definitely part of it, but so is overall cost of extraction. Getting oil out of the tar sands is expensive and I don't believe our current economy is designed to run with the kind of costs incurred from extracting it. There's still lots of oil around, its just getting harder and more costly to obtain and use it--especially as our power to secure remote supplies around the globe through force or agreement wanes.

And the elephant in the room, as always, is global warming. Burning all the oil more slowly is still going to cause climate change--just a bit slower. What we need to do is try our hardest to release CO2 at a rate that is lower than its global rate of absorption back into the ground/plants/etc. Fuel efficiency increases, better insulation, and so on are all just stops along the way toward achieving this goal.

The most realistic future, imo, is one where most of our energy is derived from solar, wind, geothermal, and perhaps nuclear power.

I read the executive summary--well, heavily skimmed it. I cringed at their continued advocacy of fossil fuels, even with all the efficiency and carbon sequestration improvements they recommended. Overall though, I think its a pretty good look at the future of global energy from the perspective of those currently running the market.

If "business-as-usual" continues, they will likely be right. If not--if climate change happens faster than we currently think, oil reserves deplete quicker, and public outcry gets very loud--we're in for a bumpy ride. Personally, I think that they downplay the effect of global warming in the document and, while supportive, don't give enough thought to solar, wind, etc. I'm not surprised though. The organization that produced the document is called the National Petroleum Council.

If we can't keep from killing each other with something as insane as wars, what chance do we have of digging into our better natures and halting (or even slowing) global warming? It's not in the makeup of our species. Heck, we can't even agree to quit growing and selling tobacco.

I apologize for the Tuesday cynicism, but I feel someone's got to growl the truth.

Peabody Coal's a pretty good value now--market symbol BTU.

It's roughly my view as well. But I figure I might as well pretend that solutions will be implemented and will work and behave as though I expect things to get better. Resigning yourself to defeat only makes it more likely. I do think things will get worse, but I also think they'll get better afterwards.

Taking active steps to make things better at your own local level right now and in the near future is the key. Even if you think we're screwed in the end, fighting to change things for the better is the best bet--if you win the bet, things get better. If you lose... well, you were probably screwed anyway, right? And at least you tried.