Battle for Baghdad: City braces itself for US surge

Urban fighting amid the ruins
By Patrick Cockburn in Baghdad
Published: 28 January 2007

Lina Massufi, a 32-year-old Iraqi laboratory assistant with two children, is a widow - her husband was killed by US troops when he accidentally drove down a closed road in 2003. In the past three months she has seen her house raided and her furniture smashed 12 times.

"Every time they raid my house, they break down the door," she told a UN official. When she asked them why they did not ring the bell "they laughed at me and called me an idiot". Her brother Fae'ek, a pharmacy student, was arrested and held in prison for a week. "He returned with signs of torture on his body, and was crying like a baby because of the pain."

Her story shows why the odds are against what may be President George Bush's final gamble in Iraq: the attempt by US troops, now receiving 17,500 reinforcements, to regain control of Baghdad. The plan is for US forces, along with Iraqi army and police, to enter Sunni and Shia districts in the capital, cleanse them of insurgents and militia and then stay put, preventing their return. In his State of the Union speech last week Mr Bush told Congress: "With Iraqis in the lead, our forces will help secure the city by chasing down the terrorists, insurgents, and the roaming death squads."

But the failings of this strategy become more obvious the further one gets from Washington and the closer to Baghdad. The insurgents and militiamen, both Sunni and Shia, usually have more credibility in their districts than Iraqi government forces. As for the heavily Shia police commandos, they are seen by Sunni in Baghdad as licensed death squads.

A foretaste of what the "surge" of US and Iraqi soldiers will mean came last week, as they fought their way into the tough Sunni insurgent-controlled Haifa Street neighbourhood, only a mile from the Green Zone. Iraqi soldiers happily let US forces take the lead, and a US long-range missile demolished a house from which snipers were allegedly firing. The readiness of the Americans to use such heavy weapons in densely-populated urban areas ensures that many civilians have been, and will be, killed and wounded.

The Iraqi government forces are either highly sectarian or will not fight. The insurgents and militias are strong because they provide the security the government does not, and Baghdad has already broken up into several dozen hostile townships, each defended by its own militia. There are fewer and fewer mixed districts; Shia caught in Sunni areas are killed, and vice versa. Strangers are viewed with suspicion, and there are signs everywhere, saying "Death to Spies".

The American troops may be seen as temporary allies by either side, but are also blamed for the lethal anarchy. Some 61 per cent of Iraqis, a majority of both Sunni and Shia, approve of armed attacks on US forces.

The Shia, the majority in Baghdad, are on the offensive. They have their great bastion in the shabby overcrowded houses of Sadr City, with more than two million people, and have taken over almost all of Baghdad east of the Tigris, aside from a few hard-core Sunni areas such as al-Adhamiyah. They are also seizing ground in west Baghdad, attacking south from al-Khadamiyah, site of a revered Shia shrine. Al-Hurriya, once mixed, is now Shia; the Sunni are being pressed back into the south-west of the city.

In the heart of this Sunni core of Baghdad, now under insurgent control, lies al-Khadra. The sort of area where the future of the US plan will be decided, it used to be a modestly prosperous 1970s suburb, bisected by important highways now leading to the US military headquarters at the airport, the half-ruined city of Fallujah and the notorious prison at Abu Ghraib. Another highway leads to Taji, north of Baghdad, where there have been repeated insurgent attacks.

Al-Khadra's 60,000 people are waiting with dread to see what the coming US-Iraqi government offensive means for them. There is a lot for them to be frightened of: already young men of military age are leaving the neighbourhood for Syria or Mosul in northern Iraq.

more

28 January 2007 09:45

Inside Afghanistan: The battle for Kajaki

The war in the open spaces of Afghanistan is very different from the one being waged by the Americans in the streets of Baghdad. But for British Royal Marines engaged in daily firefights with the Taliban, it is no less dangerous

By Kim Sengupta in Kajaki, Afghanistan
Published: 28 January 2007

Royal Marine Andy Mason, on Sparrow Hawk ridge, sighted his heat-seeking Javelin anti-tank missile and squeezed the trigger. Eight seconds later it smashed into the target, a large house from which Taliban insurgents were firing at British forces.

Half a dozen insurgent fighters jumped off the first-storey balcony just before it disintegrated. Others in the compound were trying to flee when air strikes were called in. A Tornado GR7 dropped a 1,000lb bomb, leaving the building a pile of rubble and billowing smoke.

This encounter took place on Friday night in Kajaki, one of the most ruggedly beautiful parts of Afghanistan, but also the most dangerous, with daily fighting between Royal Marines and insurgents. Just before our helicopter landed from Camp Bastion, the main British base in southern Afghanistan's troubled Helmand province, the Taliban had begun shooting at the British position, starting a firefight that went on into the night.

While violence has ebbed away at other flashpoints in northern Helmand such as Sangin and Now Zad, and a truce of sorts holds at Musa Qala, it has escalated at Kajaki. Flanked by mountains and a deep-water lake, the area has become a symbolic and logistical prize for both sides. At its heart is the Kajaki dam, the biggest United States aid project in Afghanistan, which, when fully operational, will supply power to the provinces of Helmand and Kandahar.

The US construction company Lewis Berger has refused to begin work until a 6km safety zone has been established around the dam. That is what the Marines of 42 Commando are creating, in attritional warfare across some of the country's most inhospitable terrain.

In one week, starting on New Year's Day, British forces said they had killed more than 120 Taliban. One Marine and one member of the Parachute Regiment have been killed, and around half a dozen injured.

"I could see the guys on the balcony in my sight when I fired the Javelin", said 27-year-old Marine Mason, from Harlow, Essex. "They had received fire from us and would have known what to expect. All they would have seen was a flash. They jumped off the balcony and the Javelin followed them down. These are awesome weapons, but it's a sobering thought that each time you fire them it is costing £65,000. We come in constant contact with them, but we have firepower they can't match."

From three vantage points - Sparrow Hawk, Athens and Normandy - the Marines attempt to control and then expand into the valleys. They live and fight from old Soviet positions where one still comes across the debris of a lost war - twisted artillery wreckage, spent shells and also personal items like spectacles and books, abandoned when Soviet forces left in a hurry. Down below, groups of men, suspected insurgents, can be seen moving along the narrow tracks and a deep wadi between walled compounds. British convoys leaving Kajaki come under frequent Taliban fire.

Resting on sandbags next to his heavy machinegun, Corporal Steve Machin, a 34-year-old from Rotherham with 15 years' service, said: "I have seen a bit of action. I took part in the Iraq war, and I have been back there. I have also spent a lot of time in Northern Ireland. But this is the scariest place I have been to. I have never had so many bullets whizzing past at such a rate. And this is constant. One of our busiest days was at Christmas - for some reason they opened up and just kept going."

more

NYT reporter's Tavernise's MP3 report on Bagdad is worh a listen.

_{"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"}

New York Times, By DAMIEN CAVE, Jan 29

BAGHDAD, Jan. 28 — At least 250 militants were killed and an American helicopter was shot down in violent clashes near the southern city of Najaf on Sunday, Iraqi officials said.

For 15 hours, Iraqi forces backed by American helicopters and tanks battled hundreds of gunmen hiding in a date palm orchard near the village of Zarqaa, about 120 miles south of Baghdad, by a river and a large grain silo that is surrounded by orchards, the officials said.

It appeared to be one of the deadliest battles in Iraq since the American-led invasion four years ago, and was the first major fight for Iraqi forces in Najaf Province since they took over control of security there from the Americans in December.

That handover was trumpeted by the Iraqi government at the time as a sign of its progress in regaining more control of Iraqi territory.

The American military confirmed that the helicopter crashed around 1:30 p.m., and said that two soldiers aboard died in the crash. But American military officials said they could not confirm the total number of dead in the battle.

Washington | January 29

The Onion - In an effort to display his administration's willingness to fight on all fronts in the War on Terror, President Bush said at a press conference Monday that American ground forces in Afghanistan will be aided by the immediate deployment of Marine Pfc. Tim Ekenberg of Camp Lejeune, NC.

"I want the American people to know that I have not forgotten that our battle for freedom began in Afghanistan, rooting out the extremists of al-Qaeda and the Taliban," Bush said. "Today, I am ordering the deployment of the 325th Marine Expeditionary Brigade, Private Tim Ekenberg, to the embattled Kandahar region."

_{SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH CIA'S FORMER EUROPE DIRECTOR}

Jan 29

The former chief of the CIA's Europe division, Tyler Drumheller, discusses the United States foreign intelligence service's cooperation with Germany, the covert kidnapping of suspected terrorists and a Bush adminstration that ignored CIA advice and used whatever information it could find to justify an invasion of Iraq.

_{"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"}

Paris | January 30

Reuters - THE US has no strategic interest in ensuring that Iraq remain united, former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton said in an interview published today.

Mr Bolton, a close ally of US President George W. Bush who stepped down after Democrats made it clear they would block his renomination, also told Le Monde newspaper that the US should have handed power over to Iraqis more quickly.

"The United States has no strategic interest in the fact that there be one Iraq or three Iraqs," the newspaper quoted Mr Bolton as saying.

"We have a strategic interest in ensuring that what emerges is not a completely failed state that becomes a refuge for terrorists, or a terrorist state," he said.

Sunni and Shiite Muslims are engaged in an embryonic sectarian civil war in Iraq, and Mr Bush has said he will send 21,500 extra troops there in a bid to quell the violence.

Mr Bolton said that decision was "the best of a series of bad options", adding that he believed the decision to invade Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein was the right one, while admitting that mistakes had been made.

"In retrospect, we should have transferred authority to the Iraqis more quickly after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein," Mr Bolton said, adding: "We did the Iraqis a disservice by depriving them of political responsibilities."

As for who led the country now, Mr Bolton said Washington had no interest in any particular set-up.

"Whether it is one state or three states, whether it is led by the Shi'ites or by a coalition, is not a matter for our strategic interest," he said.

_{"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"}

Baghdad | January 29

Daily Times(Pakistan) - A prominent Shiite leader said Monday that setting up federal regions in Iraq would solve the country’s problems, adding that Shiites are being subjected to mass killings but they should not retaliate by using violence.

Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Shiite bloc in the 275-member parliament, was speaking at a Shiite mosque in central Baghdad to mark Ashoura, one of the holiest days in the Shiite calendar commemorating the 7th century death of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH)’s grandson Imam Hussein. Thousands of people dressed in black in a sign of mourning attended the ceremony at the Khulani Mosque.
more at link

_{"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"}

_{1. Full Transcript: NPR Interview with President Bush}

The following is a full transcript of NPR's interview with President George W. Bush, conducted by Juan Williams on Monday, Jan. 29, 2007.

JUAN WILLIAMS: Mr. President, we can't say thank you enough for giving NPR this time, so thank you.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: You bet....[]

PRESIDENT BUSH: Well, there's a lot of strong opinions about it. My attitude is – my feeling to the Senate echoes what Joe Lieberman said the other day – Senator Joe Lieberman – and that is it is ironic that the Senate would vote 81 to nothing to send a general into Iraq who believes he needs more troops to do the job and then send a contradictory message. The legislatures will – legislators will do what they feel like they've got to do, and, you know, we want to work with them as best we can to make it clear what the stakes of failure will be, and also make it clear to them that I think they have a responsibility to make sure our troops have what they need to do the missions.

MR. WILLIAMS: Well, another question about Vice President Cheney – he said last week that – here I'm quoting – "we've encountered enormous successes and we continue to have enormous successes in Iraq." Two weeks ago you said, quote, "there hadn't been enough success in Iraq." So it sounds like there's a conflicting message there.

PRESIDENT BUSH: Oh, I don't think so. I think that the vice president is a person reflecting a half-glass-full mentality, and that is he's been able to look at – as have I, and I hope other Americans have – the fact that the tyrant was removed, 12 million people voted, there is an Iraqi constitution in place that is a model for – and unique for the Middle East.

I will tell you, 2005 was a great year for freedom, and then the enemy took a good look and said, what do we need to do to stop the advance of freedom, and 2006 was a tough year. And I have said that the progress is not good enough. In other words, people have asked me about whether or not I approve of the situation in Iraq and my answer is no. ....

_{2. Lieberman might support Republican for White House(AP)}
...
Speaking of which politician he may support in 2008, Lieberman said, “Obviously, the positions that some candidates have taken in Iraq troubles me. Obviously, I will be looking at what positions they take in the larger war against Islamist terrorism.”

He added, “I am genuinely an independent. I agree more often than not with Democrats on domestic policy. I agree more often than not with Republicans on foreign and defense policy.”

The senator said he wanted to select someone “I believe is best for the future of our country. ... Party is important, but more important is the national interest. And that's the basis that I will decide whom to support for president.”...

_{"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"}

also posted by Chickadee - editors

US must abandon Iraqi cities or face nightmare scenario, say experts

The Independent, By Rupert Cornwell, Jan 30

Washington - The US must draw up plans to deal with an all-out Iraqi civil war that would kill hundreds of thousands, create millions of refugees, and could spill over into a regional catastrophe, disrupting oil supplies and setting up a direct confrontation between Washington and Iran.

This is the central recommendation of a study by the Brookings Institution here, based on the assumption that President Bush's last-ditch troop increase fails to stabilise the country - but also on the reality that Washington cannot simply walk away from the growing disaster unleashed by the 2003 invasion.

Even the US staying to try to contain the fighting, said Kenneth Pollack, one of the report's authors, "would consign Iraqis to a terrible fate. Even if it works, we will have failed to provide the Iraqis with the better future we promised." But it was the "least bad option" open to the US to protect its national interests in the event of full-scale civil war.

US troops, says the study, should withdraw from Iraqi cities. This was "the only rational course of action, horrific though it will be", as America refocused its efforts from preventing civil war to containing its effects.

US 'victory' against cult leader was 'massacre'
By Patrick Cockburn in Baghdad
Published: 31 January 2007

There are growing suspicions in Iraq that the official story of the battle outside Najaf between a messianic Iraqi cult and the Iraqi security forces supported by the US, in which 263 people were killed and 210 wounded, is a fabrication. The heavy casualties may be evidence of an unpremeditated massacre.

A picture is beginning to emerge of a clash between an Iraqi Shia tribe on a pilgrimage to Najaf and an Iraqi army checkpoint that led the US to intervene with devastating effect. The involvement of Ahmed al-Hassani (also known as Abu Kamar), who believed himself to be the coming Mahdi, or Messiah, appears to have been accidental.

The story emerging on independent Iraqi websites and in Arabic newspapers is entirely different from the government's account of the battle with the so-called "Soldiers of Heaven", planning a raid on Najaf to kill Shia religious leaders.

more

BBC, Jan 31

Millions of dollars in US rebuilding funds have been wasted in Iraq, US auditors say in a report which warns corruption in the country is rife.

A never-used camp in Baghdad for police trainers with an Olympic-size swimming pool is one of the examples highlighted in the quarterly audit.

Billions of budgeted dollars meanwhile remain unspent by Iraq's government.

The report comes as President Bush is urging Congress to approve $1.2bn (£600m) in further reconstruction aid.

Feb 1, 2007

Page 1 of 2
AFGHANISTAN'S HIGHWAY TO HELL
The Taliban's flower power
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KABUL - Western officials involved in counter-narcotics operations in Afghanistan estimate that this year the country will produce its biggest poppy crop in history.

Nevertheless, Taliban-dominated Helmand province, which contributes a major chunk in poppy cultivation, houses drug-processing labs and serves as a main route for trafficking and

Click here!

transportation, will be largely spared anti-narcotics operations.

In Helmand, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will be preoccupied with an expected major Taliban offensive come spring, rather than with drug-eradication programs.

The United Nations estimates that Afghanistan's opium production jumped by nearly 50% in 2006 to a record 6,100 tonnes to supply more than 90% of the world's heroin. About a third of the country's economy was based on opium last year. Of the 164,700 hectares of poppies that were cultivated in 2006, 70,000 hectares were in Helmand province, according to UN figures.

Sitting in a heated room of the British task force's base in Helmand near the provincial capital Lashkar Gah, a British anti-narcotics officer spread a map detailing just what a drug heaven Helmand is.

"Undoubtedly, Afghanistan will produce its best bumper poppy crop ever this year, but there is no shortcut to control this monster," said the official, who asked not to be named.

"At least, it will take three to five years for any significant reduction, given that development projects are launched and the people are provided alternative means of earning a livelihood and if the security situation is improved."

The official added that one cannot expect any improvement in the poppy situation when security is such a problem and counter-narcotics teams cannot operate freely. "You need to understand that in Thailand it took 30 years to make counter-narcotics operations successful," said the official.

The official said he believed that spraying is not an option as it can make people and animals ill.

more
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IB01Df03.html

New York Times, Carl Hulse & Thom Shanker, Jan 31

WASHINGTON, Jan. 30 — The Bush administration’s allies in the Senate began a major effort on Tuesday to prevent a potentially embarrassing rejection of the president’s plan to push 20,000 more troops into Iraq.

With the Senate expected to reach votes on possible resolutions sometime next week, the signs of the new campaign seeped out after a weekly closed-door lunch in which Republican senators engaged in what participants described as a heated debate over how to approach the issue.

The new effort by President Bush’s allies, including Senators John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, is aimed at blocking two nonbinding resolutions directly critical of the White House that had appeared to be gaining broad support among Democrats and even some Republicans.

Republicans skeptical of the troop buildup said some of their colleagues had begun to suggest that opponents of the White House plan ran the risk of undermining Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus, the new military commander in Iraq, as well as Mr. Bush.

“There is a lot of pressure on people who could be with us not to be with us,” said Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, the co-author of one resolution along with Senators John W. Warner, Republican of Virginia, and Ben Nelson, Democrat of Nebraska.

MIL-IRAQ-US-UNIFORMS
US army uniforms found in warehouse east of Baghdad -- statement

BAGHDAD, Jan 31 (KUNA) -- Joint Iraqi and US troops found uniforms identical to those worn by the US marines in a warehouse east of the capital, revealed a statement by the US army Wednesday.

The statement quoted a US army captain as saying the equipment and uniforms found were enough to supply a whole army battalion.

Last week, some US troops were attacked in Karbala, southern Baghdad, by gunmen in US military uniforms driving similar military vehicles to those of the marines. Five marines were killed.

The policy which prevents Iraqi forces from checking the IDs of US troops at security checkpoints proved to be fatal for the American forces.

Meanwhile, three marines were killed during an operation in Al-Anbar, western Iraq, said a statement by the US army which did not reveal any further information about the incident.

With the recent casualties, the number of US marines killed in January comes up to 82.(end) ahh.
gta
KUNA 311425 Jan 07NNNN

http://www.kuna.net.kw/home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=947804

Report: NATO, U.S. Neglect "Psychological Warfare"

Last Update: 1/31/2007 8:00:26 AM

Iraq Videos: General: Iraq strategy needs time | Iraqi leader wants more troops | More violence to come? | Saddam aides executed | Saddam video investigated | Violence in Iraq following hanging | Saddam prosecutor nearly stopped execution | Sunnis flock to Saddam's grave | Saddam taunts executioners | Saddam's execution | Iraqi TV raw footage | Saddam Hussein profile

LONDON (Reuters) - The United States and its allies must pay more attention to 'psychological warfare' as they battle insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, an influential think-tank said on Wednesday.

"Insurgents and jihadists have proved adept at conducting successful information campaigns that reach a global audience and foment violence elsewhere," the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said.

"But Western militaries have shown insufficient capability in their own attempts to carry out information and psychological operations, its annual report, "The Military Balance," said.

The IISS said it was not enough for Western armies to distribute leaflets telling the local population "we are here to help" or to put out the message that "life is getting better."

"In reality, life may not be getting better and in the eyes of the target audience the military presence could be contributing to the problem," it said.

In Afghanistan, frequent announcements by NATO forces of how many local fighters they had killed could be counter-productive because, for the Taliban, "death is a form of victory."

"Using 'body count' as a measure of effect has a very different impact within the area of operations than it does with a home audience," the report said.

"The psychological effect at home is one of military success and may generate political support. In the theater of operations the opposite may be true, with every publicly announced kill delivering more willing recruits to the cause."

more

9 suspects hauled in by police in what was described as a "terrorist plot to kidnap and behead" a UK soldier on leave from Iraq. What do you wager that this "terrorist plot" has in fact something to do with people seeking revenge for an act either committed by the soldier in question, or by his unit, in or round the Basra area? Serious stuff, surely, but more from the standpoint of "bringing the war home", if my hypothesis is correct, and where somebody within Iraq grassed out the soldier, and anti-US/UK sympathisers in the UK decided to take him down in a dramatic fashion, based on ID information coming from Iraq. The notion of some poor uniformed sod being selected at random for ritual beheading and videotaping just doesn't seem to wash. Well, anything to take the heat off Blair and the cash-for-honours scandal about to engulf him and many of his staff.

Afghan assembly grants immunity for war crimes
Thu Feb 1, 2007 4:51 AM ET

By Sayed Salahuddin

KABUL (Reuters) - Afghanistan's parliament has granted immunity to all Afghans involved in the country's 25 years of conflict, lawmakers said on Thursday, despite calls by human rights groups for war crimes trials.

The decision passed on Wednesday in the lower house, Wolesi Jirga, would also cover fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and former prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who now heads his own militant group, critics and supporters of the move said.

Rights groups have strongly pressed the government to punish those guilty of abuses, including some members of parliament and senior government officials, saying justice was vital for peace.

But the national assembly said its motion would help reconciliation in a nation shattered by years of war and civil strife that have left almost no family untouched by tragedy.

"In order to bring reconciliation among various strata in the society, all those political and belligerent sides who were involved one way or the other during the two-and-half decades of war will not be prosecuted legally and judicially," the motion passed by the assembly says.

The Wolesi Jirga elected in late 2005 includes former senior communist officials, ex-Mujahideen (holy warrior) leaders who fought the Soviets and some former Taliban.

Dozens are accused of human rights abuses.

Several lawmakers said President Hamid Karzai, who has led Afghanistan since the Taliban was ousted in 2001, knew of the assembly's move in advance.

"In a way, this provides immunity for all," Shukria Barakzai, a leading woman activist MP, told Reuters. She was among a small group of delegates who left the session in protest.

Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq, a former Mujahideen leader who was among the key legislators behind the amnesty, said it was in line with Karzai's efforts to push national reconciliation.

He also believed the immunity would cover Omar and Hekmatyar.

"This is a law and the law will be implemented on all individuals equally," he told Reuters.

The decision was approved days after Karzai again indicated he could consider talks with Taliban leaders to end the bloodshed after the country's most violent year since the Taliban's ouster.

One of Karzai's advisers on Wednesday clarified talks would not be held with the Taliban as a political, ideological or military group.

John Byrne

Published: Thursday February 1, 2007

Citing Pentagon officials, Fox News Channel is reporting that two Iraqi generals are suspected of complicity in a Jan. 20 attack in Karbala, Iraq that killed five US troops.

"There are 2 senior Iraq generals that US officials say are now suspect of involvement in an attack against American forces in Karbala on Jan. 20th," a Fox News host reported on air. "A number of people were killed. These gunmen apparently stormed an Iraqi security dressed like American soldiers and driving SUVs. So again, US officials are saying that 2 senior are suspected of taking part in an insurgent attack that killed 5 American soldiers."

(...)

"We have Pentagon officials telling us this was incredibly sophisticated orchestrated attack, at troubling attack from their perspective," Fox News Reporter Mike Emanuel reports live on air. "There's a great investigation underway trying to figure out exactly how this happened and who may have been behind it. There is some suggestion due to the level of sophistication, planning, coordination, perhaps Iranian agents had been involved in some way. Now we have sources telling us that at least 2 top iraqi generals are the center of this investigation being looked at to see if whether they may not be loyal allies ot the united states, after all. Whether they may be traitors in betraying US forces serving in Iraq trying to help their country."

( ... Link ... )

can do this too- as in refusing to believe in Stalin's gulags. not just because it was dissonant with their existing ideas, but because the Right was pitching it big time.

Well it's a stange thing to hope for, but I hope this "generals" story is true as it makes more sense to me- but hope ain't evidence.

_{"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"}

BREAKING: Iraq Escalation Could Be Twice As Large As Bush Claimed

A study released today by the Congressional Budget Office shows that the real troop increase associated with President Bush’s escalation policy could be as high as 48,000, more than double the 21,500 soldiers that Bush has claimed.

As DefenseTech notes, extra forces are expected because the combat units being sent into Iraq “need to be backed up by support troops, ‘including personnel to staff headquarters, serve as military police, and provide communications, contracting, engineering, intelligence, medical, and other services.’” The CBO’s low estimate envisions at least 15,000 additional support personnel. The alternative scenario “would require about 28,000 support troops in addition to the 20,000 combat troops.”

Additionally, the cost of the escalation could be as much as five times higher than White House estimates:

Think Progress
more

Liz SLy | February 1 | Bahgdad

Chicago Tribune - Alarmed by rising tensions between the United States and Iran, Iraqi government officials fear their country is in danger of being dragged into the middle of a new conflict between its two main allies.

In the past week, the Bush administration has ratcheted up pressure on Iran, saying it has evidence that Tehran is arming Iraqi insurgents and pledging to hunt down Iranian agents operating in Iraq. That has fueled concerns in Baghdad that Iraq will become the battleground in a showdown between Iran and the U.S., Iraqi officials say.

Iraq's Shiite-led government has warm relations with neighboring Iran, and it does not want that relationship compromised by an increasingly strident posture by Washington toward Tehran, Iraqi officials say.

"We want to maintain good relations with our neighbors, especially Iran," Iraqi government spokesman Ali al- Dabbagh told a news conference Thursday in Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone. "We have long borders with them, we have local interests with [them] and we would like to have this relationship not in the shadow of the others."

Iraq also wants to maintain good relations with the U.S., he added, stressing that Iraq does not condone attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq. "We want good relations with everyone, whether Iran or the U.S.," he said. "The problems between the U.S. and Iran must not get solved in Iraq."

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated sharply in recent weeks, with the dispatch of additional U.S. warships to the Persian Gulf and the deployment of upgraded Patriot missiles to Gulf Arab countries, fueling speculation across the region that the U.S. is gearing up for a war with Iran.

Bush administration officials insist they do not intend to go to war with Iran. They have defended the targetting of Iranians in Iraq and other moves in the region as necessary to counter Tehran's backing of Iraqi insurgents, which coincides with U.S. efforts to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

"We've been very clear we don't intend to strike into Iran, in terms of what we're doing in Iraq," Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told National Public Radio Thursday.

But Iraq's concern is that the U.S. is taking advantage of its presence in Iraqi territory to rein in Iran's rising influence in the region, Iraqi officials say. Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Times reported that the U.S. Air Force is preparing to undertake more aggressive patrols along the Iraq-Iran border to disrupt insurgent supply lines.

"Any escalation between Iran and the U.S. will be negative for us," said Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish legislator. "If you exclude the Sunnis, the majority of Iraqis think of Iran as a friend."

Many members of Iraq's Shiite-led government sought refuge in Iran from persecution during the Saddam Hussein era and Iraqi officials regularly visit Tehran. Iran's ambassador to Iraq told The New York Times earlier this week that Iran is preparing a major new military and economic assistance package for Iraq—paralleling the Bush administration's strategy to stabilize Iraq by building up the Iraqi army and police while re-energizing its reconstruction effort.

In many ways, Iraq is already serving as a proxy front in the rivalry for regional influence between Tehran and Washington. The U.S. military raided a diplomatic compound in Erbil last month, detaining five Iranians they accused of being Iranian agents aiding insurgents in Iraq. The Bush administration says it is examining a "mountain of evidence" that Iran is arming Shiite militias to attack U.S. forces.

"To the extent that anybody, including Iranians, are smuggling weapons, bringing in fighters, killing Americans, trying to destabilize the democracy in Iraq, we will take appropriate measures to defend our troops and also to defend the mission," White House spokesman Tony Snow warned this week.

Bush first announced a more aggressive stance toward Iran and also Syria when he unveiled his new strategy for Iraq last month, accusing the two countries of aiding Iraq's insurgency and implicitly rejecting recommendations by the Iraq Study Group that the U.S. open a dialogue with Iran.

Plans to announce further evidence of Iran's support for Iraqi insurgents this week have been postponed, amid reports of disputes among U.S. officials over the quality of the evidence.

The Iraqi government has also tried to make it clear that it does not support Iranian meddling in Iraq. When Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visited Tehran last fall, he urged his hosts not to intervene in Iraqi affairs.

In an interview with CNN Wednesday, al-Maliki said he had asked both Tehran and Washington to resolve their differences elsewhere.

"We have told the Iranians and the Americans, 'We know that you have a problem with each other, but we are asking you: Please solve your problems outside Iraq,'" said al-Maliki. "We don't want the American forces to take Iraq as a field to attack Iran or Syria."

Any conflict between Iran and the U.S. would put Iraq's government in a difficult position, forced to choose between its two main benefactors, said Othman.

"There's a contradiction because America sees Iran as an enemy, whereas the Iraqi government sees Iran as a friend," he said. "The most important country with influence in Iraq right now is Iran, and these issues should be well and thoroughly discussed between America and Iraq."

The increasingly tough rhetoric from Washington has strained Iraq's relationship with the U.S. at the very moment when the two countries are supposed to be working together to implement Bush's new strategy to stabilize Iraq.

An additional 21,500 U.S. troops are headed for Baghdad and western Anbar province to bolster a new security plan aimed at quelling the steadily escalating sectarian conflict between the city's Shiites and Sunnis and combating the anti-U.S. insurgency.

Support for al-Maliki's government lies at the core of Bush's new strategy, but Washington does not consult with the Iraqi government on its threats to pursue Iranians in Iraq, complained Akram Hakim, State Minister of National Reconciliation, who belongs to the ruling Shiite coalition, the United Iraqi Alliance.

"President Bush says he supports the Iraqi government and he says he supports Prime Minister al-Maliki, but I think that going over the head of the Iraqi government on issues like this is not compatible with those statements," he said.

"When there's a contradiction between what he's doing and what he's saying, it will weaken the Iraqi government and weaken the position of the U.S. administration as well."

"For some time, we in the Iraqi government have been warning about turning Iraq into a battlefield between the U.S. and Iran," he added. "There are many problems between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. and Syria and the U.S. and Al Qaeda, and we don't want them to make Iraq the battlefield for these problems."

_{"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"}

Taliban militants overrun Afghan town
(AP)
Updated: 2007-02-03 09:00

KABUL, Afghanistan - Hundreds of Taliban militants overran a southern Afghan town that British troops left after a contentious peace agreement in October, destroying the government center and temporarily holding elders hostage, officials and residents said Friday.

The assault, days after a Taliban commander was killed outside the town of Musa Qala, raises doubts about the future of the peace deal, which has been criticized by some Western officials as a NATO retreat in hostile Taliban territory.

Two residents of Musa Qala estimated that between 200 and 300 Taliban fighters had overtaken the town. They said the fighters took weapons from the police on Wednesday and destroyed the town's government center late Thursday.

Col. Tom Collins, a spokesman for NATO's International Security Assistance Force, said an "unknown number" of militants had entered Musa Qala. He said late Friday that no NATO-led forces were in the town.

British forces are based in Helmand province but left Musa Qala in October after a peace agreement was signed between elders and the Helmand governor. According to the deal, security was turned over to local leaders, while NATO forces were prevented from entering the town.

Some Western officials complained that the deal put the area, which had been a center for clashes between British troops and resurgent Taliban militants, outside of government and NATO control.

Asadullah Wafa, the governor of Helmand province, said the militants destroyed part of the compound housing the district's governor and police. "People have closed down the shops this morning and those living near the area have moved out of fear," he said.

Mohammad Wali, a resident of Musa Qala who estimated that between 200 and 300 fighters were in town, said residents feared fighting between NATO and militants would resume. Raz Mohammad, another resident, said the Taliban had taken about 12 town elders hostage. Collins said there were indications the elders were now safe.

Late last month, NATO said an airstrike outside of Musa Qala destroyed a Taliban command post, killing a senior militant leader and a number of his deputies. NATO said the Jan. 25 airstrike "was outside the area of the agreement" and did not violate it.

However, Wafa said the Taliban told a gathering of elders last week that they considered the airstrike a violation, and it appeared the assault was in retaliation.

more

Washington (Reuters, Feb 4) - US INTELLIGENCE has concluded that key elements of Iraq's violence have risen to the level of "civil war", in a report that the White House says justifies a troop increase and Democrats say is proof of a failed strategy.

Escalating violence between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites met the definition for a civil war but the politically charged term did not describe all the chaos in Iraq, the report said.

Reflecting the consensus views of Washington's intelligence community, the report also suggested that the President's strategy for controlling Iraqi violence must show progress within 12 to 18 months or risk further deterioration.

George Bush plans to send another 21,500 US troops to quell the violence, especially in Baghdad, as part of a joint operation with Iraqi forces. But the National Intelligence Estimate said Iraqi security forces would be hard-pressed to undertake security responsibilities or operate independently against Shiite militias.

Al Qaeda-linked group says will widen Iraq attacks
03 Feb 2007 13:35:15 GMT

DUBAI, Feb 3 (Reuter) - An Iraqi militant group linked to al Qaeda vowed on Saturday to widen its attacks to all parts of Iraq instead of just focusing on Baghdad, after Washington announced plans to beef up its forces in the capital.

The leader of the self-styled Islamic State in Iraq, a body set up by al Qaeda's Iraq wing and other Sunni militant groups in October, said in a Web recording the campaign would stop only "when (U.S. President George W.) Bush signs a surrender accord".

"We today announce a strategy ... which is wider and wiser with God's power. It does not involve Baghdad alone but all parts of the Islamic state," said the speaker, identified as Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, leader of the group.

In January Bush said he would send 21,500 additional U.S. soldiers to Iraq in an effort to crack down on sectarian killings and insurgent attacks, especially in Baghdad.

Baghdadi said Bush was giving Muslim fighters a chance "to slaughter the wounded crusader giant and take advantage of the collapsing morale of its soldiers and commanders".

The authenticity of the tape could not be verified, but it was posted on Web sites used by al Qaeda and other insurgent groups in Iraq.

Baghdadi called on other Sunni Muslim militant groups to join his "state" to unify insurgent ranks.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L03216756.htm

By Pepe Escobar

The massacre that occurred in Najaf, Iraq, last Sunday by now has been wildly deconstructed over the Arab press. What emerges has virtually nothing to do with the official Baghdad and Washington spin of Iraqi troops killing 250-odd heavily armed apocalyptic cultists dubbed "Soldiers of Heaven". They were said to be about to attack not only Shi'ite pilgrims but also the "Big Four" ayatollahs of Iraq - Ali al-Sistani, Bashir Najafi, Muhammad shaq Fayyad and Muhammad Said al-Hakim - who all sit in holy Najaf.

When the embattled Nuri al-Maliki government in Baghdad gloats in unison with the Pentagon and US President George W Bush about such a masterful display by the Iraqi army, supported by the lethal firepower of US tanks and F-16s, something is terribly off the mark. Especially as the "Iraqi army" in question is composed in its majority by the Badr Organization, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq's (SCIRI's) paramilitary wing, which is peppered with death squads.

Najaf Governor As'ad Abu Gilel, a high-ranking SCIRI politician himself, has told Najaf Radio FM that no fewer than "300 terrorists were killed, 650 detained and 121 wounded, while 11 Iraqi soldiers were killed and 27 wounded". One thousand "terrorist" casualties suggest firepower comparable to the US raids in Tora Bora, Afghanistan, in December 2001.

The official Baghdad spin maintains that the battle was provoked by an evil mastermind, Ayatollah Ahmad al-Hasani al-Sarkhi, also called al-Yamani, born in Diwaniya, a charlatan with a background in fine arts and the leader of the Mahdi Mahdawiya millenarian movement (a splinter Sadrist movement). It's important to note that his offices in Najaf were closed 10 days before the massacre, and many of his aides arrested: this already suggests a government crackdown preceding the upcoming US surge/escalation.

The Najaf governor's first intervention was to scream that Najaf was being attacked by al-Qaeda. Official spin painted the guerrillas as Sunni Arabs sprinkled with al-Qaeda-style Arab Afghans. Muaffaq al-Rubaii, Iraq's national security adviser, was quick to announce that "hundreds of Arabs" - he mentioned Saudis, Yemenis, Egyptians and Afghans - had been killed. Then the Najaf governor said that "British and Arab passports" were found in the battlefield, proving interference by "a certain neighboring Arab country" (he didn't specify which). And finally, he decided to change his story from al-Qaeda to the "Soldiers of Heaven", fanatical Shi'ites who happened to be supported during the 1990s by none other than Saddam Hussein and were now being helped by evil Ba'athists.

In this sorry attempt by the Iraqi government to create a one-size-fits-all conspiracy (Saddamists, al-Qaeda and Iranian fanatics all in cahoots), the main problem is how to fit in current US anti-Iran hysteria. The Mahdawiya have never had anything to do with Iran. This is a nationalist Iraqi group: no wonder they are fiercely opposed to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who is Iranian, born in Sistan-Balochistan province.

According to Abu al-Hasan, a Mahdawiya member close to Sarkhi, quoted by London-based Al-Hayat, the accusations of a planned ayatollah massacre in Najaf are nothing but lies. Hasan said what happened was that Iraqi police tried to arrest Sarkhi, his followers revolted, and that led to the massacre.

Religiously, it's important to note that the Shi'ite clerical aristocracy in Najaf - of which Sistani is the epitome - does not like being challenged, be it by the Sadrists or, worse even, by a splinter group. In parallel, Arab Shi'ites all over southern Iraq prefer to trust an Arab marja (senior spiritual leader) in Najaf, and not a Persian (Sistani).

But according to Arab reports, the traveling Shi'ite pilgrims were not Mahdawiya, but were from the al-Hawatim tribe, which lives between Najaf and Diwaniyah. The chief of the tribe, Hajji Sa'ad Sa'ad Nayif al-Hatemi, was killed along with his wife and driver at the Zarga checkpoint near Najaf. So the tribe - fully armed of course, the only way to travel in "liberated" nighttime Iraq - revolted (that explains the weapons; the "Soldiers of Heaven", depicted as a scruffy bunch, could never have been so well armed).

Another tribe, al-Khazaali - who actually live in Zarga - tried to stop the fight and got entangled in the whole mess, just as the checkpoint police screamed to their commanders in Baghdad over the phone that they were being attacked by "al-Qaeda". The US cavalry arrived like clockwork, raising the appropriate hell.

So the pilgrims may have been killed by US air fire. But that does not explain the officially sanctioned released photos. Eerily, there are no signs of blood, bullet wounds or burning in these bodies.

(snip)

Furthermore, the massacre also signals that the Pentagon is now linked to killing Arab Shi'ite tribes. If this is true, it is a big mistake. Sistani does not control them anymore. This means more and more revengeful, nationalist Arab Shi'ites will be amplifying another anti-US/Baghdad guerrilla front.

Take the example of the Beni Tamim, a mixed Sunni and Shi'ite tribe. Their sheikh, 70-year-old Hamid al-Suhail, was killed one month ago in Baghdad by a death squad. Revenge is inevitable. Anti-US and anti-Baghdad guerrillas in southern Iraq have been spreading like wildfire since November.

The model is to be found in modern history: the Shi'ite resistance that from the 1920s to the 1930s fought and kicked out the British. Southern Shi'ite tribal chiefs are going for a united, Sunni and Shi'ite muqawama (resistance). The Bush administration is reaping the kind of Iraqi chaos it craves: yet one more civil war - of (Arab) Shi'ites against ("Persian") Shi'ites.

more by Pepi Escobar, Asian Times

----

Escobar claims it was not a cult group. If he is correct, this is a scary development. Shiite tribes and Sunnis are combining to fight against the government of Iraq and it sounds like this group would be killing US troops. The good news from an American perspecative is this group will not ally itself with Iran.

By Seattle Times news services

Feb 4

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- A truck loaded with 1 ton of explosives blew up a crowded central Baghdad marketplace Saturday, killing more than 130 people and wounding at least 305.

The bombing in the mostly Shiite Sadriyah neighborhood was the deadliest in Iraq since the 2003 invasion and the third in less than a month that killed more than 70 people.

Sunni insurgents are suspected of unleashing the latest wave of violence against Shiite Muslim neighborhoods before they go underground as U.S. and Iraqi troops begin the latest security plan backed by President Bush and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Government officials said the deadly payload -- land mines, ammunition, rockets, mortars and other explosives -- was packed into a parked fuel tanker and was detonated by remote control. However, police and witness accounts said the blast was caused by a suicide bomber who disguised his cargo with boxes of oil and flour.

"We don't allow big trucks in the market, but the driver convinced us that he had food to deliver for a shop. Once he got inside, he detonated the bomb," vegetable vendor Kamil Ibrahim, 36, said from a local hospital.

Continued

9 U.S. Soldiers Killed North of Baghdad

Tuesday March 6, 2007 12:31 PM

AP Photo BAG118

By LAUREN FRAYER

Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Nine American soldiers died in two separate incidents north of the capital, the U.S. military announced Tuesday, in the deadliest single day for U.S. troops in Iraq in nearly a month.

Six soldiers were killed when a bomb exploded near their vehicles during a combat operation Monday in Salahuddin province, the military said in a statement.

In another incident the same day, three more soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb in Diyala province, another statement said.

Monday was ``a very traumatic day'' for U.S. troops in Iraq, said Lt. Col. Michael Donnelly, a spokesman for U.S. forces in northern Iraq.

``Our hearts and prayers are with the families right now in their time of loss, and our resolve is stronger to accomplish our mission here,'' Donnelly said.

It was the deadliest day for Americans in Iraq since Feb. 7, when 11 troops were killed - seven when their helicopter was shot down north of Fallujah and four others in combat operations.

The highest daily U.S. death toll since the Iraq war began was on Jan. 26, 2005, when 37 Americans died in attacks.

Both provinces where Monday's deaths occurred are Sunni-dominated. Saddam Hussein's clan hails from Salahuddin, and the late al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was hiding out in Diyala when he was killed by a U.S. airstrike there last summer.

Violence has fallen in Baghdad, where a joint U.S.-Iraqi security crackdown was in its third week. But U.S. military officials say insurgents have fled the capital for outlying areas, where attacks are on the rise.

more

Attacks kill 112 Shi'ite pilgrims in Iraq

By Habib al-Zubaidi
Reuters
Tuesday, March 6, 2007; 12:57 PM

HILLA, Iraq (Reuters) - Insurgents killed 112 Shi'ite pilgrims heading for the holy Iraqi city of Kerbala on Tuesday, including nearly 80 after two suicide bombers blew themselves up in one crowded street lined with tents.

The attacks, just over a year since the bombing of a Shi'ite shrine in the city of Samarra, are likely to increase sectarian tensions between majority Shi'ites and Sunni Arabs that are pushing the country to the brink of all-out civil war.

In the worst incident, two suicide bombers strapped with explosives detonated themselves in the city of Hilla, south of Baghdad, killing 78 people, police said. Tents offering food, drink and resting areas for the pilgrims lined the busy street.

"I saw one of the suicide bombers. He was about 40-years-old. He blew himself up and I saw parts of bodies flying around," a witness, who declined to give him name, told Reuters.

Another witness described scenes of chaos, with sandals and tattered clothes lying among pools of blood and tents on fire.

"I watched the second bomber run into the crowd and blow himself up. Everyone around him was shredded to pieces," the witness told Reuters as he sobbed.

Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki blamed Sunni militants and supporters of former president Saddam Hussein for the "barbaric crime," according to a statement from his office.

President Bush insisted on Tuesday a new security plan in Baghdad was making gradual progress, despite the killing of nine U.S. troops north of the capital in two separate bomb attacks on Monday.

More than 3,185 American soldiers have died in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003.

Defending his plans to deploy 21,500 more U.S. troops to Iraq, Bush said in a speech to the American Legion veterans organization: "The mission is America's mission and our failure would be America's failure."

Security in Hilla had been tight for fear of a repetition of suicide bombings and attacks against Shi'ite religious rituals by suspected Sunni insurgents of the sort that killed 171 people in Baghdad and Kerbala in March 2004.

Insurgents also launched attacks against pilgrims in and around Baghdad, defying again Maliki's crackdown.

Among those other attacks, a car bomb in the southern Baghdad district of Doura killed 12 people, police said.

STREAMS OF PILGRIMS

Masses of Shi'ite pilgrims are heading on foot and buses to Kerbala to commemorate Arbain, the end of a 40-day mourning period since Ashura, which marks the death of Prophet Mohammad's grandson in 680. Kerbala, one the holiest cities in Shi'ite Islam lies 110 km (68 miles) south of Baghdad. Hilla is nearby.

The attacks come just over a year since the February 22 bombing of a Shi'ite shrine in the city of Samarra. That attack, blamed on Sunni al Qaeda, unleashed the wave of sectarian violence that threatens to tear Iraq apart.

more