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2006 Subprime Loans: Worst Performing Loans EVERFor economic and market comment and analysis, go to the bonddad blog
Let's look at that last statement: "Worst performing loans, EVER. That means that in the rush to cash in on the housing bubble, lenders lowered standards to such a degree as to hurt their own business - possibly to the point of bankruptcy:
So -- how are these loans actually performing?
Those above figures indicate credit underwriting standards were non-existent for at least the last year, and possibly longer.
Here's where the real rub comes in. Individual loans are sold up the financial food chain to larger and larger institutions. Basically, your local bank sells your loan to larger institutions. These institutions then pool your loan with other loans of similar size, maturity and interest rate. These pools are then "securitized", meaning they are essentially made into bonds and sold on the open market to pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds who essentially treat these loans as bonds in their respective portfolio. Theoretically, this helps to diversify risk. For example, suppose California loans have a high rate of default. If a pool of mortgages has a high percentage of California loans then that particular pool is obviously in trouble. However, if the California loans are a small part of a larger pool of mortgages from other areas of the country then a default on the California loan isn't that big a deal. However, there are no uniform standards for underwriting these pools. And there's another catch. If the loans start performing poorly within a certain time frame, the purchaser can sell the loan back to the originator.
This is why we've seen three major sub-prime lenders go bankrupt in the last two months. They were all forced to buy-back poor performing loans. The originators didn't have the money to make all the purchases. As a result they were forced into bankruptcy. The sub-prime story is just beginning to play out. As with most all things economic, we'll have to wait and see how this plays out in the larger economy. However, these developments certainly don't help. Bonddad January 29, 2007 - 8:28am
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