeted a transfer of weapons destined for the Lebanese group Hezbollah. This trafficking of weapons has long been an issue for the Israelis, and now is in direct contravention of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which was drawn up at the end of last year's conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Israeli intelligence has been warning that Hezbollah is trying to rearm and the usual suspects are Syria and Iran.

Syrian ballistic missiles were the target. Syria has a lot of missiles within range of Israel's main population centers. In recent years, according to Western intelligence sources, they have been trying to improve and upgrade with the help of the North Koreans and others. Last summer's conflict between Israel and Hezbollah showed that Israel's conventional military superiority can be neutralized by an opponent who can strike deep inside Israel's home front. Syria certainly has that capability and if it is radically improved that would be cause for Israeli concern.

The strike targeted nonconventional weapons facilities. Syria is known to have chemical weapons capability and its own production plants. With an upgrade in Syria's missile arsenal, this capability becomes a big worry for the Israelis. If some kind of intelligence warning indicated the Syrians have reached a higher level in this area, the Israelis might have decided to act.

The second unconventional area is, of course, the nuclear one. A New York Times story this week suggested with the help of some U.S. defense and diplomatic sources that the strike targeted an emerging nuclear program. Again, the North Koreans are implicated with former U.S. Ambassador John Bolton stoking the fires with bold claims about North Korean technology transfers to the Syrians. "It is legitimate to ask questions about whether that cooperation extends on the nuclear side," he told The New York Times.

Despite the recent improvement in U.S.-North Korean relations over the nuclear issue and the communist state's declared intention to abandon its enrichment program, one unnamed administration official, quoted in the Times, expressed a word of caution. "The Israelis think North Korea is selling to Iran and Syria what little they have left."

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in an interview with Fox News declined to comment on the supposed airstrike, but did add fuel to the fires of speculation by repeating the administration's policy of preventing what she called "the world's most dangerous people from having the world's most dangerous weapons."

ABC News consultant and former U.S. Ambassador to Korea, Donald Gregg believes that the North Koreans could be selling weapons but is highly skeptical of the idea that they would be touting nuclear technology, "North Korea has sold short-range missiles to a number of countries, and may well have sold some to Syria."

But, Gregg adds, "The idea that North Korea would jeopardize the progress it is currently making with the United States by becoming involved in nuclear-related issues in the most volatile region of the world beggars belief, as the establishment of normal relations with the US has been a major objective of North Korea since the collapse of the USSR."

If the Israelis thought the Syrians were developing nuclear ambitions, many analysts think they would certainly consider a preemptive strike, as they did against the Iraqi nuclear program of Saddam Hussein in the 1980s.

It is interesting to note that the only countries to have launched vehement rhetorical attacks against the Israeli action have been Iran and North Korea, whose foreign ministry in an official statement accused Israel of a "dangerous provocation little short of wantonly violating the sovereignty of Syria and seriously harassing the regional peace."

Syria's Arab neighbors have been strangely quiet and have refused to be drawn into their usual criticism of Israel's military adventures. Do their governments know something about the target we don't?

Whatever happened, the incident has certainly raised tension between the two countries. They are already in a state of war after the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights at the end of the Six Day War in 1967. The tension has been growing all year with both sides conducting a confusing dual campaign of military exercises and talk of peace negotiations.

The chance of them sitting down to talk peace now seems more remote than ever. The Syrians have complained to the U.N. Security Council, but are also hinting at other responses.

"Our response has not yet come," Ja'afari told BBC Arabic Service, accusing Israel of "seeking military escalation." Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad added that his country retains "the means to respond in ways that will preserve its position of power."

Meanwhile, most diplomatic sources suggest neither side wishes to let this incident flare into a full-blown conflict. The Israelis have recently stopped potentially provocative military exercises on the Golan Heights, and Western intelligence sources have detected no mobilization of Syrian forces since the incident.

In the absence of official statements from the Israelis, the frenzy of speculation, however, looks set to continue, with little prospect of the two sides sitting down to talk peace.

posted in full under fair use

Bush administration dogged by North Korea-Syria nuclear links
15 Sep 2007, 0731 hrs IST,AFP

WASHINGTON: Divisions have appeared again in US President George Bush's administration over a North Korean nuclear disarmament deal amid leaked US intelligence citing alleged atomic links between the Stalinist state and Syria.

As North Korea moves to declare and disable its nuclear weapons program under a six-party deal, reports in the New York Times and Washington Post have suggested Pyongyang may be helping US arch rival Syria build a nuclear weapons facility.

The reports, citing unnamed sources, were based on intelligence information supposedly from Israel's flyover and apparent raid last week on targets inside Syria.

The information could have been provided by hawks within the Bush administration who are against the rapidly-progressing deal with North Korea, some experts said.

They questioned the timing of the reports, coming just ahead of key six-party talks among the United States, China, the two Koreas, Japan and Russia, where Pyongyang is widely expected to agree to declare and disable its nuclear arsenal by the end of 2007.

"There is supposed to be an effort by some officials to torpedo the North Korea nuclear deal by portraying North Korea as a 'proliferator,'" said Joseph Cirincione, a weapons expert, who was once a key advisor to Congress.

He likened the reports to those that surfaced in the run up to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 during which officials provided apparently incorrect intelligence information about Saddam Hussein's alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Washington for decades has accused North Korea, which carried out a nuclear weapons test in October 2006, of WMD proliferation. US officials have charged Syria with bankrolling terrorism groups in the Middle East.

"The potential nexus between WMD and terrorism is the biggest threat to the security of the US and its allies," said the conservative opinion page of the Wall Street Journal on Friday, seeking a freeze of the Korean nuclear deal.

"If North Korea is moving its nuclear facilities to Syria -- or 'merely' proliferating -- it would undermine everything at the heart of that (six-party aid-for-disarmament) agreement, as well as cross a long-stated American red line that Pyongyang not proliferate," the newspaper said.

"Even if it is unsure of the full implications of the intelligence, the administration has an obligation not to proceed with a nuclear deal until Pyongyang and Damascus come clean," it said.

State Department officials have refused to comment directly on the intelligence reports, except to say that Washington had always been concerned over North Korea's proliferation activities which had been a critical component of the six-party talks that began in 2003.

"The reason we have a six-party process and the reason we have, you know, put together a number of pretty serious countries in this process is to make sure that the North Koreans get out of the nuclear business," Hill said.

He likened the reports as "an important reminder of the need to accelerate the process that we're already engaged in and to push for what we've already agreed to do, which is to achieve de-nuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula."

The evidence of the North Korea-Syrian links include satellite imagery that led some US officials to believe the Syrian facility could be used to produce material for nuclear weapons, the Washington Post said.

Israel reconnaissance flights over Syria took pictures of possible nuclear installations that Israeli officials believed might have been supplied with material from North Korea, The New York Times said.

Robert Einhorn, a former top non-proliferation official in the State Department, said he was aware of North Korean and Syrian cooperation in the missile area when he was in the government.

"We were aware of that cooperation during the 1990s but since I left government in 2001, I don't know what kind of cooperation may be taking place," he said.

The Syrian nuclear program has been around for 40 years, Cirincione said. "It is a basic research program built around a tiny 30 kilowatt reactor that produced a few isotopes and neutrons. It is no where near a program for nuclear weapons or nuclear fuel," he said.

Over a dozen countries have helped Syria develop its nuclear program, including Belgium, Germany, Russia, China and even the United States, by way of training of scientists, he said.

"If North Korea gave them anything short of nuclear weapons, it's of little consequence," Cirincione said.

Was Israeli raid a dry run for attack on Iran?

Mystery surrounds last week's air foray into Syrian territory. The Observer's Foreign Affairs Editor attempts to unravel the truth behind Operation Orchard and allegations of nuclear subterfuge

Peter Beaumont
Sunday September 16, 2007
The Observer

The head of Israel's airforce, Major-General Eliezer Shkedi, was visiting a base in the coastal city of Herziliya last week. For the 50-year-old general, also the head of Israel's Iran Command, which would fight a war with Tehran if ordered, it was a morale-boosting affair, a meet-and-greet with pilots and navigators who had flown during last summer's month-long war against Lebanon. The journalists who had turned out in large numbers were there for another reason: to question Shkedi about a mysterious air raid that happened this month, codenamed 'Orchard', carried out deep in Syrian territory by his pilots.

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Shkedi ignored all questions. It set a pattern for the days to follow as he and Israel's politicians and officials maintained a steely silence, even when the questions came from the visiting French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner. Those journalists who thought of reporting the story were discouraged by the threat of Israel's military censor.

But the rumours were in circulation, not just in Israel but in Washington and elsewhere. In the days that followed, the sketchy details of the raid were accompanied by contradictory claims even as US and British officials admitted knowledge of the raid. The New York Times described the target of the raid as a nuclear site being run in collaboration with North Korean technicians. Others reported that the jets had hit either a Hizbollah convoy, a missile facility or a terrorist camp.

Amid the confusion there were troubling details that chimed uncomfortably with the known facts. Two detachable tanks from an Israeli fighter were found just over the Turkish border. According to Turkish military sources, they belonged to a Raam F15I - the newest generation of Israeli long-range bomber, which has a combat range of over 2,000km when equipped with the drop tanks. This would enable them to reach targets in Iran, leading to speculation that it was an 'operation rehearsal' for a raid on Tehran's nuclear facilities.

Finally, however, at the week's end, the first few tangible details were beginning to emerge about Operation Orchard from a source involved in the Israeli operation.

They were sketchy, but one thing was absolutely clear. Far from being a minor incursion, the Israeli overflight of Syrian airspace through its ally, Turkey, was a far more major affair involving as many as eight aircraft, including Israel's most ultra-modern F-15s and F-16s equipped with Maverick missiles and 500lb bombs. Flying among the Israeli fighters at great height, The Observer can reveal, was an ELINT - an electronic intelligence gathering aircraft.

What was becoming clear by this weekend amid much scepticism, largely from sources connected with the administration of President George Bush, was the nature of the allegation, if not the facts.

In a series of piecemeal leaks from US officials that gave the impression of being co-ordinated, a narrative was laid out that combined nuclear skulduggery and the surviving members of the 'axis of evil': Iran, North Korea and Syria.

It also combined a series of neoconservative foreign policy concerns: that North Korea was not being properly monitored in the deal struck for its nuclear disarmament and was off-loading its material to Iran and Syria, both of which in turn were helping to rearm Hizbollah.

Underlying all the accusations was a suggestion that recalled the bogus intelligence claims that led to the war against Iraq: that the three countries might be collaborating to supply an unconventional weapon to Hizbollah.

It is not only the raid that is odd but also, ironically, the deliberate air of mystery surrounding it, given Israel's past history of bragging about similar raids, including an attack on an Iraqi reactor. It was a secrecy so tight, in fact, that even as the Israeli aircrew climbed into the cockpits of their planes they were not told the nature of the target they were being ordered to attack.

According to an intelligence expert quoted in the Washington Post who spoke to aircrew involved in the raid, the target of the attack, revealed only to the pilots while they were in the air, was a northern Syrian facility that was labelled as an agricultural research centre on the Euphrates river, close to the Turkish border.

According to this version of events, a North Korean ship, officially carrying a cargo of cement, docked three days before the raid in the Syrian port of Tartus. That ship was also alleged to be carrying nuclear equipment.

It is an angle that has been pushed hardest by the neoconservative hawk and former US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton. But others have entered the fray, among them the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, who, without mentioning Syria by name, suggested to Fox television that the raid was linked to stopping unconventional weapons proliferation.

Most explicit of all was Andrew Semmel, acting deputy assistant Secretary of State for nuclear non-proliferation policy, who, speaking in Rome yesterday, insisted that 'North Koreans were in Syria' and that Damascus may have had contacts with 'secret suppliers' to obtain nuclear equipment.

'There are indicators that they do have something going on there,' he said. 'We do know that there are a number of foreign technicians that have been in Syria. We do know that there may have been contact between Syria and some secret suppliers for nuclear equipment. Whether anything transpired remains to be seen.

'So good foreign policy, good national security policy, would suggest that we pay very close attention to that,' he said. 'We're watching very closely. Obviously, the Israelis were watching very closely.'

But despite the heavy inference, no official so far has offered an outright accusation. Instead they have hedged their claims in ifs and buts, assiduously avoiding the term 'weapons of mass destruction'.

There has also been deep scepticism about the claims from other officials and former officials familiar with both Syria and North Korea. They have pointed out that an almost bankrupt Syria has neither the economic nor the industrial base to support the kind of nuclear programme described, adding that Syria has long rejected going down the nuclear route.

Others have pointed out that North Korea and Syria in any case have also had a long history of close links - making meaningless the claim that the North Koreans are in Syria.

The scepticism was reflected by Bruce Reidel, a former intelligence official at the Brookings Institution's Saban Centre, quoted in the Post. 'It was a substantial Israeli operation, but I can't get a good fix on whether the target was a nuclear thing,' adding that there was 'a great deal of scepticism that there's any nuclear angle here' and instead the facility could have been related to chemical or biological weapons.

The opaqueness surrounding the nature of what may have been hit in Operation Orchard has been compounded by claims that US knowledge over the alleged 'agricultural site' has come not from its own intelligence and satellite imaging, but from material supplied to Washington from Tel Aviv over the last six months, material that has been restricted to just a few senior officials under the instructions of national security adviser Stephen Hadley, leaving many in the intelligence community uncertain of its veracity.

Whatever the truth of the allegations against Syria - and Israel has a long history of employing complex deceptions in its operations - the message being delivered from Tel Aviv is clear: if Syria's ally, Iran, comes close to acquiring a nuclear weapon, and the world fails to prevent it, either through diplomatic or military means, then Israel will stop it on its own.

So Operation Orchard can be seen as a dry run, a raid using the same heavily modified long-range aircraft, procured specifically from the US with Iran's nuclear sites in mind. It reminds both Iran and Syria of the supremacy of its aircraft and appears to be designed to deter Syria from getting involved in the event of a raid on Iran - a reminder, if it were required, that if Israel's ground forces were humiliated in the second Lebanese war its airforce remains potent, powerful and unchallenged.

And, critically, the raid on Syria has come as speculation about a war against Iran has begun to re-emerge after a relatively quiet summer.

With the US keen to push for a third UN Security Council resolution authorising a further tranche of sanctions against Iran, both London and Washington have increased the heat by alleging that they are already fighting 'a proxy war' with Tehran in Iraq.

Perhaps more worrying are the well-sourced claims from conservative thinktanks in the US that there have been 'instructions' by the office of Vice-President Dick Cheney to roll out support for a war against Iran.

In the end there is no mystery. Only a frightening reminder. In a world of proxy threats and proxy actions, the threat of military action against Iran has far from disappeared from the agenda.

Israelis ‘blew apart Syrian nuclear cache’
Secret raid on Korean shipment
Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv, Sarah Baxter in Washington and Michael Sheridan

IT was just after midnight when the 69th Squadron of Israeli F15Is crossed the Syrian coast-line. On the ground, Syria’s formidable air defences went dead. An audacious raid on a Syrian target 50 miles from the Iraqi border was under way.

At a rendezvous point on the ground, a Shaldag air force commando team was waiting to direct their laser beams at the target for the approaching jets. The team had arrived a day earlier, taking up position near a large underground depot. Soon the bunkers were in flames.

Ten days after the jets reached home, their mission was the focus of intense speculation this weekend amid claims that Israel believed it had destroyed a cache of nuclear materials from North Korea.

The Israeli government was not saying. “The security sources and IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] soldiers are demonstrating unusual courage,” said Ehud Olmert, the prime minister. “We naturally cannot always show the public our cards.”

The Syrians were also keeping mum. “I cannot reveal the details,” said Farouk al-Sharaa, the vice-president. “All I can say is the military and political echelon is looking into a series of responses as we speak. Results are forthcoming.” The official story that the target comprised weapons destined for Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shi’ite group, appeared to be crumbling in the face of widespread scepticism.

Andrew Semmel, a senior US State Department official, said Syria might have obtained nuclear equipment from “secret suppliers”, and added that there were a “number of foreign technicians” in the country.

Asked if they could be North Korean, he replied: “There are North Korean people there. There’s no question about that.” He said a network run by AQ Khan, the disgraced creator of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, could be involved.

But why would nuclear material be in Syria? Known to have chemical weapons, was it seeking to bolster its arsenal with something even more deadly?

Alternatively, could it be hiding equipment for North Korea, enabling Kim Jong-il to pretend to be giving up his nuclear programme in exchange for economic aid? Or was the material bound for Iran, as some authorities in America suggest?

According to Israeli sources, preparations for the attack had been going on since late spring, when Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, presented Olmert with evidence that Syria was seeking to buy a nuclear device from North Korea.

The Israeli spy chief apparently feared such a device could eventually be installed on North-Korean-made Scud-C missiles.

more to read with salt

And in comments we have:

Does anyone think that some of the nuclear material the Isaeli's destroyed could have come from Iraq before, during and after the initial war? Many US intelligence Agencies believe Sadam moved his Weapons of Mass Destruction to Syria with the help of the Russian special forces.

2007/09/16 09:13 KST
N.K. diplomat dismisses reports of nuclear ties with Syria as 'groundless'

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 (Yonhap) -- A senior North Korean diplomat on Saturday denied continuing allegations of his country's nuclear cooperation with Syria.

혻 혻 "They often say things that are groundless," Kim Myong-gil, deputy chief of North Korean mission to the United Nations, told Yonhap over the phone, the first comment by a Pyongyang official on fresh allegations that broke out this week.

혻혻 When asked to elaborate, he answered that he had nothing more to say and hung up the phone.

혻 혻 As six nations get ready to start critical talks on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, suspicions were raised that Pyongyang may be working with Damascus on nuclear programs, following an unexplained Israeli air raid on Syria on Sept. 6. Press reports said the raid may have targeted a facility where nuclear cooperation taking place.

혻 혻 The Washington Post, citing a U.S. expert who talked to Israeli officials, said Saturday that the attack appears to be linked to the arrival of a ship carrying material from North Korea labeled as cement.

혻혻 Washington has yet to confirm or deny the reports.

혻 혻 Christopher Hill, top U.S. nuclear envoy, evaded all questions about the new suspicions and said the six-nation negotiations should provide the answers.

혻혻 Under a deal struck in February by the six parties -- South and North Korea, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan -- Pyongyang is required to disable its nuclear facilities and declare all of its nuclear programs.

혻혻 In a briefing Friday, Hill said the involved countries "need to know what all of their (North Korean) programs are, and obviously any proliferation.

혻혻 "So at the end of all this, we would expect to have a pretty clear idea of whether they've engaged in proliferation in other countries."

Also see ACW: Bolton Lobbies Against North Korea Deal

The Right Confronts Rice Over North Korea Policy

By MARK MAZZETTI and WILLIAM J. BROAD
Published: October 25, 2007

WASHINGTON, Oct. 24 — A fight has erupted between conservatives on national security and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice over the Bush administration’s pursuit of diplomacy with North Korea in the face of intelligence that North Korea might have helped Syria begin construction on a nuclear reactor.

The debate moved to Capitol Hill on Wednesday, when Ms. Rice had a tense private meeting with Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, the senior Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Just days earlier, Ms. Ros-Lehtinen was the co-author of an opinion article questioning the White House approach, which offers incentives to North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program.

That article also criticized the Bush administration for what it called the “veil of secrecy” surrounding intelligence that led to an Israeli airstrike in Syria last month on the suspected reactor site, and for the fact that only a handful of lawmakers have been briefed on the subject.

Congressional officials said that Ms. Ros-Lehtinen contended that if more lawmakers knew about the intelligence, more would be concerned about a pending nuclear agreement with North Korea.

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