IMF Director Warns Of U.S. Economic Slowdown

Paris | September 12

AP - The U.S. economy will slow next year amid continued trouble in the housing market, likely leading to lower interest rates, a senior International Monetary Fund official said Wednesday.

Simon Johnson, director of the IMF's Research department, said fallout from the subprime credit crisis hasn't yet been resolved — and the IMF doesn't understand why tight financial markets continue.

"The problem hasn't been resolved," despite efforts from major central banks to boost liquidity in the financial markets, said Simon Johnson, director of the IMF's research department. "This makes it hard to assess the outlook."

Johnson predicted that the impact of the lending crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the United States will be limited outside the Americas.

"The effect ... on the real economy is limited because European markets managed to be relatively insulated from the shock," he said.

The IMF is "very comfortable" with moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to make funds available for the tightening credit markets.

Financial markets are expecting the Fed to ease rates further, Johnson said.

"This is a situation where interest rates are likely to fall," he said, adding that U.S. inflation appeared to be rising more slowly than previously thought. "Overall, the interest rate environment in the U.S. is clearly softening."


Petronius September 12, 2007 - 7:25am
( categories: News | Economics: USA )

UCLA forecast says US economy having a 'near recession experience'

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial, Sept 12) - A quarterly report out of the University of California says the US economy, while not technically in a recession, is having a 'near recession experience.'

The UCLA study released today predicts real US economic growth will be just above 1 pct in the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2008, and says the deterioration of the housing market is to blame.

The forecast lowered its expectations for housing activity because of tightening credit and the slower pace of new home construction.

'Previously, the forecast called for housing starts to bottom out around 1.2 mln; currently the forecast is for 1.0-1.1 mln units,' UCLA's Anderson School of Management said.

UCLA Senior Economist David Shulman said his team thinks 'the recovery will be far more tepid with starts barely recovering to 1.4 mln by the end of 2009.'


"Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity."

Raja September 13, 2007 - 6:35am

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